Thayer To Isolate Philippines, China Woos ASEAN

7/27/2019 Thayer To Isolate Philippines, China Woos ASEAN

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To Isolate Philippines, China Woos ASEAN

By Carl Thayer

October 1, 2013

Maritime security in the South China Sea is being shaped by two overlapping and potentially crosscutting

developments. The first development is the emergence of new tensions between the Philippines and China over

Scarborough Shoal dating from late August. The second development is the initiation of official consultations

on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) between China and the Association of Southeast Asian

Nations (ASEAN) in mid-September.

New Tensions

Ever since the eruption of tensions between China and the Philippines over Scarborough

Shoal in April 2012 Beijing has pursued wedge politics in an attempt to isolate Manila

from other ASEAN states. For example, Chinas new Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointedly

omitted the Philippines from the itinerary of his two trips to the region this year.

In August China and the Philippines became involved in a diplomatic altercation overPresident Aquinos attendance at the Tenth China-ASEAN- Expo in Nanning (3-6

September). The Philippines had been designated the country of honor and official host for

this event. It was past practice for the host country to be represented by its head of

government. On 28 August, immediately after President Aquino indicated his intention to

attend the Expo China requested that he visit at a more conducive time. According to

Philippine sources, China demanded the Philippines withdraw its arbitration case as a

condition for Aquinos visit. This was unacceptable and President Aquino declined to attend.

In the midst of these ructions, new tensions in China-Philippine relations erupted when

Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin on September 3 released three aerial photographs of

Scarborough Shoal taken on August 31. These photographs were taken at low tide and

showed what the Philippines claimed were thirty concrete blocks, a concrete platform, two
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vertical posts and a white buoy lying in Scarborough Shoal. Three Chinese Coast Guard ships

were also photographed on station in the area.

Gazmin speculated that the concrete blocks could be a prelude to construction and were a

violation of the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).

Gazmin also stated he was unsure when the blocks were delivered. Philippine sourcesspeculated that the blocks could be used to tether Chinese fishing vessels. An anonymous

Philippine officialwas quotedas stating, the concrete pillars and blocks appeared to have

been dropped from an aircraft.

A day after Gazmins testimony, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alberto del Rosario argued that

China had plans to occupy disputed reefs in the South China Sea before the formal

conclusion of a COC, and stated that Chinese activity places the region in jeopardy in terms

of peace and stability. Del Rosario concluded that we intend to file a diplomatic protest

with China.

On September 4, the Philippines Department of National Defenseannounced thatnew aerialphotographs taken two days earlier revealed a total of 75 concrete blocks in a two-hectare

area of Scarborough Shoal. The blocks were estimated at just over half a meter in length,

width and height.

Official Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Leiresponded toPhilippineaccusations by claiming they were not in accordance with the facts and th at Scarborough

Shoal was Chinas inherent territory.

On September 10, Philippines Navy Vice Admiral Jose Luis Alano raised the rhetorical

stakes by noting that government discussions were underway about how to respond to China,

including whether or not to remove the blocks. Speaking at a Foreign Ministry press

conference the following day, Hong Leirestated Chinasundisputed sovereignty over

Huangyan Islands [Scarborough Shoal] and the neighboring sea.

China released its own photos reportedly taken some time during the second week of

September clearly showing rocks and coral jutting from the sea at low tide. Chinese sources

claimed this was the same area of Scarborough Shoal depicted in photographs taken by the

Philippines Air Force. As a direct result of this controversy the Philippines recalled its

ambassador to China for consultations.

China-ASEAN Consultations

Shortly after the formal installation of Xi Jinping as president and Wang Yi as the new

foreign minister back in March, China signaled a subtle change in its relations with Southeast

Asia. The following month, at the 19th ASEAN-China Senior Officials Consultation, the

Chinese side announced its willingness to commence discussions with ASEAN on a COC

later in the year.

Two explanations account for Chinas demarche. First, Chinese leaders reportedly viewed

past policy on the South China Sea as counterproductive. They sought to insulate China-

ASEAN relations from territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Second, China faced a

