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8/7/2019 Technical for STOCKS &Derivative 01-03-2011
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DOW THEORYDOW THEORY
1. The average discount everything.2. There are 3 trends in the market, namely, Primary trends,
Intermediate trends and Minor trends.
2.1 Primary trend ( >= 1Year).
- Primary up trend (Bull Market).
- Primary down trend (Bear Market).
2.2 Intermediate trend (3 Weeks - Years).
- Primary intermediate trend.
- Secondary intermediate trend.
- Intermediate decline or correction.
- Intermediate rally or recovery.
2.3 Minor trend (=< 3 Weeks).
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DOW THEORYDOW THEORY
3. Primary up trend usually have 3 up move- Accumulate - Collection - Boom phase
4. Primary down trend usually have 3 down
move.
- Distribution - Panic - Consolidation
5. Price / Volume relationships provide
background.
6. Only closing price are used.
7. A trend remains effective until a reversal.
8. Price action determines the trend.
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1
2 -3 5
10
4 5 6
7 (Cut Loss)
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1. ;
2. ;
3. 4.
5. Risk Tolerance NAV
Portfolio6. Asset Allocation
7.
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Technical Analysis
2 1. ( )2. ( )
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??
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Process of Stock InvestmentProcess of Stock Investment
Decision MakingBuy Stocks
Sell StocksPortfolio Management Strategy
Decision Instrument
Forecast Long Term Trend-ARC Cycle- Elliott Wave Theory
- Fibonacci Objective- Fibonacci Retracement
- GANNs Theory- Dow Theory- Psychology- Fundamental
- International Environment Factor- Globalization- Free Trade Area(AFTA, EU, NAFTA etc.)
- Forex & Commodities- Bonds & Derivatives
- National Environment Factor- Systematic Risk
- Market Risk- Political Risk- Currency exchange Risk- Interest rate Risk- Inflation Risk
-Unsystematic Risk- Industry Risk- Company Risk
IIPoint & Figure ChartsLINE ChartsBAR ChartsCandle Stick ChartsRENKO ChartsKAGI Charts3-LINES BREAK Charts
IIIMoving AverageFan LineSpeed Line
Fibonacci LineFibonacci Arc.Bollinger BandsParaboric sarGloden & Dead cross
IIAD-Line
Foreign NETbuy / sellChart
- OBV
- ROC
- Volume
IIIOscillatorsInstrument
- MACD-14 RSI- 10 -Days Momentum- Stochastic5 %K3%D
- CCI- CHIKINS- Directorial Indicator
- etc.
IPrice Pattern Break Out
- Down Trend Channel
- Up Trend Channel- Down Trend Line- Up Trend Line- Bullish Divergence- Bearish Divergence
ICycle Low
Cycle Peak
Fibonacci Time Zone
Advisor Instruments
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Decision Making
Decision Instrument
IIPoint & Figure Charts
LINE Charts
BAR Charts
Candle Stick ChartsRENKO Charts
KAGI Charts
3-LINES BREAK Charts
IIIMoving Average
Fan Line
Speed Line
Fibonacci Line
Fibonacci Arc.
Bollinger Bands
Paraboric sar
Gloden & Dead cross
IPrice Pattern Break Out
- Down Trend Channel
- Up Trend Channel
- Down Trend Line- Up Trend Line
- Bullish Divergence
- Bearish Divergence
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Advisor Instruments
IIAD-Line
Foreign NET buy
/ sell Chart
- OBV
- ROC
- Volume
IIOscillators Instrument
- MACD- 14 RSI
- 10 -Days Momentum
- 8REI (Range
Expansion Index)
- Stochastic 5%K3%D
- William %R
- CCI
- CHIKINS
- Directorial Indicator
- etc.
