The Dutch Propery Market in Focus 2013

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS

FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

HOUSING, BUSINESS, AGRICULTURAL & RURAL

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS

FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

FOREWORD

In 2013, the Dutch property market was in the news on several occasions, to shed light on some cheerful but also less exciting developments. For instance, due to tougher funding rules, home sales were at the lowest levels in years. But as market picked up in the second half of the year, a further decline in prices was prevented nonetheless. As far as commercial property is concerned, news messages mainly confirmed disappointing demand, as vacancy levels continued to climb in all segments. Still, the investment market did show some signs of recovery and positive changes presented themselves in the agricultural property market as companies meeting today’s requirements were sold reasonably fast, and at a good price too. Also, rising demand for land by dairy and arable farmers kept land prices steady last year.

The publication in front of you represents the facts and figures substantiating these messages and is seeking to make the property market more transparent. In fact, this is the very first edition presented by these departments, but that is not the only special thing about it. Those responsible for preparing this publication (they all work at Data & Research) have decided to use infographics rather than traditional statistics. As far as I am aware of, this method is unique to our sector. With the 50 ‘images’, NVM intends to visualise the main property themes in the year 2013. Most infographics are based on figures collected and processed by Data & Research on a daily basis.

As you are about to discover, this publication confirms there are many signs of a nascent recovery. According to expectations, the year 2014 will be all about unrelenting recovery. I take pride in presenting you with this publication, wishing you a very good and interesting read.

Ger HukkerChairman of the Netherlands Association of Real Estate Brokers and Real Estate Experts (NVM)

FOREWORD

INTRODUCTION

KEY FIGURES ECONOMY 2013

HOUSING

4.1 million owner-occupied homes in the Netherlands

Sales levels up as of spring 2013

High-priced houses are losing value much faster

Reviving confidence feeding price recovery

House prices back at 2003 levels

Fewer houses are offered for sale

Wide market slightly tighter in 2013

New supply easier to sell

Old supply takes longer to sell

Longer availability … a greater loss

New-build house sales hitting rock bottom

Slightly less new property available

New-build house prices have ceased to drop

More homes were let out in 2013

Rents have ceased to drop

Homeownership increasingly interesting, renting property more expensive

Housing costs are much more affordable …

… yet the maximum borrowing capacity is less

Problem groups in the mortgage market

Housing corporations selling property

BUSINESS

High supply levels … poorest demand

More property available

Greater letting opportunities

Sales opportunities slightly better

Longer supply term, transaction periods are steady

The number of available offices continues to rise

Major regional differences in vacancy rates

Aging offices are presenting a problem

The balance lost

Different demand in each sector and every year

G4 facing the same problems in the office market

Rents are under even more pressure

Many industrial premises are available

Structural supply goes up again

Logistics property: all that is gold does not glitter

More vacant retail property

Amsterdam has the strongest retail market

Also more structural retail vacancy

How retail sectors developed in 2013

Rents at the lowest level

Commercial property prices are much lower

Dutch investors still reticent

AGRICULTURAL & RURAL

A stiff agricultural property market

Some sectors did well

Agricultural property supply by sector

Different property market dynamics in each sector

More expensive milk quotas, the end is near

Modest recovery in converted farmhouses

Regionally different prices for grasslands

Price levels slightly up in farmland

OUTLOOK

NVM’S PROFILE

5

8

10

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

70

CONTENT

8 | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | 9

INTRODUCTION

The year 2013 will go down in history as a transitional year. For after almost five years of economic adversity, a turn presented itself at last. Very gently economy was shaking off the recession, consumer confidence has been growing ever since. Nevertheless, it is too soon to start cheering. For instance, last year saw the num-ber of bankruptcies and unemployment rates climb further. Also, the announcement of more cuts will do no good to the economy.

It is often claimed that the property market will benefit most from political steadiness. It looks like this statement was acknowledged in 2013. Especially as far as the housing market is involved, political measures (limiting mortgage interest relief, pushing up rents) have made things crystal-clear. And yet, not all measures seem to pay off. For instance, last year the demo-lition fund for vacant offices perished while banks were hardly interested in providing the so-called Blok Mortgage (for tackling outstanding debts).

In the housing market, serious attention was paid to financea-bility at both the micro and macro level. Even though the total mortgage debts of Dutch households dropped last year, also due to families’ additional repayments, taking out a mortgage has become more of a challenge. The maximum ‘loan-to-value’ will be restored in phases, back to 100% in 2018 (105% in 2013), maximum mortgage standards (Nibud standards) have been accentuated, the National Mortgage Guarantee will be adapted according to the average property value and banks will hardly use their ‘explain’ options or not at all. In return, having lower house prices and low interest rates means households’ monthly expenses are more affordable compared to the year 2009.

In addition to the housing market, confidence is also improving as far as commercial property is involved (offices, industrial buildings and retail property). This is mainly the case with ( foreign) investors, to whom property offers interesting invest-ment opportunities given today’s low prices. The occupational market, on the other hand, hardly saw any positive changes. Demand for commercial property not only suffered from bad economic conditions (unemployment, bankruptcies), but also from social trends such as the new way of working and e-com-merce. In addition, government cuts came with less use of office space, which was felt most strongly in The Hague and environs. Investors and banks are slowly but surely starting to realise that depreciating vacant premises is inevitable.

In 2013, the agricultural property market once again saw some positive as well as negative changes. The good news is that due to continuous increase in scale, production levels went up primarily in the dairy sector. It is where, also due to the approaching abolition of milk quotas, increase in sales is pivotal. As in previ-ous years, in 2013 the number of agricultural firms dropped once again. It is mainly because farmers gave up. Less positive news for the agricultural sector was the intensified livestock farming causing even more pressure. Points of interest included changes in the intended use in rural areas (from agricultural to rural living); quite often these are still very slow.

The general conclusion is this: 2013 was no better than the year before. But, even more importantly, it was not worse either. The year 2013 was all about getting back on track again, whereby recovery in the second half of the year gives us every reason to look forward to the future.


KEY FIGURES ECONOMY 2013

-5.0

-2.5

0.0

2.5

5.0

Economic growth compared to previous year in %

Source: Statistics Netherlands

Source: DNB, Hypotheekshop

Inflation in %

Capital market rate and 5-year mortgage interest

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13


’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Mortgage interest

Capital market rate


0

65

130

195

260

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’130.00

2.25

4.50

6.75

9.00

Job vacancies x1,000 Unemployment %

Source: Statistics Netherlands’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Consumer confidence Business confidence

Source: Statistics Netherlands’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

-4-3-2-1012345

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Household consumptionin % compared to previous year

Business investmentsin tangible assets in %

compared to previous year

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | HOUSING | 1312 | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

HO

USIN

GHOUSING

14 | HOUSING | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | HOUSING | 15

4,1 mln koopwoningen in Nederland

In Nederland staan zo'n 7,3 miljoen woningen. Hiervan is meer dan de helft een koopwoning. De overige woningen worden gehuurd. De meeste van deze huurwoningen zijn in bezit van een woningcor-poratie. Slechts 29% van de huurwoningen is in handen van particuliere beleggers. In internationaal opzicht is de particuliere huursector in Nederland relatief klein en de sociale huursector relatief groot. Langzaam maar zeker komt hierin verandering. De

laatste jaren neemt de sociale huursector in omvang af en groeit de omvang van de particuliere huursec-tor en de koopwoningsector. Overigens zijn binnen Nederland grote verschillen zichtbaar. Zo is in Amsterdam slechts 25% van de woningen een koopwoning, terwijl in een groot deel van Noord-Bra-bant het aandeel koopwoningen meer dan 70% bedraagt.

Percentage of owner-occupied homesof total stock in each municipality

< 50%

50% - 60%

60% - 70%

> 70%

Source: Statistics Netherlands, 2012

Percentage of owner-occupied homes of total stock in each municipality

Owner-occupied

56%

31%

Total7.3 mln homes

13%

Socialhousing

Privaterental

1,000

1,500

2,000

Herstel verkopen vanaf voorjaar 2013

Sinds 2009 bewegen de huizenverkopen zich op een zeer laag niveau. Het jaar 2013 vormt hierop geen uitzondering. Toch was vorig jaar sprake van een opvallend herstel.

Higher monthly housing costs as a result of new mortgage rules, effective as of 1 January 2013, urged people to buy a home fast before year-end 2012. The result: very few sales transactions inearly 2013.

But things started to change in spring. After that, more houses were sold every week than one might expect given trends from previous years.

’06

January ‘13 December ‘13

’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

148,819 148,268

128,154

94,809 95,897 88,985 85,509 87,404

... YET UNDENIABLE RECOVERY SINCE SPRING Number of homes sold on a weekly basis

(incl. those sold subject to approval)

Beyond expectations

Trend line

Worse than expected

Number of homes sold annually by NVM brokersHOME SALES ALREADY LOW FOR YEARS...

4.1 MILLION OWNER-OCCUPIED HOMES IN THE NETHERLANDS

SALES LEVELS UP AS OF SPRING 2013

The Netherlands is home to approximately 7.3 million residential premises, more than half of which are owner-occupied homes. Other homes are rented. Most rented houses belong to housing corporations. Only 29% of all rented houses are property of private investors. Internationally speaking, the private letting sector in the Netherlands is relatively small, unlike the social housing

sector which is relatively large. But little by little, things have started to change. In recent years, the social housing sector has been diminishing while the private sector and the owner-occupied sector are in fact picking up. Also, major differences exist across the Netherlands. For instance, in Amsterdam only 25% of all homes are owner-occupied homes, compared to over 70% in much of Noord Brabant.

