Technology Lectures

8/17/2019 Technology Lectures

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Technology

Lecture 1

The Impact of Technology- Organizational oferings (products, services and their means o delivery)- Organizational Operations (back-end processes)- ustomer and !orker e"pectations o organizations

The Tao Macro Trends (Big Issues)- Convergence # concerns a process o emergence o boundary loss$ o many tending

to one%- Technological Determinism # &o 'hat e"tend is technology the driver o

organizational and social change Technological Determinists argue that technologyand its invention change the 'orld (socially, organizationally and culturally)% Others,taking more interest perspectives* contend that technology is not an actor, and thatsocial and economic changes lead to ne' uses o and demands or technology (such assmartphones or the internet)%

- A non-deterministic point of view + technology is not an organized institution$ ithas no members or stated positions$ nor does it initiate actions% o' can 'e reasonablythink o this abstract, disembodied, .uasi-metaphysical entity/ as the initiator oactions capable o controlling human destiny0 (ar" 2 3mith, cited in 4dams 1556)%

owever&he development o ull arti7cial intelligence could spell the end o the human race% 8t'ould take of on its o'n, and re-design itsel at an ever increasing rate/umans, 'hoare liited by slo' biological evolution, couldn*t compete, and 'ould be superseded0(3tephen a'kins, 9ecember :;14 computers are on thehorizon%

- &echnology and lie must share some undamental essence* (and are converging)- &echnology is no ?ust physical@ eg a computer program is technology/

"elly on the Technium- 8 computer code # tech, so # sonnet by 3hakespeare% Aoth produced by mind B

inCuenced by human behaviour%- 4ll culture >o + ulture ails to convey technologys self propelling momentum'- Delly introduces Technium' to label the greater, global, massively interconnected

system o technology vibrating around us*%- 4rgues # technium accelerates the invention o (individual) technologies*

Deterministic Technology- &he technium is sel-reinorcing system o creation*- 4t some point in evolution, our system o tools and machines and ideas became so

dense in eedback loops and comple" interactions that it spa'ned a bit oindependence% 8t began to e"ercise some autonomy*

- Is the technium now a social actor' ow many neurons do you need to havea mind*

+epeating Techno- ,conomic revolution- >e' developments in tech changes nature o communications and hence business%

- =verybody invested on the back o the ne' economy* and the 7nancial markets 'entmad%- &hen the bubble burst/- o'ever, organizational habits had been transormed%


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- +epeating Cycles of Techno-,conomic revolution canals in late 1E;;*s, Fail'aysin 1GH;*s and 1G


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4ecture /The 5e1t Industrial !ave

- !e kno' that 'e 'ill have to produce more 'ith less + and 'ith diferent ra' materials- &his re.uires material 'astage to be reduced, production to more closely match

demand, and more local manuacture%- any ne' technologies likely to be involved, including Hd printing, synthetic bio,

vertical arming and nanotech%

Traditional Manufacturing- etal components and 'ooden items # manuactured using subtractive machining (eg

cutting, drilling and lathing)- any other components and casings are either cast (metal) or in?ection or rotation

molded (plastics),- &he cost o producing molds and other production tooling is substantial%- 3ubtractive machining 'astes ra' materials- &raditional anuacturing # ma?ority o costs are oten attributed to tooling, material

'astage, storage, transportation and other logistics%

6D 7rinting- H9 Krinters turn digital models into physical things by building them up in layers that

are typically about ;%1mm thin%- 4lready 'e can H9 print in hundreds o materials, including plastics and metals%- Ay :;:;, most H9 printed ob?ects 'ill no longer be prototypes%- 4lready the aerospace, automotive and medical sectors are using Hd printing to make

some 7nal products or parts thereo%

7otential Bene8ts- 9igital product (and spare part) storage and transportation, 'ith on-demand

production%- ass local manuacturing (localization)- ass customization and personalization- &ime, aterial and energy savings%- Feduced re.uirement to assemble 7nal parts%- Jacilitation o rapid product innovation%- Jacilitation o lo'-cost access to market%

6D 7rinting Technologies- aterial e"trusion (s.uirting out a semi-solid)- Khotopolymerization (solidiying a li.uid 'ith light)- at phoyopolymerization (eg sterelithography)- aterial ?etting (poly?et)

- Mranular materials binding (sticking po'ders)- Ainder ?etting- Ko'der bed usion (eg laser sintering)- 9irected energy deposition- 3heet Lamination (sticking cut sheets together)

+apid 7rototyping- H9 printers to create concept models or unctional copies o ne' products to allo'

design, 7t or unction to be assessed%- Molds 9 Tooling Nse o Hd printers to create traditional manuacturing

inrastructure%

6D :and Casting; ,1


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- :tandard Alloys Kroduced a E inch impeller casting rom concept to completion inunder G 'eeks%

- Morel Industries reduced casting lead times or an e"haust maniold rom to :'eeks, cost per batch rom Gk to 1:;; and scrap rate rom 5P to 1P%Direct Digital Manufacturing (DDM) &he process o going directly rom anelectronic digital representation o a part to the 7nal product via additivemanuacturing0 + 3ociety o anuacturing =ngineers

Drivers of DDM Lo' run or one of production- ost reduction- aterial 3avings and energy eQciency- ustomization- ealthcare 4pplications- Localization

7ersonal .a3rication Keople making their o'n stuf

Brave 5ew !orld- H9 Krinting could help us create a more sustainable economy + or it could threaten its

very oundations%

- o' can intellectual property be controlled to prevent ob?ect privacy*- o' can health and saety regulations be implemented to prevent unsae products- an H9 printed 'eapons be controlled- !hat 'ill be the impact on employment and corporate ecosystems


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4ecture 6:ynthetic Biology 9 >ertical .arming

Biotech 9 2enetic ,ngineering- >atural ermentation processes have been used or centuries to produce (eg

heeseIRoghurt)%

- Mrating B selective breeding has also been used to manipulate plants and animals%- o'ever, M is increasingly used to manipulate plants, animals B micro-organisms,and hence to e"pand biotechnology application%

