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THE 2006 HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: The Latest Findings in the Context of a Quarter-Century of Houston Surveys. STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG AMI Community Leadership Forum 22 April 2006. THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982–2006). Supported by a consortium of foundations, corporations, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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THE 2006 HOUSTON AREA SURVEY: The Latest Findings in the Context of a Quarter-Century of Houston Surveys
STEPHEN L. KLINEBERGAMI Community Leadership Forum
22 April 2006
Supported by a consortium of foundations, corporations, and individuals, the HAS has conducted random-digit- dialed interviews, in English and Spanish, with 25 succes- sive representative samples of Harris-County residents.
No other city in America has been the focus of a long-term study of this scope. None more clearly exemplifies the na- tion’s ongoing economic and demographic transformations.
In 14 of the past 16 years, the surveys were expanded to reach at least 450 Anglos, 450 Blacks, and 450 Hispanics.
In 1995 and 2002, the research included multi-lingual inter-views with large representative samples from Houston’sAsian communities, the only such surveys in the country.
THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982–2006)
In May 1982, two months after the first survey in this series, Houston’s oil boom suddenly collapsed.
The region recovered from deep recession in the mid 1980s to find itself in the midst of:
• A restructured economy, and
• A demographic revolution.
Using identical questions across the years, the surveys
have tracked area residents’ experiences and attitudes regarding many aspects of these remarkable trends.
How the city ultimately responds to the challenges these transformations represent will be significant not only for the Houston future, but for the American future as well.
AN OVERVIEW OF THE PAST 25 YEARS
FIGURE 1: PERCENT RATING JOB OPPORTUNI-TIES AS “EXCELLENT” OR “GOOD” (1982-2006)
38
27
18
31
67
52
55
50
4039
67
7372
52
48
4140
27
29
4546
11
47
41
76
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Year of Survey
Pe
rce
nt
Giv
ing
Po
sit
ive
Ra
tin
gs
Percent rating "job opportunities in the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."
THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY
The “resource economy” of the Industrial Age has
now receded into history, replaced by a fully global and increasingly high-tech “knowledge economy.”
The “blue collar path” to financial security has largely disappeared. The good-paying jobs today require high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.
In 2005, 64 percent agreed that “there are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.” In 2006, 78 percent disagreed that “a high school education is enough to get a good job.”
From now on, as the saying goes, “What you earn depends on what you’ve learned.”
RESULT #1: AN “HOURGLASS” ECONOMY
In the new knowledge-based, two-tiered economy . . .
Poverty increases, even as the city grows richer.
Opportunities narrow for many, while they expand for others.
Income inequalities grow ever wider and deeper.
The source of wealth today has less to do with control over natural resources and more to do with human resources.
A city’s well-being will increasingly depend upon its ability to nurture, attract, and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high-tech companies.
Houston’s prosperity in the new economy will be determined
in part by the city’s ability to develop into a more environ- mentally and aesthetically appealing urban destination.
This will require major continuing improvements in mobility; downtown revitalization; air and water quality; the venues for sports, arts, and culture; the abundance of parks, trees, and bayous; the protection of hiking, boating and birding areas.
RESULT #2: THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF “QUALITY-OF-PLACE” CONSIDERATIONS
FIGURE 2: THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THEHOUSTON AREA TODAY (1982-2006)
28
4037
60
2120 19
59
45
31
222226
48
333334
87
343
13
98
8
3741
43
51
19
1298
1110
1214
12
1518
25
13
42
31
24
20
2723
26
10
72
21
131110
24
13
3134
35
60
73
65
54
39
49
116
171413
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
traffic economy crime
"What would you say is the biggest problemfacing people in the Houston area today?"
traffic economy
crime
traffic
FIGURE 3: THE IMPORTANCE OF A MUCH IMPROVED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM AND OF INCLUDING A RAIL COMPONENT (1991-2006)
63
57
52
45
47
34
32
4546
49
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1991 1993 2003 2004 2006
Perc
en
t S
ayin
g,
"V
ery
Im
po
rtan
t"
How important for Houston's futureis the development of a much
improved mass transit system?
And how important is it for that transit system to have a rail component?
FIGURE 4: SUPPORT FOR THE DEATH PEN- ALTY VS. LIFE IMPRISONMENT (1999-2006)
64
6160
6364
68
5754
53
55
53
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year of Survey
Per
cen
t o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
For: "the death penalty for per-sons convicted of murder."
For: "a true life sentence without the possibility ofparole, as an alternative to the death penalty."
The penalty for persons convicted of first-degree murder should gener-ally be: life imprisonment, either with no chance for parole or with a chance for parole after 25 years; rather than the death penalty.
Between 1492 and 1965, 82 percent of all the human beings who came to these shores came from Europe.
Under the notorious 1924 “National Origins Quota Act,” immigration was dramatically reduced, and the newcomers were restricted almost exclusively to Northern Europeans.
