The Crime Funnel - s10294.pcdn.cos10294.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/28-April-Crime-Funnel... · FBI Crime Definitions ... The Crime Funnel 1 ... there is a drop-off at each

Elise Hansell ’15Charlotte Bailey ’16

Nina Kamath ’16Lane corrigan ’17

Joseph M. Bessette, Ph.D., Project Supervisor

850 Columbia Avenue Kravis Center 436

Claremont, CA 91711-6420P: (909) 621-8159

E: [email protected]

The Crime Funnel

April 2016

The Crime Funnel

Table of Contents

Introduction ...................................................................................................Methodology .................................................................................................. FBI Crime Definitions ................................................................................... Key Findings ...................................................................................................Murder Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 .........................................Murder Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .............................................Murder Ratios, 1986-2006 .............................................................................Rape Funnels Based on Incidents, 1998-2006 .............................................Rape Funnels Based on Arrests, 1998-2006 .................................................Rape Ratios, 1998-2006 .................................................................................Robbery Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ........................................Robbery Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 ...........................................Robbery Ratios, 1986-2006 ...........................................................................Robbery Gender Comparison, 2006 .............................................................Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ...................... Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .........................Aggravated Assault Ratios, 1986-2006 .........................................................Aggravated Assault Gender Comparison, 2006 ...........................................Burglary Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ........................................Burglary Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 ...........................................Burglary Ratios, 1986-2006 ...........................................................................Burglary Gender Comparison, 2006 .............................................................Total Funnels based on Incidents, 1986-2006 ..............................................Total Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .................................................Total Incident Ratios,1986-2006 ...................................................................Drug Abuse Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .....................................Drug Trafficking Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006 .............................Appendix ........................................................................................................

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1The Crime Funnel

IntroductionThe Rose Institute of State and Local Government presents its first comprehensive analysis of crime and criminal justice in the United States in our first report on the Crime Funnel Project.

A crime funnel is a succinct way to display the likelihood that the commission of a crime will result in an arrest, a felony conviction, incarceration (in a local jail or state prison), and imprisonment. While every serious crime should ideally result in the conviction of the offender and the imposition of an appropriate sentence, there is a drop-off at each stage of the process because not all crimes result in an arrest, not all arrests lead to a felony conviction, and not all convictions result in an appropriate sentence. Together, these drop-offs can be displayed as a graph in the shape of a funnel.

After compiling data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Judicial Reporting Program (NJRP), our team constructed over 80 funnels to display and analyze the changes in the criminal justice system over the last two decades.

The first portion of the project looks at the five most serious index crimes outlined in the FBI’s UCR program. These five crimes are murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary. The team compiled data for these five crimes from 1986 through 2006 on a quadrennial basis to assess the changes over time. (2006 is the most recent year with national sentencing data.) To gain a better understanding of these changes, we created two sets of funnels for each year. The first set begins with incidents and the second begins with arrests. The advantage of beginning with arrests is that these funnels more directly show how the criminal justice system responds once an alleged offender is in custody. We have also included the 2006 male and female comparison funnels for robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary. In addition to the funnels, our team calculated four different ratios for each index crime. Please see “Methodology” for details.

Although the crimes studied in this report are all felonies – which typically means they can result in incarceration for at least a year – in some cases, offenders arrested for these crimes may be convicted of a lesser misdemeanor and receive a shorter jail sentence or probation. For example, someone arrested for aggravated assault, typically a felony because it involves serious bodily injury or the use of a deadly weapon, may plead guilty to the lesser crime of simple assault, typically a misdemeanor because the bodily harm was not serious and a deadly weapon was not used. Because we have no national data on misdemeanor convictions, all conviction data in this report are for felony convictions only.

Lastly, our team looked at the arrest and processing for those accused of drug crimes over the period from 1986 through 2006. These funnels will become of particular interest in future reports as we examine differences among the states in sentencing policies.

