SYNDROMES under CLIMATE CHANGE

Matthias K. B. Lüdeke and the Syndrome GroupSYNDICATE

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Deforestation

Global Climate Change

Soil Degradation

Rural Poverty

The Syndrome approach

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

• Task: identify relevant problems of Global Environmental Change (GEC, including Climate Change) and provide policy recommendations for the German Government to mitigate them

• GEC is understood as part of Global Change (GC) –high complexity

• Reduction: typical patterns of problematic environmental changes and their drivers (Syndromes) as units of investigation

• Intermediate functional resolution

Symptoms: Elements of GC

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

BIOSPHÄRE ATMOSPHÄRE PEDOSPHÄRE

HYDROSPHÄRE WIRTSCHAFTBEVÖLKERUNG

PSYCHOSOZIALE SPHÄRE TECHNIK / WISSENSCHAFTGESELLSCHAFT. ORGANISATION

Automatisierung,Mechanisierung

MedizinischerFortschritt

Fortschritt in der Informationstechnologie

Verbesserung destechnischen Umweltschutzes

Entwicklung regenerativerEnergie und Rohstoffe

Entwicklung neuer Werkstoffe,stoffliche Substitution

Verstärkung desnationalen Umweltschutzes

Bedeutungszunahmeder NRO

DemokratisierungSoziale und ökonomischeAusgrenzung

Zunahme ethnischerund nationaler Konflikte

Institutionalisierungvon Sozialleistungen

Wissens- undTechnologietransferZunahme der internationalen

Abkommen und Institutionen

Sensibilisierung fürglobale Probleme

Ausbreitung westlicherKonsum- und Lebensstile

Anspruchssteigerung

Emanzipation der FrauIndividualisierung

WachsendesUmweltbewußtsein

Bevölkerungswachstum

Zunehmende Gesundheitsschädendurch Umweltbelastung

Urbanisierung

Erhöhung derMobilitätsbereitschaft

Landflucht

Zersiedelung

Internationale Migration

ZunehmenderTourismus

Tertiärisierung

Globalisierungder Märkte

InternationaleVerschuldung

Konversionnatürlicher ÖkosystemeFragmentierung

natürlicher Ökosysteme

Zunahme anthropogenerArtenverschleppung

Resistenzbildung

Schädigung von Ökosystem-struktur und-funktion

Verlust vonbiosphärischen Senken

Verstärkung vonbiosphärischen Quellen

Stoffliche Überlastungnatürlicher Ökosysteme

Zunehmende Übernutzungbiologischer Ressourcen

Gen- und Artenverluste

Meeresspiegelanstieg

Veränderung desGrundwasserspiegels

VerstärkterTreibhauseffekt

Troposphären-verschmutzung

Reduktionstratosphärischen Ozons

Zunehmende lokaleLuftverschmutzung

Änderung ozeanischerStrömungen

Veränderung derEiskappen und Gletscher

Süßwasserverknappung

Globaler und regionalerKlimawandel

Zunahme der internat. sozialenund ökonomischen Disparitäten

Intensivierung der

Ausbreitung derGeldwirtschaft

Zunahme umweltverträglicherWirtschaftsweisen

ZunehmenderProtektionismus

Fortschritt in der Bio- und Gentechnologie

Ausbau derVerkehrswege

WachsendesVerkersaufkommen

Rückgang dertraditionellen Landwirtschaft

Zentralisung Wirtschafts-politischer Strategien

Aufbau technischerGroßprojekte

Zunehmende Deposition undAkkumulation von Abfällen

VerdichtungVersauerung.Kontamination

Fertilitätsverlust(Humus, Nährstoffe)