more unified ASEAN. In 2013, Brunei assumed the ASEAN Chair and gave priority to
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/325022/news/nation/phl-says-china-expanding-territory-before-code-of-conduct-takes-effecthttp://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/325022/news/nation/phl-says-china-expanding-territory-before-code-of-conduct-takes-effecthttp://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/325022/news/nation/phl-says-china-expanding-territory-before-code-of-conduct-takes-effecthttp://globalnation.inquirer.net/84879/navy-aerial-survey-shows-75-concrete-blocks-dotting-panatag-shoalhttp://globalnation.inquirer.net/84879/navy-aerial-survey-shows-75-concrete-blocks-dotting-panatag-shoalhttp://globalnation.inquirer.net/84879/navy-aerial-survey-shows-75-concrete-blocks-dotting-panatag-shoalhttp://guangxi.chinadaily.com.cn/liuzhou/2013-09/05/content_16946031.htmhttp://guangxi.chinadaily.com.cn/liuzhou/2013-09/05/content_16946031.htmhttp://guangxi.chinadaily.com.cn/liuzhou/2013-09/05/content_16946031.htmhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/philippines-says-it-finds/802046.htmlhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/philippines-says-it-finds/802046.htmlhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/philippines-says-it-finds/802046.htmlhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/philippines-says-it-finds/802046.htmlhttp://guangxi.chinadaily.com.cn/liuzhou/2013-09/05/content_16946031.htmhttp://globalnation.inquirer.net/84879/navy-aerial-survey-shows-75-concrete-blocks-dotting-panatag-shoalhttp://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/325022/news/nation/phl-says-china-expanding-territory-before-code-of-conduct-takes-effect


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initiating discussions with China on a COC. Thailand, as ASEANs country coordinator for

dialogue relations with China, and Indonesia both began to play more proactive roles.

China responded by dispatching Foreign Minister Wang Yi on two trips to Southeast Asia to

sound out his counterparts and to make preparations for the ASEAN-China Summit in

October. Wangs first visit in late April/early May included Thailand, Indonesia, Singaporeand Brunei; during the second visit in August he took in Malaysia, Thailand, Laos, and

Vietnam.

At a press conference in early August, Wang Yi was careful to note that China and ASEAN

had only agreed to hold consultations on moving forward the process on the Code of

Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) under the framework of implementing the

Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Wang also noted

in a pointed reference to the Philippines that, some parties held different ideason how to

promote the process of COC.

Significantly, Wang Yi highlighted four reasons for why the COC consultations would be aprolonged process. First, he stated that the expectations of unnamed parties for a quick fix

were neither realistic nor serious. Second, Wang noted that no country or countries could

impose their will and that consultations would proceed only on the basis of consensus. Third,

he recalled that in the past outside interference had caused China-ASEAN talks on a COC to

bog down. Fourth, he cautioned that consultations could only proceed step-by-step.

China and ASEAN held their first round of formal consultations on the COC in Suzhou,

China from September 14-15. This meeting drew up a work plan on the DOC for 2013-14,

approved an expert group to assist in developing the COC, and agreed to meet in Thailand in

early 2014. Immediately after the meetingthe China Daily reported, Manila once again tried

to disrupt China-ASEAN consultations. Before the Suzhou meetings, the Philippines again

started a war of words with China. It fabricated a story that China had laid some concrete

blocks on Huangyan Islands

Despite this promising start, it is clear that some major procedural differences will have to be

overcome. China insists that consultations on the COC can only take place under the

framework of the DOC. The 2002 DOC listed five areas for cooperation. Only four joint

working groups have been set and so far not one project has been approved or funded.

ASEAN prefers that the DOC and COC discussions be separated with each proceeding on its

own track. Some in ASEAN argue that the COC should be implemented piecemeal, that is, as

soon as agreement is reached on one measure it should be implemented immediately.

Moving Forward

The2002 ASEAN-China DOCcalls for the parties to exercise self-restraint in the conduct

of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability and to

refrain from occupying presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features

and to handle their differences in a constructive manner. The Philippine-China dispute over

blocks or rocks at Scarborough Shoal is an illustration that positive diplomatic progress on

a COC could be set back at any time by any party failing to exercise restraint. This applies

equally to the Philippines and China.
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Nearly a month has passed since the Philippines first raised allegations about new activities at

Scarborough Shoal, yet no further information has been forthcoming. It is incumbent on the

Philippines to provide further details to substantiate its accusations that China violated the

2002 DOC by placing concrete blocks in Scarborough Shoal as a prelude to construction.

The Philippines allegations raise more questions than answers. Is there any better imagery todetermine if the blocks are not rocks, as the Chinese claim? Why hasnt this imagery been

released? When were the blocks placed in Scarborough Shoal? If, as some analysts argue, the

blocks form a haphazard pattern, what is the basis for the conclusion that they are foundations

for future construction?

China has been disingenuous in its dismissal of claims made by the Philippines. For example,

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Leiresponded to a questionon this issue by stating,

what the Philippine side said is not true.

This phrasing makes it unclear whether he was denying that China had placed the blocks

there in the first place, or denying accusations that China planned construction activities inScarborough Shoal, or both.

One regional security analyst, for example, has speculated that the concrete blocks were used

as ballast by Chinese fishermen and discarded once they reached the fishing grounds at

Scarborough Shoal. If this is the case, dumping concrete blocks would be an environmentalnot a security matter. China, which has physical control over Scarborough Shoal, should

invite the worlds media and marine experts to visit Scarborough Shoal and make their own

independent determination.
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Thayer To Isolate Philippines, China Woos ASEAN