In 1965, the “Hart-Celler Act” greatly increased the numbers of immigrants once again, and established new preferences based primarily on family reunification and professional skills.
As a result, new immigrant streams — non-European and of striking socioeconomic diversity — are rapidly transforming the composition of the Houston, and American, populations.
U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY BEFORE AND AFTER THE REFORM ACT OF 1965
FIGURE 5: THE NUMBERS OF DOCUMENTED U.S. IMMIGRANTS, BY DECADE (1820-2000)
Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov).
5.736
4.107
9.095
7.338
4.493
3.322
2.515
1.035
0.528
8.795
3.688
5.247
2.812
2.315
2.598
1.713
0.599
0.143
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1821-1830
1831-1840
1841-1850
1851-1860
1861-1870
1871-1880
1881-1890
1891-1900
1901-1910
1911-1920
1921-1930
1931-1940
1941-1950
1951-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
Nu
mb
ers
of
Imm
igra
nts
(In
Mil
lio
ns)
THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION
Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y., closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago, Houston is at the forefront of the new ethnicity that is re- fashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America. Throughout all of its history . . .
• Houston was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,
• Dominated and controlled, in a taken-for-granted way, by white men.
Today . . .
• This is one of the most culturally diverse metropolitan areas in the country.
• All of Houston’s ethnic communities are now “minorities.”
FIGURE 6: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFOR-MATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2000)
Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; total populations are given in parentheses.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1960(1,243,258)
1970(1,741,912)
1980(2,409,547)
1990(2,818,199)
2000(3,400,578)
Pop
ulat
ion
(in
Mill
ions
)
Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others
0.3% 6.0%
19.8%
73.9%
0.8%
9.9%
20.1%
69.2%
2.1%
15.5%
19.7%
62.7%
4.1%
22.7%
19.1%
54.0%
6.5%
33.0%
18.3%
42.2%
33.0%
INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE
Two ongoing revolutions: The “aging” and the “colorizing,” a.k.a. the “graying” and the “browning,” of America.
Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, and so are the 76 million babies born between 1946 and 1964, now 41 to 59. In the next 30 years, the numbers aged 65+ will double.
The younger populations who will replace them are dispro- portionately non-Anglo and considerably less privileged.
The “aging of America” is thus as much a division along ethnic lines as it is along generational lines.
Nowhere is this transformation more clearly seen than in the Houston area.
FIGURE 7: THE PROPORTIONS IN FOUR AGE GROUPS WHO ARE ANGLO, BLACK, HISPAN-IC, AND ASIAN OR OTHER (2000-2005)6
65.1
44.7
28.5
13.8 15.117.1
22.3
7.7
14.4
31.1
41.9
4.0 5.47.1 6.6
74.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Ages 60-95 (N=647) Ages 45-59 (N=959) Ages 30-44 (N=1,178) Ages 18-29 (N=792)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Anglo Black Hispanic Asian/Other
FIGURE 8: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN FIVE HOUSTON COMMUNITIES (1994-2005)
75
12
20
51
15
19
28
34
25
18
31
36
31
15
36
29
16
7
17
9
42
12
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Asian Immigrants(N=1,018)
US-born Anglos(N=4,866)
US-born Blacks(N=4,725)
US-born Latinos(N=2,112)
Latino Immigrants(N=2,829)
Per
cent
of
Res
pond
ents
Less than H.S. H.S. diploma Some college College degree Post-graduate
FIGURE 9: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN FOUR ASIAN COMMUNITIES (1995, 2002)
16
6
2 3
23
12 12
7
24
1617
13
2931
39
58
35
30
20
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Vietnamese (N=292) Chinese/Taiwanese(N=251)
Indians/Pakistanis(N=222)
Filipinos (N=76)
Per
cent
of R
espo
nden
ts
Less than H.S. H.S. diploma Some college College degree Post-graduate
FIGURE 10: BELIEFS ABOUT ABORTION AND HOMOSEXUALITY (1997-2005)
54.5
32.7
58.856.5
33.1
54.150.3
57.1
29.3
50.8
58.8
33.2
54.8 56.554.0
36.5
49.1
59.3
05
101520253035404550556065707580
Believe "Abortion ismorally wrong."
For: "a law making it moredifficult for a woman to
obtain an abortion."
Believe "Homosexuality ismorally wrong."
"Something people cannotchange, not something
people choose."
Perc
ent o
f Res
pond
ents
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
(r=+.012, n.s.) (r=+.022, n.s.) (r=-.138, p=.000) (r=+.077, p=.001)
FIGURE 11: ADDITIONAL MEASURES OF SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (1991-2006)
60
56
66
19
2927 26
36
41
4038
4950
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year of Survey
Pe
rcen
t o
f R
es
po
nd
en
ts
For: "Allowing homosexuals toteach in the public schools."
[Homosexuality is primarily a matter of personal choice.]
Agree: "Homosexual couples should be legally permitted to adopt children."
