Quarterly reportQ1 2019 market review

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It has been events outside the UK rather than Brexit that have dominated market moves so far this year.

The year has started with a strong recovery in equity markets following the sharp sell-off seen in the second half

of 2018. This has been fuelled by central banks pulling away from the tightening moves that took place last year.

Whilst US trade policy has not reversed, an expansion of tariffs on Chinese goods has been delayed and the noise

out of Beijing and Washington indicates that a deal may be done in the not so distant future. In the UK, Brexit

has been the main talking point following numerous votes in Parliament and a delay in the Brexit date. It remains

unclear as to what direction Brexit will take but fears of dropping out with no deal have receded.

At a glance

n Equity markets rebounded

n Central banks reversed gear

n Brexit uncertainty persisted

n Trade tensions moderated

n European economy remained weak

n UK equity markets were positive despite Brexit

Q1 2019 summary

Macro summary

Introduction

Whilst Brexit dominates the domestic headlines, the

movement in financial markets has been driven by changes

in central bank policy and eased fears of a slowdown in

economic growth. Throughout the last quarter of 2018, it

was feared that central banks, particularly the US Federal

Reserve (“Fed”), were tightening monetary conditions too

fast. This, together with the US-China trade dispute, was

threatening to slow global economic growth. Whilst there

have been signs of some slower growth, central banks and

Chinese authorities have moved to counter this. Despite

some problems remaining, US-China trade talks appear

to be progressing.

Central banks

The Fed no longer forecasts further rate rises this year and

has announced that it will end its balance sheet reduction

by September 2019. Prior to this, the European Central

Bank (“ECB”) announced another round of cheap loans to

banks. Since central banks have pulled back from tightening

monetary policy, we have seen government bonds generate

positive returns and credit spreads narrow. The Bank of

England raised rates in 2018 but is not expected to do so

again this year. This may change depending on the outcome

of Brexit.

China

In response to weaker growth expectations, China has

announced a stimulus package including tax cuts and

additional spending. There has been sufficient progress on

trade talks with Trump to postpone the additional tariffs

that had been initially proposed. It is possible that a meeting

between Trump and Xi could take place before the end of

April to conclude a trade deal. This has lifted equity market

sentiment and the falls in equity indices in the final quarter of

last year have largely reversed. Given the improved prospects

for global growth, commodities also showed positive returns.

Europe

At the end of last year the Italian government, after much

haggling, agreed a budget with the European Union. This was,

however, dependent on a growing economy. Italian growth

expectations have been revised down to barely positive, which

will inevitably call into question the viability of the budget.

Italy was not the only country under pressure, with France

facing disruption from the widespread Yellow Vest protests

and German manufacturing slowing considerably. The US is

threatening more tariffs on the import of goods from the EU

which, together with Brexit, is adding additional pressure. As

a result, car exports, which are particularly important for the

German economy, have suffered.

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115%

110%

105%

100%

95%

90%

85%

Dec ‘17 Mar ‘18 Jun ‘18 Dec ‘18 Mar ‘19

Rebound in global equity markets in Q1*

Sep ‘18

*Represented by the FTSE All Share Total Return Index, S&P 500 Total Return Index, Euro Stoxx 50 Net Return Index and Nikkei 225 Total Return Index (rebased to 100 at the end of 2017)

Source: Bloomberg, London Stock Exchange, Standard & Poors,Stoxx, Tokyo Stock Exchange

UK

US

Eurozone

Japan

Currency drivers

Brexit

Whilst global markets have largely ignored Brexit, many UK

investors remain fixated by the goings on in Westminster and

Brussels. The value of the pound dipped on the prospect of a

no-deal Brexit, but subsequently recovered when this seemed

less likely. There has been a corresponding move within the

UK equity market, with international stocks outperforming

domestic stocks when the pound is weak and vice versa.

Writing about Brexit is increasingly difficult as the prospects

swing by the hour and the political pundits comment on each

change in strategy. At the end of the quarter, following many

votes in Parliament, we can be sure that MPs do not want a

no-deal Brexit. However, this remains the legal default position

until something passes in Parliament. Having so far rejected

all other propositions, what MPs do want is unclear. There has

already been one delay in the Brexit date and further delays

are possible.

Summary

In spite of Brexit being the primary concern of UK politicians

and Eurocrats in the first quarter, markets have focused on

the good news. We expect that the US will eventually

conclude a trade deal with China and the Fed will only move

to tighten again if economic growth improves substantially.

