Upload
danglien
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
6/1/2017
1
Technological Change; Economic Repercussions; & Their Impact on Disability Risk
MATT CLARK, MUNICH RE
GWEN STOVEKEN, PRUDENTIAL
AgendaHistorical Perspective
Current State / Recent Headlines
Industry Outlook◦ Finance / Manufacturing / Retail
Looking Ahead◦ Economic Repercussions
◦ Occupational Shifts
Impact on Disability Risk
Open Discussion / Conclusion
6/1/2017
2
Historical Perspective:
The Luddite FallacyThe Luddite Fallacy is the simple observation that new technology does not lead to higher overall unemployment in the economy. New technology doesn't destroy jobs – it only changes the composition of jobs in the economy.
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/6717/economics/the‐luddite‐fallacy/
20 things we don't do anymore because of technology
Memorize a phone number
Use a phone book to find a company to do work around your house
Park your used car on the street with a sign that says it’s for sale
Do math in your head
Call a family member to ask where they are
Tell time by the hands on a clock
Make photo albums
Own a CD or record collection
Make mix tapes
Call a theater to get movie times
Record your favorite programs on tape
Watch shows when they are broadcast
Run to the store for a last‐minute gift
Cut things out of the newspaper
Send a handwritten letter
Look up how to spell a word
Use a phone booth
Carry enough change to make a phone call
Use a travel agent
Get your old checks back from the bank every month
6/1/2017
3
Current State:Recent Headlines
Current State:Recent Headlines
◦ Will smarter machines cause mass unemployment automation and anxiety – The Economist
6/25/2016
◦ Robots Will Take Jobs, but Not as Fast as Some Fear, New Report Says – NYT 1/12/2017
◦ Wendy’s to add self ordering kiosks to cut costs – NY Post 2/27/2017
◦ The surprising reason some millennials may be buying new cars – Washington Post 2/2/2017
◦ Automation and Employment in the 21st Century – WSJ 3/10/2017
◦ How AI Is Transforming the Workplace – WSJ 3/10/2017
◦ Is American Retail at a Historic Tipping Point? – NYT 4/15/2017
6/1/2017
4
Current State:Recent Headlines
The rate at which companies are filing for bankruptcy is spiking – Business Insider 4/10/2017
Early 2016 saw an uptick in Energy related bankruptcies while Retail has taken over at the end of the year
Industry OutlookLet’s review three Industries based on recent Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bankruptcy Announcements:
◦ Finance, Manufacturing, and Retail
◦ Comparing 2011 occupation numbers to 2015 statistics in two instances
◦ 4 year period, just slightly longer than most rate guarantees
◦ Which occupations are growing and shrinking significantly
◦ Types give an insight into potential future impact
◦ Where is viability for work likely to be based on what we can observe
6/1/2017
5
Finance
Finance Trends of NoteEmployment levels in 2015 versus 2011
•Winners –• Financial Specialists employed 700,000 in 2015, up by nearly 10% since 2011
• Computer Occupations employed nearly 200,000, up by 18%
• Business Operations employed around 150,000, up nearly 11%
• Mathematical Sciences employed only 20,000, but, up nearly 35%
• Losers –• Financial Clerks (includes Bank Tellers) employed nearly 650,000, down by 10%
• Office and Administrative Support employed around 110,000, down nearly 30%
• Supervisors and Other Support workers employ relatively fewer, but, mostly down
• Roughly flat overall 3.4 mil total employed in 2011 versus 2015
6/1/2017
6
Manufacturing
Manufacturing Trends of NoteEmployment levels in 2015 versus 2011
Winners – Transportation Equipment employed nearly 1.6 mil workers, up nearly 18% Food employed 1.5 mil workers, up modestly at 4% Fabricated Metal and Machinery, both employ many, up 11% and 9% respectively Many others employing less, up significantly, manufacturing has been robust in general
Losers – Computer and Electronic products employed 1.2 mil, but was down by 5% Printing and related products employed 420,000 and was down 6% Paper Mfg. employed 390,000, down by 5% Apparel employed around 110,000, down by nearly 15%
Slight increase from 11.5 mil employed in 2011 versus 12.2 in 2015
6/1/2017
7
RetailRecent announcements on Bankruptcies and Store closings tell the tale:
◦ Sears and Kmart announced 150 2017 closings and admitted concerns as a viable entity moving forward
◦ J C Penney store closings total 138 stores in 2017
◦ Macy’s closing 68 stores in a number of locations in 2017
◦ Kohls announced it will be shrinking store sizes rather than closures in 2017
◦ HH Gregg closed all 220 stores in April
◦ Many of these take place at the same malls
◦ As a result, related retailers are impacted by less foot traffic:◦ The Limited announced all 250 stores closing in 1/2017
◦ Aeropostale filed for bankruptcy and closed all stores around the same timeframe
◦ Others included American Eagle, Chicos, Finish Line and the Children’s Place chain as well
◦ Men’s Warehouse and Jos A Banks merged and store closings occurred as well
Retail Trends of NoteFrom the Atlantic – April 2017 ‐What in the World Is Causing the Retail Meltdown of 2017?
