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The Allstate Corporation Pat Macellaro: Vice President, Investor Relations Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference March 8, 2016 ®

The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

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Page 1: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

The Allstate CorporationPat Macellaro: Vice President, Investor RelationsRaymond James 2016 Institutional Investors ConferenceMarch 8, 2016

®

Page 2: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Information

This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information. Additional information on factors that

could cause results to differ materially from those projected in this presentation is available in the 2015 Form 10-K,

in our most recent earnings release, and at the end of these slides. These materials are available on our website,

allstateinvestors.com, under the “Quarterly Investor Info” link.

This presentation also contains some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of those measures to

GAAP measures within our most recent earnings release and investor supplement. These materials are available

on our website, allstateinvestors.com, under the “Quarterly Investor Info” link.

1Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

Page 3: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Competitively differentiated strategy based on:

• Customer segmentation

• Diversified portfolio of businesses

• Analytics-based decision making

Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance and investments

• Auto, homeowners, other personal lines, life insurance, and workplace benefits

• Investment grade fixed income and performance-based equity portfolio

Growth by offering unique customer value propositions and expanding the product portfolio and geographic footprint

Proactive approach to risk and return

More than $11 billion in cash returned to common shareholders since 2011

Nation’s largest publicly held personal lines insurer, serving 16 million households

Five year total shareholder return of 116% vs. S&P 500 of 80%

We Are The Good Hands®

Allstate is an Attractive Investment Opportunity

2Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

Page 4: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Brand

Neutral

Self-

Serve

Local Advice

and Assistance

Brand

Sensitive

Deliver the Best Value to Each Customer Segment by Offering Unique Products and Services at a Competitive Price

Pricing Sophistication, Analytics and Risk Management

Product and Service Breadth and Innovation

Differentiated Value Propositions for each Consumer Segment

Claims Capabilities

Key Capabilities Across All Customer Segments

3

Technology

Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

Page 5: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Allstate Brand Auto

− Attractive returns on capital

− Sophisticated pricing

− Claim settlement capabilities

− Drivewise® telematics offering

Allstate Brand Homeowners

− Target customers prefer to bundle products; improves auto retention

− Attractive returns on capital more than compensate for volatility

Allstate Financial

− Life Insurance – good returns and potential

− Workplace Benefits (3.3M policies) - attractive growth and returns

− Managing annuity block returns through investment portfolio allocation

Allstate Investments

− Proactive approach to risk and return

Diversified Portfolio of Businesses

4

Sources of Operating Income(1)

at YE 2015 ($2.1B)

(1) Allstate Brand Auto and Homeowners = after-tax underwriting income, Allstate Financial = Operating Income, Property Liability Net Investment Income is after-tax. Not included in chart 2014: Other Property-Liability businesses account for an after-tax underwriting loss of $131M, and Corporate accounts for an operating loss of $312M. Not included in chart 2015: Other Property-Liability businesses account for an after-tax underwriting loss of $9M, and Corporate accounts for an operating loss of $298M.

Allstate Brand Auto

Allstate Brand Home

EsuranceEncompass

Other Allstate Brand

AF Premiums & Contract

Charges

Net Investment

Income

Realized Capital

Gains and Losses

Sources of Revenue at Year-End 2015 ($35.7B)

Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

Allstate Brand Auto21%

Allstate Brand Home26%

Property-Liability Net Investment

Income 31%

Allstate Financial

Operating Income

22%

Sources of Operating Income(1)

at YE 2014 ($2.4B)

Allstate Brand Auto6%

Allstate Brand Home38%

Property-Liability Net Investment

Income 35%

Allstate Financial

Operating Income

21%

Page 6: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

(1) Allstate Brand Auto results prior to 2011 are not adjusted for DAC accounting change adopted in 2012.(2) Assumes after tax margin and investment yield at 3:1 premium / surplus ratio. Average of the years 2011-2015.