Since 2009, home sales transactions have been at a very low level. The year 2013 was no exception. And yet, a notable recovery presented itself last year.


100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Dure woningtypen harder in prijs gedaald

Bestaande koopwoningen zijn sinds 2008 gemiddeld ruim 18% in prijs gedaald. Maar dure woningen zijn – zowel absoluut als ook procentueel – harder in prijs gezakt dan goedkope woningen. Een belangrijke oorzaak is het stagneren van de doorstroming. Hierdoor is de markt in de hogere prijssegmenten erg ruim geworden. Wat ook meespeelt zijn de verder aangescherpte hypotheekregels en het verdampen

van potentiële overwaarde. Voor kopers wordt het steeds moeilijker om een duur huis te financieren. De NVM verwacht dat in 2014 de prijzen op het huidige niveau zullen stabiliseren. De procentuele prijsdaling betreft de daling vanaf het hoogtepunt van de prijzen in het tweede kwartaal 2008 tot het dieptepunt in het derde kwartaal van 2013.

HIGH-PRICED HOMES LOSING VALUE MUCH FASTER COMPARED TO INEXPENSIVE ALTERNATIVES

‘06 ‘07

A peak inhouse prices

Maximum fallin prices:

Price movements per type of house in € x1,000

206

184

226

198

285

244

400

332

– 23.2%

–19.0%

–17.5%

–16.1%

–18.8%

167159

‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13

TERRACEDHOUSE

CORNER HOUSE

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

APARTMENT 40

60

80

100

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

Opleven vertrouwen voedt prijsherstel

Waar vroeger de woningmarktdynamiek vooral werd bepaald door macro-economische factoren (zoals leencapaciteit, werkloosheid en rente), is de woning-markt steeds meer een vertrouwensmarkt geworden. De Vereniging Eigen Huis meet elke maand het vertrouwen in de woningmarkt. De Eigen Huis Marktindicator blijkt een goede voorspeller van de ontwikkeling van de huizenprijzen. Wat opvalt, is dat

het sterke herstel van de woningprijzen eind 2009 geen fundament had in een opleving van het consumentenvertrouwen. Wat volgde was een tweede dip die dieper was en langer duurde dan de eerste. De meest recente opleving van de woningprijzen wordt wel gevoed door een positiever marktsentiment en lijkt daarmee structureel van aard.

MARKET SENTIMENTVEH (Homeowners’ Association) market indicator Prices of existing owner-occupied houses

compared to previous year

Source: NVM, Homeowners’ Association (in Dutch: Vereniging Eigen Huis or VEH)

TRANSACTION PRICES

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13

HIGH-PRICED HOUSES ARE LOSING VALUE MUCH FASTER

REVIVING CONFIDENCE FEEDING PRICE RECOVERY

Since 2008, the prices of existing owner- occupied homes have dropped by an average of over 18%. High-priced homes, however, have lost value even faster compared to inexpensive ones (in absolute and percentage terms). One of the main reasons are stagnating flows. As a result, the market in the higher price segments has become extensive indeed. Another factor are the even stricter mortgage rules

and the evaporating potential residual value. Financing an expensive home is becoming quite a serious challenge. As for 2014, NVM expects prices to stabilise at current levels. The price drop in percentage terms pertains to the decline after prices peaked in the second quarter of 2008 until they reached rock bottom in the third quarter of 2013.

Whereas previously the housing market dynamics was mainly determined by macroeconomic factors (e.g. borrowing capacity, unemployment and interest rate), today the housing market is becoming more of a market of trust. The Homeowners’ Association (in Dutch: Vereniging Eigen Huis) measures consumer confidence in this market on a monthly basis. The ‘Owner-occupied Home Market Indicator’ proves to be a sound

predictor of house price developments. One interesting detail is the fact that the strong recovery of house prices towards the end of 2009 was not due to rising consumer confidence. Yet another dip followed, even deeper and longer than the previous one. The latest housing market recovery, however, is fed by a more positive market sentiment and seems to be of a structural nature.


Huizenprijzen terug op niveau 2003

Huizenkopers hebben de afgelopen jaren gemiddeld meer voor hun huis betaald dan dat het nu nog waard is. Daarmee staan deze huizen ‘onder water ‘. Hoeveel jaar geleden lagen de woningprijzen op hetzelfde niveau als de huidige prijzen? Voor Nederland als geheel moeten we terug naar begin 2003, maar voor grote delen van Oost-Nederland moet men nog verder achteruit.

MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

In what year were house prices as high as in 2013?

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

PRICE LEVEL CONTINUES TO DROPPrice movements in the Netherlands in € x1,000

Transaction prices back at 2003 levels

‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09 ‘11 ‘13

200

225

175

250

0

100,000

150,000

50,000

LESS NEW SUPPLY

Daling aantal te koop staande woningen

In een goed functionerende markt houden de aanmeldingen (nieuw aangeboden woningen) en de afmeldingen (verkochte en ingetrokken woningen) elkaar redelijk in evenwicht. Het resultaat is dat het aantal woningen dat te koop staat, stabiel blijft. Voor het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis stonden in

Nederland gemiddeld 80.000 woningen te koop. Daarna ging het mis. Door vraaguitval verdubbelde het aanbod naar 170.000 woningen eind 2011. Het ruime aanbod heeft veel potentiële verhuizers ervan weerhouden om hun huis te koop te zetten. Het aantal nieuw aangeboden woningen was mede hierdoor dan ook erg laag in 2012 en 2013. Ironisch genoeg is het juist daardoor dat de negatieve trend van het stijgende aanbod is doorbroken. Als in 2014 de verkopen verder aantrekken, kan het enorme stuwmeer aan te koop staande woningen verder leeglopen.Sold

Withdrawn

For the first time since 2006, thenumber of new home listings is less than

those ‘withdrawn’ and ‘sold’ together

New home listings

‘13

For sale at year-end

’06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12

HOUSE PRICES BACK AT 2003 LEVELS FEWER HOUSES ARE OFFERED FOR SALE

In recent years, buyers have paid more for their homes than what they are worth today. It means these homes are now ‘underwater’. How many years ago were house prices the same as the current

prices? As for the Netherlands in general, we should travel back to the year 2003, but for large areas in East Netherlands we need to go back even more.

Under healthy market conditions, the number of announcements (newly listed homes for sale) and cancellations (houses sold or withdrawn) is well balanced. As a result, the number of homes offered for sale remains steady. Before the financial crisis presented itself, an average of 80,000 homes were available for sale in the Netherlands. But things went

wrong after that. Due to poorer demand, availability levels doubled reaching 170,000 residential premises at year-end 2011. Ample availability discouraged many people from putting their homes up for sale. Also because of that, the number of newly listed homes was very low in 2012 and again in 2013. Ironically, this is exactly why the negative trend of climbing supply levels was broken. Provided more sales transactions are entered into in 2014, the gigantic reservoir of houses available for sale might continue to drain.


Ruime markt in 2013 iets krapper

De NVM krapte-indicator geeft de verhouding weer tussen aanbod en transacties. In een normaal functionerende markt is deze verhouding 5 of 6, wat inhoudt dat er 5 of 6 keer zoveel woningen te koop staan als er maandelijks worden verkocht. In 2013 stond de krapte-indicator gemiddeld op 23, maar aan

het eind van het jaar lag de indicator al onder de 20. Dat de markt iets krapper is geworden, wordt niet alleen veroorzaakt door aantrekkende verkopen, maar ook door een kleiner aanbod woningen dat te koop staat.

5 5 7 11 12 15 17 16

6 6 8 14 14 18 20 18

7 7 10 18 18 23 24 23

12 13 18 35 35 41 48 45

6 6 7 12 15 20 24 23

TERRACED HOUSE

UNDER ORDINARY MARKET CONDITIONS EACH BUYER HAS 5 HOUSES TO CHOOSE FROM

Tight market conditions. Dotted line reveals tightness level 5.

CORNER HOUSE

SEMI-DETACHED

DETACHED

APARTMENT

TOTAL

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13

6 7 9 15 17 21 24 23

Nieuw aanbod verkoopt beter dan oud

Woningen die in 2013 te koop zijn gezet (nieuw aanbod), hebben gemiddeld genomen een flink lagere vraagprijs dan woningen die al langer te koop stonden. Dit houdt niet alleen verband met het aanbod zelf (in het oude aanbod zitten relatief veel vrijstaande huizen), maar ook met het feit dat veel mensen in 2013 hun huis voor een scherpe prijs te

koop hebben gezet. Huizen die in 2013 te koop zijn gezet, zijn dan ook sneller verkocht. In het oude aanbod staan helaas nog veel huizen 'te koop', waarbij de eigenaar de vraagprijs niet meer kan of wil verlagen en hij ook relatief weinig energie meer steekt in promotie. De meeste van deze woningen staan eind 2013 nog steeds te koop.

SUPPLY TRENDS PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS

New supply2013

Withdrawn/let out

Average house prices

NEWSUPPLY

EXISTINGSUPPLY

Sold

houses

houses

Total supply atyear-end 2013

€ 278,700

€ 247,000 € 188,400

€

€ 274,300

€ 209,500

128,600

172,800

162,500

44,6007,900

42,80040,300

Total supplyin early 2013

New supply2013

Withdrawn/let out Sold

Total supply atyear-end 2013

Total supplyin early 2013

The supply trends provide insight into the owner-occupied housing market in 2013. It represents the input of newly listed homes in 2013 (new supply, arrow top left) in the total housing stock available for sale. It also reflects how many houses that were offered for the first time in 2013 were actually sold (sold from new supply, arrow top right) and also how many old-supply houses were sold (sold from old supply, arrow bottom right). Old-supply and new-supply houses that were not sold in 2013 eventually make the total supply at year-end 2013 (arrow rightmost).At the end of the year corrections are made, which is why numbers do not fully correspond.

