Sustainable Bioenergy and

Environmental Aspects

An IEA Perspective

© OECD/IEA 2010

An IEA Perspective

Paolo Frankl

Head, Renewable Energy Division

International Energy Agency

Sustainable bioenergy:

sowing the seeds of sustainable development

Rome, 10 November 2011

Topics

� Current Trends in Biomass for Energy

� The Role of Bioenergy in a Sustainable Energy

Future

� IEA Roadmaps on Biofuels and Bioenergy

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

Trends in Biomass Energy Supply

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

� Bioenergy today provides around 10% of global

primary energy supply

� Most of it, however, is inefficient, traditional

biomass

Recent Trends in Bioelectricity

Production

100

150

200

250

300

TW

h

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0

50

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

United States Germany China Brazil Japan RoW

•Growth particularly strong in Germany and China

•Bioenergy provides around 1.3% of electricity today

Recent Trends in Biofuels Production

20

30

40

50

60

Mto

e

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0

10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Brazil bioethanol US bioethanol EU-27 biodiesel RoW biofuels

•Production concentrated in Brazil, US and EU

•Biofuels provide around 2% of transport fuels

(c. 3% of road transport fuels)

The IEA ETP 2010 Blue Map Scenario

Towards a Low Carbon Future

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

� Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy

and climate policies

� BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by

2050 through CO2-price and strong support policies

� Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps

� Bioenergy contributes in all four end-use sectors

[ETP 2010]

Key Technologies for Reducing Global

CO2 Emissions

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Gt

CO

2

CCS 19%

Renewables 17%

Nuclear 6%

Power generation efficiency

and fuel switching 5%

Baseline emissions 57 Gt

© OECD/IEA 2010

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A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce

energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

and fuel switching 5%

End-use fuel switching 15%

End-use fuel and electricity

efficiency 38%

BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt

WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis

[ETP 2010]

Biofuels Contribution to Emission

Reductions in the Transport Sector

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© IEA/OECD 2011

� Efficiency improvements are the most important low-cost measure to

reduce transport emissions.

� Biofuels can reduce global transport emissions by 2.1 Gt CO2-eq. in

2050.

� To achieve these reductions, all biofuels must provide considerable

life-cycle GHG emission reductions.

Final Biomass Use by Sector in ETP

2010� Biomass currently provides around 910 Mtoe (38 EJ) of final energy

per year

� 200 Mtoe (8.3 EJ)/yr of commercial heat and power and 53

Mtoe (2.2 EJ)/yr of liquid transport fuels

� Traditional biomass accounts for over 670 Mtoe (28 EJ)/yr

� In BLUE Map final biomass use increases to around 1850 Mtoe

(78EJ)/yr in 2050.

� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomass

© OECD/IEA 2010

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� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomass

[ETP 2010]0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Mto

e

Transport

Buildings - solid

biomassBuildings - l iquid and

gaseous biomass

Non-energy use

Public CHP

Industry

Electricity

IEA Roadmaps - Bioenergy

� Roadmaps are intended to:

� Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon

technologies, consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

� Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term

milestones, including:

� Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these

� Identify key conversion pathways

� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability

� Identify market requirements and policy needs

� Define international collaboration needs

� Biofuels for Transport

� Published April 2011

� Bioenergy for Heat and Power

� Work in progress

� Published Spring 2012

Global Biomass Potential

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

� A considerable potential of “low risk” biomass sources has been assessed

� 145 EJ of sustainable biomass primary energy supply could come entirely

from residues, wastes, and sustainably grown energy crops

Source: Adapted from Dornburg

et al., 2008 and Bauen et al.,

2009, and supplemented with

data from IEA, 2010c.

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision

� Global biofuel supply grows

from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in

2050

� Biofuels share in total

transport fuel increases from

2% today, to 27% in 2050

� Diesel/kerosene-type

biofuels become particularly

Fin

al e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

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important to decarbonise

heavy transport modes

� Biofuels could reduce global

transport emissions by 2.1 Gt

CO2-eq. in 2050

� Large-scale deployment of

advanced biofuels will be

vital to meet the roadmap

targets

Fin

al e

ne

rgy

(E

J)

Land Requirements

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

� Land required to produce biofuels increases from 30 Mha today to 100 Mha

in 2050, in addition to 1 billion tons of residues

� Sustainable land expansion will be challenging given increasing demand

for food and biomaterial

� Sound policies are needed to ensure sustainability and mitigate risk of

indirect land-use change (ILUC)

� In the long-term, a sustainable land-use management for all agricultural and

forestry land is needed.

Note: This is gross land demand, excluding land-use reduction potential of co-products

Sustainability of Bioenergy – A focus on

environmental aspects

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© IEA/OECD 2011

� Lifecycle-GHG emission reductions, uncertain ILUC

� Land-use competition with other sectors (agriculture,

forestry, nature conservation etc.)

� Impact on biodiversity

� Water use (in cultivation and processing) is becoming an

increasingly important issue

� UNEP and IEA Bioenergy have recently published a

report on the issue

GHG-Reduction Potential of Biofuels

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

� Most biofuels can reduce GHG-emissions compared to gasoline/diesel

� To achieve GHG reductions, biofuels must be produced in an efficient way

� However, uncertainty on the impact of land-use change on GHG balance

remains

Measures to reduce environmental

impact of bioenergy production

� Pressure on agricultural land can be limited and risk of

ILUC can be mitigated through:

� Productivity improvements

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© IEA/OECD 2011

� Productivity improvements

� Efficient use of co-products (biorefinery concept)

� Use of residues and wastes as feedstock

� Biomass cascading

� Use of pasture/ unused land

� Land-use zoning and sustainable land-use management

schemes

Importance of Sustainability Criteria

� Sound policies are needed to ensure biomass for energy

is produced sustainably

� Adoption of internationally aligned sustainability

certification for all bioenergy based on internationally

agreed sustainability criteria such as those developed

© OECD/IEA 2010

© IEA/OECD 2011

agreed sustainability criteria such as those developed

by GBEP

� Ultimately, all agricultural and forestry products should

be certified