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Background Brief
United States: Implications ofObamas No Show in Southeast
Asia
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 4, 2013
[client name deleted]
We request your assessment about the cancellation of US
President Barack Obama'stravels to the Southeast Asia region as a
result of the US government shutdown.
Mr Obama has cancelled his visits to Malaysia and the
Philippines next week, and
also his attendance at the APEC Leaders Summit in Bali, the East
Asia Summit and
the US-ASEAN Summit in Brunei. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping
is visiting Indonesia
and Malaysia, while Premier Li Keqiang is visiting Thailand,
Vietnam and Brunei for
the East Asia Summit.
Our specific concerns are as follows:
Q1- How will/should countries in the region view Mr Obama's
no-show and how
would it impact the US' standing/influence in the region, and
why?ANSWER: Countries in the region are well aware of special
circumstances in which
ASEAN heads of government/state have had to pull out of summit
commitments
because of internal domestic politics in the past. The leaders
of Southeast Asian
countries most closely allied with the US will understand the
reasons why President
Obama has had to cancel his visit. But the wider circle of
political elites and many
regional academics will seize on this as an indication that that
the US rebalance is
not an absolute but a contingent commitment.
From the moment he took office President Obama has led from the
top in engaging
ASEAN and Southeast Asia. Recall Hillary Clintons cry, we are
back! The positive
impact of Obamas engagement with Southeast Asia in his first and
early years of the
second term have now been set back. It is not so much the
President has cancelled
his visit, but the disarray and divisions in American domestic
politics that creates
uncertainty in the region over the future Obamas policy of
rebalancing.
For countries not closely allied with the US, Obamas no show
will reinforce their
policy of bandwagoning with China.
Q2- In turn, how would Mr Obama's no-show impact China's
relations with ASEAN as
a grouping and individual ASEAN countries, particularly those
like the Philippines and
Vietnam that are logged in maritime disputes with China? Is
China able to take
advantage or are there challenges it faces, and why?
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
7/27/2019 Thayer United States: Implications of Obamas No Show
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ANSWER: President Obamas single handedly revived the ASEAN-US
Leaders
Meeting. A year ago this was elevated to the ASEAN-US Summit.
Obamas no show
will be a huge setback, reviving memories of the Bush
Administrations no show. It
will be another year before this round of summits is back on the
calendar.
Two ASEAN countries will be affected the most Malaysia and the
Philippines.Malaysia has engaged with China economically, and has
quietly engaged with the US
militarily. Malaysia also joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TRPP) group, Obamas
no show will aid Malaysian critics of the TPP. Malaysia was due
to host separate
visits by Obama and Xi Jinping. Malaysias approach to balance
these two major
powers will become more difficult in the wake of Obamas no
show.
The Philippines is a US treaty ally. Obamas cancellation will
come as a bitter
disappointment because he has visited other countries in the
region but not the
Philippines. Obamas visit would have provided the occasion for
an announcement
on where the Philippines-US Joint Vision Statement is
headed.
In Vietnams case, it is clear that no visit by Obama to Hanoi
was forthcoming this
year despite Vietnamese lobbying. President Obama did promise
his Vietnamese
counterpart in July that he would try his best to visit before
his term in office ended.
More importantly, Secretary Hagel is due to visit Vietnam next
year. This will suit
Vietnam in its delicate approach to balancing Beijing and
Washington.
China has to do little to reap benefits from the dysfunctional
political system in the
United States that has hobbled the worlds most powerful country.
But nothing in
Obamas cancellation will affect the current balance of power and
US naval primacy
in the western Pacific. The nuts and bolts of rebalancing in the
defence and security
realm will continue.Even as Obama is grounded by domestic
in-fighting, Secretary of State John Kerry is
in Japan shoring up the alliance, while Secretary of Defense
Chuck Hagel is in South
Korea overseeing the evolution of that alliance.
Q3- So far, the Chinese media have been quite muted in its
reports/commentary on
the US government shutdown and Mr Obama's no-show. What are the
possible
reasons?
ANSWER: China has long preached non-interference in the internal
affairs of other
states. The Chinese government therefore will be circumspect in
its reaction.
Chinese leaders have an interest in Obama showing up because
this would haveprovided the presidents of the two countries another
opportunity to discuss bilateral
issues and regional security. The Chinese media, especially
publications that appear
independent of the government, will have a field day as academic
commentators
offer their opinions on Americas demise.
All in all Obama cancellation of his planned visit to four
Southeast Asian states and
attendance at three summit meetings is a devastating blow to the
Presidents policy
of engagement with Southeast Asia. Only the United States could
press for
discussion of maritime security, cyber and non-proliferation at
the East Asia Summit.
Americas allies would have chimed in with their support. Without
Obama many
countries, including Australia, will pull their punches. They
prefer to follow theleader rather than take the point (leadership
role).