It is our hope that these crime funnels will offer readers and researchers a unique perspective on the criminal justice system and its evolution over the last two decades. The team would like to thank Professor Joseph Bessette of CMC’s Department of Government for his leadership and guidance on this project. His extensive knowledge of the criminal justice system proved an invaluable resource throughout the entire process. For this, we thank him.

Charlotte BaileyElise HansellLane CorriganNina Kamath

2The Crime Funnel

The creation of each crime funnel requires four different data points: the number of incidents, the number of arrests, the number of convictions, and the number of incarcerations. The number of incidents is the number of crimes of specific types reported to local law enforcement. Conviction data refer to the number of felony convictions and do not include convictions on non-felony charges. Because incarceration includes local jail (usually a sentence up to a year) and state prison (usually a sentence of at least a year), we also show sentences to prison separately. Any incarceration resulting from a conviction on misdemeanor charges is not reflected in the data. The data come from two main sources: incident and arrest data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and conviction and sentencing data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Both are agencies of the U.S. Department of Justice. (The Appendix provides detailed source information for the data presented in each graph.)

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program (UCR) publishes Crime in the United States, an annual report compiling the volume and rate of violent and property crimes and arrests nationwide. The UCR program relies on 16,000 city, county, and state law enforcement agencies to voluntarily report criminal incidents and arrests. The data cover 95% of the United States population, including 97% of those living in metropolitan areas and 87% in rural areas.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Judicial Reporting Program (NJRP) publishes the biannual Felony Sentences in State Courts report, providing conviction and sentencing data for each of the five crimes. The NJRP data sets are compiled using a complex stratified cluster sampling design, collecting data from 300 of the over 3000 counties in the United States. The method gives greater weight to the 75 largest counties because they account for a larger proportion of serious crime in the nation. BJS researchers utilized state courts, prosecutor’s offices,

Methodology sentencing commissions, and statistical agencies to collect the data. BJS has published reports on felony sentencing in state courts every two years between 1986 and 2006. (BJS discontinued this program in 2006, which is why 2006 is the most recent year for these funnels.)

In addition to using these data to create the funnels, our team prepared four different ratios for each crime. The first ratio compares arrests to incidents, demonstrating the likelihood that the commission of a crime results in an arrest. (For convenience, we present these as the number of arrests per 100 incidents. We use this method for all the ratios.) The second ratio compares felony convictions to arrests, illustrating the likelihood that an arrest resulted in a felony conviction for that particular crime. The third ratio compares incarceration to arrests, illustrating the likelihood that an arrest results in incarceration. The fourth ratio compares prison sentences to arrests, demonstrating the likelihood that an arrest results in state prison time for an offender. It is important to note that the ratios present aggregate data and cannot account for the fact that (a) a single offender might commit several crimes resulting in a single arrest and (perhaps after a plea bargain) a single prison sentence and (b) multiple offenders might together commit a single crime but each be arrested, convicted, and sentenced to prison. (Readers interested in more precise measures of how many crimes are “cleared” by an arrest should consult the FBI’s annual Crime in the United States.1) Despite these qualifications, the funnels and ratios provide a broad quantitative look at the system’s effectiveness in dealing with each crime. This allows for comparisons across crime types and well as changes over time.

1 The FBI considers a crime “cleared” if, (1) an offender is arrested, charged with the crime, and turned over to the court for prosecution, or (2) the case is closed for some other reason, such as the death of the offender prior to arrest.

3FBI Crime Definitions

Crime Definition

Criminal Homicide

Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter (covered in this report): the willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another. Deaths caused by negligence, attempts to kill, assaults to kill, suicides, and accidental deaths are excluded. The program classifies justifiable homicides separately and limits the definition to: (1) the killing of a felon by a law enforcement officer in the line of duty; or (2) the killing of a felon, during the commission of a felony, by a private citizen. Manslaughter by negligence (not covered in this report): the killing of another person through gross negligence. Deaths of persons due to their own negligence, acci-dental deaths not resulting from gross negligence, and traffic fatalities are not included in the category Manslaughter by Negligence.