- &he 7rst MO 'as modi7ed =%oli bacterium created by ohen 2 Aoyer in 15EH%

2M Milestones15E< # &ransgenic mice 'ith leukemia genes15G: # N3 J94 approved 7rst genetically engineered 9rug (8nsulin rom Menentech)15G6 # M &obacco created (lucierase gene inserted rom a 7reCy)155< # algene*s Jlavr 3avr tomato%155 # ontanso introduces M corn%:;;6 # Omega H pig created%

Moing Jurther # &oday 5;P o N3 corn, cotton and soybeans is M%On 15th >ovember :;1, the 4.ua4dvantage 3almon rom 4.uabounty tech 'as licensed orhuman consumption by the J94%

:ynthetic Biology uses engineering principles to design and construct living things + orsynthetically modi7ed organisms (3O) rom standardized parts%&he programming o 9>4 and reormatting o genetic circuitry/ has created a paradigm shit'hereby the analysis o biology is being supplanted by its synthesis0 (8ntere"on)%

- Juture bioactories may cultivate uels, plastics, medicines, bioelectronics/ and armore%

- Ay :;1G, 3ynbio 'ill be 'orth S11%5bn

The ,ngineering 7rinciple- &he key engineering principle o modular standardization is core to 3ynAio, 'ith the

ne' discipline looking at living systems not as comple" ob?ects0, but as sources oamazing building blocks0 + =F43ynAio :;1


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Jactories on legs0 have also already been created% 8ncluding transgenic 3pider goats0 byFandy Le'is%

:ynthetic Biology Implications• 4s 3ynAio turns lie into a production technology, the possibilities are e"traordinary%• Aut so are the concerns and .uestions raised%•

Jor the 7rst time, production technology 'ill be able to sel-replicate + and even inter-breed• 8t 'ill not be as easy to control actories on legs as 3 micro-organisms%• 4lready pigs are being humanized0 to produce human organs% 4nd in time

bioelectronics• o' 'ill 8K be managed• 4nd 'here 'ill the biomass come rom % % %

>ertical .arming• ertical arms are skyscrapers used to cultivate crops and raise animals 'ithin cities%

Nsing 9M*, they could permit a level o urban ood and other biomass sel-suQciency%

• 4 key advocate is 9ickson 9espommier + 'ho believes 'e could soon be producing'heat, rice, corn, potatoes, chickens and 7sh in cities%

• Aaner?ee 2 4denaeur (:;1ertical .arm 4ogistics• 7roviding plants with enough light 'ill be a ma?or challenge + to be met 'ith

innovative architecture, transparent materials, light redirection technologies, and L=9gro' lamps%

• ,nergy re.uirements + eg rom 'ind turbines or solar po'er% 9espommier suggestsplasma arc gasi7cation (K4M) to burn organic 'aste%

• :terile environments 'ill needed%• Commercial via3ility@ vertical arms may be 1;s to 1;;s o times more eQcient per

acre than conventional arms % % %

>ertical .arm Critics ? ? ?• 3ome (eg Meorge onbiot) argue that vertical arming 'ill be too comple" and

e"pensive%• Others believe that vertical arms 'ill consume too much energy to be sustainable%• o'ever, proponents counter that traditional arming is heavily subsidized, and that

ood security may re.uire a shit to indoor gro'ing%


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• &he commercial and logistical viability o vertical arms mayI'ill alter post Keak Oil, asood transportation becomes less possible%

• Kotential is highest in deserts and mega-cities%

+eal >ertical .arms ? ? ?• &he Klant in hicago is in an old meat packing actory, and eatures a zero-net-'aste,

closed-loop a.uaponics system gro'ing vegetables and raising &ilapia(plantchicago?com)%

• 4 purpose-built, H story demonstration vertical arm has been built in 3u'on in 3outhDorea%

• 8n 3ingapore, 3ky Mreens is selling produce rom it*s 4-Mo-Mro vertical arm(s@ygreens?com) + see Tutorial One video%

• &he revolutionary 2uangming smartcity in hina 'ill include G; vertical arms % % %

The +ise of =r3an Agriculture• ertical arms may become both a reality and an iconic metaphor or urban ood

production%• Mreen 'alls are already being created + both on the inside and outside o city buildings%• ydroponic systems such as >erticrop are additionally being trialled 'ith much

success%• ro'dsourcing initiatives like the !indowfarms 7roect are also taking hold (see

our?windowfarms?org)%

A 5ew Bioeconomy*• 4 great deal o uture localized manuacturing could be biological%• 4 combination o synthetic biology and urban agriculture ofers the potential or ra'

materials and 7nal products to be sourced in ne' 'ays%• !e may even create entirely ne' kinds o products + producing ne' rather than oldthings in ne' 'ays%

• 8t is only airly recently that most o the things 'e purchase have been inorganic % % %

The 5e1t 2eneration Cloud• any ne"t generation computing developments depend on collaborative sot'are

applications, cloud-based data storage, and the ability to cro'dsource%• 4s Moogle, icrosot, Jacebook and ua'ei are starting to demonstrate, efective voice

and vision recognition are unlikely to be local applications, 'ith virtual assistants andother 48 apps likely to be cloud-based%

Implementation Concerns• any people have concerns about cloud computing@ 'ill the vendor be reliable !ill the

service be secure !hat about lock-in 4nd under 'hich legal ?urisdiction 'ill the databe stored

• &he biggest security risk remains probably remains end users and their (cloud access)devices + esp% ARO9%

•


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• >e' apps can no' role out in a e' 'eeks0 rather than si" months, 'hile other clientscan be onboarded .uickly%

4ecture 5anoTechnology + engineer physical matter on a molecular or atomic scaleoined by 9re"ler, popularized in 1G6 book =ngines o reation>anotech is taken as any process that 'orks at a level o precision bet'een 1 and 1;;

nanometres%9re"ler*s discipline # ounding ocus 'as on the potential or atomically precisemanuacturing (4K>) using nanomachines*%

Introducing 5anoTech (Mer@le)anuactured products # made rom atoms% Kroperties depend on ho' atoms are arranged%Fe-arranged coal # diamond% Fearranged sand atoms # microchipsurrent manuacturing methods are crude at molecular level%

Current 5anotech Applications- 8n :;1< Kro?ect o =merging >anotechnologies reported over 16;;B nano enabled*

consumer products%- 8ncluding microprocessors, computer memory, OL=9 screens, batteries, solar cells, etc