FIGURE 12: POSITIVE RATINGS OF THE RELATIONS AMONG ETHNIC GROUPS IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1992-2006)
33
25
29
44 44
49
49
52
5051
48
42
29
30
32
23
26
20
38
35
2830
23
3540
46
20
24
15
19
16
11
32
3940
42
47
50
25
30
4140
23
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pe
rce
nt
Giv
ing
Po
sit
ive
Ra
tin
gs
Anglos Blacks Latinos
Percent rating "the relations amongethnic groups in the Houston area"as either "excellent" or "good"
FIGURE 13: ATTITUDES TOWARD THE NEW IMMIGRATION (1994–2006)
46
60
3635
4845
5249
69
66
64
5957
35
46
4140
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year of Survey
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
"The increasing ethnic diversity in Houston will eventually become a source of great strength
for the city" (vs. "a growing problem").
Disagree that: "We should take action to reduce the number of new
immigrants coming to America."
"Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American
economy than they take."
FIGURE 14: PERSPECTIVES ON THE AMERICAN FUTURE (1988-2006)
45
39
54
26
42
45
37
4441
48
4344
3534
31
3435
30
53
48
57
51
68
47
59
5355
46
5351
5959
64
6161
67
45
48
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Per
cent
of R
espo
nden
ts
"When you look ahead to the next few years, doyou tend to believe that the country is headed
for better times or more difficult times?"
["Better times."]
["More difficult times."]
FIGURE 15: INTERETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN BELIEFS ABOUT EQUALITY OF OPPORTU-NITY IN AMERICAN SOCIETY (HAS, 2006)
56 57
52
27
22
28
77
68
58
70
52
6163
34
46
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Blacks, other minoritieshave same opportunities
as whites in U.S.
Blacks are 'often'discriminated against in
Houston.
Hispanics are 'often'discriminated against in
Houston.
The criminal justicesystem in Houston isbiased against blacks.
If the Katrina victims hadbeen white, governmentwould have responded
more quickly.
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Anglos Blacks Latinos
On September 1, 2005, thousands of evacuees began arriving by bus into the Reliant Complex and the GRB. Some 60,000 ordinary Houstonians came out to help, giving unexpected evidence of civic engagement in a city where measures of community connectedness (“social capital”) are generally low.
On January 1, the Dallas Morning News, despite time-honored rivalries, chose the city of Houston as its “Texan of the Year.”
By mid-October, concerns were mounting about the impact of the evacuees on schools, hospitals, and crime. Additional migrants were coming from other cities to benefit from Hous- ton’s generosity, and most of the “guests,” particularly those in greatest need, were showing little interest in going home.
KATRINA IN TWO PHASES: FROM CIVIC PRIDE TO “COMPASSION FATIGUE”?
FIGURE 16: PERCEPTIONS OF THE EFFECTS ON HOUSTON OF THE EVACUEES (HAS, 2006)
97
74
66
2
2225
14
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
The Houston community reallycame together to help the evacuees.
Helping the evacuees has put aconsiderable strain on the Houston
community.
A major increase in violent crimehas occurred in Houston because
of the evacuees.
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Agree
Disagree
No opinion
FIGURE 17: REPORTED INTERACTIONS WITH THE KATRINA EVACUEES (HAS, 2006)
85
55
5
14
45
95
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Did you donate any money, food,other items, or volunteer time to
help the evacuees?
Did you have any personalinteraction with any of the
evacuees?
Did you ever have any evacueesstaying in your home?
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Yes
No
No answer
FIGURE 18: SUMMARY ASSESSMENTS OF THE IMPACT OF THE KATRINA EXPERIENCE (2006)
23
36
47 47
30
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Do you think Houston would ultimately be better off orworse off if most of the evacuees decided to stay
here?
On balance, would you say that the overall impact ofthe evacuees on Houston has been a good thing for
the city or a bad thing for the city?
Pe
rce
nt
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
"Better off."
"Worse off."
(No difference) (Don't know)
"Good thing."
"Bad thing."
(Don't know)
CAN KATRINA’S CIVIC ENERGY BE RECAPTURED TO ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES THAT LIE AHEAD?
This city and nation will need to nurture a far more educated workforce and develop effective policies to reduce the growing inequalities and prevent a new urban underclass.
In order to attract the nation’s most innovative companies and the most talented individuals, Houston must continue to make progress in becoming a considerably more environ- mentally and aesthetically appealing urban destination.
If the region is to flourish in the new century, it will need to develop into a much more inclusive and unified multiethnic society, one with true equality of opportunity, where all can participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.
Professor Stephen L. KlinebergDepartment of Sociology, MS-28Rice University, P. O. Box 1892Houston, Texas 77251-1892
Telephone: 713-348-3484 or 713-665-2010
email address: [email protected]
Web: www.houstonareasurvey.org
For additional copies of the 2005 report, call: 713-348-4225
CONTACT INFORMATION