WIDE MARKET SLIGHTLY TIGHTER IN 2013 NEW SUPPLY EASIER TO SELL

The NVM ‘tightness indicator’ illustrates the supply-transaction ratio. In ordinary market conditions, this ratio is 5 or 6, which means 5 or 6 times as many homes are offered for sale as those sold on a monthly basis. In 2013, the indicator

revealed an average of 23, but towards the end of the same year this number had already dropped to 20. The market being slightly tighter is not only due to increas-ing sales transactions, but also because fewer houses are available for sale.

On average, houses that were put up for sale in 2013 (new supply) came with much lower asking prices compared to those that have been on the market for a much longer period of time. This is not only related to supply itself (old supply includes relatively many detached houses), but also due to the fact that in 2013 many people decided to offer their

houses at sharp prices. Hence, these houses were sold quicker. Unfortunately, old supply still has many houses ‘for sale’, the owners of which cannot or will not lower the asking price or they are invest-ing relatively little energy in promoting sales. Most of these houses were still available at year-end 2013.


Total numbersales

Supply

Apartment Apartment

Terraced House Terraced HouseCornerhouse

Cornerhouse

Semi-Detached

Semi-Detached

Detached Detached

30%

29%14%

14%

13%

30%

19%11%

15%

25%

162,485 87,404

Oud aanbod staat steeds langer te koop

De woningmarkt herstelt zich, maar niet elke verkoper profiteert hiervan. Alleen woningen die scherp zijn geprijsd en goed worden gepresenteerd, worden relatief snel verkocht. Zij hebben een korte verkooptijd. Daardoor blijft in 2013 de gemiddelde verkooptijd stabiel op 5 maanden. In het aanbod dat

Even in good times, the supply term exceeds the time required to sell. This is due to a different composi-tion. Supply includes many more detached houses

with more time required to sell and many fewer terraced houses with less time required to sell.

nog niet is verkocht, zitten veel woningen die al jarenlang te koop staan en waarvan de prijzen nauwelijks worden aangepast. Dit verklaart dat de looptijd van te koop staande woningen blijft stijgen en inmiddels de 14 maanden is gepasseerd.

Time on market in days is the number of days a home was offered for sale before exchanging owners.

Supply term is the average amount of time houses that have not yet exchanged owners are offered for sale.

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SUPPLY AND SALES

Supply Sold

Composition of houses offered and sold in 2013

Supply term shown in days

Time on market in days

’06’07’08’09’10’11’12’13

365

days

,1

year

8682

85

122

129

136

160

159

136

140

167

244

257282

367

428

Hoe langer te koop, hoe groter het verlies

Steeds duidelijker wordt een tweedeling zichtbaar: nieuw aangeboden woningen met een scherpe prijs versus woningen die al meer dan 3 jaar te koop staan. De kans dat woningen die lang te koop staan binnen een kwartaal worden verkocht, is gedaald tot

2%. Uiteindelijk geven woningen die meer dan drie jaar te koop hebben gestaan, 25% toe op de oorspron-kelijke vraagprijs. Waren deze woningen direct goed in de markt zijn gezet, dan zouden zij voor een veel betere prijs zijn verkocht.

Likelihood of selling a house in three months

-4.2%

-8.3%

-11.3%

-13.7%

-17.5%

-22.1%

-25.6%

24%

16%

13%

11%

8%

5%

2%

SELLING OPPORTUNITY

Average difference between sale price and asking price

Selling opportunity reveals the odds of selling a house in three months.For instance, a house that has been available for sale for 1 to 2 years,

has an 8% chance of exchanging owners within three months.

PRICE DIFFERENCE

1st to2nd Q.

to 1st Q.

2nd to3rd Q.

3rd to4th Q.

House availablefor 1 to 2 years

House availablefor 2 to 3 years

House availablefor more than

3 years

OLD SUPPLY TAKES LONGER TO SELL LONGER AVAILABILITY … A GREATER LOSS

The housing market is picking up, yet not every seller is receiving the benefits. Only houses offered at sharp prices and provided they are properly presented are sold within a relatively short amount of time (shorter selling time). Consequently, in 2013 the average time required to sell

a home remained steady at 5 months. Supply included many homes that have been available for sale for years and of which prices were hardly adjusted. It is why houses are available for longer and longer, currently beyond 14 months.

A divide is becoming increasingly visible: newly listed homes offered for sale at sharp prices versus homes that have been on the market for more than 3 years. The chance of selling homes that have been available for at least three years within

three months has tumbled down to 2%. Eventually, these houses are sold at 25% less than the original asking price. Had these houses been properly put on the market, they would have exchanged owners at much higher prices.


0

45,000

90,000

135,000

180,000

0

11,250

22,500

33,750

45,000

Aantal nieuwbouwverkopen op dieptepunt

Voor wat het aantal verkochte nieuwbouwwoningen betreft was 2013 het slechtste jaar sinds het begin van de kredietcrisis. Maar projectontwikkelaars en in nieuwbouw gespecialiseerde woningmakelaars zien in de tweede helft van het jaar een duidelijk herstel van de afzet optreden.

De markt voor nieuwbouwwoningen reageert heftiger op het marktsentiment en schommelingen in de economie dan de markt voor bestaande woningen. Als de voortekenen juist zijn en het marktsentiment structureel verbetert, dan ligt een verder herstel van de nieuwbouwmarkt in de lijn der verwachtingen.

TransactionsEXISTING PROPERTY

’11’10’09’08’07’06 ’12 ’13*

Source: Monitor Nieuwe Woningen (New Housing Monitor), NVM* Annual figures 2013 estimated new property

TransactionsNEW PROPERTY

Sold

Withdrawn

Newly listed

For sale at year-end

Aanbod nieuwbouw licht afgenomen

Waar in de bestaande bouw na 2008 het aantal te koop staande woningen sterk is opgelopen, heeft in de nieuwbouw deze ontwikkeling zich niet voorgedaan. Projectontwikkelaars konden aan het begin van de kredietcrisis makkelijker op de nieuwe marktsituatie reageren dan particulieren in de bestaande bouw. Dat konden zij door slechtlopende projecten van de markt te halen en nieuwe projecten

aan te bieden. Ook bij de tweede dip hebben ontwik-kelaars het nieuwe aanbod aangepast aan de tegenvallende verkopen. Het aantal nieuw aange-boden nieuwbouwwoningen lag dan ook historisch laag in 2013. Voor 2014 wordt een substantiële toename van zowel het aantal transacties als het aantal nieuw aangeboden woningen verwacht.

Source: Monitor Nieuwe Woningen (New Housing Monitor)* Figures 2013, estimated

PROPERTY DEVELOPERS RESPOND TO POOR DEMAND FOR NEW PROPERTY

‘13

Number of houses available at year-end remains steady more or less

’06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘120

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

*

NEW-BUILD HOUSE SALES HITTING ROCK BOTTOM SLIGHTLY LESS NEW PROPERTY AVAILABLE

As for the number of new-build premises sold, 2013 was definitely the worst year since the outbreak of the financial crisis. And yet, property developers and house agents specialising in new property saw sales levels clearly pick up in the second half of the year.

The market of new-build houses is react-ing more strongly to the market sentiment and economic fluctuations compared to the market of existing houses. If signs do not deceive us and provided market sentiment changes structurally, then continued recovery in the new development market may reasonably be expected.

While after 2008, the number of existing homes offered for sale rose impressively, this was not the case as far as new prem-ises are concerned. At the start of the financial crisis, it was easier for project developers to respond to the new market situation compared to private individuals in the existing property market. Such was possible by taking unsuccessful premises

off the market and offering new property instead. Even during the second dip, project developers made sure to adapt new supply to disappointing sales figures. Hence, the number of newly listed new houses was historically low in 2013. As for 2014, both the number of transactions and newly listed residential property are expected to rise significantly.


200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

-8%

0%

+3%

Prijsdaling nieuwbouwwoningen gestopt

In 2013 is de prijsdaling van nieuwbouwwoningen gestopt. De bestaande bouw daarentegen noteerde nog wel een kleine min, maar voor 2014 wordt ook hier een stabilisatie van de prijzen verwacht. Wanneer ingezoomd wordt op de prijsontwikkeling in

2013 is te zien dat in de eerste drie kwartalen de prijs van verkochte nieuwbouwwoningen nauwelijks lager is dan die in 2012, terwijl de verwachting is dat in het vierde kwartaal de prijs duidelijk boven het niveau van een jaar eerder uitkomt.

* New development figures in 2013 are preliminarySource: NVM and Monitor Nieuwe Woningen (New Housing Monitor)

EXISTING PROPERTY

NEW PROPERTY

Median house prices of new and existing property in € New houses are larger on average and come with more quality compared to existing alternatives. Hence, median house prices are higher.

