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The beef cattle and beef industry development in China
Dr. Xiangdong Hu
Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Hanoi, Vietnam, Aug. 10, 2017
Contents
Ø Introduction of the beef cattle industry
Ø The beef cattle situation based on survey data
Ø The prospect for the beef industry
Contents
Ø Introduction for the overall beef cattle industry
Ø The beef cattle situation based on survey data
Ø The prospect for the beef industry
1. Beef production increased from 269,000 tons in 1980 to 7,001,000 tons in 2015. 2. Cattle is changing the role from draft cattle to beef cattle.
269
7.001
- 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000
1980
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
1999
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Beef production from 1980-2015 (1000 tons)
Source:Na+onalBureauofSta+s+csofChina
The inventory and slaughter of cattle from 2006 to 2015 (million tons)
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total cattle Slaughter Dairy cows Beef cattle Source:Na+onalBureauofSta+s+csofChina
The different scale beef cattle farm slaughter percentage, the small scale quit out and large scale increased dramatically.
8,8
11,0
7,3
10,2
3,1 3,8
2,2 3,5
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0
2009
2011
2013
2015
2010
2012
2014
2009
2011
2013
2015
2010
2012
2014
2009
2011
2013
2015
2010
2012
2014
1-9 heads 10-49 heads 50-99 heads 100-499 heads 500-999 heads 1000 heads +
Percentage (%)
Source:MOA
The resources of dairy herd is a growing source for beef production, providing approx. 6 million slaughter animals in 2016.
2.280
3.563
- 500
1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
1991
19
92
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
2015
20
16
Finishing dairy cows (1,000 heads) Finishing male dairy calves (1,000 heads) Source:MOAandes+ma+on
Beef market was pretty good. There was few fluctuation, and the beef price kept the increase trend.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pork Chicken Beef Mutton
CNY/kg
After 2011, the beef import turn to the rapid rising channel. Export was main for the Hongkong and Macao.
580.049
-
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Import Export
tons
Source:Na+onalBureauofSta+s+csofChina
There are more and more countries to export beef to China.
Before Brazil Uruguay Australia
Year of 2016 Brazil Uruguay Australia New Zealand Namibia Hungary Mongolia America
The port in Henan province accepted the import live cattle from Australia for slaughtering; The new port of Shidao in Shandong province is another one.
US beef imports in China
• US beef came back China’s market after 20th Jun. 2017; it prohibited to import
since 2003.
• The first US beef imported from Shanghai, which sold via e-commercial. The
prices of filet steak and rib eye were 33.89USD/300g and 38.35USD/400g, which
were higher than Australian and South American.
• Until now, it was few US beef coming into China; China has very strict regulation
for the imported beef quality, such as no ractopamine usage.
Beef smuggling still existed, and its players and channels are expanding
• Quantity: According to estimation, beef smuggling in China accounts for 10% of
domestic beef consumption.
• Product type: Beef products, live cattle(mainly from South-east countries).
• Channel: Mainly distributed in some provinces such as Guangdong, Hunan,
Shanghai, Guangxi, Yunnan, etc
Per-capita beef consumption below 1 kg in rural areas and 2.5 kg in urban areas(at home consumption). The average consumption 5-6 kg. Pork (kg per capita) Beef(kg per capita) Mutton(kg per capita) Poultry(kg per capita)
Year Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban 2000 13.3 16.7 0.5 2.0 0.6 1.4 2.8 5.4 2001 13.4 16.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 1.3 2.9 5.3 2002 13.7 20.3 0.5 1.9 0.7 1.1 2.9 9.2 2003 13.8 20.4 0.5 2.0 0.8 1.3 3.2 9.3 2004 13.5 19.2 0.5 2.3 0.8 1.4 3.1 6.4 2005 15.6 20.2 0.6 2.3 0.8 1.4 3.7 9.0 2006 15.5 20.0 0.7 2.4 0.9 1.4 3.5 8.3 2007 13.4 18.2 0.7 2.6 0.8 1.3 3.9 9.7 2008 12.7 19.3 0.6 2.2 0.7 1.2 4.4 8.0 2009 14.0 20.5 0.6 2.4 0.8 1.3 4.3 10.5 2010 14.4 20.7 0.6 2.5 0.8 1.3 4.2 10.2 2011 14.4 20.6 1.0 2.8 0.9 1.7 4.5 10.6 2012 14.4 21.2 1.0 2.5 0.9 1.2 4.5 10.8 2013 19.1 20.4 0.8 2.2 0.7 1.1 6.2 8.1 2014 19.2 20.8 0.8 2.2 0.7 1.2 6.7 9.1 2015 19.5 20.7 0.8 2.4 0.9 1.5 7.1 9.4
Source:Na+onalBureauofSta+s+csofChina
Beef consumption is still potential increase following as the income increase and urbanization.