Rape Penetration, no matter how slight, of the vagina or anus with any body part or ob-ject, or oral penetration by a sex organ of another person, without the consent of the victim. Rapes by force and attempts or assaults to rape, regardless of the age of the victim, are included. Statutory offenses (no force used―victim under age of consent) are excluded.

Robbery The taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons by force or threat of force or violence and/or by putting the victim in fear.

Aggravated Assault

An unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault usually is accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. Simple assaults are excluded.

Burglary (break-ing or entering)

The unlawful entry of a structure to commit a felony or a theft. Attempted forcible entry is included.

Definition of Rape prior to January 1, 2013

The carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will. Rapes by force and at-tempts or assaults to rape, regardless of the age of the victim, are included. Statutory offenses (no force used―victim under age of consent) are excluded.

ClassificationThe FBI’s UCR program requires contributing agencies to classify crime according to the definitions below. The definitions are all categorized as Part I offenses (also called Index crimes) and are ranked below in order of their seriousness. In instances in which criminals have

committed multiple crimes in the same incident, the FBI employs the Hierarchy Rule, requiring agencies to count only the highest offense for its reporting statistics. For example, if an offender both robbed and murdered the victim, the UCR program data would only count the murder because it is the more serious crime.

4Key Findings

• As the funnels demonstrate, there is great variation among the five Index crimes -- murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary – in how many incidents lead to an arrest, how many arrests lead to a conviction, and how many convictions result in a sentence to incarceration (local jail or state prison).

• For murder, most incidents result in an arrest, most arrests in a conviction, and most convictions in imprisonment. Murder incidents dropped 17% between 1986 and 2006, and 27% between 1990 and 2006.

• Even though arrests per murder dropped during the 20-year period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences per arrest all increased, indicating a toughening of the system once an alleged offender was in custody.

• Although the number of rapes reported to the police was fairly constant between 1998 and 2006, prison sentences in 2006 were 30% higher than in 1998 and 43% higher than in 2002.

• Although there is a large drop-off from incidents of robbery to arrests and from arrests to convictions, a large majority of those convicted of robbery received a sentence to state prison.

• Compared to murder, rape, and robbery, the crime of aggravated assault shows a much more dramatic drop-off from incidents and arrests to punishment. Nonetheless, with only 3% more incidents in 2006 than in 1986, convictions almost tripled over the period and prison sentences more than doubled. Even so, only about 1 in 10 of those arrested for aggravated assault in 2006 received a prison sentence.

• Burglary shows a very similar pattern to aggravated assault: a very large drop-off from incidents to arrests and from arrests to incarceration, but also a measurable toughening of the system over time, with those arrested for burglary more likely to be convicted and incarcerated at the end of the 20-year period.

• The male-female comparisons (for robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary) all show that women commit many fewer crimes than men do and once arrested are less likely than men to be convicted or incarcerated.

• Between 1986 and 2006, the total number of murders, rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults, and burglaries was down 24%; yet during this same period convictions for these crimes were up 30%, incarcerations up 27%, and sentences to state prison up 15%. This is powerful evidence of a toughening of the criminal justice system for these five very serious crimes.

• In the twelve years between 1994 and 2006, arrests for drug abuse violations (which include possession, trafficking, sale, manufacture, etc.) increased 42%, with convictions increasing 38%, incarceration sentences 45%, and prison sentences 75%.

• Over the 20-year period, arrests for drug trafficking (which includes sale and manufacture) increased 78%. During the same period, convictions increased 178%, incarceration sentences 193%, and sentences to prison 212%. These figures are much higher than those for any of the other crimes studied here.

5

Over the 20-year span, we observe a consistency in the thickness of these funnels, indicating that most incidents result in arrest, most arrests in convictions, and most convictions in imprisonment. Between 1986 and 2006, incidents decreased 17%, with a drop of 27% between 1990 and 2006.

Figure 1, Murder Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006

Source: See AppendixNote: Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.