We therefore remain broadly positive on equity markets for

the quarter ahead.

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GBP USD EUR

Brexitnegotiations

Strongerrelativegrowth

Weakeningeconomic

data

“ Whilst global markets have largely ignored Brexit, many UK investors remain fixated by the goings on in Westminster and Brussels.” Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer

Fixed income

The course of the RMS Titanic provides an apt analogy of

movements in markets over the last two quarters. Towards the

end of last year, investors feared that the ‘full speed ahead’

combination of tight monetary policy and geopolitical risks

would drive the global economy to crash into the proverbial

iceberg. This quarter, central banks appeared to see this

danger on the horizon and quickly changed course by moving

the engines into reverse. The key question now is “has enough

been done to just scrape the iceberg and continue the journey

or is the significant damage yet to come?”

This comparison may be a tad dramatic; however, it does

highlight how extraordinary the shift in monetary policy

has been over the quarter. First and foremost, the Fed, the

most hawkish central bank, last year saw enough economic

momentum to raise rates four times and has now indicated a

path towards modest loosening. Reviewing the timeline more

carefully, the Fed raised interest rates in mid-December but

then proceeded to adopt a “patient” mantra in early January.

This stance was clarified at their March meeting, when it

published its latest median rate expectations (the “Dot plot”).

This indicated no rate hikes this year, a retreat from the two

increases suggested in December, and only one increase next

year. In addition, the Fed revised their growth projections

to be lower this year and detailed when they would stop

shrinking their balance sheet. This quantitative tightening will

see balance sheet reductions decrease in May before stopping

altogether in September. When the Fed announced the

programme in 2017, investors had expected it to end around

2021, therefore demonstrating quite a significant shift. The

Fed cited weaker global growth prospects and tighter financial

conditions as its rationale for the pause. However, we believe

the latter also recognises the difficulty in normalising policy

when other central banks are talking about easing policy.

The ECB finds itself in a more precarious position given that

the currency bloc is barely growing at all, with Italy officially

in recession and Germany just narrowly avoiding one. Recent

manufacturing survey data showed no respite this quarter

and indicates further contraction. Meanwhile, the backward

looking German factory orders weakened to its lowest level

since 2012. Given that the ECB halted its asset purchases

at the end of 2018, it had to find alternative policy tools.

Reversing course would have been seen as correcting a policy

mistake. Firstly, they backtracked on their earlier interest

rate guidance and now anticipate no rate increases until

at least 2020. Secondly, as its long term cheap financing

facilities, Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations

(TLTROs), start to mature later this year, the ECB used the

weakness to announce a third leg of the programme earlier

than anticipated. This surprise was initially taken positively by

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3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

Dec ‘15 Dec ‘16 Dec ‘17 Dec ‘18

Developed market sovereign bond yields

Source: Bloomberg

UK

US

Germany

Japan

“ This quarter, central banks appeared to see this danger on the horizon and quickly changed course by moving the engines into reverse.” Jeremy Sterngold, Head of Fixed Income

investors, however quickly faded as the terms were

less favourable, bringing the effectiveness of the measure

into question.

China’s data showed a modest but significant contraction in

manufacturing over the quarter. This stoked fears that the

trade war had already inflicted some damage on the global

economy, despite noise coming from both parties suggesting

that a deal is on the cards. Facing weaker trends, China

cut its reserve requirements for banks as part of a stimulus

package aimed to shore up the economy. The major central

banks have acted swiftly and decisively to change policy in

order to support businesses and the consumer during a more

challenging environment. The hope is that the current soft

patch will be just that.

The pronounced shift across the major central banks as they

came to grips with a slowing global economy led bond yields

sharply lower. Benchmark ten-year German bunds fell back

into negative territory for the first time since 2016. US bond

markets started pricing in a rate cut and ten-year yields fell

below levels of three month bills. This gave further cause for

concern as an inverted yield curve has preceded the last nine

US recessions. In the past, the inversion of the yield curve has

proven to be one of the most reliable warning signals of a

looming recession. However, there is a great deal of debate to

determine which measure is the most important one. Another

closely watched measure, the difference between two year

and ten year borrowing rates, has not yet inverted (see chart

below). Some specific factors may help explain the current

inversion but this amber signal on the health of the economy

is difficult to ignore.

A combination of lower sovereign bond yields and better

sentiment across risk assets has been a tailwind for corporate

bonds. Last quarter investors became concerned that BBB

rated names, which have grown materially, would face

downgrades into non-investment grade as global economic

trends deteriorated. The forced selling activity could

subsequently test liquidity conditions in the market and lead

to large market losses. Central bank actions will result in more

favourable liquidity conditions and companies that faced

significant headwinds (such as General Electric) announced

asset sales and further actions to bolster the balance sheet.

