Tennessee Higher Education Commission TN Higher Education Planning & Making Opportunity Affordable August 10, 2009

Tennessee Higher Education Commission

TN Higher Education Planning &TN Higher Education Planning &Making Opportunity AffordableMaking Opportunity Affordable

August 10, 2009August 10, 2009

Educational Attainment and Rank Among States Tennessee, 2006 (Percent)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

NCHEMS Data

7.8

23.4

6.5

85.0

82.1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Age 25-64 with Graduate/ Prof. Degree

Age 25-64 with Bachelor's or Higher

Age 25-64 with Associate Degree

Age 25-64 with HS Diploma

Age 18-24 with HS Diploma 28th

38th

48th

42nd

40th

Student Pipeline, 2006

Sources: (1) Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity; Chance for College by Age 19. (2) NCES, IPEDS 2006 Retention Rate File and 2006 Graduation Rate File. (3) U.S.

Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey.

86.0

60.0

42.0

30.0

69.0

42.0

28.0

20.0

67.0

43.0

29.0

19.0

42.9

29.323.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

Graduate fromHigh School

Directly EnterCollege

Enroll inSecond Year

GraduateWithin 150% ofProgram Time

Are Age 25-44with a Bachelor's

Degree

Best Performing StateUnited StatesTennessee

Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…


Higher Education RevenuesHigher Education Revenues

Total Revenue per FTE - UniversitiesInflation Adjusted

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Tuition Incr

Tuition

ARRA

State


Federal ARRA OverviewAmerican Recovery & Reinvestment Act

$4.4B Tennessee Allocation

$947M Fiscal Stabilization Fund

$3.45B Other Programs

$172M for General Purpose - not education specific, but may include operating funds and renovation &

repair of facilities

$775M for Education - primarily for K-12 & higher education operating funds

The Goal: TennesseeReaching International

Competitiveness by 2025

55% of Population Age 25-64 with

College Degrees

Educational Attainment in Tennessee

35.8

40.4

55.0

29.8

0

20

40

60

Current % of AdultsAge 25-64 with

College Degrees, 2005

Projected % in 2025with Current AnnualDegree Production

Projected % in 2025with Current Annual

Degree Production andNet Migration

% Needed to ReachBest-Performing

Countries by 2025

Current, in 2025 with current degree production, and best-performing countries in 2025

Source: NCHEMS

How Can Tennessee Reach International Competitiveness?

Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the

Student Pipeline Measures

1,376,532

1,068,576

117,175

45,667

30,704

714,780

157,205

3,045

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000

Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production

Additional Degrees from Population Growth

Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents

Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student

Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above

Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)

Source: NCHEMS; 2005 ACS, PUMS

Pipeline is cumulative


Degree Production Challenge


Degree Production Challenge


Tennessee Policy Audit - NCHEMS

• A review of policies and practices affecting higher education access, success, and productivity.

• Data analysis

• Campus visits

• Interviews with leaders from business, legislators and Governor’s staff.


Policy Audit Findings

• P-16/College Readiness– College Placement

– TBR DSP redesign

• Adult Education

• Finance Policy– Funding Formula

– Performance Funding

• Financial Aid & Tuition Policy


Policy Audit Utility

• What’s already in place that TN can build on?

• How do we leverage resources most efficiently?

• Identified gaps between policies as written and as implemented.

• Highlight unintended consequences of certain policies.


Next Steps

• 2010-2015 master plan

• Input from Legislative leaders, systems, institutions and business

• Align Performance Funding and finance policy with master plan

• www.tennessee.gov/moa


TN Higher Education Planning &TN Higher Education Planning &Making Opportunity AffordableMaking Opportunity Affordable

August 10, 2009August 10, 2009


Annual Percent Change in State Appropriations

8.0%10.1%

2.6% 2.0%

-1.4%

6.4%

1.9%3.1% 2.5% 2.6%

-1.5%

3.1% 3.7%

7.5%6.4%

-7.6%

-15.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10


State Appropriations & ARRA

Higher education operating support levelsData excludes lottery program and certain administrative and other units.

2005-06 $1,110.9M (State Funding MOE requirement)2007-08 $1,276.0M (Funding Target)2008-09 (post reversion) $1,193.6M2009-10 (Proposed) $1,047.6M

Allocation of New FundsFunding Current or State Funds Federal Funds TotalTarget Proposed for MOE for Stabilization Funds

2008-09 $1,276.0M $1,193.6M $0 $82.4M $82.4M2009-10 $1,276.0M $1,047.6M $63.3M $165.1M $228.4M2010-11 $1,276.0M $1,047.6M $63.3M $165.1M $228.4MTotals $126.6M $412.6M $539.2M

Additional Degrees Needed to Reach International Competitiveness (55%) by 2025

(367

,784

)

504,

547

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Illin

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Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Age Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will

Leave Gaps in More than 30 States

2,7888,89810,875

23,54224,74125,32628,65934,54737,70639,43644,75747,42053,57453,995

62,33265,853

74,752110,495112,681114,375115,120

122,061132,748

159,765186,640

204,814287,565

307,956320,720

560,688

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

IndianaMissouri

ConnecticutMarylandWyomingGeorgia

HawaiiMontana

IdahoMaine

WisconsinNew Mexico

MichiganOregon

OklahomaAlaska

West VirginiaAlabama

South CarolinaOhio

MississippiArizona

North CarolinaKentuckyArkansasLouisiana

NevadaTennesseeNew Jersey

CaliforniaFloridaTexas 1,333,645

893,504

In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close the gap with even best

performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back into the education system and on track to

attaining college degrees.

Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) Tennessee

3,062,326 Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%)

933,034 Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees

2,129,292 Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025)

1,127,850 Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production

Documents

Tennessee Higher Education Commission TN Higher Education Planning & Making Opportunity Affordable August 10, 2009