The 5ational Interest8n :;;1 N3 gov launched : year >ational >anotech initiative (>>8) # over S:1bn invested%Ko'er o nanotech # rooted in its potential to transorm and revolutionize multiple tech andindustry sectors, including aerospace, agriculture, biotechnology, homeland security andnational deence, energy, environmental improvement, inormation technology, medicine andtransportation0 (>>8)%

7olitics Ta@e Control6; national nanotech initiatives including the >>3& in hina%

>anotech # one o hina*s 1: mega pro?ects under its Medium and Long Term DevelopmentPlan 2006 – 20209re"ler and others remain critical, arguing nanotech agenda has been hi?acked andbroadened to embrace ar more than nanomachines and 4K%8n particular, 9re"ler contends that, in pursuit o short-term paybacks, critical (molecular)sciences have been e"cluded%

.ull +ange of 7ossi3ilitiesTop Down 5anotech; Jabrication o nanostructures eg microprocessors and microchipsKroduction and application o nanomaterials (eg carbon nanotubes and graphene)Kroduction and application o nanocomposites B nanocoatings%Bottom =p 5anotech; 4K via positional assembly (moving individual atoms around 'ith

tools)%4K via sel-assembly (no production tools)%

Microprocessor +evolution &hey are microprocessors0 and memory chips0, manuactured using nanolithography0%


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Nses N light to pro?ect images o circuits onto plastic 7lms atop silicon 'aers%hemical processes are used to develop* the images into nanoscale components%Ay :;:;, likely to be :; billion transistor KN*s 'ith some components 1;; atoms 'ide%3paced at : atom intervals%

5anomaterials &'o nanotech materials 'ith e"traordinary potential are carbon nanotubes (>&*s) andgraphene%

arbon nanotubes are he"agonal lattices o carbon atoms bonded into tubes a e'nanometres in diameter%Mraphene is a single layer o carbon atoms arranged in honeycomb matri"%3trong, Ce"ible and have high electrical conductivity%

C5T 2raphene Applications>& o graphene electrodes # increase the capacity o uture rechargeable batteries%Mraphene may also be used to make ultracapacitors (charge in seconds) as 'ell as thinCe"ible solar cells that may be able to be sprayed onto any surace%Mraphene could also increase L=9 eQciency # as 'ell as replacing indium in OL=9 screens +allo'ing lo' po'er, Ce"ible displays that do not incorp precious metals%

5anocomposites nanocoatings>anocomposites # traditional materials mi"ed 'ith nanoscale additive%4lready plastics, paints and glass have been strengthened by adding >&*s, or made byadding silver nanoparticles%Mraphene H9 ab # adding graphene to 7laments in a bit to print 'orking electronics%>anocoatings # nano additives stuck to surace o traditional materials%=M titanium dio"ide nanocoatings # used to make sel cleaning glass%

Top Down 5anotech Implications8n ne"t 1; years, improved materials are going to be available that 'ill allo' ne' products tobe made%=conomic implications # very signi7cant%>anote" # makes coatings that make clothing 'ater B stain resistant%

7ositional Assem3lyJorm o bottom up nanotech uses large scale machinery to build things by moving aroundindividual atoms%=M in 15G5 8A =igler used a scanning tunnelling microscope to 'rite the 8A logo in H"enon atoms%

:elf Assem3ly3el-assembly is a orm o bottom-up nanotechnology + or atomically precise manuacturing

(4K) + in 'hich nanoscale parts ft themselves together ithout the intervention o! production tools % % %

7rotein ,ngineerng 9 Beyond ? ? ?Menetic engineers and synthetic biologists already build 9>4 chains using sel-assembly%!e are also learning ho' to read, cut and paste molecular chains using enzymes (bacterialmolecular machines)%!e kno' that some protein molecules + such as those in animal muscle or bacteria + servebasic mechanical unctions%8n time, protein engineers may thereore learn to use a construction kit0 o proteins to buildcomple", nanoscale mechanical mechanisms using sel-assembly methods%

7roduction !ithout Tools3eptember :;1, researchers at VNL demonstrated the sel-assembly o comple", tubulartissue structures%


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4rti7cially building comple" shapes rom proteins and peptides using the natural0 processeso gro'th and healing (in simple terms, they mi"ed t'o chemicals to build a pre-determinedshape)%olecular chains called oldamers0 (arti7cial proteins) are also starting to be created + a bitlike nanoscale Lego blocks 'ith pre-con7gured bumps and hollo's%

The :elf-Assem3ly +evolution*• =ven though natural proteins are biologically ragile, in time 'e may use synthetic

alternatives to sel-assemble products rom resilient materials (like carbon nanotubes)%• Juture nanomachines0 or assem3lers0 may use reactive molecules to bond atoms

together into virtually any stable pattern, adding a e' at a time to the surace o a'ork piece until a comple" structure is complete0 (9re"ler, :;1H)%

• 4ssemblers 'ould open a 'orld o ne' technologies0 % % %

.uture 5anofactories ? ? ? *• 8n theory, uture nanoactories0 may be ed basic eedstocks that they 'ould turn into

any product 'e could digitally de7ne%• >A@ !e are not talking about nanobots0W• Aut garage-sized0 nanoactories may assemble products rom ine"pensive,

microscopic parts, 'ith production times measured in minutes0 (9re"ler, :;1H)%• !ithin, robotic mechanisms 'ould assemble parts made by smaller mechanisms, and

so on do'n to the nanoscale%

A7M 7ossi3ilities (Dre1ler# /0%6)• 4K 'ill lead to (yet another) reduction in the need to purchase production machinery,

and in turn to invest capital in the same%• Aene7ts may accrue in areas including@

– Computing 9 communications – Construction materials – ,nergy – Transportation –

Agriculture• 4K developments should also help to reduce the volume o ra' material demand%

4ocal Digital Manufacturing• H9 printing, synthetic biology and nanotech molecular sel-assembly all provide a

means o turning digital models into physical things%• &he boundaries bet'een these three technologies areas are also already blurring%• 8n the last e' decades, the economy has been transormed by microprocessors0%• 8n the ne"t e' decades, the convergence o H9 printing, synthetic biology and

nanotech may allo' microfa3ricators0 to transorm the economy again, and evenmore radically % % %

