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The Bangchak Petroleum PLC.
Analyst Meeting 4Q2013 and FY2013
• World Oil Situation
• 4Q2013 and FY2013 Review
• Financial Performance
• 2014 Overview
AGENDA
World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoY)
3 Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook update, Jan 2014
IMF bumps its 2014 growth projections
Developed nations seen leading the way
IMF sees up to 20% deflation risk in euro zone
IMF holds developing nation growth forecast steady
3.0 3.7 3.9
1.9 2.2 2.3
-0.4
1.0
1.4 1.7
1.7 1.0
7.7 7.5 7.3
4.4
5.4 6.4
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2013 2014 2015
World US EU Japan China India
5.2
7.2
1.3
0.9
2.0
3.6
5.4
7.5
1.7
1.0
2.2
3.7
India
China
Japan
EU
US
World
2014
6.3
7.1
1.2
1.3
2.7
3.9
6.4
7.3
1.0
1.4
2.3
3.9
India
China
Japan
EU
US
World
Current
Previous
2015
Oil Market Outlook: Demand
4
90.04 91.29
92.60
88
89
90
91
92
93
2012 2013 2014
Africa
2012
2013
Europe
*Include Biofuel Demand
Global Oil Demand Growth (KBD)
Global Oil Demand* 2012-2014 (MBD)
+1.31, 1.43%
+1.25, 1.39%
Latin America
North America
FSU
Asia 2014
IEA revised global oil demand in 2014, increasing by 1.43% to 92.60 MBD due to improved world GDP growth rate especially a rebound in demand in North America and Europe after several years of declining consumption.
Expected higher uses of industrial fuels, especially GO, LPG, naphtha
Asia leading the global demand growth by 1.43% in 2014
-340
380 120
-510
-110 -20 100
130 110
270
140 220
790 540
680
170 130 170
230 220 170
Previous Est (Jan’14) +1.24, 1.37% +1.25, 1.37% 89.98 91.22 92.47
Source : IEA, Feb, 14
Middle East
• Total non‐OPEC production growth is forecast at 1.4 mb/d for 2013 and
1.7 mb/d for 2014.
• OPEC oil meeting in Vienna on 4 Dec 13 has kept their output target
unchanged at 30 MBD for 1H14. The next meeting on 11 Jun 14,
fast‐rising production from US light, tight oil formations and could put
pressure on OPEC’s crude oil output in 2H14.
• For short-term, TransCanada’s 700 KBD capacity Keystone South Pipeline
from the Cushing, Oklahoma to the Texas Gulf Coast is expected to begin
deliveries in early Jan14 which will stimulate more production from U.S.
refineries.
Source : IEA Feb, 14
*Include Biofuel Non-OPEC supply growth causing the decline in Call on OPEC in 2014
53.3 54.7 56.4
6.3 6.4 6.6
31.3
0
90.0 91.3 92.6
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014
OPEC Supply OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply Total Demand
Wo
rld
oil
bal
ance
(M
BD
)
Call on OPEC 29.6 MBD
Call on OPEC 30.2 MBD
Global Oil Supply and Balance
5
Tension and supply
disruption
Unconventional and
Alternative fuel
Efficiency gain
Fuel savings
Upward trend of
interest rate in US and EU
OPEC spare
capacity
U.S. crude oil
export allowed?
Global economic recovery (DM
recovered while EM have moderate growth)
Crude Oil Dubai price outlook
6
2015-2016
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120Dubai
WTI
Brent
DB(F)
104 101 104 105
105.5 106.5
2013 2014 2015 2016
103.5
2014
MENA tension
OPEC quota production
U.S. economic recovery
China Sustainable
growth
Libya’s production recovery?
U.S. Mid-term General election
Eurozone out Of recession
QE tapering
Iranian Sanction lifted?
Non-OPEC supply
Actual Average Dubai @2013 = 105.45 $/BBL
Dubai WTI Brent DB (F)
Factors to watch
Cracks Spread Outlook
7
2015-2016
2014
2013 2014 2015 2016
Factors to watch
Bu
llis
h
Be
aris
h
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30G.O. 0.05%S - DB
UNL 95 - DB
HSFO 3.5%S - DB
17.4 17.5 17.8
13.3 13.0 12.5
-6.75 -5.0 -4.0
$/BBL
17.25 16.75 17.5 18.0
13.0
14.0 15.0
11.0
-8.0
-4.0
-8.0 -7.0
G.O. 0.05%S - DB UNL 95 - DB
HSFO 3.5%S - DB
AVG 2013 = 17.82 G.O. 0.05%S - DB
AVG 2013 = 13.55 UNL 95 - DB
AVG 2013 = -8.01 HSFO 3.5%S - DB
+ Ongoing transportation fuel demand.
