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ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer

PresentationtoInternationalWorkshoponAsiaPacificSecurity,NationalInstituteofDefense

Studies,Tokyo,

Japan,

January

17

18,

2012

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Introduction

ecur y a enges ac ng e nam

ImplicationsforDefenseSector

ProspectsforRegionalCooperation

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14th mostpopulous

GDP(ppp)

US

$277

42nd inworld

GDP(official

exchange

rate on

LowerMiddleIncome

capitaincome

of

US

$3,100(ppp)

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VietnamPeoplesArmy

MilitaryService Size

,

Navy 13,000

NavalInfantry 27,000

,

subtotal 482,000

BorderDefence

Command40,000

Total 522,000

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2.SecurityChallengesFacingVietnam

Impactglobalfinancialcrisis

Disputesoversovereignty

Nontraditionalsecurityissues

2009

Defence White

Paper

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Current

Security

ChallengesManagingexternalrelations

SouthChinaSeasovereigntydisputes

Forcemodernization

Borderissues

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, ,

development

,

diversification

of

relations

a

friend

and

SecuritythroughASEAN

Vietnamas

the

pivot

in

U.S.

China

relations

RelationswithJa an India FranceandUK

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VietnameseNavalModernisation

BPS500MissileBoatSvetlyakclassFastAttackCraft

Gepardclass

Guided

Missile

Frigates

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ExtendedRange

ArtilleryMunitions

BastionAntiShip

BrahMos Cruise

Missile

ss e

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SouthChinaSeaDisputes

VietnamsMaritimeDevelopmentStrategyto2015

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China

Cambodia

ar me

InternationalPeacekeeping

Commitmentto

serve

under

United

Nations

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Funding

12 Modernizenationaldefence industry

Internationaldefence cooperation

56 Deve oping

Joint

Operations

Forces

Reducesizeofstandingarmy

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Transferbordersecurityduties

78 Expand

capabilities

Maritime

Police

Divestitureofcommercial

10 Upgrade

Professional

Military

Education

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.

ASEAN ARF ASEAN+

ADMM

ADSOM ISMMS

ADMMPlus

EWGMS

ServiceChiefs

APSC

AMF AMFPlus?

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e ence n sters eet ng

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EvolvingRegionalSecurityArchitecture

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ProfessorCarlyleA.Thayer

PresentationtoInternationalWorkshoponAsiaPacificSecurity,NationalInstituteofDefense

Studies,Tokyo,

Japan,

January

17

18,

2012