System Operations Report

PJM©2019www.pjm.com | Public

System Operations Report

Stephanie Monzon

Manager, Markets Coordination

Operating Committee

December 10, 2019


Load Forecasting Error (Achieved 80% of the Time)www.pjm.com

1.90

2.58

1.98

2.04

1.69

2.00

2.14

3.20

2.09

3.14

2.90

1.79

2.65

1.66

1.84

2.08

2.44

1.49

1.70

1.28

1.30

1.64

1.36

1.46

1.09

1.80

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Fore

cast

Err

or (

Abso

lute

%)

On-Peak

Off-Peak

Average

3% Line

20192018


PJM RTO Load Forecasting Analysis

Average RTO load forecast error performance for November 2019 was

2.22%, within the goal of 3%.

www.pjm.com


Peak Load Forecasting Error Outlier Dayswww.pjm.com

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0


Fore

cast

Err

or (

Abso

lute

%)

20192018

05/17/19

06/20/19

09/09/19

11/14/1910/08/1911/09/18

12/23/18 01/31/19

02/02/1903/13/19

04/21/19

07/18/19

08/23/19


Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zonewww.pjm.com

RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC

2.1% 4.1%

1.7% 3.8%

2.3% 3.5%

3.2%

2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.4%3.6%

Quarter2017 Q1 1.0% 1.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8%

2.2% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 4.8%2.8% 2.7% 3.0%

2.0% 3.7%2017 Q2 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%

3.5%2.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5%3.6%

2.1% 2.3%2.4% 2.3%2017 Q3 1.9%2017 Q4 1.1% 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.5%

2018 Q2 1.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% 3.7%2.1% 1.9% 1.5% 2.8% 1.3%2.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 3.4%

2018 Q1 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5%

1.5% 2.0%2018 Q3 1.6%

3.3%2.1% 3.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.7%

2018 Q4 1.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2%2.5% 2.6% 3.5%

2019 Q2 1.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6%3.2% 3.1%

3.7%1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% 1.5%2.2% 3.2% 2.9% 2.3% 2.2% 2.8%

2019 Q1 1.2% 1.6% 2.5% 1.8%

2.3% 4.6% 3.8% 2.5% 2.9%2019 Q3 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 4.0%2019 Q4 1.3% 1.8% 2.2% 1.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6%


Monthly BAAL Performance Score

PJM’s BAAL performance has exceeded the goal of 99% for each month in 2019.

www.pjm.com

99.9 99.999.9

99.999.9

99.899.9 99.9

99.899.9 99.9 99.9

99.9

15 15

25

13

41 43

2522

35 35

24

36

17

30 29

63

36

66

94

5146

87

61

47

68

29

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

98

99

100


Excu

rsio

ns an

d Mi

nute

s

Oper

atio

ns M

etric

(%)

Operations Metric (%)

Excursions Outside Limits

Minutes Outside Limits

2018 2019


• Zero spinning events in the month of November

• One reserve sharing event with the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC)

• The following Emergency Procedures occurred in November:

– 9 Post-Contingency Local Load Relief Warnings (PCLLRW)

– 2 Shortage Cases Approved

Operational Summarywww.pjm.com


RTO Generation Outage Rate - Monthly

The 13-month average forced outage rate is 4.11% or 8,171 MW.

The 13-month average total outage rate is 16.48% or 32,670 MW.

www.pjm.com

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019 11/1/2019

Forced Outage Average (%)Total Outage Average (%)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019 11/1/2019

Forced Outage Average (MW)Total Outage Average (MW)


2018-2019 Planned Emergency,

Unplanned, and Total Outages by Ticket

Note: “Unplanned Outages" include tripped facilities. One tripping event may involve multiple facilities.

www.pjm.com

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Num

ber o

f Out

age

Tick

ets

Total

Unplanned (greater than 2 hrs)

Planned Emergency


PCLLRW Count Vs. Peak Load – Daily Values For 3 Monthswww.pjm.com

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Nov 2019

PCLL

RW C

ount

MW (T

hous

ands

)

RTO Peak LoadPCLLRW Count


Spin Responsewww.pjm.com

PJM experienced no spinning events during the month of November 2019.


