The Dual War On TerrorThe Dual War On Terror

James MadsenStanford University

2005 SIIS/IDL ConferenceApril 21-24

Yaroslavl Demidov State University

OverviewOverview

I.I. IntroductionIntroduction

II.II. Traditional v. New TerrorismTraditional v. New Terrorism

III.III. Classifying Chechnya and Classifying Chechnya and HezbollahHezbollah

IV.IV. The U.S. War on TerrorThe U.S. War on Terror

V.V. The Russian War on TerrorThe Russian War on Terror

VI.VI. The Need for CooperationThe Need for Cooperation

Solidarity?Solidarity?

Traditional v. New Traditional v. New TerrorismTerrorism

TRADITIONALTRADITIONAL

TERRORISMTERRORISM

1.1. PoliticalPolitical

2.2. LocalLocal

3.3. CoerciveCoercive

NEWNEW

TERRORISMTERRORISM

1.1. ReligiousReligious

2.2. TransnationalTransnational

3.3. CatastrophicCatastrophic

Chechnya v. HezbollahChechnya v. Hezbollah

Chechen terrorism: political, local, Chechen terrorism: political, local, and coerciveand coercive Dubrovka TheaterDubrovka Theater Beslan School No. 1Beslan School No. 1

Hezbollah’s terrorism: religious, Hezbollah’s terrorism: religious, transnational, and catastrophictransnational, and catastrophic

The problem with “catastrophic”The problem with “catastrophic”

The U.S. War on TerrorThe U.S. War on Terror

The U.S. v. HezbollahThe U.S. v. Hezbollah Political pressurePolitical pressure Economic pressureEconomic pressure Military pressureMilitary pressure

The U.S. & ChechnyaThe U.S. & Chechnya ““We resolutely condemn all terrorist acts and We resolutely condemn all terrorist acts and

senseless violence against civilians in senseless violence against civilians in Chechnya…”Chechnya…”

“…“…We continue to urge a political settlement of We continue to urge a political settlement of the conflict.”the conflict.”

The Russian War on The Russian War on TerrorTerror

Russia & HezbollahRussia & Hezbollah Iran/SyriaIran/Syria

Military aidMilitary aid Economic aidEconomic aid Political aidPolitical aid

Hezbollah’s benefitsHezbollah’s benefits Military aidMilitary aid Financial aidFinancial aid Geo-political aidGeo-political aid

Cost/benefit analysisCost/benefit analysis

The Russian War on Terror The Russian War on Terror (Con’t)(Con’t)

Russia v. ChechnyaRussia v. Chechnya Military offensiveMilitary offensive Economic commitmentEconomic commitment Political costsPolitical costs Future conflictFuture conflict

The Need for The Need for CooperationCooperation

Cooperation thus farCooperation thus far Diplomatic, intelligence, militaryDiplomatic, intelligence, military

An evolving threatAn evolving threat Chechnya and al QaedaChechnya and al Qaeda

Policy proposalsPolicy proposals U.S. – ground assistance, economic assistanceU.S. – ground assistance, economic assistance Russia – non-fungible aid, Middle Eastern Russia – non-fungible aid, Middle Eastern

influenceinfluence