+ Refinery closure in Japan and Australia (Europe?)
+ Lower new refining capacity and project postponement
+ China started levying a imported biodiesel tax and some type of kerosene [slower export]
+ Lower fuel oil supply from ME and Russia.
- Effect of lower fuel price subsidy
- Some nuclear power plant restart/fuel switch in Japan.
- Lower import from Middle East as new capacity online
- More export cargoes from India to Asia.
+ Europe and China’s economic recovery
+ Moderate Asian economic growth
+ Uprising gasoline demand in Asia
+ More upgrading unit capacity
+ Lower fuel oil supply from ME and Russia.
- Chinese crude import liberalization?
- Effect of lower fuel price subsidy
- Efficiency gain, fuel savings
- New Emission Control Area (ECA)
• World Oil Situation
• 4Q2013 and FY2013 Review
• Financial Performance
• 2014 Overview
AGENDA
Operating Result (Consolidated)
9
186,514 165,246
9,348 7,770
6,568 5,564
1,383 1,783
1,396 422
4,653 4,273
3.38 3.10
Sales Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA (Refinery & Biofuel Business)
EBITDA (Marketing Business)
EBITDA (Solar Power Business)
Net Profit*
Earning per Share
FY2013 FY2012 Unit: THB Million
o +35% YoY in crude run
o +20% YoY in total sales volume growth
o +287% YoY in revenues from Solar Power Business
o Inventory Gain of THB 1,357 million (FY2012; Loss THB 674 Million)
o Gain from Oil Hedging Contract of THB 804 million (FY2012; THB 869 Million)
o Loss from FX forward contract of THB 923 million (FY2012; Gain THB 746 Million)
o Insurance compensation of THB 1,589 million (FY2012; THB 383 Million)
Yearly Summary
*Net profit attributable to owners of the company
Crude and Crack Spread Prices
10
14.37 18.15 14.54 12.63 9.18
13.55
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
UNL95/DB
109.05 108.09
100.80 106.2 106.81 105.45
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
17.10 19.52
16.75 17.39 17.70 17.82
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
GO/DB
-3.33 -7.3 -3.65
-10.57 -10.40 -8.01
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
FO/DB
• Higher than expect supply increase especially from China, while U.S. and European demand had been decreased significantly during winter.
• Unplanned shutdowns of Taiwan, India, and Japan refineries
• More demand in winter, especially cold weather in U.S. at the end of Q4/2013
• Some drawbacks of gasoil spread were from Indonesia and India’s currency depreciation and decreased government subsidies in some Asian countries
• The global demand growth rate was increased at a slower rate than supply growth.
• Non-OPEC supply, especially North America and Canada, rose by 1 million barrel
• A trend of Iraq’s oil production and oil exports had continuously gone up
Factors (FY2012/FY2013) DB
• Chinese teapot refineries and bunker demand declined due to China’s economic slowdown
• Arbitrage in flow to Asia whereas fuel oil demand in Japan decreased as they switched from fuel oil to LNG and coal.
73.71
99.95 95.61
100.61 101.17 99.34
60
70
80
90
100
110
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Refinery Business: Performance Review
11
KBD
Note In FY2012, There was an annual turnaround (TAM) and incident at Crude Distillation Unit (CDU3).
In FY2013, There was a temporary shutdown of Hydrocracking unit.
Target Crude run
+35% YoY
Crude Run (KBD)
Refinery Business: Performance Review
12
13%
54%
10%
20%
1%
FY2012
51% 38%
7% 5%
17%
49%
11%
20%
3%
FY2013
46%
47%
4% 3%
LPG
Gasoline
Jet
Diesel
Fuel Oil/VGO
Local
Far East
Middle East
Other
The level of Fuel Oil and VGO was high in FY2013 due to the temporary shutdown of Hydrocracking unit.
Crude Selection and Product Yield
45.7 KBD
37.6 KBD
Refinery Business: Performance Review
13
8.34 7.97 5.68 4.72 4.82 5.76
0.81 0.07
0.76 0.78 1.19
0.71
-0.84
2.08
-3.52
3.17 2.10 1.06
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Market GRM GRM Hedging Inventory G/L
8.31 10.12
2.92
8.67 8.10 7.53
-9% YoY
TOTAL GRM ($/BBL)
0.31 0.33 0.35 0.33 0.35 0.34
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Utilization rate
87% 92% 98% 93% 98% 95%
Biodiesel Business: Performance Review
14
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Average B100 Sales Volume (ML/MO)
11.86 14.87 13.60 12.83 14.14 13.86
Revenue (THB Million)
4,443 1,133 985 1,020 1,263 4,401
EBITDA (THB Million)
184 94 64 68 119 345
Production capacity 360,000 litre per day
In FY2013, the decrease in Revenue was from the decline in average B100 price.