Speculative grade companies benefitted from these trends,

as well as rising commodity prices. Current spread levels are

currently around their three year average, reflecting the more

balanced outlook.

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1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.2

Dec ‘17 Mar ‘18 Jun ‘18 Dec ‘18 Mar ‘19

US yield curves

Sep ‘18

Source: Bloomberg

3m to 10y

2y to 10y

Equities

UK Equities

In total return terms, the FTSE All Share Index rose by 2.7%

in March, the third consecutive month of gains. Over the

quarter, the index was up 9.4%. Dividends accounted for

1.1 percentage points of the total, so the capital growth

component obviously accounted for the bulk of the gain.

Global equities performed slightly better than the UK but the

performance of the FTSE All-Share easily outperformed both

UK corporate and government bonds.

The All Share’s gains in the quarter were seen across the

market cap spectrum, from small caps to large caps. Small

caps excluding Investment Trusts were only up 5.1%, whereas

mid-caps were up 9.8%, and clearly benefitted from political

developments and subsequent hopes of a soft-Brexit outcome.

The top 100 stocks are more internationally exposed, and

could have suffered a little from the general strengthening

of the pound in the quarter, but still enjoyed a gain of 9.5%.

This was a positive move, and in line with previously expressed

views that the alleviation of uncertainty should benefit most

UK shares.

In terms of individual sectors, Mining, Tobacco and Food

Retail were the top positive contributors to overall market

performance, whilst Mobile Telecoms, and Travel & Leisure

had the biggest negative contribution. The Banking sector also

struggled. Lloyds performed strongly, and it was one of the

more obvious beneficiaries of the shift towards hopes for a

‘soft’ Brexit, but HSBC struggled to perform and this weighed

on the sector as a whole.

The solid gain in the market over the quarter means that most

UK investors will have recovered well from the turmoil of last

year. As a reminder, the All-Share ended 2018 down 13.3%

and the FTSE 100 down 12.5%.

The recovery in the market means that the trailing price to

earnings (“PE”) ratio of UK equities is now around 14.4x. It is

slightly above the long-term average, but the earnings yield

(the reciprocal of the PE) remains at 6.9%. Thanks to the fall

in Government bond yields, investors may well be attracted

to the pick-up in yield provided by dividends from UK listed

companies. This can be seen in the chart below.

With over 70% of FTSE 100 earnings coming from markets

other than the UK, the state of the global economy has a

far bigger influence on sentiment. A recent survey of asset

managers by Absolute Strategy Research makes it clear that

most are exuding caution after a big first-quarter recovery in

risk assets (Source: ASR). Brexit and US-China trade talks aside,

investors have shown some concerns about low global growth

and the signal being given by falling bond yields and inverted

yield curves. Over the course of the next quarter, this means

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5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

2006 2008 2010 2014 2018

Gap between FTSE All-Share dividend yield and UK 10y gilt yield

2012 2016

Source: Bloomberg, London Stock Exchange

UK yield gap

“ The solid gain in the market over the quarter means that most UK investors will have recovered well from the turmoil of last year. As a reminder, the All-Share ended 2018 down 13.3% and the FTSE 100 down 12.5%.” James Follows, Head of UK Equities

that investors will focus more than ever on global economic

data, US-China trade negotiations, and what companies have

to say about their first-quarter earnings and growth prospects.

In the context of the UK equity market, we continue to place

emphasis on individual stocks with good balance sheets,

good operational strengths, good prospects, and surplus free

cash flow. Many of these stocks offer high dividend yields,

and we continue to believe that income will be an important

component in the overall returns that are delivered from this

point on. We are alert to the possibility of headwinds from

various political and economic developments and we will

pragmatically adjust our course if the need arises.

International Equities

After equity markets took a tumble in the fourth quarter of 2018,

they sharply reversed course in Q1, posting the best first quarter

return since 2010. The S&P 500 Index in the US was up 13%,

helped by a solid earnings season when Q4 2018 revenues were

up 6% and earnings per share 12% over the previous year.