◦ Three Basic Trends Noted:
◦ Brick and Mortar vs. Online continues to increase – Half of US Households are Amazon Prime subscribers
◦ But – entire industries have changed as well – i.e.: Books and Music purchases
◦ America built too many malls
◦ There are nearly 1,200 malls in the U.S. today – in 10 years, that number is expected to drop 900
◦ Americans are shifting their spending from goods
◦ Dramatic change in spending habits post Great Recession
◦ Spending on clothing is down substantially
◦ Spending has shifted to substantial increases in at Food Services and Drinking spots
◦ In 2016, more money was spent at these establishments than grocery stores for the first time
6/1/2017
8
Looking Ahead:What Does the Future Hold?
Looking Ahead◦ 2013 Oxford University study estimates that 47% of jobs in the US could be automated in the future
◦ Already seeing many elements of manual labor being replaced by machines, but now seeing an increase in the use of artificial intelligence as well
◦ Moore’s Law* – compounding effect of technological advancements and impact on cost of implementing automation
◦ The Internet of Things (IOT) – everything that can be connected, will be connected
*Moore's law refers to an observation made by Intel co‐founder GordonMoore in 1965. He noticed that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since their invention. Moore's law predicts that this trend will continue into the foreseeable future.
6/1/2017
9
Economic RepercussionsBenefits◦ Increased convenience for consumers = more free time
◦ Lower production costs = lower prices = more disposable income to be spent elsewhere
◦ New types of jobs will be created; potentially creating a more flexible workforce
Concerns◦ Not everyone will benefit equally from automation
◦ Potential for higher unemployment rates
◦ Inability to find equivalent employment
Occupational Shifts:Jobs in DangerBet You Didn't See This Coming: 10 Jobs That Will Be Replaced By Robots – Fast Company – 1/19/2017◦ Insurance Underwriters And Claims Representatives
◦ Bank Tellers And Representatives
◦ Financial Analysts
◦ Construction Workers
◦ Inventory Managers And Stockers
◦ Farmers
◦ Taxi Drivers
◦ Manufacturing Workers
◦ Journalists
◦ Movie Stars
6/1/2017
10
Occupational Shifts:What New Jobs Are Being Created?
Tech/Data/IT◦ DATA SCIENTIST
◦ JAVASCRIPT DEVELOPER
◦ NETWORK SECURITY ENGINEER
◦ TRADING TECH PROGRAMMER
Health Care◦ TELE‐PSYCHIATRIST
◦ NURSE EDUCATOR
10 in‐demand Chicago jobs in 2017 – Crain's 1/14/2017
Technically Skilled Labor◦ INTERNET–OF–THINGS–SAVVY ELECTRICIAN
◦ WIND TECHNICIAN
Finance/Sales/Nonprofits◦ SPORTS SPONSORSHIP CONSULTANT
◦ DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR
Impact on Disability RiskFood for thought:◦ Education needs are changing rapidly, and schools are challenged to keep up
◦ Where should the government intervene?
◦ As jobs are automated or phased out, will incidence levels increase?
◦ Will return to work become more difficult (additional skills, education, training could be required for comparable positons)?
◦ Will our contract language be sufficient to manage rapidly changing job duties?
◦ Will LTD continue to be viable?
◦ Should we be concerned about requests for extended rate guarantees?
◦ What else should we be thinking about?
6/1/2017
11
Conclusion◦ The employment landscape will continue to evolve as a result of ongoing technological advances and automation
◦ Some existing jobs will become obsolete, but new jobs will be created, and there will be a shift in the types of skills that are required to perform these jobs
◦ As Disability underwriters, we need to be aware of the impact these changes will have on the type of work being performed by the employees we are covering and continue to demonstrate our value by adapting our approach to risk assessment accordingly...how else will we keep the robots from taking our jobs???
Sourceshttp://www.economicshelp.org/blog/6717/economics/the‐luddite‐fallacy/
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2017/05/06/20‐things‐dont‐do‐anymore‐because‐technology.html
http://www.economist.com/news/special‐report/21700758‐will‐smarter‐machines‐cause‐mass‐unemployment‐automation‐and‐anxiety
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/12/technology/robots‐will‐take‐jobs‐but‐not‐as‐fast‐as‐some‐fear‐new‐report‐says.html?_r=0
http://nypost.com/2017/02/27/wendys‐to‐add‐self‐ordering‐kiosks‐to‐cut‐costs/
http://www.investors.com/politics/policy/wendys‐serves‐up‐kiosks‐as‐wages‐rise‐hits‐fast‐food‐group/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2017/02/28/the‐surprising‐reason‐some‐millennials‐may‐be‐buying‐new‐cars/?utm_term=.c1cacb9b5c06
http://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2017/03/10/automation‐and‐employment‐in‐the‐21st‐century/
6/1/2017
12
Sources (continued)https://www.wsj.com/articles/how‐ai‐is‐transforming‐the‐workplace‐1489371060
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/15/business/retail‐industry.html?_r=0
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail‐meltdown‐of‐2017/522384/
http://www.businessinsider.com/commercial‐bankruptcy‐filings‐2017‐4
www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mooreslaw.asp
https://www.fastcompany.com/3067279/robot‐revolution/you‐didnt‐see‐this‐coming‐10‐jobs‐that‐will‐be‐replaced‐by‐robots
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20170114/ISSUE01/170119948/in‐demand‐chicago‐jobs‐in‐2017
http://www.investors.com/politics/policy/wendys‐serves‐up‐kiosks‐as‐wages‐rise‐hits‐fast‐food‐group/
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2017/05/06/20‐things‐dont‐do‐anymore‐because‐technology.html