Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
The Arctic winter stratosphere in PAMIP atmosphere-only experiments
Elisa Manzini (Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germay)
Tido Semmler and Thomas Jung (Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany)
Evangelos Tyrlis and Daniela Matei(Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany)
Rosie Eade, Steve Hardiman and Doug Smith (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom)
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to sea ice loss:• surface weather and climate (remote impact)• transport and ozone (local impact)
Screen et al NG 2018 Stratosphere: active component of the climate response to sea ice loss
Non stationary response Dependence on sea ice loss location
Peing and Magnusdottir JC 2014Screen JC 2017 …….
Representation of the stratosphere
Sun et al JC 2015Nakamura et al GRL 2016 …..
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
PAMIP atmosphere-only time slice experiments: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.6
• SST&SIC change: pd SST & SIC – pi SST & SIC• pdSIC change: pd – pi SIC, fixed pi SST• SST change: pd – pi SST, fixed pd SIC• futArcSIC change: futArc – pd SIC, fixed pd SST
• Atmospheric component of the MPI and AWI ESMs: ECHAM6 at T127L95 and ECHAM6 at T63L47 (LR)
• MET OFFICE MODEL
• Seasonal evolution of the ensemble an zonally-averaged zonal wind @ 60N. Daily, 5-day smoothed
• Wave Activity Budget for the Extratropical Lower Stratosphere. Ensemble-average, monthly mean
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Wave Activity Budget for the Extratropical Lower Stratosphere
epfz
epfy
Peing and Magnusdottir (2014)
Kushner Polvani (2004) Sigmond and Scinocca (2010) …….
ua
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Ensemble averaged changes Zonally-averaged Zonal Wind @ 60 N
exp11 - exp12 ua m/s 60N
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1 1
1
-4-3
-3 -3
-2
-2
-2
-2-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1-1-1
-1
-1
-1-1 -1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp13 - exp12 ua m/s 60N
0.5
0.50.5
1-6-5-4
-3 -2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1 -1
-1-1 -1
-1
-1-1-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
] stratosphereto
troposphere
echam6 T127L95
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
SST&SIC
pdSIC
Shaded: significance at 90%
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
exp11 - exp13 ua m/s 60N
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.51
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 1
1
2
2
3
3-3
-2-2 -2
-1
-1
-1 -1 -1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5 -0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp16 - exp11 ua m/s 60N0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1 1
1 1 1
2 2-2 -2 -2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1-1
-1-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
SST driven
mid winterstratosphere
somewhatunperturbed
echam6 T127L95
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
SST
futArcSIC
Shaded: significance at 90%
Ensemble averaged changes Zonally-averaged Zonal Wind @ 60 N
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
90N45N
100 hPa
10 hPa
NOV DEC JAN FEB
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
Ensemble averaged changes Wave activity budget [104 kg m s-4]
convergence
positive: upward epf
positive: upward epf
SST&SICpdSICSSTfutArcSIC
positive: equatorward epf
echam6 T127L95
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
echam6 T63L47
exp11 - exp12 ua m/s 60N
0.5
0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.50.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1 1
1
2 2
-5 -5-4 -4-3 -3-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp13 - exp12 ua m/s 60N
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1 1
1
2
-3-2 -2 -2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 - exp13 ua m/s 60N
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1 1
1
1 1
-4-3-2-2 -2
-1 -1 -1-1
-1
-1-1 -1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp16 - exp11 ua m/s 60N
0.5
0.5 0.5 0.5
0.5
0.50.5
0.5
0.5
0.50.51
1
1
1
1
1
23 -2-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5 -0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
SIC driven
Shaded: significance at 90%
SST driven
SST&SIC
pdSIC
SST
futArcSIC
Ensemble averaged changes Zonally-averaged Zonal Wind @ 60 N
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
90N45N
100 hPa
10 hPa
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
NOV DEC JAN FEB
convergence
positive: upward epf
positive: upward epf
SST&SICpdSICSSTfutArcSIC
positive: equatorward epf
Ensemble averaged changes Wave activity budget [104 kg m s-4]
echam6 T63L47
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
exp11 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.51 1
1
-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 - exp13 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.51 1
1
-1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp13 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
-3
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5-0.1
