INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

FOREWORD

The Project Management Coordination Unit (PMCU) of the Ministry of Environment and Drainage is coordinating the Consultancy to Develop Adaptation Measures to Counter the Effects of Climate Change with a focus on Water Resource Management & Flood Resilience, or the AMCECC programme. The programme, which is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), aims to lessen the possible effects of climate change and increase the resilience of Barbados, through public education as well as the design and implementation of various structures and actions.

Two critical components of this project are the development of climate change education materials and the training of civil society organisations (CSO) and non-governmental organisations (NGO). The objective is to build general awareness, expand scientific knowledge and transfer skills to ensure effective partnerships in building the resilience of communities to disasters and their adaptation to climate change.

To this end a set of training materials were developed by CERMES and Baird & Associates, including – educational modules, power point presentations and videos. These were designed to provide representatives of CSOs, NGOs and primary and secondary school teachers with simplified information about climate change, its causes and effects. Most importantly, the materials provide details on the actions that can be taken by citizens to mitigate against and adapt to the effects of climate change.

Training of trainer sessions in November 2016 introduced this material to representatives of local CSOs, NGOs and the teaching community to assist them in using the information to develop their own training or teaching programmes.

Barbados is a small island developing state, particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The island receives significant rainfall, seasonally, yet it remains one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. It is predicted that with ongoing climate change, periods of both drought and flooding may become more prolonged in Barbados in the future. We therefore hope that you will use these modules, videos and power point presentations to enhance your knowledge of climate change. We are even more hopeful that you will share them with your relatives, school mates, work colleagues, people in your churches and clubs.

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1 WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?

In this module, weather, climate and climate change are explained. We will also consider the many causes of climate change and the evidence that proves that the climate is indeed changing.

1.1 Weather

Weather is the day to day conditions in a particular place. For example, look out of the window right now. Is it sunny? Is it raining? How would you describe the conditions outside? That is today’s weather.

Figure 1: Example of daily weather patterns; Source: AccuWeather mobile application

When you watch the weather news the meteorologist (someone who studies weather) will give a weather forecast telling us what type of weather we can expect in the upcoming days: e.g., “Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with a few scattered showers.”

1.2 Climate

Climate describes the average weather conditions in a particular place over an extended period of time. It is based on data such as average monthly rainfall, average monthly temperatures and average hours of sunshine over periods as long as 10, 20 or more years. So, for example, we can say that Barbados has a warm sunny climate.

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Activity: Watch the video “What is Climate Change” as introduction to the session.

Figure 2: Example of climatic conditions; Source: http://www.barbados.climatemps.com/

It is also possible to refer to regional or global climate when rainfall, temperature, humidity and other measures of weather are averaged over the whole region or the whole planet. For example, the Caribbean region has a tropical climate, which means it is hot all year round with a dry sunny season followed by a wet season with more cloud cover. This concept will be useful later, when we talk about climate change signals.

1.3 Climate variability

Climate variability means that from time to time some summers are colder than others and some years have more precipitation. Climate variability is thought of as the way climate fluctuates yearly above or below a long-term average value.

So if climate variability is year-to-year variation, what is climate change? Well when these variations from the norm start happening frequently then they may be related to climate change.

1.4 Climate change

Climate change is a long-term continuous change (increase or decrease) to average weather conditions (e.g. average temperature) OR the range of weather (e.g. more frequent and severe

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Activity: Have the students/participants research and describe the climate in other places:

Table 1: Climatic conditions around the world

Location ClimateThe Sahara desert hot dry climateAntarctica dry cold climateThe BahamasMiami, FloridaToronto, CanadaParis, FranceRio, Brazil

extreme storms)1. So basically, climate change refers to “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.”2

However, although the Earth’s climate has always varied over long periods of time due to various natural causes, records show that since the Industrial Revolution in the early 1900s, the average annual temperature has been steadily going up when compared with a longer-term average. This suggests that in addition to natural changes, human activity has played a significant role in these recent increases. This has led the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to coin a definition that acknowledges this human contribution to climate change:

“Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”3

Many persons use the terms climate change and global warming inter-changeably. However, global warming only refers to increases in global temperatures, and even though some places will experience a warming effect, at the same time other places can have cooler weather. It is therefore more accurate to use the term climate change which refers to both cooling and warming of global temperatures.