Developments 9 ,1amples ? ? ?• 3ynAio could overcome the layers pro3lem0%• &he convergence o H9 printing and nanotechnology 'ill provide control o material

composition as 'ell as material placement%• 4 vat photopolymerization process called t'o-photon polymerization (/77) already has

a resolution do'n to 1;;nm (;%;;;1mm)%• 4t the Nniversity o 8llinois, artin 9% Aurke is developing the 7rst molecular 6D

printer0%

The .uture 7otential• A future world in which 4DM is common would 3e very diEerent from today?• 9o'nload-and-abricate 'ould have replaced manuacture-and-ship, 'hile ar more

products 'ould be customized or personalized%• ost production materials and production technology could be organic%• ontrol o 8K and personal production 'ould be e"tremely diQcult%• We would also have become reliant on AIs able to deal with the practicalities

of LDM …


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4ecture Floud omputing!hat is Cloud Computing*

• >83&@ a model or enabling ubi.uitous, convenient, on-demand net'ork access to ashared pool o con7gurable computing resources that can be rapidly provisioned andreleased 'ith minimal management efort or service provider interaction0%

• In other words# cloud computing is where software applications# data storageand processing power are accessed over the Internet?

• loud computing 'as a S


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• 7aa:@ customers create their o'n ne' applications, but only in a manner determinedby their cloud supplier%

• Iaa:@ customers run any applications they please on cloud hard'are o their o'nchoice% o'ever, the level o choiceIcontrol depends on the 8aa3 variant

:oftware as a :ervice (:aa:)• :oftware as a :ervice (3aa3) is a take it or leave it0 orm o cloud computing that

delivers of-the-shel0 applications rom the cloud% 8n other 'ords, customers run 'hat

is available%• etsuite, !eb=" !ebOQce,

!orkday, uddle and LotusLive%

:aa: Bene8ts 9 Draw3ac@s• 4ccessible rom any device%• ollaborative%• >o 7"ed costs and sometimes ree%• ontinually updated (incrementally)%• Less sophisticated (but task centric)%• 9ependent on a ast, reliable 8nternet connection%• >ot 'hat people are used to%• 4pplications run and data stored in the cloud%• Limited to vendor-determined applications%

7latforms 9 Infrastructure• Kaa3 2 8aa3 allo' cloud computing at the platorm or inrastructure level%• omputing platorms0 are sot'are environments used to create, run and deploy end-

user applications%• omputing inrastructure0 is the physical hard'are on 'hich platorms and

applications actually operate%

7latform as a :ervice• Kaa3 vendors provide online inrastructure together 'ith a sot'are environment and

development tools allo'ing customers to create 2 run their o'n 3aa3 applications%• Kaa3 may be used privately, or e"ample to create ne' in-house applications%• Kaa3 may also be used publicly to develop ne' online customer interaces%• Kaa3 may also be used by sot'are developers + or anybodyW + to rapidly and cheaply

bring ne' 3aa3 apps to market%

7aa: Bene8ts 9 Draw3ac@s• Kaa3 permits very rapid development via task automation (eg 'izards)%• 4s the same technology is used or both development and 7nal delivery, debugging

and implementation are also easier%• &he Ce"ibility verses po'er0 trade-of --development is aided as vendors control all o

the Lego bricks0% o'ever, being limited to the vendor*s programming languages andtools is also restrictive%

• &here is the risk o vendor lock-in%

2oogle App ,ngine• Moogle 4pp =ngine is a Kaa3 that allo's anybody to develop, run and maintain 'eb

applications on MoogleYs inrastructure%• 4pp =ngine places more technical constraints on developers than its competitors, i

'ith no apology as this enables speed and reliability%• ="cellent or large-scale public apps%• 4n 4pp Mallery0 can be used to sho'case and sell applications online%• 8t is attractive to host rom Moogle data centres/ 4 sae bet/

!indows AHure


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• !indo's 4zure is a Kaa3 that allo's applications to be run and data to be stored onicrosot data centre servers%

• 8t has three parts + the compute service0, the storage service0, and the abric0%• 3ot'are vendors may use 4zure to develop their o'n 3aa3 oferings%• =nterprises may use 4zure to build and run their o'n applications% =g =asyTet use

4zure%• icrosot claim that EP o Jortune ;; companies are already using 4zure % % %

.orce?com• 4 Kaa3 ofering rom 3alesorce%com%• ompanies can build their o'n applications in Jorce%com, or purchase them rom its

4pp="change marketplace%• 4ccording to an 89 study o ten 1; Jorce%com customers, on average applications 'ere

built < to times aster, cost savings 'ere


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Iaa:; y3rid osting• 4 potentially strong solution providing both dedication and Ce"ibility%• Jor e"ample, a company may run its applications on dedicated physical servers, but

store (most o its) data on virtual server instances%• Or a business may rent virtual service instances to cope 'ith occasional peak

processing demands or to service occasional very high levels o 'eb traQc%

Iaa:; Cloud osting• ustomer has no control over the server hard'are on 'hich their data is stored and

their applications arerun, and shares it 'ith unkno'n others%

• ay be seen as too risky % % %• o'ever, 'ithout doubt cloud hosting is the most technically and environmentally

eQcient orm o cloud computing%• &he cheapest 8aa3 option and becoming popular, eg in the orm o 4!3 % % %

AmaHon !e3 :ervices (A!:)• 4!3 ofers a range o services under the cloud hosting0 (ully virtualized) model%• 3ervices include =lastic ompute loud or (,C/) and 3imply 3torage 3ervice (:6)%• =: ofers many types o virtual server instance in multiple territories rom 1%H cents an

hour% 4!3 Jree &ier* provides E; hours a month or a year or ree % % %• ustomers set up 4mazon achine 8mages0 (48s) containing apps 2 data%• irtual servers instances are then created on the Cy rom these 48s%

AmaHon ,C/ Advantages • ,lastic Z because it allo's users to increase or decrease their re.uirements 'ithin

minutes%• .le1i3le Z because users can choose the speci7cation o each individual virtual server

instance%• Ine1pensive Z as no dedicated capital investment is re.uired%•

+elia3le Z as it makes use o 4mazon*s proven data centres and net'orkinrastructure%

