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The Development and The Development and Perspective of Perspective of China Wind PowerChina Wind Power
Li JunfengEnergy Research Institute & CREIA At DTU Campus Lyngby, DenmarkJanuary 14-15, 2009
Workshop on Sustainable Energy
ContentsNational Wind Power ResourceNational Wind Power ResourceThe Development of Wind PowerThe Development of Wind PowerThe Influence of PRC Renewable Energy The Influence of PRC Renewable Energy Law to Wind Power DevelopmentLaw to Wind Power DevelopmentThe Obstacles in Wind Power DevelopmentThe Obstacles in Wind Power DevelopmentThe Perspective of Wind Power The Perspective of Wind Power DevelopmentDevelopmentThe Proposals for Wind Power DevelopmentThe Proposals for Wind Power Development
National Wind Power Resource
There are discrepancy between different institutions for evaluation of wind power resource in methodology and results.
It still indicates that the wind resource in China is abundant.
GW
253 300
1,400
750
600
2,000
150
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2nd Resource Census 3rd Resource Census UNEP Calculate CAS GeographicalInstitution
Estimated by OceanScheme
Land Sea
National Wind Power Resource
Theoretical reserves of more than 4,000GW above 10m height with technically exploitable reserve of 300GW. The practical development area is approximate 200,000 km2
Based on current technology, over 50m level, it requires 3-5 MW wind turbine to cover 1km2. With 200,000 km2 development land area available in China, the total installed onshore wind capacity can probably reach 600~ 1,000GW.
According to the China Coastal Zone and Tideland Resource Investigation Report, the sea area of 0-20m off coastline is around 157,000 km2
Assuming 10% to 20% of the total amount of sea surface used, the total offshore wind capacity can reach 100~200GW.
Onshore Resource
Conclusion：Abundant wind power resource in ChinaGreat development potentialA key constituent in future energy structure
Offshore Resource
The Development of Wind Power Status
Wind Power Concession Projects
In order to scale up wind power industry, the government apply concession model and has approved four rounds of wind power concession projects with 35 projects (8,850MW) open for tender
The government select the winner though public tender, with lowest on grid tariff bidder likely to be awarded the contract. (In 2005, they revised the appraisal rules, in which the weight of tariff bided was reduced from 40% to 25% in 2006. The fifth round of tender in 2007 is further modified with the most close to average bidding price scoring highest ( both the highest and lowest tariff bidders are excluded).The duration of concession: 25 years Provincial power grid company needs to sign the off-take contract and purchase the entire electricity from wind power projects The price difference between conventional power and wind power will be allotted within the provincial grid. (allotted within national grid since 2006 )The tariff structure is divided into two-phase with 30,000 operating hrs as the milestone.
Wind tariff in china
Provisions and Regulations in Wind PowerNational Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued
“Regulations on Power Generation from Renewable Energy Sources”“Renewable Power Generation Tariff and Cost Allotment Measure - Provisional”“Renewable Power Tariff Top-ups Administration Rules”“Renewable Energy Industry Development Guidance Catalogue”Issued middle and long term renewable energy development goal Deployed wind resource census
Ministry of Finance issued“Renewable Energy Development Special Funds Interim Measures”
State Electricity Regulatory Commission issued“Gridcos Mandatory Purchase of Renewable Energy Electricity Regulation”
Other Policy GuidelinesBesides the above general development provisions and regulations for renewable energy, there are other specific notices in this field
“The Requirements of Wind Power Construction and Management Notice”“The Implementation Guidelines to Promote Wind Power Industry”“Wind Power Plant Construction and the Environmental Protection Interim Measures”“State Grid Corporation Plant Access System Preparatory Work Management Approach”
Wind Power Development: current status
Expanded Wind Power Market
Increasing Investment in Wind Power
Strengthening Manufacture Capacity of Wind Power Equipments
Expanded Wind Power Market
6.04 GWCapacity6500UnitsTotal
0.81Hongkong22296188Jiangsu 11
1.51Tianjin 21296.7471Guangdong 10
1.71Hunan 20297.6418Xinjiang9
32Henan 19346.2376Ningxia8
54Shanxi 18369.2315Shandong 7
8.718Hainan 17376.1428Heilongjiang 6
1416Hubei 16408.1428Gansu 5
2921Shanghai 15509.3616Liaoning 4
4769Zhejiang 14531.2514Hebei3
5033Beijing 13628624Jilin 2
233.8178Fujian 121585.51736Inner Mongolia 1
MWUnitsRegionNo. MWUnits RegionNo.