PRICES CONSIDERABLY LOWER

PRICES HAVE CEASED TO DROP

Price movements compared to previous year in %

’06

’12 ’13

’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13*

Meer woningen verhuurd in 2013

Het aantal woningen dat te huur is aangeboden, is in de periode 2006-2012 maar liefst verdriedubbeld. Hiervoor kan een aantal redenen worden genoemd. Zo hebben steeds meer mensen hun woning tijdelijk te huur gezet, bijvoorbeeld als men de woning niet kwijtraakte, terwijl al wel een nieuw huis was gekocht. Verder groeide het aanbod om te voldoen aan de toenemende vraag naar huurwoningen. Door het herstel van de koopwoningmarkt in 2013 hebben steeds minder huiseigenaren hun huis te huur

aangeboden, waardoor het huuraanbod in 2013 met 3% is afgenomen. Het aantal verhuurde woningen is wel toegenomen, namelijk 18% in een jaar tijd. Tweederde van deze verhuurde woningen is een appartement. Wellicht ten overvloede kan worden vermeld dat het hier niet om corporatiewoningen gaat, maar om particuliere woningen die door makelaars worden aangeboden en in verhuur zijn genomen.

Supply at year-end

* Preliminary figures

Let out

HOUSES OFFERED AND LET OUT

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13*

8,000

8,500

9,500

12,200

13,000

14,400

17,500

20,600

3,500

3,400

5,300

6,600 6,600

7,800

10,100 9,800

NEW-BUILD HOUSE PRICES HAVE CEASED TO DROP MORE HOMES WERE LET OUT IN 2013

In 2013, new-build property prices ceased to drop. Existing property levels, however, did reveal a tiny fall, but for 2014 prices are expected to stabilise in this market as well. Studying the 2013 price movements

in detail, we know that in the first three quarters of the year, the price of new-build property sold was hardly any lower than that of 2012, while prices are expected to clearly exceed the levels of a year earlier.

The number of homes available for rent has tripled from 2006 to 2012, for different reasons. For instance, more and more people have temporarily offered their homes for rent, including those failing to sell their homes, while in between they have already moved into new property. Also, supply levels climbed to meet the rising demand for rented houses. As the owner-occupied housing market picked

up in 2013, in fact fewer owners decided to offer their homes for rent, pushing supply levels down by 3% last year. The number of residential premises let out did rise though, by no less than 18% in one year. Two-thirds of rented houses are apartments. Perhaps needless to say that these do not belong to housing corporations, but rather they are private premises offered by brokers for rent.


Huurprijzen dalen niet verder

De ontwikkeling van de huurprijzen volgt in grote lijnen de ontwikkeling van de prijzen op de koopwon-ingmarkt, namelijk stijgende prijzen voor het begin van de kredietcrisis, gevolgd door een flinke dip in 2009. Maar sinds 2011 doet zich een nieuwe situatie voor. Waar de prijzen op de koopwoningmarkt een verdere daling te zien geven, blijven de huurprijzen zich op ongeveer hetzelfde niveau bewegen. Het

aantrekken van de huurmarkt vormt de belangrijk-ste reden. Ook in 2013 zijn de huurprijzen zo goed als stabiel gebleven. Het huurprijsniveau ligt rond de € 8,80 per vierkante meter per maand.Huurprijzen zijn gebaseerd op door makelaars verhuurde woningen, exclusief servicekosten, waarbij gestoffeerde/gemeubileerde huurwoningen niet zijn meegenomen.

Rents are based on houses let out by NVM brokers, exclusive of service charges,whereby (fully)furnished rented houses are not included in the calculation of prices

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

RENTS HAVE CEASED TO DROP

Square meter prices of rented homes

In 2009 rents dropped partly as more houses were let out at the bottom end of the market.

Rent levels by region in 2013AmsterdamHet GooiUtrecht The Hague GroningenDen BoschEindhovenRotterdamArnhemNijmegenHengelo/EnschedeZuid-Limburg

Median pricesof rented houses

€ 1,330 € 1,060

€ 950 € 1,020

€ 760 € 900

€ 830 € 720 € 730 € 770 € 720

€ 730

Median m2-pricesof rented houses

€ 13.60 € 11.00 € 10.20

€ 9.90 € 8.90 € 8.60

€ 8.50 € 8.40 € 8.30 € 8.00 € 7.10

€ 7.10

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

RENTS HAVE CEASED TO DROP HOMEOWNERSHIP INCREASINGLY INTERESTING, RENTING PROPERTY MORE EXPENSIVE

80

90

100

110

120

Kopen goedkoper, huren steeds duurder

De prijzen van koopwoningen zijn de afgelopen jaren scherp gedaald. Tegelijkertijd zijn de prijzen van sociale huurwoningen fors gestegen. Dat betekent dat de woonlasten in de koopsector vergelijkbaar zijn aan

de woonlasten in de sociale huursector. In sommige regio's zijn de woonlasten van koopwoningen zelfs lager dan die van sociale huurwoningen. Kopen wordt dus steeds aantrekkelijker.

RENT

PURCHASE

PURCHASE PRICES DOWN, RENTS UPIndexed price movements of the social housing market and owner-occupied housing market

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14*

*estimateSource: Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, NVM

On the whole, the development of rents follows that of prices in the owner-occupied housing market: climbing prices prior to the outbreak of the financial crisis, followed by a serious fall back in 2009. Since 2011, however, a new situation has presented itself. Whereas

prices in the owner-occupied market continued to drop, rents remained at almost the same levels. One of the main reasons has been the letting market’s recovery. In 2013 rents were once again steady, as rent levels reached € 8.80 per square metre per month.

The prices of owner-occupied homes have fallen significantly in recent years. But at the same time, prices paid for social housing have increased impressively. Hence, homeowners’ monthly housing

costs are becoming quite similar to those renting homes. In fact, in some regions home owners’ housing costs are even lower. Purchasing a home is becoming increasingly interesting.


50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

... maar leencapaciteit verslechterd

Elk jaar stelt het Nibud nieuwe hypotheeknormen vast. Die geven aan welk percentage van het inkomen kan worden besteed aan woonlasten. Door daling van de koopkracht zijn de percentages de afgelopen jaren steeds naar beneden bijgesteld.

Inmiddels is de maximale hypotheek voor een koper met een modaal inkomen circa 8% lager dan in 2010. Voor andere inkomensgroepen ligt dit percentage tussen 8 en 15%.

BORROWING CAPACITY BY INCOME GROUP

Borrowing capacity calculated for single earners based on a 100% annuity mortgage loan

DIFFERENCEBorrowing capacity difference

between 2010 and 2014

€25,000 -11%

-11%

-14%

-15%

-8%

-8%

-8%

20102014

€30,000

€35,000

€40,000

€45,000

€50,000

€55,000

Source: Nibud (National Institute for Family Finance Information), processed by NVM

Betaalbaarheid woonlasten verbeterd...

Iemand die in 2013 een tussenwoning heeft gekocht, betaalt per maand gemiddeld 136 euro minder aan netto hypotheeklasten dan wanneer hetzelfde huis in

* Assuming a 100% annuity repayment mortgage. The latter is obligatory as of 2013, but it was not yet common in 2011. If for the year 2011 a 50% interest-only mortgage is assumed, the net monthly housing costs

would still be similar to those in 2013. The main difference is that in 2013 the house will have been paid for entirely after 30 years.

2011 was gekocht*. Dit komt niet alleen door de lagere woningprijzen, maar ook door de sterk gedaalde hypotheekrente.

€

€

€

€

€

€

€

€

€

€

€

CHECKBOOK TERRACED HOUSE

Source: Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, NVM

… YET THE MAXIMUM BORROWING CAPACITY IS LESSHOUSING COSTS ARE MUCH MORE AFFORDABLE …

For those who bought a terraced house in 2013, housing expenses will be an average of EUR 135 less every month compared to the same house bought in 2011.* It is not

only because house prices have dropped, but also due to lower mortgage interest rates.

Every single year, Nibud (National Institute for Family Finance Information) lays down new mortgage standards, indicating which income percentage may be spent on housing expenses. As purchasing power diminished, these

percentages were adjusted downwards in recent years. Now the maximum mortgage for modal income groups is approximately 8% lower than in 2010. As for other income groups, percentages are anywhere between 8 and 15%.


Sales transactionsin 2013

110,090333

6,980870

1,650260620450270450

1,490570350530

Corporaties stoten woningbezit af

Van alle in 2013 gerealiseerde particulier verkopen had 11% betrekking op door corporaties verkochte huurwoningen (uitpondingen). Eén op de vijf huurwoningen is verkocht aan de zittende huurder. Het percentage uitpondingen verschilt sterk per gemeente. In Zuidplas en Amsterdam is rond 30% van de verkochte woningen aan particulieren een uitponding, terwijl in Rotterdam dit percentage slechts rond 11% ligt. Daar wordt echter veel corporatiebezit aan beleggers verkocht. Het zijn met name corporaties die in financiële problemen zijn gekomen, die hun bezit verkopen. In woonwijken met relatief veel uitpondingen kunnen de vaak hoge kortingen die worden gegeven tot grote problemen leiden. Particuliere woningbezitters die hun huis willen verkopen, zijn vaak genoodzaakt hun vraagprijs fors te laten zakken.

MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCESSold off in individual units by municipality in %

0% - 1%

1% - 5%

5% - 20%

20% - 40%

> 40%

Source: land registry, private transactions only

MunicipalityNederlandZuidplasAmsterdamZoetermeerEindhovenHuizenDeventerVelsenHollands KroonDen HelderGroningenPurmerendNoordoostpolderHengelo

Sold off inindividual units

11%31%29%27%24%20%20%19%19%18%18%17%17%17%

Of which tositting tenants

20%50%10%36%12%

6%52%31%27%33%12%17%30%29%

HOUSING CORPORATIONS SELLING PROPERTY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

1 2

43

Probleemgroepen op de hypotheekmarkt

Naast het feit dat er minder kan worden geleend, heeft een steeds groter wordende groep consumenten veel moeite om een hypotheek te krijgen. Het gaat dan om een toenemend aantal huishoudens zonder vast arbeidscontract (1). De hypotheekadviseur moet met goede argumenten komen om toestemming te krijgen om middels een ‘explain’-hypotheek van de hypotheeknormen af te wijken (2). Daarnaast zijn er steeds meer huishoudens met een restschuld, dat wil

zeggen een woning die minder waard is dan de hypotheek. Het aantal huishoudens met een restschuld is gestegen van 500.000 in 2011 naar rond 1 miljoen in 2013. Bij jonge huishoudens is dit probleem het grootst (3). Tot slot kampen steeds meer huishoudens met betalingsachterstanden op hun hypotheek en zit een verhuizing er voorlopig nietin (4).

NUMBER OF INDEPENDENTPROFESSIONALS UP BY ONE-THIRD

YOUNG PEOPLE HAVE DEBTS

’06

up to 35 years 36-45 years

... actively in search of a house

... with an outstanding debt

46-60 years > 60 years

’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13*

*Estimate

Independent professionalsand flexible contracts x1,000

INDEPENDENT PROFESSIONAL

FLEXIBLE CONTRACT

Source: AFM, Amweb, Volkskrant, processed by NVMSource: Statistics Netherlands

Source: Woon 2012, ASRE Source: BKR (Credit Registration Office) Mortgage Barometer

EXPLAIN SHARE MUCH LOWER

Explain mortgages granted in %

Population group percentage ...

MORE ARREARS IN PAYMENT

Households with mortgage arrears

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

639 819

599 780

57

29

12 3

3421

11 7

PROBLEM GROUPS IN THE MORTGAGE MARKET

In addition to less borrowing capacity, a growing group of consumers are having difficulty taking out a mortgage. These households are lacking permanent employment contracts (1). The mortgage advisor needs to come up with some very strong arguments in order to deviate from the mortgage standards, using a so-called explain mortgage (2). In addition, more

and more households have outstanding debts, which means their houses are worth less than the mortgage loan itself. This number has gone up from 500,000 back in 2011 to about 1 million in 2013. It is a serious problem particularly among young households (3). Also, increasingly more households are in arrears but for now they are unable to move house (4).

Of all private transactions concluded in 2013, 11% involved rented houses sold by housing corporations (sold off in individ-ual units). One in five rented houses was sold to the sitting tenant. The number of houses sold individually strongly depends on the municipality involved. In Zuidplas and Amsterdam, about 30% of all houses were sold off in individual units, compared to 11% in the city of Rotterdam. Although in this city, many housing corporation homes are sold to investors. These are mainly corporations facing financial diffi-culty. In residential areas with relatively many houses sold off individually, the

usually high discounts offered can cause major problems. Private homeowners who wish to sell their property, are often forced to lower their asking prices considerably.

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | BUSINESS | 3534 | HOUSING | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

BU

SIN

ESS

BUSINESS

36 | BUSINESS | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | BUSINESS | 37

Te veel aanbod en te weinig vraag

Ondanks het feit dat de belangrijkste segmenten van de markt voor commercieel vastgoed (kantoren, bedrijfsruimten en winkels) qua structuur en omvang sterk uiteenlopen, hebben zij gemeen dat sinds het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis de vraag- en aanbod-

verhoudingen steeds verder uit balans zijn geraakt. Zo is het aanbod van kantoren bijna negen keer groter dan het aantal vierkante meters dat in 2013 werd verhuurd en verkocht. Bij bedrijfsruimten en winkels is de verhouding wat gunstiger.

Stock, supply andtake-up in 2013in millionsquare metres

OFFICE S

PACE

Stock

Supply

Take-up

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

Stock

Supply

Supply

RETAIL S

PACE

Stock

Take-up

Take-

up

498

3.7

230

15

31

2.3 0.4

0.9

HIGH SUPPLY LEVELS … POOREST DEMAND MORE PROPERTY AVAILABLE

Even though the main segments of the commercial property market (offices, industrial spaces and retail property) are quite different in terms of structure and size, they are alike in the sense that since the outbreak of the financial crisis, demand and supply ratios have been off

balance more and more. For instance, supply of offices is almost nine times as high as the number of square metres let out or sold in 2013. Ratio is slightly more favourable as far as industrial spaces and retail property are involved.

Aantal aangeboden objecten toegenomen

De markt moest in 2013 toezien hoe het aantal aangeboden objecten verder toenam. De toename van het aantal objecten was echter kleiner dan in 2012, zowel absoluut als procentueel. Hoewel in alle deelmarkten het aantal objecten vorig jaar omhoog ging, was de stijging het sterkst bij de winkels. Voor

een groot aantal objecten kon vorig jaar geen nieuwe gebruiker worden gevonden. Meer dan de helft van de objecten die eind 2012 werd aangeboden stond eind 2013 nog te huur of te koop, vrijwel evenveel als in de periode 2011-2012.

OFFICE SPACE

PROPERTY FLOWS IN FOCUS

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

RETAIL SPACE

New supplyin 2013

Withdrawn in 2013

7,660

12,916

607

2,874 297 1,697

14,130

8,048

146 825

8,101

12,162

2,597

676 357 1,006

13,070

7,008

706 1,851

5,349

6,587

1,442

406 84 963

7,376

3,480

177 1,488

New

Old

Soldin 2013

Let outin 2013

Unaltered

Unaltered

Supply atyear-end 2013

Supply at year-end 2012

Unaltered

In 2013, the commercial property market saw the number of premises being offered rise even further. Although last year this number went up in all submarkets, it did climb most strongly as far as retail property is involved. Many premises did

not welcome new users as more than half the premises available at year-end 2012 were still offered for rent or sale towards the end of 2013. This is almost as many as in the 2011-2012 period.


Verhuurkans verbeterd

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

RETAIL SPACE

11.7%

13.9%

7.8%

6.2%

39.6% (2012: 36.4%)45.9% (2012: 45.6%)

3.4%

3.9%

2.8%

4.4%

Van het aanbod dat in het laatste kwartaal van 2012 op de markt kwam, werd een groter deel binnen een jaar verhuurd dan in dezelfde periode een jaar eerder. Anders gezegd: de verhuurkansen van commercieel vastgoed zijn in 2013 enigszins verbeterd. Niettemin ondervond de afzet van

leegstaande kantoorruimten veel problemen. Slechts een kwart van de kantoorobjecten die in het vierde kwartaal van 2012 op de markt kwam, werd in 2013 verhuurd. De winkelmarkt deed het echter een stuk beter. Vorig jaar werd bijna 40% van het ‘nieuwe’ aanbod verhuurd of verkocht, 6% meer dan in 2012.

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2nd

1st

3rd

4th

Let out within 4 quartersStill available after 4 quarters

New supply Q4 2012 let out in … quarter

New supply Q4 2012 let out in … quarter

Withdrawn/sold

Withdrawn/sold

OFFICE SPACE

8.0%

8.8%

4.6%

4.1%

25.4% (2012: 24.9%)54.6% (2012: 54.9%)

4.5%

4.5%

4.2%

6.8%

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

New supply Q4 2012 let out in … quarter Withdrawn/sold



12.4%

10.7%

6.0%

5.1%

34.3% (2012: 30.7%)49.5% (2012: 49.7%)

3.6%

4.0%

3.1%

5.4%

GREATER LETTING OPPORTUNITIES

Of all the premises that joined the market in the last quarter of 2012, more were let out in one year compared to the same period a year before. In other words: the letting opportunities of commercial property were slightly more promising in 2013. Nonetheless, selling vacant office

spaces presented quite a few challenges. Only one quarter of office buildings that were put on the market in the fourth quarter of 2012 were actually let out in 2013. The retail market did a lot better as almost 40% of the ‘new’ supply was let out or sold last year.

5.3%

5.0%

4.2%

2.8%

17.3% (2012: 16.3%)59.2% (2012: 61.2%)

5.4%

6.7%

5.4%

6.1%

7.0%

3.0%

3.5%

3.0%

16.5% (2012: 13.4%)59.6% (2012: 61.8%)

4.3%

4.3%

7.4%

7.8%

Ook kans op verkoop iets beter

De verkoop van commercieel vastgoed verliep in 2013 duidelijk stroever dan de verhuur. Toch gaat het ook op de koopmarkt beter dan in 2012, zij het dat de

verbetering klein is. Net als in het huursegment is ook in het koopsegment de kantorenmarkt hekkensluiter.

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Sold within 4 quartersStill available after 4 quarters


INDUSTRIAL SPACE

RETAIL SPACE

New supply 4Q 2012 sold in … quarter Withdrawn/let out

New supply 4Q 2012 sold in … quarter Withdrawn/let out

6.8%

4.5%

3.7%

1.1%

16.1% (2012: 12.2%)59.9% (2012: 57.3%)

7.1%

4.5%

5.1%

7.3%

1st

2nd

3rd

4th


OFFICE SPACENew supply 4Q 2012 sold in … quarter Withdrawn/let out

SALES OPPORTUNITIES SLIGHTLY BETTER

In 2013, selling commercial property was clearly more of a challe nge compared to the letting market. Nevertheless, the purchasing market too has been doing

better than in 2012. As in the rented segment, the office market is also the last on the list in the purchasing segment.