23,438

19,771

10,895

10,350

9,914

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Murder Funnel - 1990

16,974

15,390

9,158

8,792

8,609

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


17,034

12,160

8,670

8,240

8,080

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


20,613

17,463

9,854

9,361

9,066

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


23,326

18,430

12,007

11,647

11,407

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


16,229

12,840

8,990

8,541

8,181

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


6

Despite the omission of the incident data, the funnel thickness remains relatively consistent over the 20-year period. A substantial majority of arrests result in convictions and nearly all convictions result in a prison sentence. The relatively few convictions that result in no incarceration may have been to “nonnegligent manslaughter” (such as a “heat of passion” killing), which is included in the definition of murder in these data.

Figure 2, Murder Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006

19,771

10,895

10,350

9,914

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


15,390

9,158

8,792

8,609

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


12,160

8,670

8,240

8,080

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.

18,430

12,007

11,647

11,407

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


12,840

8,990

8,541

8,181

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


17,463

9,854

9,361

9,066

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


7

Comparing these ratios to those for other crimes shows that the more serious the crime, the more likely the offender is to be arrested and punished. Notably, even though arrests per murder incident decrease over the time period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences per arrest all increase, indicating a toughening of the system once an alleged offender is in custody.

Figure 3, Murder Ratios, 1986-2006


85 84 7991

7971

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Murder: Arrests per 100 Incidents

56 5565 60

70 71

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Murder: Convictions per 100 Arrests

54 5263 57

67 68

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Murder: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests

52 5062 56

64 66

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Murder: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests

8Figure 4, Rape Funnels Based on Incidents, 1998-2006

94,635

21,860

12,310

10,960

8,490

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Rape Funnel - 2004

90,178

23,030

10,600

9,540

7,420

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


Source: See AppendixNote: Due to a definition change by the Bureau of Justice Statistics in 1998, we are only able to examine the rape funnels from that year onward. Incidents refer to the number of crimes reported to local law enforcement, whatever the age of the offender. Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data.

Although the number of rapes reported to police was fairly constant between 1998 and 2006, prison sentences in 2006 were 30% higher than in 1998 and 43% higher than in 2002.

93,144

25,770

11,622

9,762

8,135

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


95,235

23,630

10,980

9,772

7,357

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


92,455

20,940

14,720

12,720

10,540

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


9

Even with the omission of the incident data, the funnels demonstrate the significant drop-off from arrests to convictions. The considerable thickening of the funnels over time demonstrate a toughening of the criminal justice system’s response to rape.

Figure 5, Rape Funnels Based on Arrests, 1998-2006

21,860

12,310

10,960

8,490

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison



23,630

10,980

9,772

7,357

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


20,940

14,720

12,720

10,540

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


25,770

11,622

9,762

8,135

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


23,030

10,600

9,540

7,420

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


10

Although the proportion of reported rapes that resulted in an arrest dropped during the 8-year period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences all increased considerably.

Figure 6, Rape Ratios, 1998-2006


28 26 25 23 23

0

20

40

60

80

100

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Rape: Arrests per 100 Incidents

45 46 4656

70

0

20

40

60

80

100

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Rape: Convictions per 100 Arrests

38 41 4150

61

0

20

40

60

80

100

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Rape: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests

32 32 3139

50

0

20

40

60

80

100

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Rape: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests

11

Similar to the rape funnels, the robbery funnels demonstrate a significant drop-off from incidents to arrests. Despite this, the bottom three tiers maintain a similar shape, indicating relative system toughness once an arrest has been made.

Figure 7, Robbery Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006

639,271

127,672

47,446

42,701

34,636

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Robbery Funnel - 1990

447,186

86,900

38,784

34,130

29,476

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


447,403

90,800

41,740

35,620

29,670

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison



542,775

112,266

42,305

36,805

32,152

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


618,949

117,300

46,028

40,505

35,442

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


420,806

81,200

38,430

33,050

27,285

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


12

With the omission of the incident data, it is easier to observe the large drop-off from arrests to convictions. Yet, it is also clear that the vast majority of convictions result in incarceration, and the vast majority of incarceration sentences are to state prison.