The Competitive Cloud• Aeing dynamically scalable 'ith no 7"ed costs 'ill make cloud computing a competitive

necessity% 8ndeed, cost savings o ;P to 5;P have been claimed%

• 4s >icholas arr argued in his seminal book The %i" !witch (:;;G), there is anhistorical precedent 'ith the gro'th o national electricity grids a century ago%

• 8n 15;; there 'ere H,6;; public electricity plants in the N3 and c%;,;;; privatecompany plants% aving s'itched rom 'ater to steam to electric po'er, 7rms stillneeded convincing to e"ternalize their energy supply % % %

The ,lectricity Comparison• Ay 15;E,


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• &he 8celandic Movernment is planning or a cold rush0 based on the act that servers in8celand can be cooled naturally and hence have a lo'er carbon ootprint%

• 3aa3 users can adopt lo'-po'er, thin client hard'are, again saving energy%

4ecture Arti8cial Intelligence and +o3otsThe Thin@ing Machine ? ? ? *

• 8n 15;, 4lan &uring came to de7ne 48 via his imitation game0%

• &he &uring &est0 ma& no' have been passed, but human intelligence is really not anideal 48 benchmark%

• &he 4448 de7ne 48 an understanding o the mechanisms underlying thought and theirembodiment in machines0%

• &his de7nition is &uring neutral0, and accommodates orms o 48 that are both broad0and narro'0%

AI .rontiers!'()T* + M,DI-M*T,)M

• Increased mental automation@• 5e1t-generation computing interfaces (virtual assistants)%• Cognitive computing (Aig 9ata analytics)%• >ision recognition%• 4anguage translation%• Autonomous vehicles%

L(./*T,)M• 4rti7cial general intelligence (A2I)%


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Increased Mental Automation ? ? ?• 9uring !!88, olossus broke =nigma codes%• Ay 151, computers could play checkers%• 4nd by 155E, 8A*s 9eep Alue had beaten 'orld chess champion Marry Dasparov%• &oday, 'e rely on narro' 48s to automate tasks ranging rom trading on the stock

market, to auto piloting aircrat, detecting raud, and designing the latestmicroprocessors%

•

And it is ver& li0el& that “smart tech will ta0e on more and more mentalactivities # # #

The 5e1t Interface• irtual assistants0 (4s) already e"ist + including :iri rom 4pple, Cortana rom

icrosot, 2oogle 5ow, and .ace3oo@ M%• &he 4 space is clearly 'here many computing companies see the opportunity or

value add, esp% 'ith the all o the paid O3%• 4s could be the ne"t computing and hence consumer interace + transorming retail

and communications in the same manner as the 8nternet in the nineties and noughties %% %

!atson 9 Cognitive Computing• 8n Tanuary :;1< 8A created its !atson 2roup as a ne' S1bn business unit

dedicated to the development and commercialization o cloud-delivered cognitiveinnovations0%

• !atson is able to use the human learning process o observing, interpreting andanalyzing in order to achieve mastery over a sub?ect and develop e"pertise0%

• Kroducts currently include the !atson ,ngagement Advisor, !atson DiscoveryAdvisor 2 Chef !atson%

Cloud-Based Cognitive Computing• !atson Analytics is a cloud-based service intended to do all o the heavy liting

related to Aig 9ata0 + rom analysis to communication%• 3uch cloud-based cognitive computing may be used to correlate internal company data'ith e"ternal (and oten public) Aig 9ata sets, like those available rom 4mazon !eb3ervices%

• 4s '%) reported in arch :;1, 48 is rapidly becoming an important strategicaccelerator0 + and organizations need to 'ork out ho' to build it into the structure otheir business%

Data-Driven Medicine• !atson for ision +ecognition• 8n 156;, the 7eceptron 'as the 7rst vision-recognition arti7cial neural net'ork%• &oday 48 vision recognition is improving rapidly, and could e"pand the 8nternet o

&hings (IoT)%• 4pplications 'ill include A+ (eg 'ith Microsoft ololens) and even diminished

reality%• Cognitec and Jacebook 48 Fesearch (.AI+) are also advancing ace recognition%• 4pplications include customer pro7ling, tracking, and potentially payment veri7cation%

The .inal .rontier• !hile the 8nternet has helped bridge barriers o time and distance, 'e remain

separated by languages%


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• Aut, 'ithin a decade, 48 language translation is likely to bridge this last, great humandivide%

• Dey players currently include 2oogle, uawei and Microsoft (3kype translator)%• (nce a"ain1 cloud*based AI solutions that learn from their man& users

provide the most e2ective platform#

Autonomous >ehicles• 4lready adaptive cruise control and sel-parking are available%•

Ay :;:;, semi-autonomous cars are e"pected%• Ay :;:, high-autonomy vehicles (that still re.uire a human driver) are likely%• Ay :;H;, ully-autonomous vehicles may 'ell e"ist + re.uiring no human intervention%• The implications not least for mo3ility# lia3ility# improved crashing#

insurance and security are currently far from clear ? ? ?

Introducing Juantum Computing• urrent computers (and 48s) are based on digital electronics that store and process

inormation using transistors%• &hese unction as s'itches that can either be on0 or of0, and hence represent 10 or

;0%• 4ccording to oore*s La', the number o transistors on a chip doubles every 1G

months%• Aut 'e 'ill eventually reach physical limits%• Juantum computing may 3e the ne1t 3ig computing and AI development, 'ith

data stored and processed on a sub-atomic scale%

ow Juantum Computers !or@ (K)• 9ata is stored and processed in Lu3its0%• &hese are represented by the .uantum mechanical states o sub-atomic particles + eg

the spin direction o an electron, or the polarization orientation o a photon%• &hese can e"ist in more than one state + or superposition0 + at a time, hence

representing 10 and ;0 simultaneously%•

Ay attaching a probability to each state, a .ubit can theoretically store an in7nite rangeo values% 34,!1 T'I! I! 5,)4 !T)A./,$6

Juantum Computing Implications• Massively parallel processing%• &he hydrogen bomb o cyber 'arare0%• &he hard'are platorm or mass surveillance via vision recognition and communication

monitoring 4nd or the 7rst true 4M8s• D-!ave sold their 7rst, 1:G .ubit 9-!ave One .uantum computer in :;11, a 1: .ubit