2 WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?

There are a number of natural phenomena that can cause changes in the weather over long periods. These include amongst other things, solar radiation, changes in the angle of earth’s rotation, and volcanic activity. Human impacts on climate change have been as a result of increased greenhouse gases and their effects on Earth’s atmosphere.

2.1 Solar radiation

The sun goes through periods of high and low activity, emitting more or less radiation. This change in activity is monitored and recorded by looking at sunspots which are hot areas on the sun that appear as dark spots in comparison to surrounding areas. When there are many sunspots the amount of energy reaching earth increases, and therefore we can expect a warmer period. When there are fewer or no sunspots we can expect cooler conditions.

1 Dinse, Keely and Michigan Sea Grant. (2011). Climate Variability and Climate Change What Is The Difference? http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/downloads/climate/11-703-Climate-Variability-and-Climate-Change.pdf 2 IPCC, (2007). Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch9s9-1.html 3 UNFCCC (1994) UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Article 1 Definitions. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/2536.ph

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Figure 3: Sunspots; Source: https://www.weather.gov/fsd/sunspots

2.2 The Earth’s rotation

The earth’s axis is tilted by 23.5° and this is why we have seasons. The angle of the axis varies between 22° and 24° over a period of 41,000 years. When the angle is closer to 24° the effect of the seasons will be more pronounced and ice sheets will melt in the summer. When the angle is reduced to 22° there will be less variation in the seasons therefore enabling ice to build up at the poles because less heat is received from the sun.

Figure 4: Earth’s axis; Source: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/58828338855377856/

2.3 Volcanic activity

Volcanic eruptions spew sulphur dioxide (SO2) gas, water vapour, dust, and ash, high into the atmosphere, which can cool the earth’s temperatures by blocking incoming radiation from the sun. This cooling effect can last for months to years depending on the eruption. Volcanoes can also lead to a warming effect on the Earth when extreme amounts of volcanism occur, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere4.

2.4 The Greenhouse Effect

There is a layer of gases that surrounds the earth. These gases create a liveable atmosphere for life on earth. This is often referred to as a greenhouse effect, because these atmospheric gases – also known as the greenhouse gases – act like the glass of a greenhouse; keeping life on earth at the right temperature.

4 http://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/how-volcanoes-influence-climate

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Figure 5: Volcanic eruption; Source: http://twistedsifter.com/2011/06/most-incredible-photographs-of-volcanic-eruptions/

Activity: Watch the following video to see how the Green House Effect works: https://youtu.be/VYMjSule0Bw

Activity: Watch this video to learn more about the earth’s axis and seasons: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eFqZWX8nTo

Radiation from the sun enters the earth’s atmosphere and is absorbed by the air, oceans, land and plants. This energy is either converted to food by plants (photosynthesis) or re-emitted as heat. Some of this heat escapes through the atmosphere, and some is reflected back to earth again by atmospheric gases, thereby having a warming effect. Take a look at below.

Figure 6. The Greenhouse Effect. Source: http://www.offsetters.ca/education/climate-change/

Unfortunately, the activities of humans are increasing the amount or concentration of these greenhouse gases (GHG), resulting in more heat being trapped leading to climate change (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Humanity's contribution to global warming; Source http://www.offsetters.ca/learn-more/climate-change/causes-of-climate-change

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Activity: Give the participants a copy of Table 2Table 2 which does not include the sources of GHG and see how many they can identify on their own.

2.5 Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change

In the current discussion of climate change, the GHG of major concern is carbon dioxide (CO 2).

Although some of the other greenhouse gases are actually much more effective at trapping heat and last a lot longer in the atmosphere, they occur in lower quantities. For 10,000 years CO2

concentration in the atmosphere was about 280ppm (parts per million), in 1959 it was 316ppm and in 1995 it was 353ppm. 2015’s global average CO2 concentration was a new record high at 399.4 ppm and at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawai’i, the annual average carbon dioxide concentration was 400.85. The latest carbon dioxide measurement as of August 2016 is 404.07 ppm (Figure 8)Figure 8.

