NOAA Image Gallery

DPG – AKE, Berlin, 8 March 2005

The Climate Problem: Diagnosis, Prognosis,

and Therapy

John Schellnhuber

PART I: THE DIAGNOSIS

One view of climate change

“I believe that climate change is the most important long-term issue we face as a global community. It is an issue that will require sustained action over the coming decades. A sound understanding of the science must be the basis for this action.”

Tony Blair, UK Prime Minister3 Nov 2004

….and another

“Much of the debate over global warming is predicated on fear, rather than science. I called the threat of catastrophic global warming the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people”

James M. Inhofe, US Senator & Chairman of Environment and Public Works Committee

4 Jan 2005

The Greenhouse Effect

Human Impact on Atmosphere

Images from WDCP/IPCC

Vostok Ice Core – the record of the last 420,000 years

Temperature Since 850 AD

Science, 10 February 2005

Modelled and Observed Temperature Rise Since 1860

Source: IPCC

Extreme Events

2003 European Heatwave

“Very likely (confidence level > 90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude”

Stott et al., Nature, 2004

Stott et al., 2004

Distribution ofDistribution ofSwiss Swiss MonthlyMonthly andand

SeasonalSeasonal TemperaturesTemperatures18641864--20032003

Source: Schär et al. 2004

Arctic Warming

Arctic warming twice as fast as rest of world according to Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Alaska• Winter warming of 2-3°C in past

30 years• 2003 - greatest recorded summer

sea-ice melt• Sea-ice retreat exposes coasts to

erosion• Melting permafrost threatens

built infrastructure Science

Sea Ice• 7.4% decrease in past 25 yrs• Minimum in Sep 2002• Almost ice-free by 2100

Glacial Retreat

Pasterze Glacier, Austria, 1875 (left), 2004 (right)

Graphics from Dyurgerov & Meier, PNAS, 2000

Cumulative departures of globally averaged annual glacier mass balances relative to 1961–1990 baseline

Phenology“Although we are only at an early stage of the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.” Walther et al., Nature, 2002.

Vegetation shift, S. Switzerland(from Walther et al., 2002)

• Northward shift 22 out of 35 species of non-migratory European butterfly

(Parmesan et al., Nature 1999)

• Spring events in Europe advanced by 6 days, autumn delayed by ~5 days

(Menzel & Fabian, Nature, 1999)

• Recent biological trends match climate change predictions

(Parmesan & Yohe, Nature, 2003)

PART II: THE PROGNOSIS

The Planet’s Achilles Heels

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Greenland Ice Sheet

0o 2.5o E

50o N

52.5o N

London

The coastline of south-eastern UK,

assuming 6m of sea level rise in the wake of Greenland Ice Sheet melting

EuropeEurope’’ssFree Free HeatingHeating

SystemSystem

Modes of theNorth Atlantic Thermohaline

Circulation

“Gulf-Stream”

A Global Inventory of Natural Gas Hydrate Occurrence

USGS, 2001. More information: http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/globalhydrate/

Hadley Centre Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Broadleaf tree cover (gridbox fraction)

in coupled climate-carbon cycle

simulation

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Will Greenhouse Green the Sahara?

(N. Petit-Maire, 1990)

deMenocal et al., 2000deMenocal et al., 2000

Changes in Potential Vegetation Cover in the Sahara

Transient CO2 scenario (1%, 1000 ppm)

Years of Simulation[1800] [2000]

Veg

eta

tio

n

fract

ion

Claussen et al., 2003Claussen et al., 2003

Thanks to Joseph M. ProsperoRSMAS, Univ. of MiamiDust Storm - Bodele Depression, Chad

The location of dry lakes in the BodeleDepression

Anthropogenic Global Warming

Re-Greening of Sahara

Amazon Forest Die-Back

Lifestyle & Recreation Change

Global Change Synergism

(+)

(+)

(+)

(+)

(+)

(-)

Reduced Dust Export

Regional Climate Change

Regional Climate Change

Additional GHG Emissions

Land Surface Disturbance

Additional Carbon Release

Arabian Sea

Image: WJ Schmitz, WHOI

Southwesterly Summer Monsoon

Northeasterly Winter Monsoon

Reduced-form model of the Indian monsoon

• Energy balance:

• Water vapour balance:

• Soil moisture balance:

( ) TLWsysSa

ss

H

p AFAFECLt

Tchdzt

ca +−−+−=∂∂

+∂∂

∫ 1)(0

θρ

q

HACEdz

tqa +−=∂∂

∫0 ρ

τ21

2

12 wwff

tw −

=∂∂

,21

1

1

τww

fREP

tw −

−−−

=∂∂

Reduced-form model of the Indian monsoon

• Condensation, for instance, is described as:

• Advection of heat is given by:

• where

∫== tH

p

qdzNPC0ρ

τ

( ) ( )∑ ∫ ∫ ⎥⎦⎤

⎢⎣⎡ +=

i

h H

h aimiimp

Tm t

m

dzTudzTuSLc

A0

1,

0, ρθρθ

( ) ( ) ( )iat

io

im TTLRTf

Hgppf

u −∆

=∇= 200

00

0

0, 2

sinsinρ

αρα

∫ ∫=m t

m

h H

himim dzudzu0

1,

0, ρρ

Seasonal distribution of monsoon rainfall

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11P

[mm

/d]

Planetary albedo influences monsoon

0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.60

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Planetary Albedo [1]

Pre

cipi

tatio

n [m

m/d

ay]

B1

B2

stable solutionunstable solution

CO2 concentration influences monsoon

200 400 600 800 1000 12000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

CO2 Concentration [ppm]

Pre

cipi

tatio

n [m

m/d

ay]

P1

P2

stable solutionunstable solution

Worst Case Scenario for Monsoon Development

Roller-Coaster Trajectory

Switch Watch

Sate

llite

imag

e fr

om w

ww.la

as.f

r/D

ISCO

/ D

ISCO

-Dia

g.ht

ml

Supe

rcom

pute

r ph

oto

cour

tesy

of

Paci

fic

Nor

thwe

st N

atio

nal L

abor

ator

y

Earth Observation Earth System Modelling

Recent Extreme Weather Events

in Europe

2002 Floods

2003 Heatwave

June 2003

July 1994

August 2002

July 1997

August 1961

June 1975

July 1986

June 1996

a

July 1997

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

35o N

35o N

35o N

35o N

35o N

35o N

35o N

35o N

40oW 20oW 0o 40oE 40oW 20oW 0o20oE 20oE 40oE

10-14 -6-10 62-2 -14 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10

Meridional wind [m/s] at 500 mb

a

55o N

55o N

55o N

55o N

55o N

55o N

55o N

55o N

Petukhov, Rahmstorf, Schellnhuber & Oesterle (2004): submitted to NatureFig.1

b

ca

d

Fig.6

PART III: THE THERAPY

Lomborg Cost Benefit Approach

Forget climate change, that's the least of our worries, say Nobel winnersEconomists brought together by controversial scientist say money would be better spent on Aids, water and free tradeJohn Vidal, environment editorThursday October 21, 2004The Guardianwww.guardian.co.uk

For every complex problem there is a simple solution

…which is wrong!(unknown physicist)

Whole-Systems Approach

Costs & Benefits

Demand

Costs & Benefits

Natural &ManagedEcoystems

IndustrialMetabolism

Demand

EmissionsRadiative Forcing

Emissions

AtmosphericComposition

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

RisksRisk

ClimateDynamics

Perceptions

Human Behaviour

& Well-Being

StrategicDecisionMaking

For every complex problem there is a complex solution

…which is useless!Paul Valéry

Conclusion: Intermediate Complexity (IC) Approach

Strategic options appraisal based on three IC cornerstones:

1. “King’s Equation” (Integration)

2. Kaya Identity (Mitigation)

3. “Schellnhuber Identity” (Adaptation)

Number of closures per annum of the Thames barrier to protect London from flooding. [Source: DEFRA, U.K.]

9 JANUARY 2004 VOL 303 SCIENCE

“King’s Equation”

d = V · ∆c

Impacts/Damages

Vulnerability Operator

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Perception (ignore, deplore,

compensate)

Adaptation (e.g. vulnerability reduction)

Mitigation (e.g. confinement of

climate excursion)

Strategic Options

Kaya IdentityCarbonEnergy

EnergyService

ServicePopulation Populationx x x≡Carbon

(emitted in total)

Carbon Intensity

Energy Intensity

Service Intensityor

Car ≡ IC x IE x IS x P

Substitution/ Sequestration Efficiency Sufficiency/

Lifestyle Change

Strategic Options

“Wedgeology”

Pacala and Socolow, Science 305, 2004.

1. Efficient vehicles

2. Reduced vehicle use

3. Efficient buildings

4. Efficient baseload coal plants

5. Gas baseload power for coal baseloadpower

6. Capture CO2 at baseload power plant

7. Capture CO2 at H2 plant

8. Capture CO2 at coal to synfuels plant

9. Nuclear power for coal power

10. Wind power for coal power

11. PV power for coal power

12. Wind H2 in fuel cell car for gasoline in hybrid car

13. Biomass fuel for fossil fuel

14. Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation, afforestation and new plantations

15. Conservation tillage

*6-8: Geological storage

Potential wedges: strategies available to reduce CO2 emission rate in 2054 by 1GtC/yr or to reduce C emissions from 2004 to 2054 by 25 Gt.

