The climate challengeThe climate challenge

Climate mecanismsClimate mecanisms

The greenhouse effectThe greenhouse effectRayonnement

solaire

50%

20%

100% 26%

4%

Conduction, Evaporation

Infrarouge

H2O

CO2 , CH4, N20

+15°C+15°C390 Wm-2

Piégeage 153 Wm-2

The greenhouse effectThe greenhouse effect

A natural phenomenonA natural phenomenon Makes life on Earth possibleMakes life on Earth possible

Higher temperature: liquid water is availableHigher temperature: liquid water is available Brings inertia to the systemBrings inertia to the system

Main gases responsible:Main gases responsible: Carbon dioxide (COCarbon dioxide (CO22)) Methane (CHMethane (CH44)) Nitrous oxide (NNitrous oxide (N22O)O) Water vapour (HWater vapour (H22O)O) ……

Direct link to the carbon cycleDirect link to the carbon cycle

The carbon cycleThe carbon cycle

The imbalance of the carbon The imbalance of the carbon cyclecycle

Vegetation / AtmosphereVegetation / Atmosphere Respiration : 60 Gt / yearRespiration : 60 Gt / year Photosynthesis : 62 Gt / yearPhotosynthesis : 62 Gt / year Net result = - 2 Gt / yearNet result = - 2 Gt / year

Oceans / AtmosphereOceans / Atmosphere In solution : 92 Gt / yearIn solution : 92 Gt / year Release : 90 Gt / yearRelease : 90 Gt / year Net result = - 2 Gt / yearNet result = - 2 Gt / year

Deforestation : +2 Gt / yearDeforestation : +2 Gt / year Burning of oil, coal, gas = +6 Gt / yearBurning of oil, coal, gas = +6 Gt / year In total :In total :

+8 Gt / year released by human activities +8 Gt / year released by human activities THIS IS TWO TIMES TOO MUCH!!THIS IS TWO TIMES TOO MUCH!!

The phenomenon of The phenomenon of warming, causes and warming, causes and

consequencesconsequences

Causes of global warming Causes of global warming

Since the beginning of Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution:the Industrial Revolution: COCO22 : + 31 % : + 31 % CHCH44 : + 150 % : + 150 % NN22O : + 15 %O : + 15 %

3 crucial « events »3 crucial « events » Industrial RevolutionIndustrial Revolution Post war boomPost war boom Globalisation of exchangesGlobalisation of exchanges

Causes of global warmingCauses of global warming Emitting sectors in France:Emitting sectors in France:

And globally :And globally :

The prospects for climate The prospects for climate changechange

The IPCC:The IPCC: Notes the state of affairs in research and Notes the state of affairs in research and

technologiestechnologies Publishes a report every 4 yearsPublishes a report every 4 years Works with scientific consensusWorks with scientific consensus Prudent in its positions by naturePrudent in its positions by nature

Yet they are not reassuring us…Yet they are not reassuring us…

The future evolution of the The future evolution of the climateclimate

Today: the highest Today: the highest concentration of concentration of COCO22 and CH and CH44 since since 400,000 years400,000 years

This is only the This is only the beginning … if do beginning … if do don’t do anythingdon’t do anything

The prospects for climate The prospects for climate changechange

No more doubts on the existence of future No more doubts on the existence of future climate disordersclimate disorders

Sudden and irreversible changesSudden and irreversible changes The facts confirm the most pessimistic The facts confirm the most pessimistic

forecastsforecasts

Yet retroactive changes are not even Yet retroactive changes are not even taken into account: melting of the taken into account: melting of the permafrost, destruction of the ice shelfs at permafrost, destruction of the ice shelfs at the poles …the poles …

What concrete What concrete consequences?consequences?

Central scenarios:Central scenarios: Between + 2°C et + 4°CBetween + 2°C et + 4°C

Highly probable scenarios:Highly probable scenarios: Between + 1,1°C et + 6,4°CBetween + 1,1°C et + 6,4°C

The facts confront us with the most The facts confront us with the most pessimistic scneariospessimistic scnearios

Concrete consequencesConcrete consequences With + 2°C :With + 2°C :

Decrease of agricultural yieldsDecrease of agricultural yields Risk of famine : + 200 million peopleRisk of famine : + 200 million people Lack of water : 1,8 billion peopleLack of water : 1,8 billion people Rising water levels: : 10 million peopleRising water levels: : 10 million people Expansion of zones with malaria : + 50 million peopleExpansion of zones with malaria : + 50 million people Extinction of 25 to 40% of all speciesExtinction of 25 to 40% of all species

With + 3°C :With + 3°C : - 30% of the yield of wheat in India- 30% of the yield of wheat in India Risk of famine : + 600 million peopleRisk of famine : + 600 million people Lack of water: 4 billion peopleLack of water: 4 billion people Rising water levels: 170 million peopleRising water levels: 170 million people Numerous islands erased from the globeNumerous islands erased from the globe

With + 4°C : With + 4°C : Collapse of agricultural yieldsCollapse of agricultural yields Expansion of the zones with malaria: + 400 million of Expansion of the zones with malaria: + 400 million of

peoplepeople Rising water levels:330 million peopleRising water levels:330 million people

Stop temperature rise at+ 2 Stop temperature rise at+ 2 °C°C

+ 2 °C : danger limit+ 2 °C : danger limit How do we do it?How do we do it?