5 Mona Lau Observatory, National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NPAA) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/

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Table 2: Sources of the four principal greenhouse gases

Gas Natural Sources Human-derived sourcesCarbon dioxide Terrestrial biosphere

OceansFossil fuel combustionCement productionLand-use modification

Methane Natural wetlandsTermitesOceans and freshwater lakes

Fossil fuels (natural gas production, coal mines, petroleum industry, coal combustion)Enteric fermentation (e.g. cattle)Rice paddiesBiomass burningLandfillsAnimal wasteDomestic sewage

Nitrous oxide OceansTropical soils (wet forests, dry savannahs)Temperate soils (forests, grasslands)

Nitrogenous fertilizersIndustrial sourcesLand-use modification (biomass burning, forest clearing)Cattle and feed lots

Chlorofluorocarbons

Nil Rigid and flexible foamAerosol propellantsTeflon polymersIndustrial solvents

Source: (Goudie, 2000, p. 334)

Figure 8: Direct CO2 Levels from 2005-Present. http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

2.6 Changes in Land Use

Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas, as well as agriculture and land clearing influence the climate by increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases. When fossil fuels are burned, the process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2 contributing to changes in Earth’s climate.

Land-use changes, such as the cutting down of forests to create farmland, have changed the amount of sunlight reflected from the ground back into space. The trees that are lost can no longer absorb CO2. When trees are burned the carbon they stored is released into the atmosphere as CO2. When the cut trees decompose they produce methane – another GHG.

Figure 4. Deforestation: http://geographical.co.uk/places/forests/item/399-global-trade-is-key-driver-of-deforestationhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/rosaly-byrd/deforestation-the-overloo_b_5594821.html

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Activity: View the time series of global distribution and variation of the concentration of carbon dioxide at https://youtu.be/qHPySFHedxk .

3 CLIMATE CHANGE: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL AND NATIONAL AGENCIES

Climate change is a phenomenon that is affecting the entire globe. As a consequence, there is an international treaty that sets general goals and rules for confronting climate change. There are also international, regional and national agencies that set policy, conduct research and take action to mitigate against or adapt to the climate changes.

3.1 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992)

The UNFCCC is a multi-lateral environmental agreement, or MEA, which means that it is a legally binding agreement between three or more states relating to the environment. There are many MEAs and they are predominantly produced by the United Nations.  The main objective of the UNFCCC is:

to achieve… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner6.

One hundred and ninety seven countries are party to the convention, but only 81 have ratified it – that means that they have put a legal framework in place to support it at the national level. What is special about the UNFCCC is that it recognises that the industries in the developed countries bear most of the responsibility for climate change, and therefore it seeks to ensure that these countries will take the lead in combating it:

“common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.”

3.2 The Kyoto Protocol, 1997

The Kyoto Protocol is an additional agreement to the Convention. The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to doing so. It is a more powerful, legally binding agreement.

The Protocol made provision for market-based mechanisms to help countries meet their targets for reductions in GHG emissions. The tradable units used in each of these mechanisms are the equivalent to 1 tonne of CO2. The mechanisms are:

6 http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf

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Activity: Visit the UNFCCC website at http://unfccc.int/2860.php to learn more about this convention.

1. Emissions trading (the ‘carbon market’). Some countries have surplus emissions that they can use as a buffer to regain lost ground (as in the case of Eastern Europe). If they do not need to use this buffer the excess allowance can be traded to other countries that are struggling to reduce their emissions. This trade is measured in Assigned Amount Units (AAU). Japan has been a big AAU purchaser and the Czech Republic one of the main sellers. This component has come under criticism since the units do not reflect actual effort to reduce emissions.

2. The Clean Development Mechanism. This allows a country to undertake an emission reduction project in a developing country and earn tradable Certified Emission Reduction (CER) credits towards their own country’s targets. Examples of projects include: solar powered electrification of a rural area, installation of more efficient boilers in a plant or methane capture from landfills. These projects contribute to the sustainable development of the receiving country and at the same time reduce emissions.

3. Joint Implementation. A country with an emission reduction target can earn Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction - or emission removal - project in another country that also has its own targets (developed country), which can be counted towards meeting its Kyoto target. Joint implementation offers Parties a flexible and cost-efficient means of fulfilling a part of their Kyoto commitments, while the host Party benefits from foreign investment and technology transfer. An example of this is a UK company involved in landfill gas generation project in New Zealand.

3.3 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brings together thousands of scientists who conduct research in climate change. The IPCC was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), under the auspices of the United Nations (UN), to provide an unbiased, scientifically-grounded view of what is happening, and what may happen in the future, to the world’s climate.