ICycleLow
CyclePeak
Fibonaccitime
zone
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1414
1. Marketaction discounts everything ;
( ) ( - )Buy Signal Buy Signal / Sell signal Sell signal2. Prices movein trends ; 2.1 ( Up trend ) ;
; > ; Buy Signal - Sell Signal - Open Long Open Short Stop Loss 2.2 ( Down trend ) ;
; > ;
Sell Signal Buy Signal -
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1515
2.3 ( Side ways ) ; ( = )2.3.1Sideways (MajorTrend ) - Continues Pattern
Wait & See Square Position 1-2
2.3.2 Sideways (Major Trend )
ReversalPattern - Volume CyclePeak -
Bearish Divergence False Buy Signal ( Bull Trap ) Sell SignalReversal Pattern
2.3.3 Sideways (Major Trend ) ReversalPattern Volume CyclePeak
-
Bullish Divergence
False Sell Signal ( Bear Trap ) Buy Signal
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33 DerivativeDerivative11..11 (( Buy SignalBuy Signal -- SETSET 5050 FUTURESFUTURES -- ))11..22 (( Buy SignalBuy Signal Sell SignalSell Signal ))
44 -- (( DailyDailyTrend )Trend )
22..11 SidewaysSideways DerivativeDerivative 22..22
Stocks &Stocks & SETSET 5050FUTURESFUTURES 22..33 Stocks & SETStocks & SET 5050
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77 SETSET 5050 33 (( ))PeakPeak
( Bullish Sentiment )( Bullish Sentiment ) (( ))OpenLong FuturesOpenLong Futures ContactsContacts
FuturesFutures SETSET 5050 Short CloseShort CloseFuturesFutures SETSET 5050
( Switching )( Switching ) OpenLongOpenLongFuturesFutures
SETSET 5050 Sell SignalSell Signal Open ShortFuturesOpen ShortFutures
88. SET. SET 5050 33 (( ))BottomBottom ( Bearish Sentiment( Bearish Sentiment ))
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SET 50 ( Stocks ) ?
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SET 50 Sma.50 Open Long
Sma.50
Sma.150
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SET 50 Sma.50 Open Short
Sma.50
Sma.150
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Short Term ( 1-5 days ) Trading FUTURES
BY TECHNICAL ANLYSIS
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TRADING FUTURES BY TECHNICAL ANLYSIS
1. SET 50 30 Candle sticks
BarChart
Modified Stochastic
Period Stochastic = 20.0 , %D = 5.0 % K = 5.0 2. ( SMA. ) SET 50 3
2.1 Simple Moving Average 21 - 2.2 SimpleMoving Average 54 -
2.3 Simple Moving Average 130
( OpenLongorOpen short ) 3. Modified Stochastic OverBoughtOverSold LongorShort
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SMA.130
SMA.54
SMA.21
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TRADING FUTURES BY TECHNICAL ANLYSIS
Open Long1. SET 50
Simple Moving Average 130 (
)
2.Open Long SET50 3 ( SMA. 21, 54 ,130 ) Modified Stochastic % K %D ( )
ReversalPattern Double TripleBottom Triangle Falling Wedge3. Short Close SET 50 SMA.21 (
) Modified Stochastic
%K
%D
() OverBought 4.Open Long() SET 50 SMA.130 ( ) Modified Stochastic % K %D ( ) OverSold 5. Simple Moving Average 54
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Open
Long
Open
LongOpen
Long
Short
CloseShort
Close
Short
Close
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TRADING FUTURES BY TECHNICAL ANLYSIS
Open Short1. SET 50
Simple Moving Average 130 (
)
2.Open Short SET50 3 ( SMA. 21, 54 ,130 )
Modified Stochastic % K %D ( ) ReversalPattern Double Triple TOP Triangle RisingWedge
3. Long Close SET 50 SMA.21 ( ) Modified Stochastic % K %D() OverSold 4.Open Short() SET 50 SMA.130 ( ) Modified Stochastic % K %D
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Triple Top OpenShort
Open
Short Open
Short
Open
Short
Long
CloseLong
Close
LongClose
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Work Shop
Technical - &
; AD 1 AD7 ; AD 1 & AD 2
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AD 1 ; 30- 1-3 ()
(
)
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AD 2 ; Daily Chart & 14 RSI & OBV
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AD 3 ; Close Price & Junior Oscillator
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AD 4 ; Medium To Long Term Analysis
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AD 5 ; Medium to Long Term Analysis
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AD 6 ; Target Momentum &Short Term (2-4% Collection )
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AD 7 ; Target Momentum &Medium Term ( > 4% Collection )
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Decision Making
Decision Instrument
IIPoint & Figure Charts
LINE Charts
BAR Charts
Candle Stick ChartsRENKO Charts
KAGI Charts
3-LINES BREAK Charts
IIIMoving Average
Fan Line
Speed Line
Fibonacci Line
Fibonacci Arc.
Bollinger Bands
Paraboric sar
Gloden & Dead cross
IPrice Pattern Break Out
- Down Trend Channel
- Up Trend Channel
- Down Trend Line
- Up Trend Line
- Bullish Divergence
- Bearish Divergence
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Line Chart Bar Chart Candle Stick Chart
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Candle Stick Chart
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Simple Moving Avg. 25 Day
Exponential Moving Avg. 25 Day
Weighted Moving Avg. 25 Day
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Exponential Moving Avg. 5 ,10 &25 Day
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THANKYOU