Despite the ongoing US-China trade talks, investors chose to

see the end of 2018 as an aberration, rather than the new

trend for stocks. Thus, the best performing sectors and stocks

in Q1 were those that fell the most in Q4 2018. The IT sector

rose 19% with the tech-heavy Telecoms Services sector also

up 14%. Facebook rose 27%, Apple 20%, Amazon 19%,

Microsoft 16% and Alphabet (the parent company of Google)

13%. This bounce back is shown in the chart below. All of

these companies reported robust revenue growth during

the quarter, with little or no discernible impact from rising

geo-political tensions and US-China issues. However, earnings

were more mixed as the arms race to build improved data

centres and be at the leading edge in artificial intelligence,

meant huge capital expenditures.

The US government shutdown and market volatility meant

that bank management teams were cautioning that Q1 2019

earnings would see weakness from investment banking.

The Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, also hinted that the next

move in US interest rates might be down, rather than up.

This meant that the US banks lagged in rising 8% over the

quarter. Elsewhere it was a case of a rising tide lifting all boats

as Industrials rose 17%, Energy 16%, Consumer Discretionary

15% and Consumer Staples 11%.

Europe rose 12% with Consumer Staples, Technology and

Consumer Discretionary sectors following the US and leading

markets. Banks too, were relative underperformers in rising

only 5%.

In Emerging Markets, the two main indices in China added

over a quarter to their values in the first three months of

the year, shrugging off the lack of action on trade talks, but

clearly anticipating a resolution. Despite being one of the

worst performing equity markets at the end of 2018, Japan’s

Topix only rebounded 6%, perhaps as any US-China trade deal

would leave the country on the outside looking in.

9

100%

95%

90%

85%

80%

75%

70%

Oct ‘18 Nov ‘18 Dec ‘18 Feb ‘19 Mar ‘19

Bounce back in US tech stocks in 2019

Jan ‘19

Equally weighted average of Facebook/Amazon/Apple/Microsoft/Alphabet over the last two quarters (rebased to 100 at the end of Q4 2018)

Source: Bloomberg

US Tech stock

Alternative investments

Property/Infrastructure

Over the last quarter, both real estate and infrastructure

investments rallied in line with other risk assets, recovering

most of their 2018 losses. Most notably, the FTSE EPRA

NAREIT Developed Market Total Return Index (a property

index) is currently at an all-time high. This rally has largely

been driven by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman,

Jerome Powell, in January. Forecasts that the Fed plans to

pause rate rises in the near term in order to allow the economy

to expand sparked a positive response from markets. After

nine rate rises since 2015, this announcement (dubbed the

“Fed Pause”) led to a rally in risk assets.

Meanwhile in the UK, the real estate market continues to be

affected by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Structurally,

we have seen that the number of mortgages being approved

remains around 40% below pre-financial crisis levels. Such

low activity has resulted in big swings in price movement.

With that said, annual house price growth year-on-year has

held steady at 2.6%. Saving for a deposit remains problematic

for many looking to buy a property. However, the combined

effect of fewer houses for sale and fewer people looking

to buy continues to support prices in the long-term. The

divergence between the top end of the property market

and the bottom end seems to be narrowing in light of Brexit

uncertainty and tax measures directed at those at the top-end

of the market.

The global real estate cycle is at a mature stage and limited

capital growth is expected. The attraction of real estate is the

yield differential to government bonds. Political risk remains

a concern in certain segments of the infrastructure/property

space. The headwinds for retail and commercial property poses

serious cause for concern given the digital revolution. As a

result, we remain benign about the outlook for property.

In summary, bond yields have come down in the last quarter,

making the income yield on real estate relatively more

attractive. However, the changing nature of commerce

and a slowing economy increases the downside risk

and therefore we recommend a selective approach to real

estate investments.

Targeted Absolute Return

As with the majority of asset classes, Absolute Return has

had a decent first quarter with most strategies recovering

their losses from the second half of 2018. Manager selection

remains critical in this space. Style diversification was less

prominent during the quarter as all styles were positive.

Long/short equity benefitted from the equity rally and the

out performance of growth over value was also a major

contributor. Macro funds and systematic trend following

strategies benefitted from the rally in rates in March. Event

driven strategies benefitted from the completion of deals

during the quarter. Multi-asset funds benefitted from the rally

in bonds and equities. The increase in correlation between

asset classes was less of a concern in this environment where

almost all asset classes were positive.