The gross profit margin was increased from
1) An increase in sales volume.
2) An increase in margin per unit of B100 and glycerin.
There was an inventory gain of THB 160 million compared to THB 16 million in 2012.
Average Production (ML/Day)
Ethanol Business: Performance Review
15
Capacity: 400,000 litre/day
Raw material: Cassava, Cassava
Chips, and Molasses
COD: January 2013
FY2013
Production (ML) 81.6
Utilization Rate (%) 62%
Operating Days (Days) 306
Consolidated Financial Statement (Unit: THB Million)
FY2013
Sales Revenue 3,541
Gross Profit 716
EBITDA 565
Net Profit 160
Refinery Business: FY2013 Results
16
5,564 6,568
Refinery Business
Crude run increased by 35% YoY
Inventory Gain of THB 1,189 million in FY2013 compared to Inventory loss of THB -711 million in FY2012.
Insurance compensation of THB 1,518 million for BCP’s refinery in FY2013.
Biofuel Business
Biodiesel
Average Daily Production Rate increased by 10% YoY
B100 Sales Volume increased by 17% YoY
Inventory Gain of THB 160 million compared to THB 16 million in FY2012.
Ethanol
Start COD in January, 2013.
Total production of 81.6 ML in FY2013.
+18% YoY
The represented breakdown of EBITDA structure were including the elimination amounts.
EBITDA (THB Million)
97% 94%
3% 5% 1%
FY2012 FY2013
Refinery Biodiesel Ethanol
BCP Trading Channels
17
2,679 729 727 725 754 2,935
1,890 527 510 492 542 2,070
518 254 282 298 206 1,039
741 247 205 219 286 957
5,827 1,757 1,724 1,733 1,787 7,002 Total
BCP Refinery
% Data: FY2013 7,002 MM litre
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Retail Market
42%
Industrial Market 29%
Marketing Channel
Export 15%
Total Sales Volume (MM Litre)
Wholesale OIL
14%
Marketing Business: Performance Review
18
729 727 725 754
527 510 492 542
1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013
Retail Industrial
1,256 1,237 1,216 1,295
FY2012
4,569
1,890
2,679
FY2013
5,005
2,070
2,935
Note Total Sales Volume 5,005 MM Litre increased by 10% YoY from the ability to increase sales volume to
support a higher crude run and Company’s network expansion plan and service station quality improvement policy.
Retail and Industrial sales volume both increased by 10% YoY
+10% YoY
MK Total Sales Volume (MM Litre)
The Retail and Industrial figures represented including all products
Marketing Business : Performance Review
19
RM Sales Volume: Gasoline, Gasohol, and Diesel (MM Litre)
444 426 410 442
194 201 204 198 69 79 83 81 15 20 27 31 6
1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013
Diesel GSH 91/95 GSH E20 GSH E85 GR Plus 91
1,723
797
313 92 6
FY2013
1,627
590
173 26
258
FY2012
Note Gasohol products sales volumes increased by 59% when compared to 2012.
In 2013, there was an expansion of E20 and E85 service stations. The number of E20 service station was 678 stations and the number of E85 service station was 102 stations.
+10% YoY
+6% YoY
Diesel
+52% YoY Gasohol
+15% YoY Gasoline
The figures represented excluding lubricant and other products.
0.87
0.68
0.80 0.76 0.71 0.73
0.34 0.25 0.29
0.20 0.19 0.23
0.65
0.50 0.59
0.53 0.49 0.53
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Net Retail Margin Net Industrial Margin Net MKM
Marketing Business : Performance Review
20
Note Net Marketing Margin was at 0.53 Baht per litre. (FY2012; 0.53 Baht per litre)
Net Retail Margin decreased by 16%. Main reasons were cost increased from the using of ethanol produced from cassava, and the fluctuation in oil prices which impacted retail price adjustment mechanism.
Net Industrial Margin was decreased 33% from a price competition of Diesel in industrial market.