Contents
Ø Introduction for the overall beef cattle industry
Ø The beef cattle situation based on survey data
Ø The prospect for the beef industry
Samples for the beef cattle farms
• Three levels for samples:
1. 250 villages monthly data since 2008
2. 750 beef cattle farms monthly data since 2008
3. 1499-1513 beef cattle feedlots (50 heads +) since 2015.
1. Machinery in agriculture sector 2. Farmer leave rural area especially for those poverty and mountainous areas where are main beef cattle cultivation regions.
25,2 23,9 22,3 20,5 19,4 18,8 18,6
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
number beef cattle farms/total farms (%)
Source:surveydata
The beef cattle inventory, yearly slaughter and breeding beef cattle fall decline in survey villages. Existing beef cattle farms never expand the scale so many to make up quitting farms.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Monthly inventory (heads) Yearly slaughter (heads) Beef breeding cattle (heads)
Source:surveydata
The scaled beef cattle farms keep relatively stable. (1) Facilities investment (2) feed base
159
67
3 11
0
50
100
150
200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
2015 2016 2017
Inventory breeding beef cattle New born calves Slaughter Source:surveydata
The average size in scaled farms from 2015 to 2017 (heads)
The cost and revenue in the finishing beef cattle farms
Jun.-17 May- 17 Jun.-16 Live weight (kg) 498.2 507.3 535.6 Price (USD/kg) 3.5 3.9 3.8 Calf weight (kg) 309.0 297.5 318.0 Price (USD/kg) 3.8 4.4 4.4 Revenue of 450Kg beef cattle (USD/head) 1570.7 1756.1 1710.3 Cost of 450Kg beef cattle(USD/head) 1399.8 1532.1 1512.6 Profit for 450 Kg beef cattle(USD/head) 171.0 224.0 197.7 Profit per day (USD/head) 1.02 1.18 0.95 Beef cattle for slaughtering (heads) 1466 510 724 Farms selling the cattle 66 53 54 Total Farms 750 750 750
1059,0 1168,0 1150,9
293,5 310,3 310,2 47,3 53,9 51,5
0,0
500,0
1000,0
1500,0
Jun.-17 May-17 Jun.-17
Calf cost Feed cost Other cost USD/head
Source:surveydata
Jun.-17 May-17 Jun.-17
Calf live weight (kg) 281 275.2 343.8
Price (USD/kg) 4.2 4.0 3.4
Revenue of 300Kg calf (USD/head) 1270.9 1212.2 1025.2
Cost of 300Kg calf (USD/head) 773.0 787.9 751.1
Profit for 300Kg calf (USD/head) 497.9 424.3 274.1
Profit per day (USD/head) 1.4 1.2 0.8
Calf for selling (head) 107 88 317
Farms selling the cattle 27 24 21
Total Farms 750 750 750
The cost and revenue of the cow-calf farms
Source:surveydata
Contents
Ø Introduction for the overall beef cattle industry
Ø The beef cattle situation based on survey data
Ø The prospect for the beef industry
The overall beef supply-demand
• The amount of cattle inventory will remain stable with a little decrease. The
amount of breeding cattle inventory will keep stable under the government
support.
• The cattle slaughter weight will continue to rise.
• The beef price will stay high level.
• the imports of beef production will increase, the proportion of the smuggling
market is expected to decrease with cracking down on smuggling.
Some influence factors with high production cost
• Limited factors for the development beef cattle: Land, capital and environment
protection.
① Loan guarantees
② Protection of prime farmland
③ The MOA makes the pollution treatment of livestock and poultry as one of
the key tasks in the 13th five-year plan.
Opportunities for the beef industry
• In 2017, the pilots’ area for Grain crops to forage grass will be expanded to
670,000 ha; it will promote the development of grass planting and cattle breeding
and the combination of grass planting and cattle breeding.
• Grass animal husbandry development plan will make a promotion of increasing
efficiency in beef industry.
• Poverty alleviation plan will encourage some poor areas to grow grass, raise beef
cattle and sheep.
Opportunities for the beef industry
• The huge quantity of by-product of crops and by-products of agricultural products
processing industry: Pollution or feed resources for cattle?
• Decision makers enable the beef industry to make a contribution to sustainable
agricultural development.
• Huge market: Beef demand will keep increase, and there are more and more
people to consume the beef .
Knowledge is our business
Any Questions? Xiangdong Hu
Office Tel.:+86-010-82106717
Mobile:+86-0-13811614436
E-mail: [email protected]