Stabilise the temperatureStabilise the temperature Stabilise the concentrations of GHG’s Stabilise the concentrations of GHG’s

(450ppm)(450ppm) Bring emissions back to natural Bring emissions back to natural

« recycling » capacity« recycling » capacity Divide worldwide emissions by halfDivide worldwide emissions by half The factor 4 to garanty equal rights for allThe factor 4 to garanty equal rights for all

Maximum emission rights (TC/inhabitant) to divide world emissions by 2, with 6 billion people…

…or to divide by 3 with 9 billion people

Berger 2005

To stop at + 2 °CTo stop at + 2 °C

Emissions must decline before 2015Emissions must decline before 2015 Developed countries Developed countries (compared to 1990)(compared to 1990)

-25 à -40% in 2020-25 à -40% in 2020 -80 à -95% in 2050-80 à -95% in 2050

From 2020 on, developed countries From 2020 on, developed countries must deviate substantially from the must deviate substantially from the trajectory trajectory (except Africa)(except Africa)

World emissions : -50 à -85% en 2050World emissions : -50 à -85% en 2050

Climate policies of the Climate policies of the

dominant dominant PowersPowers

The general trendThe general trend Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and Subordinate adaptation to the rhythm and

needs of capitalneeds of capital Cost-risk analysis (example = Stern report)Cost-risk analysis (example = Stern report) Priority of technological solutionsPriority of technological solutions Creation of new markets Creation of new markets New developement cycle of capital : « green New developement cycle of capital : « green

capitalism  »capitalism  » Point to the responsability of emerging Point to the responsability of emerging

countriescountries Use climate menace to impose their neoliberal Use climate menace to impose their neoliberal

policiespolicies

The Kyoto protocolThe Kyoto protocol Some positive aspects :Some positive aspects :

« common but differentiated responsabilities »« common but differentiated responsabilities » Concrete targets and sanctionsConcrete targets and sanctions

BUT noumerous problemsBUT noumerous problems Insufficient targets: -5,2 % (reduced to -1,7%)Insufficient targets: -5,2 % (reduced to -1,7%) Emissions of maritime and air transport not taken Emissions of maritime and air transport not taken

into accountinto account Carbone sinks =Emission reductionsCarbone sinks =Emission reductions Possible delocalisation of the efforts (CDM,MOC…)Possible delocalisation of the efforts (CDM,MOC…) Emission rights and carbon market: a form of Emission rights and carbon market: a form of

privatisation of parts of the atmosphereprivatisation of parts of the atmosphere

Recent evolution of policies by Recent evolution of policies by the great powersthe great powers

Insufficient commitments:Insufficient commitments: -20% in 2020 for the EU-20% in 2020 for the EU Obama wants less than KyotoObama wants less than Kyoto

Ever more flexible mecanismsEver more flexible mecanisms Their role was limited with KyotoTheir role was limited with Kyoto New technologies integrated as clean technologies: carbon New technologies integrated as clean technologies: carbon

sequestration, nuclear, biofuels…sequestration, nuclear, biofuels… A specific market for the forests:REDDA specific market for the forests:REDD

Make the lower classes take the brunt of the Make the lower classes take the brunt of the effort (ex : Carbon Tax )effort (ex : Carbon Tax )

The answers to the climate and the economic The answers to the climate and the economic crisis are contradictory, inconsistent public crisis are contradictory, inconsistent public policies: cars, public transport…policies: cars, public transport…

In the face of a predicted In the face of a predicted failure, the menace of barbaric failure, the menace of barbaric

managementmanagement New OrleansNew Orleans Tuvalu, VanuatuTuvalu, Vanuatu The « Climate » report of the Pentagon:The « Climate » report of the Pentagon:« the numbers of deaths caused by wars, by « the numbers of deaths caused by wars, by

famine and by disease will decrease the famine and by disease will decrease the size of the population which will readapt to size of the population which will readapt to the carrying capacity ». the carrying capacity ». 

Source: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for the US Source: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for the US National SecurityNational Security, SCWARTZ & RANDALL, 2003 , SCWARTZ & RANDALL, 2003

A catastrophy can perhaps A catastrophy can perhaps be avoided be avoided (in part…)(in part…)

Energy savingsEnergy savings A policy of« small gestures » is not A policy of« small gestures » is not

sufficientsufficient Fight against attempts to make you feel Fight against attempts to make you feel

guiltyguilty An important part of what you buy, of An important part of what you buy, of

transportation … is unavoidabletransportation … is unavoidable Necessity of collective action to make Necessity of collective action to make

possible a lifestyle that saves energy and possible a lifestyle that saves energy and is low in carbon use is low in carbon use

Saving energySaving energy What possibilities?What possibilities?