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“ Therefore, a well-diversified portfolio of alternative strategies should have the potential to dampen the volatility seen within the equity allocation of a balanced portfolio.” Meena Lakshmanan, Head of Alternative Investments

The rally in bond yields has made the risk/reward from current

levels skewed downwards. Therefore, a well-diversified

portfolio of alternative strategies should have the potential

to dampen the volatility seen within the equity allocation

of a balanced portfolio. The Federal Reserve rate rise pause

has temporarily led to an increase in volatility. However, less

growth means that corporate activity will remain high, which

cannot be exploited by traditional long only discretionary

managers. The correlation between equities and bonds, as

we have seen over the last few years, is inconsistent and

unstable; therefore making alternatives an attractive way of

achieving diversification within portfolios. We continue to

favour medium-sized alternative managers who have a flexible

investment process, enhancing their ability to navigate the

current environment.

The liquidity mismatch between fund dealing and underlying

assets can result in unexpected price action, as seen in the

final quarter of 2018. As a result, we are cognisant of the

liquidity profile of our third party funds.

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Key market data

Key market data (as at 31 March 2019)

Asset class Level 1m % 3m % 6m % 1y % 3y % 5y % YTD %

Equity indices (total return) *

FTSE All-Share (GBP) 3978 2.7 9.4 -1.8 6.4 31.3 34.5 9.4

S&P 500 (USD) 2834 1.9 13.6 -1.7 9.5 46.3 67.8 13.6

Euro Stoxx 50 (EUR) 3352 1.8 12.2 -0.7 2.6 21.1 21.2 12.2

Nikkei 225 (JPY) 21206 0.0 6.9 -11.0 0.9 34.2 57.0 6.9

MSCI World (USD) 2108 1.3 12.5 -2.6 4.0 35.6 38.8 12.5

MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan (USD) 529 1.5 11.5 1.6 -3.5 37.7 29.5 11.5

MSCI Emerging Markets (USD) 1058 0.8 9.9 1.7 -7.4 35.6 19.8 9.9

10 year bond yields **

UK 1.00 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -1.7 -0.3

US 2.41 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.3

Germany -0.07 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -1.6 -0.3

Japan -0.08 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1

Commodities (USD)

Gold 1292 -1.6 0.8 8.5 -2.5 4.8 0.7 0.8

Oil 68 3.6 27.1 -17.3 -2.7 72.7 -36.5 27.1

Currency

GBP-USD 1.30 -1.7 2.2 0.0 -7.0 -9.2 -21.8 2.2

GBP-EUR 1.16 -0.4 4.5 3.5 2.1 -7.9 -4.0 4.5

EUR-USD 1.12 -1.3 -2.2 -3.3 -9.0 -1.4 -18.5 -2.2

USD-JPY 110.86 -0.5 1.1 -2.5 4.3 -1.5 7.4 1.1

Source: Bloomberg, ICE, London Stock Exchange, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Stoxx Tokyo Stock Exchange

* Performance is given on total return indices, but the levels are for the main indices. ** Displayed as absolute changes in yields, rather than percentages.

12

“ It has been events outside the UK rather than Brexit that have dominated market moves so far this year.”Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer LGT Vestra

Quarterly report contributors

Jonathan Marriott, Chief Investment Officer

Meena Lakshmanan, Head of Alternatives

James Follows, Head of UK Equities

Russell Harrop, Head of International Equities

Jeremy Sterngold, Head of Fixed Income

For further information please contact:

Louise Blanc

+44 (0)20 3207 8011

louise.blanc@lgtvestra.com

Important informationLGT Vestra LLP, LGT Vestra US Limited and LGT Vestra (Jersey) Limited are affiliated financial services companies (each individually an “Affiliate”) together known as “LGT Vestra”.

This document is for informational purposes only and is intended for confidential use by the recipient. It is not to be reproduced, copied or made available to others. This document is considered to be a general market commentary and does not constitute advice or a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of individual clients. This document is not intended and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any investments. You are recommended to seek advice concerning suitability of any investment from your investment adviser.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance; and the value of investments, as well as the income from them can go down as

well as up, and investors may get back less than the original amount invested.

The information and opinions expressed herein are based on current public information we believe to be reliable; but we do not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon as such. Any information herein is given in good faith, but is subject to change without notice. No liability is accepted whatsoever by LGT Vestra or its employees and associated companies for any direct or consequential loss arising from this document. This document is not for distribution outside the European Economic Area.

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The market views herein are drawn from the minutes of the LGT Vestra LLP Investment Committee and are reviewed and approved by the LGT Vestra US Limited Investment Committee prior to distribution. For further information please contact your investment manager.

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LGT Vestra US Limited14 Cornhill, London EC3V 3NRPhone +44(0)20 3207 8000info@lgtvestra-us.com

www.lgtvestra-us.com