Net Marketing Margin (Baht/Litre)
368.10
127.90
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
38.9%
17.7%
12.7%
12.1%
7.4% 11.2%
Other
38.2%
15.1% 14.8%
12.7%
6.5% 12.8%
Other
Retail Business : Performance Review
Jan-Dec 2012 ≈ 13.8%
All Products
Data: Jan-Dec 2013
Note: 1. PTT figure was exclude PTT RM 2. All products excluding LPG and NG
Jan-Dec 2012 ≈ 16.2%
Standard
Co-Op
21
Gasoline
Avg. thruput per station
(K.litre/Service Station/Month)
Retail Market Share
Retail Business: Performance Review
22 Inthanin 232 296 +64
FY2012 FY2013
Strategic Collaboration
Inthanin Coffee
CRM Program
Avg. sales volume (ML/MO)
Members:
Members:
Diesel Club
GSH Club
BigC Mini 7 62 +55
FY2012 FY2013
22.66 28.78 32.77 36.19 35.61
553,643 634,994 715,058 796,368 850,223
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013
114,000 148,224 175,013
209,600 226,660
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013
9.18 11.51 15.63 18.02 18.85
98% 95%
2% 5%
FY2012 FY2013
Marketing Bangchak Bangchak Greennet
Marketing Business: FY2013 Results
23
1,783 1,383
Marketing Business
EBITDA was recorded at THB 1,383 Million, a decrease of 22% from FY2012.
The reasons were from the higher cost of ethanol and a price competition of Diesel in industrial market.
The represented breakdown of EBITDA structure were including the elimination amounts.
-22% YoY
EBITDA (THB Million)
Solar Power Business: Performance Review
24
FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Electricity Generation (MM kWh)
32.97 19.75 36.00 34.08 36.88 126.71
Revenue (THB Million)
378 229 422 381 431 1,463
EBITDA (THB Million)
422 218 392 372 415 1,396
Phase 2 : Bamnet Narong (16 MW PPA)
Phase 2 : Bang Pa Han (16 MW PPA)
3
4
5
6
7
Phase 1 : Bang Pa-In (38 MW PPA)
Unit: Hour
Unit: Hour
Unit: Hour
3
4
5
6
7
3
4
5
6
7
Target Irradiation Actual Irradiation
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
R&M Business (Company)
Contributing more margin BCP Synergy Business
Net MKM Contribution
Accounting GRM
$/BBL
Accounting GRM = Market GRM + Inventory Gain/Loss + Hedging Gain/Loss Net MKM Contribution = Net Marketing Margin weighted by crude run level GIM = Gross Integrated Margin In FY2012, there was an annual turnaround (TAM) and the incident in Crude Distillation Unit 3. 25
Unit: $/bbl FY2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2013
Accounting GRM 8.31 10.12 2.92 8.67 8.10 7.53
Net MKM 3.53 2.32 2.78 2.21 2.14 2.35
GIM 11.84 12.45 5.70 10.88 10.24 9.88
• World Oil Situation
• 4Q2013 and FY2013 Review
• Financial Performance
• 2014 Overview
AGENDA
0.83 0.99 0.50
3.10 3.38
EBITDA
Net Profit
Key Financial Highlight (Consolidated)
27
4Q2012 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2012 FY2013
EBITDA Margin 4.67% 5.57% 3.77% 4.70% 5.01%
Net Profit Margin 2.61% 2.98% 1.49% 2.60% 2.54%
43,952 46,062 48,064
165,246
186,514
4Q2012 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2012 FY2013
Revenue
Unit: THB Million
2,037 2,564
1,810
7,770
9,348
4Q2012 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2012 FY2013
Unit: THB Million
1,147 1,359 688
4,273 4,653
4Q2012 3Q2013 4Q2013 FY2012 FY2013
Unit: THB Million
+13% YoY +9% YoY
+20% YoY
EPS (Baht/Share)
Crude run increased by 35%
Sales volume increased by 20% Recognized insurance compensation of THB 1,589 Million
Gain from Hedging contract THB 804 Million
Loss from FX forward contract THB 923 Million
Solar Business generated EBITDA of THB 1,396 Million in
FY2013 due to fully operation of Phase 1 and COD of Phase 2
Financial Position (Consolidated)
28
* Including current portion of long-term debt
Long-Term Debt Portion
Long-Term Loan 17,834
Debentures 2,996
TOTAL 20,830
Debentures 14%
L/T Loan 86%
Net IBD/E Ratio (Times)
0.49
0.34 0.39
0.25
0.45
0.65
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Current Ratio (Times)