Suppress useless productions Suppress useless productions Armement, the army…Armement, the army… Numerous manufacturing of chemicals, of fertilisers…Numerous manufacturing of chemicals, of fertilisers… AdvertisementsAdvertisements

Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency Rehabilitation of housingRehabilitation of housing Norms for electrical devicesNorms for electrical devices Norms of car engines…Norms of car engines…

Reorganisation of society (the most important Reorganisation of society (the most important source)source)

Ex. of transportation :Ex. of transportation : Urbanisation : working class expulsed far from the city centreUrbanisation : working class expulsed far from the city centre Problemes of freight : production « just in time », international Problemes of freight : production « just in time », international

division of labour according to the cost of labour division of labour according to the cost of labour

Renewable energiesRenewable energies Solar : an IMMENSE potentialSolar : an IMMENSE potential Its caracter limits its valorisation in a Its caracter limits its valorisation in a

capitalist system:capitalist system: Low density in energyLow density in energy Difficult to appropriate Difficult to appropriate

Necessity of a new orientation of research Necessity of a new orientation of research Necessity of making available and of Necessity of making available and of

large distribution of technologies: not only large distribution of technologies: not only for those who can pay …for those who can pay …

EnR 8,1%

Budgets R&D Energie Budgets R&D Energie (AIE)(AIE)

Researhc to be urgently

redirected!

Our anticapitalist Our anticapitalist projectproject

Necessity of an anticapitalist Necessity of an anticapitalist strategystrategy

The market is powerless:The market is powerless: A change which is too radicalA change which is too radical Time is too shortTime is too short Any change needs the « agreement of the citizens » Any change needs the « agreement of the citizens »

Capitalism confronts social forces with a dilemmaCapitalism confronts social forces with a dilemma « To save nature or to increase the conditions of « To save nature or to increase the conditions of

exploitation of the workers »exploitation of the workers » Increase the costs of the exploitation of nature Increase the costs of the exploitation of nature

versus a lowering of the cost of the work forceversus a lowering of the cost of the work force Our ecosocialist project :Our ecosocialist project :

Planning based at the same time on the Planning based at the same time on the democratically determined needs and taking into democratically determined needs and taking into account the ecological problemsaccount the ecological problems

Transitional method linked to Transitional method linked to an emergency program an emergency program

A pedagocial role:A pedagocial role: Demonstrate that it is possibleDemonstrate that it is possible Confront capitalism with its contradictionsConfront capitalism with its contradictions

Link the social and the ecological Link the social and the ecological dimensiondimension The crises are fed by the same mecanisms: The crises are fed by the same mecanisms:

competition, search for profits, dictatorship of competition, search for profits, dictatorship of the markets …the markets …

Put the fulfillment of social needs and the Put the fulfillment of social needs and the respect of ecological equilibria at the centre of respect of ecological equilibria at the centre of our program and our strugglesour program and our struggles

An emergency planAn emergency planExamples of sectorial demands Examples of sectorial demands

Suppression of unnecessary and harmful industriesSuppression of unnecessary and harmful industries The building sector :The building sector :

Public service of housing and renovationPublic service of housing and renovation Transportation of commodities:Transportation of commodities:

Ban on long distance transport by roadBan on long distance transport by road Public policy for the development of infrastructure for rail transportPublic policy for the development of infrastructure for rail transport

Transportation of people:Transportation of people: Free public transportFree public transport Development of the possibilities for public transport infrastructureDevelopment of the possibilities for public transport infrastructure Stop the development of suburbiaStop the development of suburbia « reintroduction » of the working classes in the city centres« reintroduction » of the working classes in the city centres

The energy sector:The energy sector: For a public service of the whole of the energy sectorFor a public service of the whole of the energy sector Nationalisation of the big companies in the sectorNationalisation of the big companies in the sector Decentralisation of the means of production of energyDecentralisation of the means of production of energy … … in order to allow control by users and by employeesin order to allow control by users and by employees

Agriculture : food souvereignty and organic/ecological farmingAgriculture : food souvereignty and organic/ecological farming Drastic reduction of nitrogen containing fertilizersDrastic reduction of nitrogen containing fertilizers A break with the productivist logic in the farming worldA break with the productivist logic in the farming world

An emergency planAn emergency planProfound transformationsProfound transformations

Reorganisation and transformation of labourReorganisation and transformation of labour People’s control on productionPeople’s control on production Get out of the contradiction Get out of the contradiction

consumer/worker:consumer/worker: Reduction of working hours must be a central Reduction of working hours must be a central

axis of our program axis of our program Indispensible industrial reconversions :Indispensible industrial reconversions :

Garanty employment, contracts, wages and work Garanty employment, contracts, wages and work collectives collectives

This must be realised by the workers themselvesThis must be realised by the workers themselves