9-9ave &'o in :;1H, and announced its 1,;;;; .ubit 9-!ave &hree in :;1%• icrosot, 8A and the N3 ilitary are also large players in .uantum computing%

+esistance or Consumer Demand*• Meneral otors have already talked about developing robots to do the other ; per

cent o ?obs0 % % %• umanoid robots have the potential to replace0 a great deal o human labour % % %• Aut they could also help to care or an ageing population, assist 'ith local

manuacturing and product repair, and ree0 humans rom undertaking drudgerous ordangerous occupations%

Current umanoid +o3ots ? ? ?• onda*s 438O• 4ldebaran*s >4O• 4ldebaran*s and 3otAank*s Kepper• 4ldebaran*s Fomeo• >434*s alkyrie• Aoston 9ynamic*s (Moogle*s) 4tlas

OP. *O#/ 1DP /O,OT*• 8noov


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• Koppy%

A .uture +o3ot ,conomy ? ? ? *• Ay :;H;, humanoid robots may be as smart as humans, and as cheap as cars%• Arain suggests such robots 'ould evaporate0 cheap labour in many service sectors%• Ret &amny argues that robots 'ill be the biggest ?ob creators in history0%

Fotman reports that ne' technology is no' both destroying and creating ?obs, but overalldestroying more than it creates

=na3le to Complete ? ? ? *• robotsI48s as smart as humans, and 'hich may be copied human emulations + or

ems0%• =ms 'ould be more productive than (most) humans, and could be easily copied (so

speeding training0)%• uman-to-em selection 'ould be highly une.ual@ most ems being digital copies o the

most suitable0 humans 'ith an ems clan0%• ,m minds could operate at diEerent speeds# depending on the availa3le

hardware?

4ecture &+esources from :paceThe Inevita3le 4imits ? ? ?• 4s the 3econd La' o &hermodynamics inorms us, closed systems cannot last orever%• ighlighting this act, in 15E: a signature 8& study called The Limits to roth ocused

attention on the 7nite resources and carrying capacity0 o Klanet =arth%• o'ever, as =ric D% 9re"ler later noted, 'hile The Limits to roth 'as truly

inspirational0, its environmental computer model 'as Ca'ed because it 'as con7ned toour single 7rst planet % % %


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Beyond :ustaina3ility• 8n 15GE the N> Arundtland ommission0 de7ned sustaina3le development0 as

development that meets the needs o current generations 'ithout compromising theability o uture generations to meet their o'n needs0%

• 3uch living or today 'ithout compromising tomorro'0 is a lovely idea% Aut, 'ithin aclosed system it is also thermodynamically impossible%

• In addition to consumin" less 1 our future survival therefore has to depend on

7ndin" more resources # # #

Business Beyond the ,arth• =arth is the cradle o the mind, but one cannot live in the cradle orever0 (&siolkovsky)%• Fesources rom space may sound like 3ci-Ji W• Aut the rontier o space is opening up + 'ith more and more companies getting

involved%• &here are incredible technological hurdles to overcome + and it 'ill re.uire a great

many long-term investments%• Aut the real challenge is a change in narrative%• The !olloing ma$ (e 3e$ !uture industries ' ' '

:pace-Based :olar 7ower (:B:7)• 3olar po'er is likely to be an important uture orm o alternative (not rene'ableW)

energy%• Aut solar po'er is limited by the 'eather, the seasons, geographic position + and night

timeW• 4 potential solution is to put solar po'er satellites (3K3) in geostationary orbit 'here

the available sunlight is c%1; times greater%• &he paybacks rom the resources 'e have to invest to generate solar po'er may be

most efectively utilized in space % % %

Toward ,nergy from :pace• %&; >434 2 N3 9epartment o =nergy + concept design or :7: +eference:ystem0@ proposed a H;; M! net'ork o 6; satellites or SH trillion% 4nd it 'ould havebeen operational by no' % % %

• %&; >434 Jresh Looks0 study % % %• 4ate noughties; many commercial start-ups pre the 7nancial crash % % %• /00$-/0%%; 4 detailed report rom the 8nternational 4cademy o 4stronautics (844)

identi7ed three possible architectures /

:B:7; Challenges 9


20/27

• 8n Tanuary :;16, Klanetary Fesources and H9 3ystems even sho'cased a direct metalH9 print made rom asteroid deposits(W)%

• One day, solar po'er satellites may be sel-assembling, intelligent entities % % %

In :earch of :pace-Based +aw Materials• Aoth the oon and the asteroids are thought to be rich in a 'ide range o resources

that include 'ater, hydrocarbons, as 'ell as metals such as iron, nickel, platinum, silverand gold%

•

4steroids are primordial space debris, 'ith about 1,;; near-=arth asteroids (5,As)potential mining candidates%• 4bout 1; - :;; >=4s are easier to access than the oon due to the relatively lo'

velocity change (delta-v) needed to visit them%• And minin" .,As could chan"e the economics of space # # #

Asteroid Mining; The Mar@et 7otential• &he initial market is likely to be e"traterrestrial%• &his could include supplying uel, o"ygen and 'ater or humans, and materials or

space inrastructure (such as solar po'er satellites)%• 3pace tourism and the abrication o zero-g medicines could also be supported%• 3ome people may also pay greatly or tiny .uantities o asteroid materials (eg in

?e'elry)%• 8n time, precious metals like platinum may be brought back to the =arth%

!ome .,As harbour platinum worth billions

Asteroid Mining; 4ogistics• Found trips to asteroids 'ill take many years%• ining could take place in-situ, or alternatively 'e may return smaller asteroids to lunar

orbit%• >434*s Asteroid +edirect Mission0 plans to return a multi-ton >=4 bolder to lunar

orbit in the :;:;s, 'here astronauts in their ne' 434%• 938 has also invented a space-based H9 printer it calls the Micro2ravity .oundry%