Erosion,morhologische Änderungen

Versiegelung

Versalzung,Alkalisierung

Überdüngung

ZunehmendesPartizipationsinteresse

Rückgang traditionellergesellschaftlicher Strukturen

Intensivierung von Ausbildungund Qualifikation

Zunahme der strukturellenArbeitslosigkeit

Industrialisierung

Steigerung derRessourcenproduktivität

Steigerung derArbeitsproduktivität

Steigerung derKapitalintensität

Zunahme derWelthandelsströme

WachsendesTechnologierisiko

Zunahme fundamen-talistischer Strömungen

Steigerung derNahrungsmittelproduktion

Veränderung der Wasserqualität(Patogene, Nährstoffe, Toxine)

Veränderung derlokalen Wasserbilanz

Ausweitung landwirtschaftlichgenutzter Flächen

Zunehmender Verbrauch vonEnergie und Rohstoffen

Veränderte Frachten vonpartikulären & gelösten Stoffen

Intensivierung der Landwirtschaft

Symptomsammlung zum Globalen Wandel

Stand: 1999

Politikversagen

Environmental degradation by rural-poverty driven overexploitationof marginal sites

Vicious Circle: Impoverishment → Extension of Agriculture → Soildegradation → Reduction of Yield → Impoverishment

Patterns by Inspection

Patterns by Inspection – The Sahel Syndrome

Originally postulated Syndromes (WBGU, 1997; Schellnhuber et al., 1997):

Local contamination of environmental assets at industrial locationsContaminatedContaminated Land SyndromeLand Syndrome

Degradation through disposal of wasteWaste Dumping SyndromeWaste Dumping Syndrome

Utilization Syndromes

Degradation through large-scale diffusion of long-living substancesSmokestackSmokestack SyndromeSyndrome

Sink Syndromes

Singular anthropogenic environmental disasters with long-term impactsDisasterDisaster SyndromeSyndrome

Destruction of landscape through planned expansion of urban infrastructures

Urban Urban SprawlSprawl SyndromeSyndrome

Socio-ecological degradation through uncontrolled urban growthFavelaFavela SyndromeSyndrome

Disregard of environmental standards in the course of rapid economicdevelopment

AsianAsian Tiger SyndromeTiger Syndrome

Degradation through the transfer and introduction of inappropriate farmingmethods

Green Revolution SyndromeGreen Revolution Syndrome

Damage of landscape as a result of large-scale projectsAral Aral SeaSea SyndromeSyndrome

Development Syndromes

Environmental destruction through war and military actionScorchedScorched Earth SyndromeEarth Syndrome

Development and destruction of nature for recreational endsMassMass TourismTourism SyndromeSyndrome

Degradation through depletion of non-renewable resourcesKatangaKatanga SyndromeSyndrome

Non-sustainable agro-industrial use of soils and water bodiesDustDust BowlBowl SyndromeSyndrome

Degradation through the abondonment of traditional agricultural practicesRuralRural Exodus SyndromeExodus Syndrome

Overexploitation of natural ecosystemsOverexploitationOverexploitation SyndromeSyndrome

Overuse of marginal landSahel SyndromeSahel Syndrome

Spatial distribution of 7 (of 16) Syndromes (1990s, about 60 indicators)

Lüdeke et al., GAIA 13 (2004) no. 1 www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

Syndrome diagnosis

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

How persistent is the Syndrome identification by „inspection“against changes of the expert group?

• Comparison of WBGU/PIK list of syndromes and theGEO_4/UNEP list of vulnerability archetypes

GEO_4/Chapter 8 authors:

Dhari Naser Al-Ajmi; Geoffrey Dabelko; Thierry de Oliveira; Indra De Soysa; Richard Filcak; Des Gasper; Silvia Giada; Henk Hilderink; Jill Jäger; Sylvia Karlsson; Marcel Kok; Liza Koshy; Matthias Lüdeke(Gerhard Petschel-Held); Marybeth Long Martello; Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere; Vikrom Mathur; Ana Rosa Moreno; Annet Nakyeyune; Vishal Narain; Alvaro Ponce; Sophie Strasser; Frank Thomalla; Steven Wonink.