Looptijd en transactieduur

Sinds het uitbreken van de crisis duurt het steeds langer voordat het commerciele vastgoedaanbod door de markt wordt opgenomen. Daarnaast staat het aanbod steeds langer te huur of

te koop.Van de drie deelmarkten presteert de kantorenmarkt het slechtste en doet de winkelmarkt het het best.

365

days

,

1 ye

ar

Supply term in days Time required to sell in days

Time required to let out in days





INDUSTRIAL SPACE

OFFICE SPACE

RETAIL SPACE

‘13 ‘12 ‘11 ‘10 ‘09

‘13 ‘12 ‘11 ‘10 ‘09

‘13 ‘12 ‘11 ‘10 ‘09

389

464

498

541

591

192

234

254

246

257

187

233

242

224

239

458

543

586

630678

195

236 284

276

252

182

246

252

258

262

365429

433

479

514

202203

217

263

263

173

210200

205

206

The supply term is the average number of days premises are o�ered that have not yet been sold or let out.

The time required to sell or let out propertyis the average number of days premises are o�ered before these are sold or let out.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Aanbod van kantoren neemt nog steeds toe

Ondanks het feit dat in 2013 nauwelijks kantoren in aanbouw werden genomen, werd de markt opnieuw geconfronteerd met een verruiming van het aanbod, dat wil zeggen een toename van het aantal vierkante meters kantoorruimte dat direct beschikbaar is voor de verhuur of verkoop. De toename werd voor een belangrijk deel veroorzaakt door een vermindering van het ruimtegebruik, zowel bij bedrijven als bij instellingen. Daarbij speelden behalve Het Nieuwe Werken ook kostenbesparingen een belangrijke rol.

OFFICE SPACE BY PROVINCE

StockSupply

–’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13 –’09 ’13

Zuid-Holland

Gelderland

Noord-Holland

Overijssel

Utrecht

Limburg

FlevolandFriesland

Drenthe

Groningen

Zeeland

Noord-Brabant

Office space in m2 x million

LONGER SUPPLY TERM, TRANSACTION PERIODS ARE STEADY

Due to poorer demand for commercial property, letting out/selling offices, retail outlets or industrial spaces is taking longer. Transaction periods, however, seem to have stabilised. In 2012 and 2013 it took an average of 8 months from the moment a property was offered for rent or sale, to the day on which transaction took

place. Prior to the financial crisis, this period was 2.5 months shorter, however supply includes many premises that have been on the market for quite some time, pushing supply terms even further in 2013. Office space in particular is usually available for a long period of time.

THE NUMBER OF AVAILABLE OFFICES CONTINUES TO RISE

Even though hardly any offices were under construction in 2013, once again the market met up with rising supply levels, which means more office square metres were immediately available for rent or sale. Rise to a great extent followed from less use of space, in companies as well as organisations. In addition to the new way of working, cuts mattered as well.


Municipalities withhigh vacancy ratesWinterswijkHeemstedeLochemNieuwegeinOuder-AmstelKerkradeGilze en RijenStichtse VechtCapelle a/d IJsselAmstelveenRijswijkAlmereGoudaBestHoogezand-SappemeerEmmenSpijkenisseHelmondWeespVeenendaal

Municipalities withlow vacancy rates VeendamWageningenHardenbergUtrechtse HeuvelrugMoerdijkTerneuzenMaassluisNoordoostpolderDuivenGoes

Vacancy levels, in %

0.91.11.61.61.72.32.32.82.93.1

ValkenswaardVlissingenHarderwijkRijssen-HoltenDe Ronde VenenOud-BeijerlandGorinchemVughtKatwijkBoxtel

4.14.64.74.94.95.15.25.65.76.1

Regionaal grote verschillen leegstand

Naast gemeenten met buitensporig veel aanbod van leegstaande en nog te verhuren kantoren zijn er gelukkig ook gemeenten die nauwelijks last hebben van leegstand. Het is dus niet overal kommer en kwel. Gemeenten in ons land met veel kantorenaan-bod zijn vooral te vinden in de Randstad.

Daar is in het verleden ook het meest gebouwd. De hier vermelde percentages geven de verhouding weer tussen het direct beschikbare aanbod en de totale voorraad. Eind 2013 omvatte de kantorenvoor-raad in ons land 49 miljoen m2. Daarvan stond 16% leeg.

Vacancylevels, in %

39.334.634.532.031.931.230.428.928.428.027.827.827.426.424.924.424.423.823.423.4

MAJOR REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN VACANCY RATES

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Veroudering van kantoren probleem

Het leegstandprobleem in Nederland wordt verzwaard door het feit dat veel kantoorgebouwen die te huur of te koop staan, niet meer voldoen aan de gestelde eisen. Vooral het gegeven dat bijna tweederde van het totale aanbod van kantoren ouder is dan 18 jaar, is een complicatie. Voor kantoorgebruikers die op zoek zijn naar een modern onderkomen wordt het echter steeds moeilijker om een geschikte plek te vinden. Er wordt immers door projectontwikkelaars minder nieuw-bouw gerealiseerd.

Veel gemeenten hebben een rem op nieuwbouw gezet, terwijl ook financiers en beleggers een afwachtende houding hebben aangenomen.

2013

‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13

2005 2000 1995

2010

3-7 year

0-2 year

8-12 year 13-17 year 18+ year

6 7.5 20.5 65.5

‘06

NEW-BUILD OFFICESConstruction volume for the open market x1,000 m2

Supply by age, in %

Year of construction

OLD OFFICES

0.5

AGING OFFICES ARE PRESENTING A PROBLEM

In addition to municipalities with many vacant offices and offices for rent, vacancy was hardly an issue in some municipalities. Sorrow and grief did not hit the entire country. Most Dutch municipalities with high office supply levels can be found in the Randstad area.

It is where most premises were built in the past. The percentages shown illustrate the ratio between the immediately available supply and total stock. At year-end 2013, approximately 16.7% of office stock was available for rent or sale in the Netherlands.

Vacancy in the Netherlands is even more challenging as many office buildings offered for rent or sale are no longer meeting today’s requirements. Especially the fact that almost two-thirds of the total office supply is at least 18 years old, is a complication.

For office users in search of modern premises, finding a suitable place is becoming increasingly difficult. It is because property developers are building fewer premises. Many municipalities have put restraints on new development, while financiers and investors too have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.


Balans zoek

De vraag naar kantoorruimte, ofwel het volume van huur- en kooptransacties op de vrije markt, maakt al enige tijd een glijvlucht omlaag. Ook in 2013 ging de opname van kantoormeters opnieuw naar beneden. Daardoor raakte de verhouding tussen vraag en aanbod verder uit balans. Hoewel alle delen van ons land hiermee worden geconfronteerd, is de kloof het grootst in Drenthe, Flevoland en Friesland.

Er zijn verschillende oorzaken van de tegenvallende vraag naar kantoren, zoals de haperende economie en de noodzaak om efficient en kostenbesparend te werken. Daarnaast speelt een rol dat de overheid veel minder kantoorruimte huurt dan enkele jaren geleden, toen zij nog goed was voor een aandeel van bijna 20% in de vraag naar kantoren

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

Office supply and demand in m² x1,000

12

5

5

4445

139

11

255

190

3

107

18

139

131

94384

646

1,107

197

2,117

2,422

30

765

256

Noord-Brabant

Zuid-Holland

Supply

Demand

Gelderland

Noord-Holland

Overijssel

Utrecht

Limburg

Flevoland

Friesland

Drenthe

Groningen

Zeeland

THE BALANCE LOST

Vraag verschilt per sector en per jaar

Er zijn verschillende oorzaken van de tegenvallende vraag naar kantoren, zoals de haperende economie en de noodzaak om efficient en kostenbesparend te

werken. Daarnaast speelt een rol dat de overheid veel minder kantoorruimte huurt dan enkele jaren geleden, toen zij nog goed was voor een aandeel van bijna 20% in de vraag naar kantoren

2006

2013

Demand for offices, in %

Demand for offices,in %

15

11

10

94444

22

24

11

19

10

10

9

76

4

33

1

19

9

Publ

ic ad

mini

-

strat

ion,

def

ence

and

statut

ory

socia

l ins

uran

ce

Publ

. adm

in.,

defe

nce

and

stat.

soci

al in

sura

nce

Bank andinsurancesector

Bank andinsurance

sector

Industry and

public utilities

Indu

stry

and

publ

ic u

tiliti

es

Education,

healthcare and

veterinary

services

Education,

healthcare and

veterinary

services

Fina

ncia

l eco

n.bu

sine

ss s

ervi

ces

Financial econ.

business services

Com

pute

rin

dustr

y

Computer

industry

Transp

ortati

on

and s

torag

e

Tran

spor

tatio

nan

d sto

rage

Construct

ion indus-

try, firm

s of fit

ters

Constr

uctio

n ind

us-

try, fi

rms o

f fitte

rs

Trading and re-

pair companies

Trad

ing

and

re-

pair

com

pani

es

Communication

Commun

icatio

n

Otherbusinessservices

Otherbusinessservices

Other

organisationsand

companies

Other

organisationsand

companies

DIFFERENT DEMAND IN EACH SECTOR AND EVERY YEAR

Demand for office space, or rather the lease and sales transaction volumes in the open market, has been gliding down for quite some time now. In 2013, once again fewer office square metres were taken up, pushing supply and demand

ratios off balance even more. Although the entire country was dealing with the same problem, the gap was greatest in the provinces of Drenthe, Flevoland and Friesland.