Profit improvement plan leverages national and local capabilities:

− Auto insurance rate increases of $1.1 billion approved across all three underwriting brands in 2015

− Underwriting guideline changes intended to slow new business and target underperforming segments and geographies

− Claims organization focused on operational excellence

− Expense spending reductions resulted in a 1.2 point lower property-liability expense ratio compared to 2014

Recent Auto Profitability Impacted by a Sudden, Sharp Increase in Accident Frequency

5Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Allstate Brand Total Auto Property Damage Gross Frequency: Indexed to Year-end 1996

100

80

90

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Allstate Brand Auto Combined Ratio1

Operating Income Return on Required Capital(2)

5-year average: ~16%

Page 7: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

(1) Allstate Brand Homeowners results prior to 2011 are not adjusted for DAC accounting change adopted in 2012.(2) Average gross premium excludes Canada in 2011 and prior.

Allstate Brand Homeowners a Competitive Advantage

6

Repositioned homeowners business to adapt to dramatic increase in severe weather in 2008

− Average gross premium increased over 30% from 2008 – 2015 and approximately 45% from 2005 - 2015

− Reduced size of the business by ~25% (2 million policies) from peak in 2006 to the bottom in Q1 2014

− Significant shift to $1,000 and higher base deductibles

− House & Home® product, which appropriately prices roofing losses, accounts for over 20% of total Allstate brand homeowner premium

− Cumulative underwriting income of $4.6B from 2012 – 2015, which includes $5.0B of catastrophe losses

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Average gross premium2 $799 $832 $850 $861 $883 $943 $999 $1,074 $1,115 $1,140 $1,155

Catastrophe losses ($B) $4.1 $0.6 $1.1 $2.7 $1.6 $1.8 $2.9 $1.4 $1.0 $1.4 $1.2

Underwriting income ($B) ($1.9) $1.4 $0.5 ($1.1) ($0.1) ($0.3) ($1.3) $0.7 $1.4 $1.1 $1.4

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(CR)

Allstate Brand Homeowners Combined Ratio1

Severe weather

Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

Page 8: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Raymond James 2015 Institutional Investor Conference: March 3, 2015

Esurance Expanding Product Suite and Geographic Footprint

7(1) Esurance acquired Q4 2011

($ in Millions, except ratios) 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Written Premium $1,024 $1,310 $1,513 $1,613

Growth rate NA(1) 27.9% 15.5% 6.6%

Policies in Force 1,031 1,306 1,470 1,491

Growth rate NA(1) 26.7% 12.6% 1.4%

Recorded Combined Ratio 119.9 117.5 117.7 110.3

Expense Ratio 42.7 39.0 40.9 35.2

Underlying Loss Ratio 75.6 77.6 76.6 75.4

Esurance(1) Results

Auto Product LaunchesMarket Coverage 2015: 98% (added Alberta Canada in 2015)

WA

OR

MT

CO

AZNM

WY

ND

SD

OK

KS

NE

TX

AR

LA

MS AL GA

FL

SC

NC

IL

MO

IA

WIMI

INOH

KY

VACA

ID

UT

NV

MN

TN

WV

MA

PA

NY

ME

RI

NJ

DE

VT

NH

CT

MD

DC

Footprint prior to acquisition

Additions since acquisition

No current presence

Homeowners Product LaunchesMarket Coverage 2015: 49%

WA

OR

MT

CO

AZNM

WY

ND

SD

OK

KS

NE

TX

AR

LA

MS AL GA

FL

SC

NC

IL

MO

IA

WIMI

INOH

KY

VACA

ID

UT

NV

MN

TN

WV

MA

PA

NY

ME

RI

NJ

DE

VT

NH

CT

MD

DC

Page 9: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Expanding Allstate Exclusive Agency platform

• Underpenetrated markets

• Leveraging technology and analytics to increase advisory capacity

Successful history of selectively pursuing adjacent acquisitions

• Allstate Benefits

• Partnership Marketing Group

• Esurance

Leveraging synergies across businesses to serve the small business market

• Innovative, broad solutions to protect the business, the business owner and the employees

Building connected customer platform

• Expanding Allstate Drivewise® and Esurance DriveSense®

• Allstate Roadside Services innovation

Investing in Sustainable Value Creation

8Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

Page 10: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Individual Asset Performance

Proactive Investment Approach Balances Risk and Return

Market-Based Core

• Largely investment-grade fixed income and passive equity

• Predictable earnings and cash flows

• Highly diversified and liquid

• Low cost structure

• Sophisticated research and analytics

Market-Based Active

• Actively managed public market strategies

• Takes advantage of market presence and short-term opportunities

Performance-Based Long-Term

• Long-term idiosyncratic investments in private markets

• Invest with best-in-class partners

− Limited partnerships

− Co-investments

− Direct

Performance–Based Opportunistic

• Leverage investment expertise and research

• Investments in both public and private markets

• Liquidity and duration likely to be between market-based and performance-based investments