Increasing Investment in Wind Power
Development of Wind Power PlantDevelopment of Wind Power PlantOn the rapid growth in last 5 years, wind power is second fastest growing capacity in North American and EU after CCGT. In China, wind power has attracted substantial investment by big power groups since 2006.
State-Owned Corporate: 5 National Power Gencos, China ShenhuaEnergy Company, China Yangtze Power.. These giant energy companies have all joined in the wind power development and compete for franchise projects. Provincial Corporate: many provincial energy investing or power generation companies, for instance Hebei Jiantou Energy Investment, Beijing Energy Investment Holding, Guangdong Yudean Group, and Guangdong Nuclear Power Group;Foreign Corporate: Australia Hydro Tasmania, CLP Holding Ltd., Hongkong Electric ,Ireland An Cui, Spanish Acciona Energia S.A.
Cheaper manufacture in China
Major suppliers in ChinaGold Wind
（Xin Jiang Urumchi）Sinovel Wind（Liao Ning Da Lian）
Dong Fang Electric（Si Chuan Mian Zu）Ming Yang Electric（Guang Dong Zhong Shan）
Hara XEMC Wind Power（Hu Nan Xiang Tan）……
Chong Qing Wind Power Equipment（Chong Qing)
Shanghai Electric（Shanghai）Zhejiang Windey Wind Generating Engineering
（Zhe Jiang Hang Zhou）CRE Wind
（Liao Ning Sheng Yang）Harbin Power
（He Long Jiang Harbin）……
Gamesa、 Vestas、GE、Suzlon、RE Power、Acciona、NordexSKF、FAG、LM、XREB
Dom
estic
Inve
stm
ent
Fore
ign
Inve
stm
ent
There are currently more than 40 wind turbine generator manufacturers in China, including 4 foreign-invested enterprises , 7 joint-venture companies and over 20 domestic manufacturers.
Major suppliers in ChinaProduction scaling is doing well and many large volume-producers emerge, such as Gold Wind, Sinovel Wind, Dong Fang Electric, Zhejiang Windey Wind Generating Engineering;
Several small capacity manufacturers are in trial production stage, such as Chong Qing Wind Power Equipment, CRE Wind ,Ming Yang Electric;
Under R&D and prototyping stage: Shanghai Electric, Hara XEMC Wind Power, Harbin Power
Major suppliers in China
Domestic companies still lag behind in technology, production scale and market share, however, it takes off and shows rapid growth recently
In 2005, domestic wind turbine manufacturers took approximate 30% of domestic market share, over 90% of which was provided by GoldWind (Xin Jiang) ;In 2006, the domestic producers’ market share was up 10% yoy to 41.2% (45% including the joint-venture companies. The largest domestic supplier—— Gold Wind saw its capacity rise sharply by three times than 2005; in 2007, Goldwind, Sinovel Wind, Dongfang Electric ranked as the first threeIn 2008 Sinovel, Goldwind and Dongfang Ranked the first three lage
Major suppliers in China
Nanjing High-speed Gear Box Factory（Gear Box）Chong Qing Gear Box（Gear Box） ……
Wafangdian Bearing Co., Ltd. (Bearings)Luoyang Bearing Group（Bearings）Zhejiang Tianma Bearing Co., Ltd （Bearings）
Beijing Kono Albert Chan Electrical Technology Co., Ltd （Electric Control System）XJ Electric Co., Ltd（Electric Control System) ……
Yongji Xinshisu Electric Equipment Co., Ltd （Generator）Lanzhou Electric Corporation（Generator） ……
Zhonghang (Baoding) Huiteng Wind Power Equipment Co., Ltd（Rotor Blade）Lianyungang Zhongfu Lianzhong Composites Group Co., Ltd（ Rotor Blade ）Tian Jing LM（ Rotor Blade ） ……
The Obstacles in Wind Power Development
Tariff Setting
“On-grid tariff of wind power are set by tender process.”