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

11 Archetypes of vulnerability Short Description Common Pool Resources Vulnerabilities that result from the over-use of Common Pool Resources (CPRs),

which happens because CPRs are difficult to protect and susceptible for overuse that diminishes resource availability for all users

Contaminated sites - Legacies of the past Potentially harmful situations that are not eliminated and where especially the poorer sections of society are vulnerable to the negative consequences of this situation.

Desertification in Drylands The vulnerability of rural populations who depend directly on the land and natural resources for their livelihoods to environmental and social change within dryland areas.

Exporting vulnerability The consequences of increasing global consumption and its harmful effects on natural systems that makes it harder for the poorest on the planet to meet their basic needs.

Global markets, local opportunities Export-crop driven land use change undermining the livelihood of ecosystem dependent communities, without sufficient alternatives for them to overcome the loss of livelihood base and little sharing of the benefits from the resource exploitation.

(Post) Conflict induced Vulnerability The vulnerabilities to human well-being presented in the post-conflict period. The breakdown of infrastructure, social order, and the rule of law in many post-conflict settings increases the vulnerability of human-environment systems.

Resource Paradox Availability of easy money for governments from resource rents drives unsustainable use of resources without commensurate welfare gains for society. Resource wealthy states tend to generate human vulnerability and ill-being through the perpetuation of poverty and bad governance

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to climate change impacts in a broader context in which a suite of geographic, economic and social factors interplay to create disproportionate vulnerabilities for all SIDS.

Technological fixes of water problems Vulnerability induced by the bad management or failure of centrally planned, large-scale projects (like dams) involving deliberate reshaping of the natural environment. Ambivalence: providing additional resources but having severe impacts on the environment and society.

Urbanisation of the coastal fringe: balancing environmental risks and economic opportunities

Rapid coastal urbanisation in the context of increasing vulnerabilities to climate and weather-related hazards and climate change in coastal areas that are often ecologically sensitive.

Vulnerability of Energy Production and Consumption systems in Industrialised countries: the next energy crises?

The ability (or lack thereof) of the energy production and consumption systems in industrialised countries to fulfil (increasing) energy demand in a changing context of security of energy supply, liberalisation and privatisation of the sector, impacts of climate change and requirements to contribute to mitigation.

0-Draft Chapter8/GEO_4

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

Waste Dumping ∪ Contaminated Land

=Contaminated sites – legacies of the past

Dust Bowl Syndrome⊂Global markets, local opportunities

Overexploitation Syndrome⊃Common pool resources

Sahel Syndrome⊂Desertification in drylands

Favela ∪ Urban Sprawl ⊂Urbanization of the coastal fringe

Aral Sea Syndrome=Technological fixes of water problems

Scorched Earth Syndrome=(Post)-conflict induced vulnerability

Syndrome, WBGU/PIKRelationVulnerability Archetype, GEO_4

Despite different groups and 10 years distance, 7/11 Archetypes can be found alomost exactly in thesyndrome list:

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

Differences occur for the following archetypes (4/11)

due to actual events:• Vulnerability of Energy Production and Consumption Systems in

Industrialised countries: the next energy crises?

due to a stronger development country perspective:• Small Island Developing States

due to a stronger equity oriented perspective:• Exporting Vulnerability

due to a more economistic perspective:• Resource Paradox

Mapping of Syndromes on Climate Change

Petschel-Held et al. in: Goals and Economic Instruments for the Achievement of Global Warming Mitigation in Europe, Eds. Hacker/Pelchen, Kluwer 1999

Sahel-Syndrome: a problem – even without climate change! Regions, generally vulnerable towards the mechanism:

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedekeLüdeke et al., Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4 (1999)

Regions, presently vulnerable towards the Sahel-Syndrome mechanism

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedekeLüdeke et al., Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4 (1999)

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

Niederschlag DJF unter A1B (AR4, WG I)

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke

Niederschlag JJA unter A1B (AR4, WG I)

www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedekeLüdeke et al., Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4 (1999)Moldenhauer et al., ClimRes 21 (2002)

Regions, where a presently low disposition is very sensitive against CC

Objectives and short history of the Syndrome approach