Mining the Moon• 3ince the discovery o 'ater on the oon in :;;5, interest in lunar mining has been

gro'ing%• oon ="press no' terms the oon our eighth continent0%• Jor many years, uture lunar mining has been linked to the potential e"ploitation o the

gas helium-H as a uture nuclear usion uel%• elium-H is e"ceedingly rare on the =arth%• Aut it is emitted by the 3un, and has been absorbed in the lunar soil or billions o

years%• 1;;-1; tonnes may po'er the =arth or a year%

2etting There ? ? ?• >434*s 4unar CATA4N:T program is spurring commercial cargo transportation

capabilities to the surace o the oon0%• Lunar 4&4LR3& builds on >434*s O&3 and HKO programs that have helped 3pace[,

Orbital 4D4 and Aoeing develop spacecrat%


21/27

• Moogle is unding the 2oogle 4unar O7+IP,%• &here is talk o Fussian and Tapanese plans%• 4nd the Chinese 4unar ,1ploration 7rogram (hang*e Kro?ect) is making e"tremely

good progress % % %

Moon 7ower• &he ne"t oon Face (and helium-H mining) could cement hina as the 'orld*s

dominant superpo'er and energy supplier%•

4nd only hina has the political structure to commit to such a long-term endeavour%• Kotentially, uture orms o !K& could be used to beam energy to the =arth rom

nuclear reactors built on the oon + or rom vast lunar solar arrays constructed romlunar materials%

• The ,i"ht Continent could be the business frontier of the second half of thiscentur& # # #

A 4egal Mine8eld ? ? ? *• !ho has the right to resources rom space• &he N>


22/27

4ecture $Crossing the .ourth Discontinuity ? ? ?

• 4ccording to Aruce azlish (155H), the ourth discontinuity is crossed (ie a binary dividebet'een human beings and machines ceases to e"ist) 'hen@

– 8t is no longer reasonable to think o human beings 'ithout machines, and – &he same paradigms e"plain and govern the 'orking o human beings and many

arti7cial0 mechanisms%

:ynergy and Interdependence ? ? ?• 4lready 'e cannot al'ays separate humanity0 and technology0 on the basis o@

– biological v% non-biological – natural0 v% arti7cial0, or even – designed and manuactured v% evolved – In the coming decades# organiHations are li@ely to start playing a

greater and greater role in proactive human evolution?• !hat their stakeholders deem acceptable 'ill thereore become a ma?or business

issue % % %

2enetic Medicine• Jor thousands o years medicine 'as based on physical repair techni.ues and the

ingestion or in?ection o standardized, generic chemicals%• &he uman Menome Kro?ect began 'ork in 155; and completed its task in :;;H%• 3ince that time, the age o post-genomic medicine0 has started to da'n%• &his 'ill involve increased genetic testing and the development o pharmacogenomics%• Longer-term, 'e 'ill see generic therapies and the pursuit o genomic upgrading % % %

2enetic Testing• 4lready over :,;;; speci7c genetic tests can aid the diagnosis o over 1,;;; diseases%• 8ncreasingly, 48 is going to be applied to map more and more comple" genetic

relationships%•

48, nanotech and genomic developments are also likely to deliver mobile diagnosis%• Jor e"ample, 5ano3iosym have developed 2ene-+ADA+ -- one o several contenders

or the Jualcom Tricorder O7+IP,%• /6andMe and others are pioneering clic@-9-spit testing + 'hich may link to uture

4 48s%

+apid 2ene :eLuencing• !hile Moore's 4aw charts the increasing speed and alling cost o computing po'er,

so the Carlson Curve does the same or human genome se.uencing%• &oday, Illumina i:eL O hard'are can se.uence ; genomes a day at S1,;;; a

genome, 'ith a E: hour cycle time%• 8n the :;:;s, 'e may see genome se.uencing or less than a dollar, or even a e'

cents%• &his could open up all kinds o medical and other possibilities + including lick-and-

pay0W

The 7harmacogenomic +evolution• &oday, 'e kno' that diferent drugs 'ork diferently or diferent patients, but 'e

generally do not kno' 'hy%• 7harmacogenomics matches drugs to patients based on their part- or 'hole genetic

pro7le%• &his should improve patient outcomes 'hile saving healthcare costs%• 4lready Assure1 is ofering its 2ene:ight pharmacogenomic tests%• &he value o pharmaceutical back catalogue0 may skyrocket % % %

.uture 2enetic Therapies• !hile decades a'ay, genetic therapies or diseases ranging rom cancer to heart

disease and 4lzheimers are being actively researched%


23/27

• &hese aim to correct0 gene deects0 by (eg) inserting a healthy gene, mostcommonly using vectors (M viruses), or arti7cial liposomes or polymers that stick totarget cell suraces%

• &ests on [-389 and cystic 7brosis patients have resulted in successes and ailures,'hile in other patients, vision has been improved and (in animals) colour blindnesscured%

2enomic =pgrading ? ? ? *•

4s gene therapy develops, 'hat constitutes a disability0 'ill need to be .uestioned % % %• 4lready a synthetic virus called +epo1ygen (that increases red blood cell production)

can be in?ected to increase the perormance o manual 'orkers + or soldiers andathletes % % %

• Ought people to be allo'ed to have germline (as opposed to somatic) genetic therapiesthat 'ill pass on traits to uture generations % % %

• 4nd ought animal genes ever to be introduced transgentically into humans % % % W

Designer Ba3ies ? ? ?• 4lready about 1% P in babies born in the ND 2 N3 are conceived in a laboratory via 8J%• linics like The .ertility Institutes in the N3 screen or


24/27

• 4s technologies converge, 'e may also start to bioprint all kinds o materials that 'illsel-assemble and die on digital cue ater printout%

Business Beyond the th Discontinuity• 4s the technology becomes available to allo' businesses to genetically control and to

other'ise synthetically recreate our bodies and other organic materials, what will bethe implications?