2.15
1.93
2.24
1.80
2.10
2.40
FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Unit: THB Million
6,527
17,092
16,999
31,771
8,005
19,175
13,754
29,919
Cash & Equivalents
Other Assets
PP&E
Inventory
31 Dec 2012
70,853 72,389
31 Dec 2013
Assets
15,282
20,830
1,297
34,981
Non Current Liabilities
Current Liabilities
L/T Debt*
Total Equity
Liabilities & Equity
31 Dec 2012 31 Dec 2013
18,218
19,023
1,290
32,323
70,853 72,389
2013 Credit Rating
Financial Performance: Refinery BU (Company)
29
FY2012 FY2013
THB Million $/BBL THB Million $/BBL
Market GRM 7,026 8.34 6,441 5.76
GRM Hedging 686 0.81 800 0.71
Inventory Gain/Loss (711) (0.84) 1,189 1.06
Total GRM 7,002 8.31 8,429 7.53
Other Income 138 0.16 134 0.12
Insurance Claim 310 0.37 1,518 1.36
FX Forward Contract 746 0.89 (923) (0.82)
Operating Expenses (2,793) (3.32) (2,942) (2.63)
EBITDA 5,403 6.41 6,217 5.56
Crude Run (KBD)
73.71
99.34
FY2012 FY2013
+35% YoY
Crack Spread ($/BBL)
FY2012 FY2013 YoY
AVG AVG (%)
UNL95/DB 14.37 13.55 -5.71%
IK/DB 17.75 17.40 -1.97%
GO/DB 17.10 17.82 4.21%
FO/DB -3.33 -8.01 -140.54%
Financial Performance: Refinery BU (Company)
30
3Q2013 4Q2013 4Q2012
THB Million $/BBL THB Million $/BBL THB Million $/BBL
Market GRM 1,380 4.72 1,429 4.82 2,558 10.66
GRM Hedging 230 0.78 353 1.19 288 1.20
Inventory Gain/Loss 926 3.17 622 2.10 (643) (2.68)
Total GRM 2,535 8.67 2,404 8.10 2,203 9.18
Other Income 21 0.07 24 0.08 31 0.13
Insurance Claim - - - - 310 1.29
FX Forward Contract (51) (0.17) (418) (1.41) 119 0.50
Operating Expenses (730) (2.49) (856) (2.88) (1,081) (4.50)
EBITDA 1,776 6.07 1,154 3.89 1,582 6.59
Key factors:
Crude Run (KBD) 100.61 101.17 84.64
B100 Total sales volume increased from 142 million litre in FY2012 to 166 million litre (+17%)
Inventory Gain increased from THB 16 million in FY2012 to THB 160 million in FY2013
Financial Performance: Biodiesel Business
31
B100 Price (Baht per litre)
Source: www.eppo.co.th
FY2012 FY2013 %
Revenue 4,443 4,401 -1%
Gross profit 159 308 93%
EBITDA 184 345 88%
Net Profit 101 260 157%
Utilization rate 87% 95%
Unit: THB Million
20
25
30
35
40
Financial Performance: Biodiesel Business
32
3Q2013 4Q2013 4Q2012 QoQ(%) YoY (%)
Revenue 1,020 1,263 952 24% 33%
Gross profit 61 119 (10) 94% N/A
EBITDA 68 119 18 75% 572%
Net Profit 48 98 (3) 105% N/A
Utilization rate 93% 98% 93%
Unit: THB Million
Financial Performance: Marketing BU (Company)
33
FY2012 FY2013
THB Million Baht/L THB Million Baht/L
Net Retail Margin 2,326 0.87 2,155 0.73
Net Industrial Margin 647 0.34 476 0.23
Total MKM 2,973 0.65 2,632 0.53
Other Income 742 0.16 929 0.19
Operating Expenses (1,970) (0.43) (2,205) (0.44)
EBITDA 1,744 0.38 1,355 0.27
Sales Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
- Retail 46.04 223.24 50.58 244.58
- Industrial 32.48 157.49 35.67 172.51
Total Sales Volume 78.52 380.72 86.25 417.09
380.72
417.09
FY2012 FY2013
Marketing Sales Volume
+10% YoY
Financial Performance: Marketing BU (Company)
34
3Q2013 4Q2013 4Q2012
THB Million Baht/L THB Million Baht/L THB Million Baht/L
Net Retail Margin 550 0.76 533 0.71 643 0.91
Net Industrial Margin 97 0.20 101 0.19 149 0.30
Total MKM 647 0.53 633 0.49 791 0.66
Other Income 201 0.16 231 0.18 196 0.16
Operating Expenses (508) (0.42) (710) (0.55) (681) (0.57)
EBITDA 340 0.28 154 0.12 307 0.26
Sales Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
- Retail 49.54 241.54 51.53 251.24 48.26 235.32
- Industrial 33.61 163.88 37.03 180.56 33.51 163.37
Total Sales Volume 83.15 405.42 88.56 431.80 81.77 398.68
Financial Performance: Solar Business
35
Solar Power Plant 2 phases:
Phase 1: Bang Pa-In, Ayutthaya started COD on July 16, 2012
Phase 2: Bamnet Narong, Chaiyaphum started COD on March 6, 2013
Phase 2: Bang Pa Han, Ayutthaya started COD on April 5, 2013
Revenue: Phase 1 (38 MW) & Phase 2 (32 MW)