There are various causes of the disap-pointing demand for offices. These include the faltering economy and also the urge to proceed efficiently and economically. In addition, the authorities have been

using considerably less office space compared to previous years. Back then they represented a share of almost 20% in demand for offices.


10

15

20

25

10

15

20

25

10

15

20

25

10

15

20

25

G4 zelfde problemen kantorenmarkt

Net als in de rest van Nederland hebben ook de vier grote steden te maken met veel leegstand en een aarzeling in de vraagontwikkeling. Vooral Rotterdam heeft in 2013 de vraag naar kantoren flink zien teruglopen. Amsterdam moest eveneens toezien hoe

de belangstelling van huurders en kopers vermind-erde. Maar de teruggang bleef binnen de perken. Opvallend is dat Utrecht erin slaagde om het transactievolume te handhaven. Bovendien ging daar ook het aanbod omlaag.

Amsterdam

Rotterdam

Take-up in m2 x1,000 Supply in m2 x1,000 Vacancy levels, in %

The Hague

Utrecht

’11

’11

’12 ’13

’12 ’13

’11 ’12 ’13

’11 ’12 ’13

’11 ’12 ’13

’11 ’12 ’13

’11 ’12 ’13

’12 ’13

’11 ’12 ’13 ’11 ’12 ’13

’11’11 ’12 ’13

’11 ’12 ’13

203 214 188 1,038 1,038 1,108

45 73 67

462 522 592

117 66 46

574 639 724

65 73 70

330 407 401

G4 FACING THE SAME PROBLEMS IN THE OFFICE MARKET

100

120

140

160

180

200

Huurprijzen verder onder druk

De problemen op de kantorenmarkt beginnen nu ook duidelijk zichtbaar te worden in de huurprijzen. De daling, die in 2008 is begonnen, heeft het afgelopen jaar versterkt doorgezet. Niet alleen bestaande kantoren moesten een veer laten, ook in het

nieuwbouwsegment stond de huurprijs onder druk. Overigens geven de cijfers nog geen compleet beeld, aangezien bij de berekening ervan geen rekening is gehouden met ‘incentives’, zoals huurvrije perioden en andere tegemoetkomingen.

EXISTING PROPERTY

NEW PROPERTY

Median office rents in € per m2 per annum RENTS MUCH LOWER IN PREVIOUS YEAR

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

163

130

138

113

RENTS ARE UNDER EVEN MORE PRESSURE

Like the rest of the Netherlands, the four major Dutch cities of Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht are also facing high vacancy rates and hesitant trends in demand. In 2013, the city of Rotterdam in particular saw demand for offices drop alarmingly. In Amsterdam,

lessees and buyers were less interested although decline was limited in the Dutch capital. Interestingly enough, Utrecht did succeed in protecting its transaction volumes and also, availability levels dropped in this part of the Netherlands.

Today, the problems facing the office market are also becoming clearly visible in rents. The decline that set off back in 2008 continued at greater speed. Not only the existing offices had to settle for less,

rents were also under pressure in the new buildings segment. Figures, however, fail to provide a complete image as incentives (e.g. rent-free periods and other benefits) have not been taken into consideration.


0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Bedrijfsruimtemarkt kampt met veel aanbod

Hoewel het producentenvertrouwen vorig jaar sterk verbeterde, is het aanbod van bedrijfsruimte voor het vijfde jaar op rij toegenomen. Net als op de kantoren-markt heeft ook de bedrijfsruimtemarkt met een verouderde voorraad te maken. Bovendien is het

lastiger om voor een leegstaand bedrijfspand een nieuwe gebruiker te vinden. Want anders dan bij kantoren en winkels, zijn veel bedrijfsgebouwen gebruikersspecifiek, dat wil zeggen op maat gebouwd.

REGIONAL DIFFERENCESIndustrial space in m2 x1,000 Supply starting at 100 m2 Take-up starting at 100 m2

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

’11’12’13

Noord-Brabant

Zuid-Holland

Gelderland

Noord-Holland

Overijssel

Utrecht

Limburg

Flevoland

Friesland

Drenthe

Groningen

Zeeland

MANY INDUSTRIAL PREMISES ARE AVAILABLE

Structureel aanbod opnieuw omhoog

Het structurele aandeel van het aanbod bedrijfs-ruimten nam in 2013 verder toe. Met name in Flevoland en Zeeland staat een aanzienlijk deel van het aanbod al langer dan 3 jaar leeg.

DIFFERENCES ARE LESS SIGNIFICANT

2012

Structural supply share out of total supply

Total industrial space available in the Netherlands exceeding 750 m2

201212.1mln

18.1%

> 3 years available

> 5 years available

18.3%

6.4%

5.4%

201312.6 mln

2013

32%

21%

17%

14%

17%

23%

18%22%

16%

20%

15%11%

29%

27%

24%

21%

20%

20%

19%18%

17%

15%

14%

12%10% - 20%20% - 30%

At least 30%

SameUp

Down

STRUCTURAL SUPPLY GOES UP AGAIN

Although business confidence improved significantly last year, the industrial space availability levels went up for the fifth time in a row. Like the office market, the industrial space market is also suffering from an aging stock. In addition, finding

new users for vacant premises is not easy at all. Unlike the case with offices and retail outlets, many industrial buildings are user specific, which means they are ‘built-to-suit’.

Structural industrial supply levels continued to climb in 2013. Especially in Flevoland and Zeeland, a serious amount of space has been available for more than three years.


Logistiek: niet alles goud wat er blinkt

Het heeft er alle schijn van dat de gebruikersmarkt voor logistiek vastgoed (distributiecentra en grootschalige opslagruimten) iets van haar glans heeft verloren. Aanleiding vormt het oplopend aanbod van leegstaande ruimten, terwijl daarnaast de vraag van huurders en kopers behoorlijk is teruggelopen. Een en ander heeft natuurlijk haar uitwerking op de huurprijzen niet gemist. Vooral bij bestaande gebouwen is de prijs flink gedaald. Bij dit alles moet wel worden aangetekend dat het huidige aanbod sterk is verouderd en dat er weinig nieuw-bouw voorhanden is.

Logistics property in million m2

PRICES CONTINUE TO DROP

RISE NOT ONLY DUE TO NEW PROPERTY

Average rent in € per m2 per annum

New property

Existing property

Total stock

’13’12’11’10’09’08’07’06

’13’12’11’10’09’08’07’06

Supply

Demand

Supply as% of stock

2006

7.2%2013

12.5% 0

5

10

15

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LOGISTICS PROPERTY: ALL THAT IS GOLD DOES NOT GLITTER

0

5

2

1

10

15

20

25

30

Meer leegstaande winkels

Door de economische crisis, het lage consumentenver-trouwen en toenemende verkopen via internet is de winkelleegstand in 2013 verder opgelopen. In vrijwel alle provincies nam in 2013 het totaal aantal aangeboden winkelmeters toe. Alleen Flevoland en Zuid-Holland hadden ten opzichte van 2012 met een duidelijke daling van het aanbod te maken. Het aanbod steeg verhoudingsgewijs het sterkst in de

provincies Limburg, Noord-Brabant en Friesland. In de provincie Groningen bleef het aanbod nagenoeg gelijk aan dat van 2012. In de grotere stadscentra ging het aantal leegstaande winkelpanden vorig jaar iets omhoog, zowel in de hoofdwinkelstraten (A locaties) als in de winkelgebieden daarbuiten (aanloopstraten).

Retail property in m2 x million

RISING SUPPLY IN THE RETAIL MARKET CHANGES IN SUPPLY 2012-2013

Total stock

’13’12’11’10’09’08’07’06

Supply Take-up

291,500337,000268,000280,500241,500144,500129,500105,500

99,500105,000

50,00065,000

338,000324,500301,000290,500240,500169,500148,500116,000107,500104,500

53,50053,000

–10% - 0%

< -10%

0% - +10%

+10% - +15%

> +15%

Noord-BrabantZuid-HollandNoord-HollandGelderlandOverijsselLimburgFrieslandDrentheUtrechtGroningenZeelandFlevoland

+10%

-18%

+14%

+4%

0%

+17%

+16%

+12%0%

+8%

+8%

-4%

Retail market supply in m2

2012 2013

MORE VACANT RETAIL PROPERTY

It would appear that the logistics occupa-tional market (distribution centres and large-scale storage spaces) has become rather dull. It is because of rising supply levels, while demand from lessees and buyers has seriously dropped. Obviously this had major impact on rents, as prices fell particularly as far as existing buildings are involved. Nevertheless, it should be stated that today’s supply is very outdated and that few new premises are available.

Because of the financial crisis, less consumer confidence and increasing sales on the internet, retail vacancy rates continued to rise in 2013. The total number of retail space available increased in almost each province with the exception of Flevoland and Zuid-Holland, which saw supply clearly drop compared to 2012. Comparatively, supply rose strongest

in the provinces of Limburg, Noord- Brabant and Friesland. In the province of Groningen supply was almost the same as in 2012. In addition, the number of vacant retail premises slightly went up in larger city centres, in the main shopping streets (A locations) but also in other shopping areas (shopping streets leading to the main shopping areas).


Ook meer structurele leegstand van winkels

Het structurele aanbod van winkelruimte, het aantal vierkante meters dat al langer dan 3 jaar wordt aangeboden, is met name buiten de Randstad groot.

Provincies met veel structurele leegstand zijn Drenthe, Zeeland en Limburg. In 2013 is het structurele aanbod verder toegenomen.