No clear operation procedure Tariffs set too low as a result of biddingIrrational bidding behaviors by some developer who take “land grabbing” as the first priority
Grid Construction and Plan
Grid construction and management lags behind wind power development
North, Northwest, NortheastEastern Coastal Area
The code for wind power plant connecting to electricity grid is still not standardized Wind power construction is not synchronized with gird network construction plan
The Perspective of Wind Power -FY2010
The newly installed wind capacity was 1,333MW in 2006, 3400 MW for 2007 and 5500 for 2008. The 10 GW target for 2010 has been reached. The domestic wind power equipment business has been established. The quality and class of products are improving. The production capacity is expanding. It is reasonable to expect a total accumulated installed capacity of 25-30 GW, even more in 2010, with a annual increased about 10 GW based on China’s wind power equipment manufacturing capacity.
The Perspective of Wind Power -FY2020
Objective: total installed capacity of 2020 is amount to 80 to 150 GW; Compare to 28.3% of global wind power average growth rate in last decade
If the development of wind power industry goes well with installed capacity growing by 4GW p.a, or 25% CAGR, the total Installed wind capacity can reach 70 GW by 2015, If the development of wind power industry goes well with installed capacity growing by 15 GW p.a, the total Installed wind capacity can reach 150 GW by 2020At that time, the wind power installed capacity will account for nearly 10% of total power capacity or 5 % output.
Development review of 2020
The Perspective of Wind Power -FY2030
Wind power would become competitive to other source of power generating capacity on cost basis since 2020
If the annual capacity growth reach over 15GW, or 30% of national capacity added, the total accumulated installed capacity can reach 400 GW. At that time, the wind power installed capacity will account for over 20 % of total power capacity and meet 10 % of national power demand in China.
The Perspective of Wind Power -FY2050
After 2030, most hydro power resource will be fully utilized. With attractive social and environmental benefit, the wind power willbecome the key component in power generating in China
If wind power capacity increases 15GW per annually, or 5~7% p.a, (GWEC estimated the global annual growth rate at roughly 2%), the total wind power installed capacity can reach to 600 GW in 2050;
The wind power will be the third largest generating capacity after Thermal and Hydro power
The Perspective of Wind Power
2.9%156004.1%154504.8%154002050
4.1%154505.2%123007.6%132502040
7.2%153009.9%1118014.9%81202030
14.9%1515018.5%87014.9%6.4302020
24.6%107524.6%43024.6%2.4152015
76.1%52540.0%1.851017.8%1.3552010
105.0%2.6
105.0%2.6
105.0%1.332.62006
72%1.262005
%GWGW%GWmillion
kW%GWGW
Growth rate
Incremental
Growth rate
Incremental
Growth rate
Incremental
per year
per year
Capacity
per year
per year
Capacity
per year
per year
Capacity
Development Plan (High)Development Plan
(Medium)Development Plan (Low)
Year
The Proposal for Wind Power Development
Improve Policy SystemElectricity Tariff Favorable Tax Treatment
Capital InvestmentGrid Construction and Planning
Enhance Management SystemPublic Technology R&D Platform, etc
Large wind farm combine with distributed wind farmPlanned 6 large wind farms with 10 GWSmall one all over the country, in 2008, about 25 regions with wind (total 34)
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