Electricity Generation
FY2012 FY2013 %
Revenue 378 1,463 287%
Gross profit 255 1,108 335%
Other income 74* 12 -84%
Operating Expense (2) (8) 212%
EBITDA 422 1,396 231%
FY2012 FY2013
Target Actual Target Actual
Phase 1 (38 MW) 33.30 32.97 68.05 66.88
Phase 2 (32 MW) - - 56.91 59.83
Total 33.30 32.97 124.96 126.71
Unit: THB Million
Unit: MM kWh
378 778
684
FY2012 FY2013
Phase 1
Phase 2
1,463
* Recognized Insurance Compensation of Bath 73 Million in 2012
Unit: THB Million
Financial Performance: Solar Business
36
Phase 1 (38 MW) & Phase 2 (32 MW)
3Q2013 4Q2013 QoQ(%)
Revenue 381 431 12%
Gross profit 280 333 16%
Other income 12 9 -33%
Operating Expense (1) (6) 91%
EBITDA 372 415 10%
Electricity Generation Phase 1 + 2
3Q2013 4Q2013 QoQ(%)
Target 31.60 33.67
Actual 34.08 36.88 8%
Unit: THB Million
Unit: MM kWh
1.05
1.65 1.25 1.35
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Dividend Payment
37
Dividend Payout DPS (THB/Share)
Dividend Policy: ≥ 30 percent of net profit of consolidated financial statements
Dividend Payment (THB per Share)
THB/Share 44% 39% 40% 40%
• World Oil Situation
• 4Q2013 and FY2013 Review
• Financial Performance
• 2014 Overview
AGENDA
Refinery 66%
Marketing
15%
Solar 15%
Biofuel 4%
2014 Company Overview
FY2013
Consolidated EBITDA (Unit: THB million)
9,348 Refinery
55%
Marketing 20%
Solar 22%
Biofuel 3%
>10,000
FY2014 Target
TAM in Q2
Crude run plan 90 - 94 KBD
Solar Phase 1,2 - fully operate
Solar Phase 3 - start COD Q2
39
Target Sales Volume Growth 4%
Biodiesel Business
AVG Daily Production Rate (%) 95% 97%
Ethanol Business
Utilization rate (%) 62% 84%
2014 Company Overview
40
Refinery Business
Marketing Business
Solar Power Business
Biofuel Business
MK sales volume (ML/MO) 417.09 435
Net Marketing Margin (Baht/litre) 0.53 0.64
Crude Run (KBD) 99.34 90-94
GRM ($/BBL) 7.53 7.0
Electricity Generation (MM kWh) 126.71 212
FY2013 FY2014 (Target)
Investment Plan
41
(Unit : THB Million) Total FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
Refinery Business:
Normal CAPEX 8,750 1,900 1,650 1,950 1,200 2,050
New CDU 400 400 - - - -
3E Project 7,000 280 1,550 1,890 2,460 820
Marketing Business:
Normal CAPEX 3,950 750 800 800 800 800
Network Expansion 4,300 700 900 900 900 900
Solar Power Plant: Phase 3 (48 MW) 2,550 2,550 - - - -
Biodiesel Plant #2 1,400 840 560 - - -
Total 28,350 7,420 5,460 5,540 5,360 4,570
BCP Project Timeline
42 Note: All information are presented based on the latest data available
FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2018 FY2017
Replacing new CDU (100KBD)
Completion of New Co-Generation
Completion of Debottlenecking
New CCR Completion
Upgrading Project (3E)
Ref
ine
ry
Completion of 118 MW of Solar Power Plants
Sola
r P
ow
er
B
iod
iese
l
COD of Biodiesel Plant #2 - 0.45 ML/ day of Biodiesel Production capacity
2014 Refinery Plan
43
1. New CDU: 80 100 KBD
2. Co-Gen : Co-Generation Power Plant (10-20 MW)
3. Debottlenecking : HCU, VDU, and KTU for the higher level of crude run
4. New CCR : Continuous Catalyst Regeneration Unit
Detail:
Turnaround Maintenance ≈46 Days
And Changing of New CDU
3E: Efficiency, Energy and Environment Improvement Project
Status Update:
• EIA Approved • Under Basic design stage
≈90-94 KBD Average Crude Run for the year
Level of crude run --> 120+ KBD
Enhancing GRM ≈ 1-2 $/bbl
Cost and Energy saving
Lower emission
Investment Cost:
7,000 THB Million
Construction Time Frame:
2014-2018
Project
Efficiency, Energy and Environment
2014 Retail Marketing Plan
Thruput Per Station
Network Expansion
Network Rebranding
Extending Non-oil Business
Marketing Strategies
2014 Retail Marketing Plan
CAPEX for Network Expansion and Rebranding:
≈1,200 THB Million/Year
45
Expand through strategic locations with high sales volume, industrial estate area, and high potential area in upcountry.
