Texas State University

April 8, 2013Round Rock, TX

Applied Demography: Some Texas Examples

2

Demography – the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above.

~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991

3

Population Estimating Equation

P1 = P0 + B – D + I – O

where: P0 = the population at some earlier dateB = birthsD = deathsI = in-migrationO = out-migration

4

The Population Research Institute,

2.1 Kids: Stable Population

http://youtu.be/zBS6f-JVvTY

The Office of the State Demographer disseminates demographic and related socioeconomic data to the State of Texas and the general public. The State Demographer’s Office monitors demographic and socioeconomic changes in the State in order to better inform the executive and legislative branches of Texas government. Special emphasis is placed on data that may be useful to policy makers in dealing with issues regarding the demand for state services.

Mission

• Data Portal, Publications, and Reports http://txsdc.utsa.edu/

• Population Estimates and Projections Program http://txsdc.utsa.edu/Data/TPEPP/Estimates/Index.aspx

• Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings• Public Presentations http://osd.state.tx.us

• Data Requests• Custom Research Projects• Annual Conference for Data Users and Applied Demography

Conference

Meeting the Mission

7

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

15.7% of numerical change in U.S.

Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

Growing States, 2000-2010

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

His-panic or Latino32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other6%

Hispanic or Latino

38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.

10

Percent Change

-21% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 81.8%

Number of People

82 - 9,999

10,000 - 24,999

25,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 4,092,459

Total Population by County, 2010

Total Population Population % Change, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

11

Percent Change

-51.4% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 62.1%

Less than 100 population

Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Non-Hispanic White Hispanic

Percent Change

-29.4% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 99.9%

100% - 165.7%

Less than 100 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

12

Percent Change

-49% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 74.9%

75% - 3000%

Less than 100 population

Percent Change in Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian

Percent Change

-27.9% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 697%

less than 100 population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.

13

Percent of Texas Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity, 2010

0 to 45 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 plus

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

NH White Hispanic

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Summary File 1 Data.

14

Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Median age

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.

15

Texas Population Pyramid, 2010

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.

Median age

16

Population Projections, 2010

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

50000000

55000000

60000000

Projected Population in Texas, 2010 to 2050

No Migra-tion1/2 2000 to 20102000 to 2010

1,000,000

3,500,000

6,000,000

8,500,000

11,000,000

13,500,000

16,000,000

18,500,000

21,000,000

23,500,000

Projected Population for Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2050,

0.5 Migration Scenario

Anglo

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: Texas State Data Center Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2010 Projections

17

Projecting the educational attainment of the Texas labor force

18

Background

• Texas educational attainment among those aged 18 to 64 is ranked low among the 51 states.– Ranks 51st in high school graduation, with 81.3%

graduation from high school.– Ranks 37th in college graduation, with 23.6%

graduating from college.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2006-2010 American Community Survey PUMS data

19

BackgroundIndividuals with some higher education are more likely to be employed; trend suggests this gap may be widening.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201050.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

f(x) = − 0.000747696969696972 x + 0.570273333333333R² = 0.0223370054209473

f(x) = − 0.00247781818181818 x + 0.748636R² = 0.441782386010636

f(x) = 0.00167006060606061 x + 0.804954666666667R² = 0.385142289993757

Percentage Employed By Educational Attainment, ACS 1-year PUMS

Less than High SchoolLinear (Less than High School)High School Graduates or HigherLinear (High School Graduates or Higher)Bachelor or Higher

Perc

ent

20

BackgroundEducational attainment has improved in the last 10 years.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64 ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010

< HiHi-EqSome ColAs DegreeBach DegreeMaster DegreeProf DegreeDoc DegreePe

rcen

t

21

Background

< Hi Hi-Eq Some Col As Degree Bach Degree

Master Degree

Prof Degree Doc Degree0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64 ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010

Male Female

Educational attainment improvements seen among most subgroups, but demographic differences are still pronounced.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data

22

Background

< Hi Hi-Eq Some Col As Degree Bach Degree

Master Degree

Prof Degree

Doc Degree0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64 ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010

White

Black

US-born Hispanics

Foreign-born Hispanics

Other

Educational attainment improvements seen among most subgroups, but demographic differences are still pronounced.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data

23

Background

< Hi Hi-Eq Some Col As Degree Bach Degree

Master Degree

Prof Degree Doc Degree0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Educational Attainment Level for Persons Age 18 -64 ACS PUMS 5-year, 2006-2010

18-24 25-34 35-64

Educational attainment improvements seen among most subgroups, but demographic differences are still pronounced.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data

24

Data & Methods

• Data sources:– American Community Survey PUMS data 2001 to 2010– Texas State Data Center population projections data– Texas Workforce Commission occupation-education projection

data• Analysis plan

– Multinomial regression model used to predict the rates of each educational attainment category for each demographic sub-group, based on historical trend and demographic characteristics

– The predicted sub-group specific rates are applied to the population projections

25

Findings

• Compare projected educational attainment of the labor force to required labor force for projected job needs

• Identify gaps between demand (by job type) for education and the supply (by the labor force)

• Specific educational attainment levels and population sub-groups can then be targeted to meet these needs– Tailored career paths in high schools, colleges, and vocational

schools– Inform immigration goals for specific skill visas– Evaluate funding needed to meet goals of projected education

levels needed in the labor force

26

Demographics & Destiny

27

http://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo

Hans Rosling’s The Joy of Stats BBC Four

28

Contact

Dr. Johnelle SparksGraduate Advisor of RecordOffice: (210) 458-3163E-mail: Johnelle.Sparks@utsa.eduWebsite: http://copp.utsa.edu/demography/home

UTSA Ph.D. in Applied Demography

29

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530E-mail: State.Demographer@osd.state.tx.usWebsite: http://osd.state.tx.us

Office of the State Demographer