Figure 8, Robbery Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006

127,672

47,446

42,701

34,636

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


86,900

38,784

34,130

29,476

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


90,800

41,740

35,620

29,670

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison



112,266

42,305

36,805

32,152

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


117,300

46,028

40,505

35,442

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


81,200

38,430

33,050

27,285

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


13

Although the proportion of robberies that resulted in an arrest was fairly constant over the 20-year period, convictions, incarcerations, and prison sentences per arrest all increased, indicating a toughening of the criminal justice system for those arrested for robbery.

Figure 9, Robbery Ratios, 1986-2006


21 20 19 19 19 20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Robbery: Arrests per 100 Incidents

38 37 39 45 47 46

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Robbery: Convictions per 100 Arrests

33 33 35 39 41 39

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Robbery: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests

29 27 30 34 34 33

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Robbery: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests

14

The individual male and female funnels reflect the gaping gender disparity for the crime of robbery. This male/female comparison demonstrates that women commit far fewer robberies than men (12% vs. 88%), and once arrested are less likely to be convicted or incarcerated.

Figure 10, Robbery Gender Comparison, 2006

Source: See AppendixNote: Arrests, convictions, incarceration, and prison refer to actions taken against adults with respect to felony charges. Misdemeanor and other non-felony charges are not reflected in the data. Also, because “Easy Access to FBI Arrest Statistics” does not include gender data for the national estimates, we have estimated gender data using the ratio of reported arrests to the FBI’s estimate of all national arrests, combined with FBI published data on reported adult arrests (see Appendix).

79,932

37,983

32,666

26,968

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Male RobberyFunnel - 2006

10,871

3,757

2,705

1,953

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Female Robbery Funnel - 2006

100%

48%

41%

34%

100%

35%

25%

18%

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Male/Female Robbery Funnel - 2006

MaleFemale

15

Compared to the funnels for other violent crimes, aggravated assault shows a much more dramatic drop-off from incidents and arrests to punishment. Nonetheless, the trend shows a substantial toughening of the system over the 20-year period. With only 3% more aggravated assaults reported by the police in 2006 than in 1986, there were almost three times as many convictions in 2006, and about two and one-half times as many offenders incarcerated and imprisoned.

Figure 11, Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006

1,054,863

399,277

53,861

38,780

24,237

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Aggravated Assault Funnel -1990

976,583

434,100

71,060

51,163

32,688

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


860,853

387,400

100,560

72,730

43,100

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison



834,322

306,040

38,245

27,154

17,210

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


1,113,179

462,300

65,174

48,881

31,284

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


891,407

410,100

95,600

67,876

40,152

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


16Figure 12, Aggravated Assault Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006

399,277

53,861

38,780

24,237

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


434,100

71,060

51,163

32,688

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


Although only a small fraction of arrests for the felony of aggravated assault result in a felony conviction (with many likely leading to a conviction for simple assault, a misdemeanor), the likelihood of a felony conviction increased substantially over the 20-year period.


306,040

38,245

27,154

17,210

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


462,300

65,174

48,881

31,284

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


410,100

95,600

67,876

40,152

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


387,400

100,560

72,730

43,100

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


17Figure 13, Aggravated Assault Ratios, 1986-2006

As these graphs demonstrate, by every measure there has been a considerable toughening of the criminal justice system’s response to the crime of aggravated assault over the 20-year period. Even so, by the end of the period only about one in ten of those arrested for this felony ended up receiving a sentence to state prison.


9 10 11 12 17 19

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Aggravated Assault: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests

6 6 7 8 10 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Aggravated Assault: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests

12 13 14 16 23 26

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Aggravated Assault: Convictions per 100 Arrests

37 38 42 44 46 45

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Aggravated Assault: Arrests per 100 Incidents

18

As with the gender comparison for robbery, the funnels for aggravated assault indicate remarkable disparities between male and female criminal behavior (with men responsible for 80% of the arrests) and also the apparent greater leniency of the criminal justice system toward females arrested for aggravated assault.