There are currently 195 member countries of the IPCC. This list includes Barbados. In fact, one local Barbadian, Dr. Leonard Nurse who works at the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) at the University of the West Indies (UWI), has been engaged in the scientific assessments of the IPCC since 1990. The IPCC has 3 working groups that investigate 3 distinct areas:

Working Group 1: Assesses the physical science basis of climate change, including collation of a wide variety of data required for computer modelling and projections.

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Activity: Encourage the students/participants to research examples where countries have used the mechanisms. Have them write an essay or have a classroom discussion about the benefits and challenges of the mechanisms.

Working Group 2: Assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it. It also takes into consideration the inter-relationship between vulnerability, adaptation and sustainable development.

Working Group 3: Analyses the short- and long-term costs and benefits of mitigation of climate change, taking into account strategies to reduce emissions, and remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere in the main economic sectors.

Figure 9: Examples of the covers of the IPCC Assessment Reports

Since its creation, the IPCC has produced regular, comprehensive and scientifically-based assessments of climate change with the assistance of scientists from all over the world. It is these publications that provide us with much needed information on global climate change trends (See Figure 9).

Another important task undertaken by the IPCC is computer modelling of future climate change scenarios. These scenarios assess how different development choices may impact our climate in the future, helping decision makers to be able to make better informed decisions now on issues such as land use policy, infrastructure for increasing coastal resilience such as boardwalks, and comprehensive water resource management strategies.

The scenarios take into consideration a variety of possible options for factors such as population growth, policy decisions, technological developments and economic decisions. This information is then used to determine what the likely future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) might be, under these different options. The emissions, and the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, would vary according to the scenario that is used. It is the GHG concentration information that is then used in the IPCC computer models to see how the climate would respond in each case.

3.4 The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre

The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) is a grouping of twenty countries that strive to increase functional cooperation amongst its members and associate members. The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) is a CARICOM agency that opened in 2005 in Belize. The Centre coordinates the Caribbean region’s response to climate change by providing a number of services, including: archiving and acting as a clearing house for regional climate change data and documentation; providing climate change-related policy advice and guidelines to the CARICOM Member States through the CARICOM Secretariat. For more information about the 5Cs as it is called in the region, visit the website: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/

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3.5 Regional Framework for Achievement of Development Resilient to Climate Change.

In 2009 the CARICOM Heads of Government approved the Regional Framework for Achievement of Development Resilient to Climate Change. This framework has 5 strategic elements designed to integrate resilience into development strategies, and to involve all stakeholders, including civil society. They are:

1. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation strategies into the sustainable development agendas of CARICOM states.

2. Promoting the implementation of specific adaptation measures to address key vulnerabilities in the region. The identified key vulnerabilities are:

Water supply

Coastal and marine ecosystems

Tourism

Coastal infrastructure

Health

3. Promoting actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through fossil fuel reduction and conservation, and switching to renewable and cleaner energy sources.

4. Encouraging action to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems in CARICOM countries to the impacts of a changing climate.

5. Promoting action to derive social, economic, and environmental benefits through the prudent management of standing forests in CARICOM countries.

3.6 Ministry of Environment and Drainage

National responsibility for policy and planning for climate change in Barbados is coordinated by the Ministry of Environment and Drainage. In addition, each sector is responsible for developing climate change adaptation policies, programmes and projects. For example, the tourism sector, with support from the CCCCC and CERMES has created a National Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change Tourism Sector in Barbados. There have also been a number of projects implemented by the Coastal Zone Management Unit (CZMU) to safeguard the coastline of Barbados from storm surge and other effects of storms and hurricanes that will likely occur as a result of climate change – more on this in the next section. The CZMU project that is most well-known by the public is the Richard Haynes Boardwalk, which has been developed to protect the shoreline from erosion and at the same time provide pedestrian access to the beaches along that stretch of coastline.

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4 CURRENT EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The IPCC has concluded that there is a more than 90% probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in the Earth's temperatures over the past 50 years. The body of data collected by scientists over many years reveals the signals of a changing climate and that the global evidence for warming of the climate system is indisputable:

4.1 Global temperature rise

The Earth has warmed since 1880 and the change in global surface temperature is illustrated in Figure 10.

Figure 10: Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

As the Earth gets warmer there are a number of effects, which include:

Warming oceans

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Activity: Watch this video which shows the progression of changing global surface temperature anomalies from 1880 to 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWPzGo_C010&feature=youtu.be

Activity: Watch this video Oceans of Climate Change (http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/40/ ) which provides a look at the effect of climate change on the world’s oceans and the heat capacity of water.