Refurbishing service stations to be more lively, standardize and appealing to customers.
Solid Network Network Expansion
Network Rebranding
+50 more service stations
Service Station with
678 720
102 150
Actual FY 2013 Target 2014
Service Station 1,074 1,124
Standard 457 472
Co-Operative 617 652
Target 2014
Gasohol Club 1,000,0000
Diesel Club 500,000
Extending Non-oil Business
46
Supporting Businesses (Non-Oil Businesses)
Actual FY 2013 Target 2014
Inthanin 296 400
BigC Mini 62 150
Variety of retail businesses within the service station and attracting more customers via BigC mini, a strategic partner with BIGC
Customer Relationship Program (CRM)
Increase customers based and growing with a satisfy utilization rate per card.
2014 Retail Marketing Plan
New business opportunities under study: franchise food business.
Unit: Branches
Unit: Members
“Reach 1,500,000 members in FY2014”
Solar Power Plant Phase 3 (48 MW PPA)
Phase 1: (38 MW PPA) Location: Ayudhaya
Phase 3: (48 MW PPA) Location: Buriram Nakhon Ratchasima Chaiyaphum Prachin Buri
Phase 2: (32 MW PPA) Location: Chaiyaphum Ayudhaya
PLANT PPA (MW) COD PLAN
Prakhonchai, Buriram 8 1 Apr 2014
Nong Ki, Buriram 8 1 Apr 2014
Dan Khun Thot, Nakornratchasima
8 1 Apr 2014
Hua-Ta-Lay, Chaiyaphum 8 1 Jun 2014
Kabin Buri, Prachinburi 16 1 Jul 2014
Project Investment: 4,500 THB Million
Target EBITDA: 1,200 THB Million per Year
EPC contractor :
• Solartron PCL and CTIEC Consortium
• Gunkul Engineering PCL and Trina Solar
Consortium
Phase 3:
47
Project Progress: Prakhonchai, Buriram (8 MW PPA)
48
Project Progress: 97.87%
COD plan: 1 Apr 2014
MAP
Project Progress: Nong Ki, Buriram (8 MW PPA)
49
Project Progress: 97.47%
COD plan: 1 Apr 2014
MAP
Project Progress: Dan Khun Thot, Nakornratchasima (8 MW PPA)
50
Project Progress: 95.68%
COD plan: 1 Apr 2014
MAP
Project Progress: Hua-Ta-Lay, Chaiyaphum (8 MW PPA)
51
Project Progress: 88.65%
COD plan: 1 Jun 2014
MAP
Project Progress: Kabin Buri, Prachinburi (16 MW PPA)
52
Project Progress: 73.43%
COD plan: 1 Jul 2014
MAP
Biodiesel Plant #2
Investment Cost: ≈1,400 THB Million EBITDA: ≈380 THB Million per year
Purpose
To capture an opportunity regarding government policy of Diesel - B7 grade in 2014
Detail
• 450,000 litre per day expansion which resulted in the total production capacity of 810,000 litre per day
• PFAD unit production capacity of 55,000 litre per day
53
New Business
54
Investment of THB 5,000++ Million per year
New Business
55
Appendix
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
56
Unit: THB Million 3Q2013 4Q2013 4Q2012 QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
Sales Revenue 46,062 48,064 43,952 4% 9%
EBITDA 2,564 1,810 2,037 -29% -11%
Depreciation and Amortization -705 -712 -710 -1% -0.30%
Gain (loss) on foreign exchange 95 -111 43 -217% -358%
Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets
-3 54 239 N/A -77%
Financial Cost -299 -255 -274 15% 7%
Pre-tax Profit 1,652 786 1,336 -52% -41%
Income Tax Expense -278 -68 -190 76% 64%
Net Profit* 1,359 688 1,147 -49% -40%
EPS (Baht/Share) 0.99 0.50 0.83
*Net Profit attributable to owners of the company
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
57
Unit: THB Million FY2012 FY2013 ∆%
Sales Revenue 165,246 186,514 13%
EBITDA 7,770 9,348 20%
Depreciation and Amortization (2,454) (2,777) -13%
Gain (loss) on foreign exchange 346 132 -62%
Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets
295 24 -92%
Financial Cost (940) (1,064) -13%
Pre-tax Profit 5,017 5,664 13%
Income Tax Expense (715) (932) -30%
Net Profit* 4,273 4,653 9%
EPS (Baht/Share) 3.10 3.38
*Net Profit attributable to owners of the company
Profit and Loss (Company)
58
Unit: THB Million FY2012 FY2013 YoY (%)
Sales Revenue 162,623 183,286 13%
EBITDA 7,570 8,314 10%
- Refinery Business 5,403 6,217 15%
- Marketing Business 1,744 1,355 -22%
- Solar Power Plant Business 423 742 75%
Depreciation and Amortization (2,394) (2,594) -8%
Gain (loss) on foreign exchange 346 132 -62%
Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets
295 24 -92%
Financial Cost (910) (989) -9%
Pre-tax Profit 4,906 4,887 -0.39%
Income Tax Expense (706) (915) -30%
Net Profit 4,200 3,972 -5%
EPS (Baht/Share) 2.88 3.05
Profit and Loss (Company)
59
Unit: THB Million 3Q2013 4Q2013 4Q2012 QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
Sales Revenue 45,263
47,220 43,337 4% 9%
EBITDA 2,290 1,500 2,056 -34% -27%
- Refinery Business 1,776 1,154 1,582 -35% -27%
- Marketing Business 340 154 307 -55% -50%
- Solar Power Plant Business 175 192 167 10% 14%
Depreciation and Amortization (649) (657) (694) -1% 5%
Gain (loss) on foreign exchange 95 (111) 43 -217% -359%
Net reversal of allowance for loss from impairment of assets
(3) 54 239 N/A -78%
Financial Cost (273) (230) (268) 16% 14%
Pre-tax Profit 1,460 555 1,377 -62% -60%
Income Tax Expense (274) (72) (198) 74% 63%
Net Profit 1,186 483 1,180 -59% -59%
EPS (Baht/Share) 0.86 0.35 0.86
Financial Ratio (Consolidated)
60
Q42012 Q32013 Q42013 FY2012 FY2013
Profitability Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin 4.67% 5.57% 3.77% 4.70% 5.01% 0.31%
Profit Margin 2.61% 2.98% 1.49% 2.60% 2.54% -0.07%
Return on Equity (ROE) 1/ 13.81% 15.72% 13.92% 13.81% 13.92% 0.11%
Return on Assets (ROA) 8.99% 10.68% 9.39% 8.99% 9.39% 0.40%
31 Dec 12 31 Dec 13 ∆
Liquidity Ratios (times)
Current Ratio 1.93 2.24 0.31
Quick Ratio 0.93 1.19 0.26
Financial Policy Ratios (times)
DSCR2/ 5.07 4.68 2/ -0.39
Interest bearing debt to Equity1/ 0.59 0.60 0.01
Net Interest bearing debt to Equity1/ 0.34 0.39 0.05
1/ Total equity attributable to owners of the Company
2/ DSCR in 2013 was excluded prepayment loan of Baht 5,500 million
Note: We have changed the calculation in ROE, ROA, and DSCR from those in Annual Report of 2012.
− We have defined our “return” used in the formula of ROA and ROE according to the SET Manual Guides – Financial Ratios section.
− We have changed our numerator for DSCR from “Adjusted EBITDA” to be “EBITDA”.
(note: Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA that excludes impact from inventory gain or loss.)
− ROE, ROA are annualized figures.
Non-OPEC Oil Supply
61
Total Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by another 1.7 MBD in 2014.
Non-OPEC oil supply mainly driven by the shale oil revolution in the United States and oil sands output from Canada.
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
62
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among alternative methodologies that produce differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and
should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the
matters contained herein.
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www.bangchak.co.th
click Investor Relations
Thank you
63
Q&A