Market Performance

Less

Tra

din

g A

ctiv

ity

Mo

re Trad

ing A

ctivity

9

Source of Investment Return ($77.8B portfolio at Q4 2015)

Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

Page 11: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Allstate is an Attractive Investment Opportunity

(1) There were five dividend payments in 2012 10

Competitively differentiated strategy based on:

• Customer segmentation

• Diversified portfolio of businesses

• Analytics-based decision making

Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance and investments

• Auto, homeowners, other personal lines, life insurance, and workplace benefits

• Investment grade fixed income and performance-based equity portfolio

Growth by offering unique customer value propositions and expanding the product portfolio and geographic footprint

Proactive approach to risk and return

Long history of cash returns to shareholders

(1)

2.9% 3.1%1.5% 1.8% 1.8%

6.3% 5.2% 7.9%8.9%

10.5%

9.2%8.3%

9.4%

10.7%

12.3%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Common DividendsCommon Share Repurchases

Total Cash Return per Common Share

533

501

479

449

418

381

300

350

400

450

500

550

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

29% decline since 2010

End of Period Common Shares Outstanding

Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016

(Millions)

Page 12: The Allstate Corporation€¦ · •Customer segmentation •Diversified portfolio of businesses •Analytics-based decision making Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance

Forward-Looking Statements

Forward-Looking StatementsThis presentation contains “forward-looking statements” that anticipate results based on our estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject to uncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and may be identified by their use of words like “plans,” “seeks,” “expects,” “will,” “should,” “anticipates,” “estimates,” “intends,” “believes,” “likely,” “targets” and other words with similar meanings. We believe these statements are based on reasonable estimates, assumptions and plans. However, if the estimates, assumptions or plans underlying the forward-looking statements prove inaccurate or if other risks or uncertainties arise, actual results could differ materially from those communicated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements include risks related to: (1) adverse changes in the nature and level of catastrophes and severe weather events; (2) impacts of catastrophe management strategy on premium growth; (3) unexpected increases in the frequency or severity of claims; (4) regulatory changes, including limitations on rate increases and requirements to underwrite business and participate in loss sharing arrangements; (5) market convergence and regulatory changes on our risk segmentation and pricing; (6) the cyclical nature of the property and casualty business; (7) reestimates of reserves for claims; (8) adverse legal determinations regarding discontinued product lines and other legal and regulatory actions; (9) changes in underwriting and actual experience; (10) the influence of changes in market interest rates on spread-based products; (11) changes in estimates of profitability on interest-sensitive life products; (12) reducing our concentration in spread-based business and exiting certain distribution channels; (13) changes in tax laws; (14) our ability to mitigate the capital impact associated with life insurance statutory reserving requirements; (15) operational issues relating to a decline in Lincoln Benefit Life Company’s financial strength ratings ; (16) market risk and declines in credit quality relating to our investment portfolio; (17) our subjective determination of the fair value of our fixed income and equity securities and the amount of realized capital losses recorded for impairments of our investments; (18) competition in the insurance industry; (19) conditions in the global economy and capital markets; (20) losses from legal and regulatory actions; (21) restrictive regulation and regulatory reforms; (22) the availability of reinsurance at current levels and prices; (23) risks of our reinsurers; (24) a downgrade in our financial strength ratings; (25) the effect of adverse capital and credit market conditions; (26) failure in cyber or other information security; (27) the impact of a large scale pandemic, the threat or incurrence of terrorism or military action; (28) possible impairments in the value of goodwill; (29) changes in accounting standards; (30) the realization of deferred tax assets; (31) restrictions on our subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends; (32) restrictions under the terms of certain of our securities on our ability to pay dividends or repurchase our stock; (33) changing climate and weather conditions; (34) loss of key vendor relationships or failure of a vendor to protect confidential and proprietary information; and (35) failure to protect intellectual property. Additional information concerning these and other factors may be found in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the “Risk Factors” section in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement.

11Raymond James 2016 Institutional Investors Conference: March 8, 2016