The oceans absorbed much of the increased heat, with the warming occurring from the surface to a depth of about 2,300 feet (700 meters), where most marine life thrives.

Shrinking ice sheets

Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites show that, since 2002, Antarctica has been losing about 134 giga-tonnes7 of ice per year, while the Greenland ice sheet has been losing about 287 gigatonnes per year (Figure 11 and Figure 12).

Figure 11: Antarctica Mass Variation Since 2002. Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/

Figure 12: Greenland Mass Variation Since 2002. Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/land-ice/

Declining Arctic sea ice

7 A gigatonne is one billion tonnes!

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Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. The Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum each September and is now declining at a rate of 13.4% per decade (Figure 13).

Figure 13: Average Arctic Sea Ice Extent: Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

Glacial retreat

Glaciers are retreating across almost the entire world.

Figure 14: The retreating glaciers in Glacier National Park. Source: http://rockiesexpeditions.org/blog/

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Activity: Watch the animation of the annual Arctic sea ice minimum from 1979-2015 at https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a004400/a004435/seaIceWgraph_HD_1080p30.mp4.

Decreased snow cover

Satellite observations reveal that not only has the amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere decreased over the past 50 years but that the snow is melting earlier.8

Figure 15: Image: Snow cover in the Sierra Nevada in 2010 compared with 2015.Source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/14/claim-sierra-nevada-snowpack-lowest-in-five-centuries/

4.2 Sea level rise

When water gets heated it expands; so as global temperatures increase the level of the oceans also increases. In addition, as you saw in the previous sections, the increased temperatures are causing glaciers to melt and that water is also going into the oceans. Scientists state that the global sea level rose about 17 cm in the last century; however, the rate in the last decade is nearly double that of the last century 9. Figure 16 shows the change in sea level from 1993.

8 C. Derksen and R. Brown, "Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008-2012 period exceeding climate model projections," GRL, 39:L195049 Church, J. A. and N.J. White (2006), A 20th century acceleration in global sea level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826

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Activity: Watch this animation which shows changing snow cover from February 2000 to August 2016 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=MOD10C1_M_SNOW

Figure 16: An indicator of current global sea level as measured by satellites.

Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

In Module 2 we will provide diagrams of what this rise in sea level will mean for coastal communities in Barbados.

4.3 Extreme events

Another concern for us here in Barbados and the Caribbean is extreme weather – storms and hurricanes. As the world has warmed, the odds of more extreme weather events taking place have increased. Evidence of this is already present in the region:

Hurricane Matthew in 2016 reached Category 5 status, and caused widespread destruction on several islands with $10.5 US Billion in damage and the deaths of over 1600 people

Hurricane Tomas in 2010 resulted in heavy rainfall in Barbados; affected 2500 people and caused $74M BDS in damage. There were 71 deaths across the Caribbean

The hurricane “season” of 2005 broke many records, including:the occurrence of 27 named tropical storms for the first time since systematic record keeping began (14 hurricanes)The most powerful hurricane recorded in the Atlantic basin (Wilma, central barometric pressure of 882 mb)The first time three category 5 hurricanes have been recorded in the same year in the Atlantic basin)

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The highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Caribbean basin during July and August10

Early rains in Haiti in May 2004 - over 3000 people killedHurricane and drought (both in the same year) in Cuba 2004 Strong hurricane season activity in 2004 (e.g. Hurricane Ivan)Hurricane Lenny in 1999, the first storm in 113 years whose track extended from west to east across the Caribbean Sea. The event caused millions of dollars of damage due to surges, even though in several cases the system was several hundred kilometres offshoreHurricane season 1995: especially Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn

4.4 Ocean acidification

Another major concern for us in Barbados and the Caribbean is increased acidification of our oceans. The increased CO2 that has been produced during the Industrial Revolution is being absorbed into the oceans. This leads to a chemical reaction that causes the water of the oceans to become more acidic and that is having a negative impact on coral reefs. These reefs as you know are vital to the health of our beaches; protection of our shoreline in storms – because when the waves hit the reefs they decrease in energy as they come to shore – and also for our tourism industry.

