TERRORISM

And how to tackle it

TERRORISM: THE USUAL CONFUSIONS

• ‘A new threat…’• - and aimed at the West• ‘One man’s terrorist is another man’s

freedom fighter’• ‘Terrorist is as terrorist does’• ‘War on terror’

- terror is a single enemy; defeatable with military power; ‘no rules apply’

SEEKING A MORE RELIABLE APPROACH

• Definitions

• Available facts: scale, distribution, trends

• A model for the range of remedies (also broadly fits other human, intentional threats)

DEFINITIONS: 3 KEY CONCEPTUAL POINTS

• Terrorists act for a political motive (not criminal or greed) – Objections?

• Terrorists use violence against civilians (not as an extreme tactic in fighting other fighters) – Objections?

• Terrorists are the weak fighting the strong, non-state actors against the state (ie not top-down violence or among equals)– Objections?

DEFINING TERRORIST METHODS

• Violent, inhumane

• Indiscriminate (not only civilians, but…)

• Reliant on public impression: declaring responsibility, use of own and others’ media

• (What other kinds of movements does this apply to?)

IMPORTANCE OF MOTIVES

• Key distinction between attainable and unattainable (millenaristic) aims

• Key distinction between social/anarchistic, nationalistic, and religion-related aims – all extremist

• WHAT KINDS OF TERRORISTS HAVE BEST CHANCE OF ‘COMING OUT OF TERRORISM?’

FACTS: TOTAL SCALE OF THE PROBLEM

• According to WHO all deaths by ‘violence’ account for 1% of all deaths in the world (cf traffic accidents 2.2%, selfharm 1.4%). These ratios will not change much by 2030.

• Within ‘violence’, 22,685 terrorism deaths in 2007 (maximum estimate) compare with 17,700 battle deaths in the top 14 conflicts

• - But are much smaller than total conflict related deaths and deaths by crime

• Compare also 2.1 million deaths from HIV/Aids

MORE FACTS

• Statistical curve• Geographical distribution

- Iraq

- Other hotspots

- in the West• Types of attack• Future??

WHY SHOULD WE CARE SO MUCH (EVEN IF T-FREE)?

• Undermining both state authority and human rights, humane values (also for the terrorists themselves)

• Effective asymmetric threat (in strategic, political and econ/fin terms)

• Par excellence transnational (direct and indirect targets, accomplices, bolt-holes)

• Interconnected with conflict and other important dimensions of threat

• Terrorism and WMD

SO WHAT CAN BE DONE?

• Not to ‘stop’ terrorism - it can be cut back/phased out here or there, but never eliminated from the human mind or the toolbox of violence

• But to reduce and ‘contain’ it, discourage as many as possible from doing + supporting it, and avoid/ minimize/quickly repair the damage

• Choice of measures based not just on effectiveness, but ‘doing least harm’ to law, society, human rights, economy etc

SIX BASIC APPROACHES

• Physically stop them (catch, kill)• Outlaw and criminalize them• ‘Starve’ them by cutting off money, equipment

etc• Make them change their minds and methods• Persuade others not to support them• ‘Harden’ ourselves as a target, improve

resilience

(A TALK-THROUGH EXERCISE)FOR EACH METHOD:

• When and how could it be done?

• With what measures and tools?

• Who has to help - national or international, official or unofficial?

• What institutions??

• TAKING EACH IN TURN -

PHYSICAL COERCION

METHODS OF LAW AND JUSTICE

CUTTING OFF SUPPLIES

CHANGE THEIR MINDS

CHANGE THEIR SUPPORTERS’ MINDS

‘HARDEN’ THE TARGETS

SO WHICH ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT TOOLS AND

INSTITUTIONS?