Perfect Dispatch – Performancewww.pjm.com

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2019 Perfect Dispatch Performance - November 2019

2019 Daily Performance

2019 YTD Performance




Perfect Dispatch – Performancewww.pjm.com

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

$24

$28

$32

2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 1012 2 4 6 8 10

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cum

ulat

ive P

rodu

ctio

n Co

st S

avin

gs ($

in M

illion

s)

Mont

hly

Prod

uctio

n Co

st S

avin

gs ($

in M

illion

s)

Month/Year

Perfect Dispatch Estimated Production Cost Savings Through November 2019

Monthly Production Cost Savings

Cumulative Production Cost Savings


Perfect Dispatch Analysis

The year-to-date Perfect Dispatch performance score through

November 2019 is 90.29%.

The estimated cumulative production cost savings through November

2019 is over $1.5 billion with over $67 million in savings in 2019.

www.pjm.com


Appendix

www.pjm.com


Peak Load Average Forecast Error by Zonewww.pjm.com

0

1

2

3

4

5

RTO MIDATL AP CE AEP DAY DUQ DOM ATSI DEOK EKPC

Fore

cast

Err

or (

Abso

lute

%)

20192017

2019 Q4

2019 Q22019 Q3

2017 Q42018 Q12018 Q22018 Q32018 Q42019 Q1

2017 Q12017 Q22017 Q3


Goal Measurement: Balancing Authority ACE Limit (BAAL)

• The purpose of the new BAAL standard is to maintain interconnection frequency within a predefined frequency profile under all conditions (normal and abnormal), to prevent frequency-related instability, unplanned tripping of load or generation, or uncontrolled separation or cascading outages that adversely impact the reliability of the interconnection. NERC requires each balancing authority demonstrate real-time monitoring of ACE and interconnection frequency against associated limits and shall balance its resources and demands in real time so that its Reporting ACE does not exceed the BAAL (BAALLOW or BAALHIGH) for a continuous time period greater than 30 minutes for each event.

• PJM directly measures the total number of BAAL excursions in minutes compared to the total number of minutes within a month. PJM has set a target value for this performance goal at 99% on a daily and monthly basis. In addition, current NERC rules limit the recovery period to no more than 30 minutes for a single event.

Balancing Authority ACE Limit - Performance Measurewww.pjm.com


RTO Generation Outage Rate - Dailywww.pjm.com

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019 11/1/2019

FORCED OUTAGE RATE (%)TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (%)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

11/1/2018 1/1/2019 3/1/2019 5/1/2019 7/1/2019 9/1/2019 11/1/2019

FORCED OUTAGE RATE (MW)TOTAL OUTAGE RATE (MW)

The 13-month average forced outage rate is 4.11% or 8,171 MW.

The 13-month average total outage rate is 16.48% or 32,670 MW.


PCLLRW Count Vs. Peak Load – Daily Values For 13 Monthswww.pjm.com

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

11/01/18 01/01/19 03/01/19 05/01/19 07/01/19 09/01/19 11/01/19

PCLL

RW C

ount

MW (T

hous

ands

)

RTO Peak LoadPCLLRW Count


Perfect Dispatch refers to the hypothetical least production cost commitment and Dispatch, achievable only if all system conditions (load

forecast, unit availability / performance, interchange, transmission outages, etc.) were known and controllable in advance. While being

hypothetical and not achievable in reality, this is useful as a baseline for performance measurement.

The Perfect Dispatch performance goal is designed to measure how well PJM commits combustion turbines (CTs) in real time operations

compared to a calculated optimal CT commitment profile.

The Perfect Dispatch performance measure is calculated as 100% x (The accumulative year-to-date optimal CT production cost in

Perfect Dispatch / The accumulative year-to-date actual real-time CT production cost).

The Perfect Dispatch performance goal was removed as a goal beginning in 2015. Currently Perfect Dispatch does not have a

performance goal, but the metric will continue to be tracked.

The cumulative Estimated Production Cost Savings helps to demonstrate the savings that result from PJM’s process changes since the

inception of the Perfect Dispatch analysis in 2008. This estimate is determined by comparing the Perfect Dispatch performance for all

resources to benchmarks set at the beginning of the Perfect Dispatch analysis. A benchmark of 98.18% is used for comparison of the

2019 metric which is 98.86% through the end of November 2019.

Perfect Dispatch – Performance Measurewww.pjm.com

Documents

System Operations Report