Figure 14, Aggravated Assault Gender Comparison, 2006


78,723

14,078

8,588

3,801

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Female Aggravated Assault Funnel - 2006

308,773

86,482

65,726

38,917

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Male Aggravated Assault Funnel - 2006

100%

28%

21%

13%

100%

18%

11%

5%

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Male/Female Aggravated Assault Funnel - 2006

MaleFemale

19

The burglary funnels show a sharp contrast between incidents and punishment, with only a very small fraction of burglaries resulting in a conviction or incarceration sentence. Yet there is also evidence of a toughening of the system over time: while incidents decreased 33% between 1986 and 2006, convictions were down only 3% and incarceration sentences down only 4%.

Figure 15, Burglary Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006


3,241,410

288,384

102,683

75,985

54,422

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Burglary Funnel - 1986

3,073,909

289,842

109,750

82,313

59,265

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


2,712,774

251,000

98,109

73,156

51,976

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


2,332,735

214,800

87,957

65,968

47,497

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


2,183,746

221,300

99,910

73,040

48,960

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


2,151,252

202,100

100,640

72,461

46,294

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


20

The basic shape of these funnels is fairly consistent, showing no major changes in the treatment of burglary by the criminal justice system during the 20-year period.

Figure 16, Burglary Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006


288,384

102,683

75,985

54,422

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


289,842

109,750

82,313

59,265

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


214,800

87,957

65,968

47,497

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


221,300

99,910

73,040

48,960

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


251,000

98,109

73,156

51,976

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


202,100

100,640

72,461

46,294

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


21

Although the likelihood of arrest for burglary remained fairly constant over the 20-year period, convictions and incarcerations per arrest increased significantly, while sentences to state prison increased at a lower rate.

Figure 17, Burglary Ratios, 1986-2006


9 9 9 9 9 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Burglary: Arrests per 100 Incidents

36 38 39 4150 45

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Burglary: Convictions per 100 Arrests

26 28 29 31 36 33

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Burglary: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests

19 20 21 22 23 22

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Burglary: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests

22

As with the pattern for robbery and aggravated assault, females commit far fewer crimes than men (16% vs. 84%)and once arrested are considerably less likely to be convicted or incarcerated.

Figure 18, Burglary Gender Comparison, 2006


185,341

89,919

67,439

44,960

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Male Burglary Funnel - 2006

36,091

9,991

7,194

3,897

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Female Burglary Funnel - 2006

100%

49%

36%

24%

100%

28%

20%

11%

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Male/Female Burglary Funnel - 2006

MaleFemale

23

Although there were 24% fewer incidents of murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary reported in 2006 compared to 1986, there were at the end of the period 30% more convictions for these crimes, 27% more incarceration sentences, and 15% more prison sentences. This is powerful evidence of a toughening of the criminal justice system for these five very serious crimes.

Figure 19, Total Funnels Based on Incidents, 1986-2006


4,639,120

724,153

193,087

149,306

112,850

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Total Incidents Funnel -1986

4,791,481

836,562

221,952

174,144

128,052

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


4,468,228

849,030

221,318

174,188

130,108

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


3,773,478

751,190

206,959

160,053

118,270

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


3,479,694

706,240

243,660

181,928

121,912

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


3,509,036

711,660

250,880

189,630

129,810

Incidents

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


24Figure 20, Total Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006


724,153

193,087

149,306

112,850

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Total Arrests Funnel -1986

836,562

221,952

174,144

128,052

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


849,030

221,318

174,188

130,108

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


751,190

206,959

160,053

118,270

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


706,240

243,660

181,928

121,912

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


711,660

250,880

189,630

129,810

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


Even though arrests for these five serious crimes dropped 16% between the peak year of 1994 and 2006, convictions were up 13% and incarceration sentences were up 9%.

25Figure 21, Total Incidents Ratios, 1986-2006

By each of these measures there has been a significant toughening of the criminal justice system over the 20-year period, with prison sentences increasing at the lowest rate.