-0.1-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp16 - exp11 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1 0.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.51
1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 - exp13 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1 0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1-1
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp13 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-1
-0.5
-0.5-0.1
-0.1
-0.1-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp16 - exp11 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
-3
-1
-1-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
METOECHAM6 T127L95
exp11 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.51 1
1
-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 - exp13 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.51 1
1
-1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp13 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
-3
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5-0.1
-0.1-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10 pr
essu
re [h
Pa]
exp16 - exp11 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1 0.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
1
1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 - exp13 ua m/s DJF0.1
0.1
0.1 0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1-1
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1-0.1
20 40 60 801000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp13 - exp12 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.10.1
-1
-0.5
-0.5-0.1-0.1
-0.1-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp16 - exp11 ua m/s DJF
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
-3
-1
-1-0.5
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
20 40 60 80 [latitude]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
pdSIC change: pd – pi SIC, fixed pi SST
futArcSIC change: futArc – pd SIC, fixed pd SST
Ensemble averaged changes DJF Zonally-averaged Zonal Wind
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
EP-flux bottom
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
45-
90N
@ 1
00hP
a EP
Z [1
04 k
g m
s4 ]
EP-flux bottom
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
45-
90N
@ 1
00hP
a EP
Z [1
04 k
g m
s4 ]
NOV DEC JAN FEB NOV DEC JAN FEB
METOECHAM6 T127L95
SST&SICpdSICSSTfutArcSIC
45-90N @ 100 hPa upward EP flux [104 kg m s-4]
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
exp11 T63 ua m/s EQ
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
5
10-30-25-20
-15-15
-10
-10
-10
-10
-5-5
-5
-5
-5
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 T127 ua m/s EQ
1
11
1
1
5
5
5
1010
10
1515
1520
25-20-20 -15
-15
-15 -10
-10
-10
-10-5-5
-5
-5-5
-5
-5
-5-1
-1
-1
-1
-1-1
-1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [Jan is mt=10]
1000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
exp11 METO ua m/s EQ
1
1
11
1
1
5
55
51010
1010
1515
15 15
20
2020
-20-15
-15-10
-10
-10
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-5-5
-1
-1
-1
-1-1
-1
-1-1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141000
500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
METOECHAM6 T127L95
DJF DJF
Ensemble and zonally-averaged zonal wind at the Equator, pd SST & SIC
months, from IC
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
SUMMARY
Arctic winter stratosphere in PAMIP atmos-only experiments
Impact of sea ice loss: • Potential for a weaker stratospheric vortex, by increased wave activity • Seasonal timing of response varies: mid winter / early and late winter• Dependence to the forcing varies: past to present / present to future
Differences: Originating in the troposphere? What is the role of local thermal response to SIC? Tropospheric stationary waves?
SST impact: • Mixed: weaker / stronger stratospheric vortex
Role of initialization: • Coherent QBO for all members, from the initialization• Another ensemble with a different IC QBO phase?
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
pamip11 mean ua m/s JJA
0.5
0.5
0.5 0.50.5
0.5
0.5
1 1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3456789101216
1820
-2-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
20 40 60 80500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
pamip11 mean ua m/s SON
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
11
1
22
345678910121618
-5-4
-4
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1 -1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
20 40 60 80500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
pamip11 mean ua m/s DJF
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
12
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
5
5
5
6
6
67
7 78
89
910
1012
12
16-12-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3
-2 -2
-2-1
-1 -1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
20 40 60 80500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
pamip11 mean ua m/s MAM
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
11
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3456
-4-3-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
20 40 60 80500
200
100
50
20
10
pres
sure
[hPa
]
METO minus ECHAM6 T127L95