The Dow is approaching my Semiannual Risky Level at 10,558

8/9/2019 The Dow is approaching my Semiannual Risky Level at 10,558

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

July 27, 2010 The Dow is approac hing my Semiannual Risky Level at 10,558

The yield on the 10-Year note ended Monday on my annual pivot at 2.999. Any strength in goldshould remain shy of my semiannual pivot at $1218.7. On crude oil a daily close above mymonthly pivot at $79.36 targets semiannual risky level at $83.94. This weeks pivot for the eurois 1.2797. The Dow shows a weekly value level at 10,212 with my annual pivot at 10,379 and mysemiannual risky level at 10,558. Dont trust New Home Sales for June. I will be covering thebanking system among other subjects at my presentation in NYC on Monday, August 9th atBloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM.

10-Year Note (3.000) This yield has returned to my annual pivot at 2.999 with my weekly, daily andannual risky levels at 2.875, 2.871 and 2.813. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 3.479 and3.486 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. The US Treasury auctions $39billion in 2-Year notes today. The low yield for the move was 2.853 set on July 21st, and was afailed test of my 2.999 and 2.813 annual risky levels.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1181.4) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are $1172.5, $1140.9 and $1115.2with my semiannual pivot at $1218.7, and weekly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at $1222.3,$1260.8 and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21stwas a test of Junes monthly

resistance, as a significant top for gold.


Nymex Crude Oil ($78.97) Weekly and annual pivots are $77.89 and $77.05 with daily and monthly

pivots at $78.56 and $79.36 and semiannual risky level at $83.94. My quarterly value level is $56.63.



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The Euro (1.2990) My weekly value level is 1.2797 with a daily risky level at 1.3085. Monthly andquarterly value levels are 1.2035 and 1.1424 with semiannual risky level at 1.4733.


Daily Dow: (10,525) Daily and weekly value levels are 10,247 and 10,212 with my annual pivot at10,379, and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 10,558 and 10,891. The 200-day simple movingaverage is 10,399. My quarterly value level is 7,812 with my annual risky level at 11,235, which wastested at the April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked the end of the bear market rally that began in

March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear market that began in October 2007targeting 8,500 before 11,500.



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Dont Trust the Bounce Back in New Home Sales - If the National Association of Home Buildersviewed the 23.6% rise in new home sales in June as encouraging why wasnt that news reflected inthe NAHB Housing Market Index, which plunged to 14 from 17 in July? A reading of 330,000 units

annualized is still quite low. It seems that some of the new home sales were generated by move-upbuyers who sold their homes going to contract before April 30th. The buyer of their home got the taxcredit. The seller got the price he wanted then bought a new home in June. If you believe Fed ChiefBernanke it will be tough for the home builders to sustain momentum in an economy thats operatingunder unusual uncertainty. Mortgage rates may be historically low, but theres a lack of productionfinancing available from community banks. Inventories are light and declined to 210,000 units thethinnest since September 1968.

Richard Suttmeier Presentation Monday, August 9, 2010: I will be the speaker at the MarketTechnicians Association Meeting to be held at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM on Monday,August 9, 2010.

Home Prices are Set to Fall to the Levels of 1999 / 2000 Community Banks remain Vulnerable for Failure US Stocks have begun the Second Leg of a Multi-Year Bear Market "Buy and Trade' Replaces "Buy and Hold"

To attend please reply to [email protected] and include: first and last name, company name,address, email and phone number so that you can be pre-registered into the Bloomberg securitysystems for this event.

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

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The Dow is approaching my Semiannual Risky Level at 10,558