16 17 19 20 20 20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Total Incidents: Arrests per100 Incidents

27 27 26 28 35 35

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Total Incidents: Convictions per 100 Arrests

21 21 21 21 26 27

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Total Incidents: Incarcerations per 100 Arrests

16 15 15 16 17 18

0

20

40

60

80

100

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Total Incidents: Prison Sentences per 100 Arrests

26Figure 22, Drug Abuse Funnels Based on Arrests, 1994-2006


1,192,000

274,245

170,580

81,177

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Drug Abuse Funnel - 1994

1,352,100

340,330

224,618

132,729

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


1,358,300

314,626

213,946

132,143

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


1,692,700

377,860

247,280

141,780

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


In the twelve years between 1994 and 2006, arrests for drug abuse violations (which include possession, trafficking, sale, man-ufacture, etc.) increased 42%, with convictions increasing 38%, incarceration sentences 45%, and prison sentences 75%.

27Figure 23, Drug Trafficking Funnels Based on Arrests, 1986-2006


185,423

76,437

48,651

28,151

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison

National Drug Trafficking Funnel -1986

324,235

168,360

129,637

82,496

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


318,607

165,430

116,938

78,762

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


286,899

195,183

138,580

87,832

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


266,465

212,810

144,711

89,380

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


330,700

212,490

142,660

87,870

Arrests

Convictions

Incarceration

Prison


Over the 20-year period, arrests for drug trafficking (which includes sale and manufacture) increased 78%, with convictions up 178%, incarceration sentences up 193%, and sentences to prison up 212%.

28The Crime Funnel

Appendix

Incident Data for Figures 1, 4, 7, 11, 15, 19

Data Building Tool for All Years

Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Statistics, Customized Table-Building Tool, Estimated Crime in the United States-Total, available at: http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/RunCrimeStateby-State.cfm. Accessed April 2014.

Individual Reports

Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 1995, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/1995/95sec2.pdf. Accessed April 2014.


Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2000, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2000. Accessed April 2014.


Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program Crime in the United States 2004, available at: http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/. Accessed April 2014.

Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2006, available at: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2006. Accessed April 2014.

Arrest Data for Figures 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16, 22

Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1986, pg. 3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc86.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1990, pg. 2, table 1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc90.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Data-Building Tool for 1994-2006:

Puzzanchera, C. and Kang, W. (2014) “Easy Access to FBI Arrest Statistics 1994-2012.” Online, available at: http://www.ojjdp.gov/ojstatbb/ezaucr/. Accessed March 2016.

29The Crime Funnel

Appendix Continued

Arrest Data for Figure 23

Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 1986, pg. 3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fspsc86.pdf. Accessed April 2014.





Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States 2006, table 29, available at: https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_29.html; Arrest Table, available at: https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/arrests/index.html. Accessed April 2014.

Conviction Data for Figures 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16, 22, 23

Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felons Sentenced to State Courts, 1986, pg. 3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fspsc86.pdf. Accessed April 2014.






30The Crime Funnel

Appendix Continued

Bureau of Justice Statistics, State Court Sentencing of Convicted Felons, 2004 – Statistical Tables, table 1.1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/html/scscf04/tables/scs04101tab.cfm. Accessed April 2014.

Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006 – Statistical Tables, pg. 3, table 1.1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Incarceration/Prison Data for Figures 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16, 22, 23






Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006, pg. 5, table 1.2.1, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf. Accessed April 2014.

Male/Female Data for Figures 10, 14, 18

Arrests

Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States, 2006, Table 33, available at: http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_33.html. Accessed April 2014. See also Notes for Figures 10, 14, and 18.

Conviction, Incarceration, and Prison

Bureau of Justice Statistics, Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2006, pg. 17-18, Tables 3.2 and 3.3, available at: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fssc06st.pdf/. Accessed April 2014.

Note: Tables 3.2 and 3.3 list the percentage of men and women convicted and incarcerated. These percentages were used in conjunction with the overall conviction and incarceration numbers from Table 1.2.1 to calculate the male/female breakdown.

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