10 Pulwarty, R., L. Nurse and U. Trotz. (2010) Caribbean Islands in a Changing Climate. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 52 (6): 15-27

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Figure 17: Coral reef before and after due to ocean acidification

Source:   http://www.ornl.gov/info/library/ornlnews/images/coral-reefs-algae-pnas.jpg

4.5 Closing comments

Scientists have predicted that long-term effects of climate change as shown in Figure 18 will impact our food supply, water resources, infrastructure, ecosystems, and even our own health11. Some of the potential impacts and areas for concern include:

Increased water scarcityChanges in biodiversityIncreased coral bleaching Increased flooding and erosionDegradation of groundwater and freshwater resourcesDegradation of coastal fisheries.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the extent of climate change effects on individual regions will vary over time and will primarily depend on the rate at which levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase as well as natural influences on climate.

Presently, at the global scale, scientists are using computer models of the climate system to better understand and project future climate changes. At a smaller scale, regional models take information from global models to run more detailed simulations of a smaller area at a better size and spacing (resolution). In the Caribbean, several institutions are working together to produce useful climate information of sufficiently high resolution which will give us an idea of what will happen in our region. The Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS) Caribbean Project focuses on how climate change could affect the countries within the Caribbean region12

To see some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change visit https://www2.usgs.gov/faq/categories/9772/5641 .

11 United States Environmental Protection Agency (2016). Future Climate Change. https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html# 12 Taylor, M. A., Centella, A., Charlery, J., Borrajero, I., Bezanilla, A., Campbell, J., & Watson, R. (2007). Glimpses of the future: a briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean climate change project. Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize, 24.

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Figure 18: Changes due to the warming of the atmosphere

Source: Jane Hawkey, Integration and Application Network, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science - http://ian.umces.edu/imagelibrary/displayimage-7789.html

In the next module we look more closely at the impacts of global climate change on our local water resources.

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What is Climate Change?

S C A R B O N D I O X I D E NW E D E J S G L P P G Y G H OS S S O N P D R Y Z C N C U IF E F A L A O K V Y A C C R TE P A I G T H M V H F B C R AZ J S L O E N T C W D E F I IP E P C E W S E E O U L N C DT Y O H R V T U T M D Y U A AW L N G X A E O O K Y U A N RS T O R M G Y L Z H I T I E RO M Q I T K B X R A N V M W AL X L P X Q U Q S I Q E M S LO C R E H T A E W G S Q E I OK P B E A Z S Y M D N E Y R SV P Z G D H L S L J H X R O G

CARBON DIOXIDE

CLIMATE CHANGE

GREENHOUSE GASES

HURRICANE

IPCC

KYOTO

METHANE

PROTOCOL

SEA LEVEL RISE

SOLAR RADIATION

STORM

UNFCCCWEATHER

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PLEASE CONTACT THESE AGENCIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

The Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) Website: http://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/cermes/home.aspx;Telephone: (246)417-4316; Fax: (246) 424-4204; E-mail: cermes@cavehill.uwi.edu

The Ministry of Environment and Drainage Website https://www.gov.bb/government-main/directory/ministry-of-environment/; Telephone: (246) 467-5700; Fax: (246) 437-8859; Email: evnirobdos@gov.bb

The Drainage Division: Telephone: (246) 426-9695 or (246) 4271609

The Coastal Zone Management Unit (CZMU) Website http://www.coastal.gov.bb/; Telephone: (246) 622-1610; Fax: (246) 228-5956; Email: info@coastal.gov.bb

The Barbados Water Authority (BWA) Website: http://barbadoswaterauthority.com/; Telephone: (246) 434-4200; Fax: (246) 435-3736; Email: bwa@caribsurf.com

The Environment Protection Department (EPD) Telephone: (246) 535-4600; Fax: (246) 228-7103; Email: enveng@caribsurf.com

The Natural Heritage Department (NHD) Website: http://www.heritage.gov.bb/; Telephone: (246) 438-7761; Fax:(246) 438-7767; Email: heritage@barbados.gov.bb

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food, Fisheries and Water Resource Management Website: http://www.agriculture.gov.bb/agri/; Telephone: (246) 535-5100; (246) 535-5257/8

The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) Website; http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/; Telephone: +(501) 822-1094(501) 822-1094 or +(501) 822-1104(501) 822-1104; Fax: +(501) 822-1365; E-mail: info@caribbeanclimate.bz

The United Nations Environment Programme Caribbean Environment Programme (UNEP CEP) Website: http://www.cep.unep.org/;

The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) Website: http://www.cimh.edu.bb/; Telephone: (246)-425-1362/3/5; Fax: (246)-424-4733

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