COCO22 Emissions from Scenarios with Technological Emissions from Scenarios with Technological UncertaintyUncertainty

5 10 15 20 25 30

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Set of 130,000 Scenarios

Optimal set of13,250 scenariosR

elat

ive

Freq

uenc

y in

Per

cent

GtC in 2100GritsevkyiGritsevkyi & & NakicenovicNakicenovic IIASA 2000IIASA 2000

Relative losses of global GDP as a consequence of Climate Change

mitigation measures

The Model MIND

Technological change is driven by investment decisions

• Learning-by-doing in the energy sectors

• Assessment of Mitigation Options– Energy efficiency– Renewable energy sources– Carbon Capturing and Sequestration

Intertemporal welfarefunction

Optimize ConstraintGuardrail

Per capitaconsumption

Budget

Industrialproduction

Labour efficiencyunits

Energy efficiencyunits

Labour

Labourknowledge

capital

Energy Energyknowledge

capital

Renewableenergy

Secondaryfossil

energyTraditionalnon-fossil energy

(exog.)

Capital

Learning by doing

Capital stockren. energy

sector

Capital stockfossil energy

sector

Fossilprimaryenergy

carbonintensity (exog.)

Fossil fuelextraction

Capital stockextraction

Learning by doingResource scarcity

CO2concentration

Land usechange

CO2 emission

Fossil fuelCO2

emissions

SO2 emissions

Leakage

Energy

Capital stocksequestration

sector

Rad. forcing ofother GHG (exog.)

Global mean temperature change

Total radiative forcing

Captured CO2and SO2

Desulphurization(exog.)

Costs of Reducing Climate Change

Mitigation costs

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

300 400 500 600 700 800CO2 stabilization level [ppmv]

Pres

ent v

alue

of w

orld

G

WP

loss

[%] AIM A1B

MARIA A1TMARIA A1BMiniCAM A1FlMIND CPP

Macro-economic Costs

“Schellnhuber Identity”

Climate Change Coping Capacity (C4) ≡

≡ x PopulationxOverall CapacityGeneralized Wealth

Generalized WealthPopulation

xC4

Overall Capacity

or Climate Elasticity

Structural Elasticity

Affluence Elasticity

Cap ≡ Ec x Es x Ew

Climate Conscious Planning/ Redesign

Robust Infrastructure

Investment

Socioeconomic Progress

Strategic Options

Intermediate-Complexity Solution of Climate ProblemKing’s Equation: d = V · ∆c

Kaya Identity: Car = IC · IE · IS · P

Schellnhuber Identity: Cap = EC · ES · EW · P

2. Car´ = IC · IE · IS · P = Car

Cap´ = 2EC · 2ES · 2EW · P = 8 Cap

12

12

12

18

Assumptions: 1. ∆c ~ Car ; V ~ 1/Cap

V´ ·∆c´ = V · ∆c = V · ∆c18

164

18

Problem Solved by Portfolio Strategy!

d´ = d 164

UNICS:A Unified Certificate System

for Climate Change Management

Based Upon the Principles of• Precaution• Equity• Responsibility• Efficiency• Flexibility

UNICS:Main Ingredients of Simplest Version

• Emission Permits for GHG:“Permissions”

Confinement of Climate Change

• Adaptation Vouchers for Climate-Change Damage:“Admissions”

Compensation for Residual Climate Change

• Planetary Authority for Overseeing the Allocation, Expiration, (Re-)Valuation and Transaction of Permissions & Admissions:“PLATO”

Enforcement of Justice, Adequacy and Efficiency in Climate Change Management

UNICS: Twin Currency

Permission AdmissionPLATO

SerialNumber

k

Present Value: dG(0)

Expiration: T1 + 10τInvalidation:Impact Country: n Present Holder: n

Present Value: 1 MtC

Expiration: T1

Invalidation:Present Holder: n

Serial Number:

k

PLATO

CrucialCrucial ImplicationImplication

Holder of Holder of permissionpermission withwithserialserial numbernumber k k owesowes thethe holder of holder of mirrormirror admissionadmissionwithwith samesame serialserial numbernumbera a compensationcompensation worthworth dd(0)(0)(G)(G)

We threw good housekeeping to the winds.

But we saved ourselves

…. and helped save the worldJohn Maynard Keynes

(Of Britain in the Second World War)

We abolished unsustainable housekeeping.

So we ensured our long-term prosperity

…. and helped save the climateDavid King, Crispin Tickell & Klaus Töpfer

(Of Europe in the 21st century)

2000

2070