• Is this the true 4DM revolution*•

!ill customers 'ant this technology 4nd 'ho + i anybody + should regulate it 4ndho'• !hat 'ill be the competitive, international + and religious + implications• 4re 'e heading to'ard umanity /?0 % % %

4ecture Deterministic Drivers of umanity /?0*

• loud and other computing developments, together 'ith technology as a social actor*(Delly*s independent technium)%

• Kost-genomic medicine and bioprinting%• 3ynthetic biology%• >anotechnology%• &he transhuman agenda%• The 7rst four of these involve new wa&s of connectin"1 alterin" and

3re6pro"rammin" the ph&sical world and ourselves# The 7fth is advocatin"that we actuall& should # # #

umanity /?0; The Cloud 9 the Technium• 8s umanity :%; actually ?ust the cloud• 8n other 'ords, is the cloud an increasingly intelligent cyborg &he captured

connections and e"periences o civilization• 4re 'e starting to think diferently in and I or because o our connection to the cloud

8n other 'ords, do the cloud I technium no' determine our liestyles and actions• 8n particular, 'hat are the implications o the cloud as a panoptic apparatus (aka

Teremy Aentham, late 1Gth century)%

5ano-Bio-Info-Cogno (5BIC)• Aiotechnology (inc synthetic biology), nanotechnology, 8&, cognitive science (48) and

neurotechnology are all rapidly converging%• &ogether they could signi7cantly e"pand our average lie span and improve the .uality

o our lives% Ret, 'ith each o these technologies, a se.uence o small, individuallysensible advances leads to an accumulation o great po'er and, concomitantly, greatdanger0 (Toy in Orca, :;1;)%

• 'ow will business @ + societ& @ respond?

umanity /?0*

• &he history o our species is a stream o discoveries % % % that have allo'ed us toprogress and direct, to some e"tent, the course o our evolution0 (han, :;1;)

• Aut today, is individual enhancement using >A8 technologies ethically acceptable Jore"ample, removing I altering bad* genes

• 4nd i not, 'here is the line o acceptability• 8s the use o genetics, nanotech, bioprinting and cybernetics inevitable =ven essential• Can non*enhanced humanit& survive # # #?

Cy3ernetic ,nhancement• 4rti7cial additions to the human body + rom teeth to heart valves + are not uncommon%• 4ll that is changing is the sophistication o the arti7cial body parts 'e do and may use

to repair and upgrade0 ourselves%• 4ny creature 'ith both natural and arti7cial body parts is technically kno'n as a

cy3org%• ybernetic enhancement may thereore change our very nature%• %ut an increasin" number of people will live at least some of their lives as a

c&bor" # # #


25/27

.rom Dum3 to :mart 7rosthetics ? ? ?• 9umb prosthetics + ie those 'ithout an inormation processing capability + 'ill be

improved 'ith H9 printing technologies%• 9umb prosthesis are also likely to become organic + either bioprinted, or perhaps gro'n

in humanized0 animals%• :;;,;;;B people no' have a cochlear implant%• 8n time, our ability to arti7cially connect to and stimulate the optic nerve 'ill only

improve % % %

5eural Interfaces ? ? ?• 3mart prosthetics + like arti7cial limbs + are rapidly advancing, and may already be

controlled using myoelectrics (eg the Open Aionics or &ouch Aionics hands) and TM+%• Aattelle have developed an implantable chip called 5euro3ridge that can link the

brain to a limb, bypassing a damaged spinal chord• &he Nniversity o !ashington and others are developing brain-computer interaces

(BCIs) + eg allo'ing sub?ects 'earing ==M headsets to control the limbs o others overthe 8nternet%

Direct Brain Connections ? ? ?• &he Brain2ate Consortium has been developing an implantable


26/27

• 4 U1%15 billion =N undertaking called the uman Brain 7roect is seeking to build acomputer simulation o the hard'are o the human brain%

• &hey are intending to model the chemical and electrical unction o each neuron inorder to deliver radical advancements in neuroscience, computing (48) and medicine%

• 4lready a e' neuroscientists are speculating about the options or human minds tolive inside a machine0

Managing an ,nhanced !or@force•

Dunster (:;1;) ponders 'hat it 'ill be like 'hen there are employees driven by la'sother than those governing organic lie0%• o' 'ill norms0 cope 'hen others in the 'orkorce have enhanced 8V, emotions,

strength or immune systems• 4nd ho', by say :;H;, 'ill leaders manage ,nhanced :ingular Individuals0 (=38s)• 8s leadership0 an organic .uality that only applies 'hen ollo'ers0 have certain

biological traits % % %

A :tep too .ar ? ? ? *• 4s Orca noted, 'e 'ill increasingly have the technological opportunity to take control o

our bodies and liespans%• umanity has al'ays evolved and advanced0 by using increasingly sophisticated

tools%• Aut are things no' progressing0 too ast, 'ith ne' technological developments

accelerating beyond a reasonable level o cultural comort• Or should 'e see the 'ide technological progress0 that 'e have studied in this module

as a positive and natural0 evolutionary step

The Transhumanist 7hilosophy• Transhumanism is the view that we should ta@e a proactive role in upgrading

the human species?• &he term comes rom Rulian u1ley in 15:E, 'ho 'rote o man remaining man, but

transcending himsel0%• 8n 155; Ma1 More de7ned transhumanism as a class o philosophies o lie that seekthe continuation and acceleration o the evolution o intelligent lie beyond its currentlyhuman orm and human limitations by means o science and technology0%

A +ising De3ate ? ? ?• 4 &ranshumanist 9eclaration0 is maintained by umanityB ( humanityplus?org )%• 3ome people also actively pursue e"treme0 transhumanist practices such as cryonics%• 'owever1 transhumanism toda& is probabl& where the "reen movement was

several decades a"o#• &he .uestion + especially or organizations + is the e"tent to 'hich it may (like the

green movement) merge 'ith mainstream thought and action in the decades ahead%

A Battle of Ideologies ? ? ?• 9oes advocating the ma"imum ethical e"ploitation o ne' technologies0 imply that 'e

are meddling 'ith nature0 and playing Mod0• ost technologies on the horizon are ar more ethically charged than those o the

8normation 4ge%• &ranshumanism also has religious connotations, 'ith both religion and transhumanity

being matters o conviction and belie% (Aut can I may they compliment)%• !here, can and should the boundaries be dra'n 4nd ho' I 'hat ought 'e to

regulate

,volving into :pace ? ? ? *• Kotentially, at least one branch o our species may re.uire transhuman upgrading in

pursuit o obtaining resources rom space%• Homo *apiens are not 'ell-suited to the non-matter-hugging vacuum o space%• Tust as our ancestors took on diferent orms as they let the oceans, so 'e may

physically evolve ourselves to ?ourney into space%


27/27

• &his could even involve an evolution into a modular species, 'ith uture space marinersadopting diferent bodies as re.uired % % %

.rightening*

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