STRUCTURAL SUPPLY OF RETAIL SPACE

2012

2013

0% - 5%5% - 10%

10% - 15%

SameUp

Down

13%

7%

15%

11%

12%

17%

11%

7%13%

6%

12%

8%

12%

4%

16%

12%

11%

14%

14%

7%

16%

8%

10%

8%

Amsterdam sterkste winkelmarkt

Van de gemeenten met meer dan 100.000 inwoners doet heeft Amsterdam verhoudingsgewijs het minste aanbod winkelruimte. Enschede kent het hoogte percentage winkelmeters in aanbod.

TEKST VOEGT PROOF TOE Claritas est etiam processus dynamicus qui sequitur mutationem consuetudium lectorum mirum. Nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat

Amsterdam

Venlo

Den Bosch

Eindhoven

Utrecht

Maastricht

Apeldoorn

The Hague

Dordrecht

Amersfoort

Rotterdam

Zwolle

Ede

Almere

Groningen

Arnhem

Leiden

Zaanstad

Breda

Haarlem

Nijmegen

Emmen

Tilburg

Leeuwarden

Enschede

3.2%1

Retail space available as a percentage of stock

AMSTERDAM STRONGEST, ENSCHEDE LAST ON THE LIST

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

3.9%

4.0%

4.3%

4.6%

5.3%

5.3%

5.4%

5.4%

5.5%

5.6%

5.6%

6.0%

7.2%

7.6%

8.0%

8.1%

8.3%

8.5%

8.8%

8.8%

9.7%

10.0%

11.0%

17.2%

ALSO MORE STRUCTURAL RETAIL VACANCYAMSTERDAM HAS THE STRONGEST RETAIL MARKET

Structural supply of retail space, the num-ber of square metres available for more than three years, is high particularly out-side Randstad. The provinces of Friesland

and Overijssel are the ones looking at high structural vacancy rates. Structural supply levels continued to rise in 2013.

Of all Dutch municipalities with more than 100,000 citizens, relatively speaking the city of Amsterdam has the lowest retail vacancy. It means that the Dutch capital is the strongest shopping city in

the Netherlands. Enschede, on the other hand, has the highest amount of retail space available for rent or sale, also due to a large supply of large-scale and peripheral retail outlets (PDV/GDV).


0

50

100

150

200

Huurprijzen naar laagste niveau

Door het ruime aanbod en de afgenomen vraag zijn de huurprijzen van commercieel vastgoed in 2013 verder gedaald. Als gevolg daarvan liggen de prijzen op het laagste niveau van de laatste 8 jaar. Het zijn

met name de huurprijzen van kantoren die vorig jaar een scherpe daling te zien gaven. Maar ook op de markt voor winkels en bedrijfsruimten daalden de prijzen sterker dan in voorgaande jaren.

Rents in € per m2 per annum

140

5046

115

154

164

RENTS CONTINUE TO DROP

RETAIL SPACE

OFFICE SPACE

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

RENTS AT THE LOWEST LEVEL

Due to high availability levels and poorer demand, commercial property rents continued to drop in 2013. As a result, prices are now at the lowest level since

the past 8 years. Office rents in particular dropped significantly, yet prices charged for retail and industrial space also fell more strongly than in previous years.

Branche-ontwikkeling 2013

LARGER

SMALLER

LESS MOREFoodstuff

Persoonlijke

Personalcare

W

Department stores

Kleding & Mode

Clothing & fashion

Schoenen & Lede

Shoes & leather items

Living

Source: LocatusProcessed by: NVM

Changingnumber in use

Changing floorarea in use

Juwelier & Optiek

Jewellers& optics

Huishoudelijke- & Luxe Ar

Household & luxurious items

Antiek & Kunst

Antics & art

-8% 4%

8%

-10%

Spo

Sports & game

Hobby

Hobby

MediaMedia Plant & Dier

Plant & animal

Bruin &

White andbrown goods

Auto & Fiets

Cars & bicycles

Doe-Het-Zelf

DIY

WleegstandVAmbachtFinanciële InstellingPa

Retail sectorHousehold & luxurious itemsCars & bicyclesDIYDepartment storesFoodstuffPersonal careJewellers & opticsSports & gamePlant & animalAntics & artClothing & fashionHobbyShoes & leather itemsLiving White and brown goodsMedia

0%+1%-2%

+4%0%0%0%-2%-2%-4%-3%-2%-3%-3%-2%

-10%

Changes infloor area

Changes innumbers

+5%+2%+2%+1%+1%+1%+1%

0%0%0%-1%-2%-3%-3%-3%-9%

Bepaalde branches worden extra hard geraakt door de veranderende marktomstandigheden. Mediawin-kels (cd's, boeken) bijvoorbeeld hebben het duidelijk zwaar gehad in 2013, want zowel het aantal winkels als het totale door deze branche in gebruik zijnde vloeroppervlak is sterk gedaald. Overigens gebeurde dit ook in de branches wonen en mode.

Certain retail sectors suffered even more from changing market conditions. For instance, media stores (CDs, books) were having a hard time in 2013, as both the

number of stores and the total floor area used by this sector dropped significantly. The same happened in the living and fashion sectors.

HOW RETAIL SECTORS DEVELOPED IN 2013


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Nederlandse beleggers nog terughoudend

Hoewel de prijzen van commercieel vastgoed de afgelopen jaren zijn gedaald, vinden veel Neder-landse beleggers het nog te riskant om de markt te betreden. In 2013 bleven dan ook veel fondsen langs de zijlijn staan. Kennelijk zagen zij nog te veel risico's. Toch waren er ook positieve ontwikkelingen. Zo bleef de vraag van met name buitenlandse

beleggers naar kantoren goed op peil en werd in dit segment zelfs meer belegd dan in 2012. Dat gebeurde vooral in Amsterdam. Ook steeg vorig jaar de vraag naar bedrijfsgebouwen. Dat laatste was te danken aan de verhoogde afzet van distributiecentra. Dat het volume van de winkelbeleggingen wat tegenviel, komt onder meer doordat er ook minder nieuwe winkelcentra in aanbouw zijn genomen.

SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCECommercial property investments in € x 1mln.

OFFICE SPACE

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

RETAIL SPACE

5,134

1,4601,292

5371,409

521

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13

DUTCH INVESTORS STILL RETICENT

Although commercial property prices have dropped in recent years, many Dutch investors are still reluctant to access the market. In 2013, many funds remained on the sideline, apparently there were still too many risks as far as they are concerned. Nevertheless, there have been some positive changes. For instance, foreign investors’ demand for

offices in particular was steady and in fact, this sector saw investment levels rise compared to 2012 (mainly in Amsterdam). Also, last year demand for industrial buildings intensified thanks to increasing sales of distribution centres. The slightly disappointing retail investment volumes is also due to the fact that fewer new shopping centres were under construction.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Prijs commercieel vastgoed sterk gedaald

Uitzonderingen daargelaten staan de verkoopprijzen van commercieel vastgoed sterk onder druk. Dit komt onder meer doordat banken de financiering hebben beperkt. Ook in 2013 gingen de prijzen flink omlaag. Vooral kantoren zijn in 2013 veel goedkoper geworden.

Overigens blijkt dat de koopprijzen voor commercieel onroerend goed harder zijn gedaald dan de huurpri-jzen. Veel beleggers houden de huurprijzen kunst-matig hoog. Dat doen zij door het verstrekken van ‘incentives’, zoals huurvrije perioden en inrichtings-bijdragen.

SELLING PRICES TUMBLE DOWNDifference in median selling prices compared to last year in %, 2005 = 100

INDUSTRIAL SPACE

-19.5%

-16.3%

-38.8%

OFFICE SPACE

RETAIL SPACE

’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13’05

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICES ARE MUCH LOWER

With some exceptions, commercial property selling prices are seriously under pressure. One of the reasons is the fact that banks have restricted funding. In 2013, prices went down significantly yet again, with offices in particular becoming much cheaper. It also turns

out commercial property prices dropped even faster compared to rents, as many investors have kept these at artificially high levels. To this end, investors provide incentives including rent-free periods and furnishing allowance.

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | AGRICULTURAL & RURAL | 5958 | BUSINESS | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

AGRICULTURAL & RURAL

AG

RIC

ULT

UR

AL

& R

UR

AL

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | AGRICULTURAL & RURAL | 6160 | AGRICULTURAL & RURAL | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

Agrarische vastgoedmarkt stroef in 2013...

POULTRY FARMS

HORSE FARMS AND HORSE RIDING ACADEMIES

HORTICULTURAL BUSINESSES

GLASSHOUSE FARMING

’08 ’08

’08

’08

’09 ’10’10

’10

’10

’11 ’12’12

’12

’12

’13

’08

’08

’08

’08

’10

’10

’10

’10

’12

’12

’12

’12

’09 ’11 ’13’09

’11’13

’09’11

’13

20

Source for transactions: NVM, land registry Source for supply: NVM

20

40

40

60

60

80

80

100

100

120

120

140

140

160

160

180

’09’11

’13

’09

’11

’13

’09

’11

’13

’09

’11

’13

De agrarische vastgoedmarkt verliep uiterst moeizaam in 2013: het aanbod nam toe of bleef nagenoeg stabiel, terwijl het aantal transacties daalde. Voor zover transacties plaatsvonden, lagen die qua prijs op een lager niveau. Met name in de pluimvee- en paardensector waren weinig transacties te bespeuren. De tuinbouwsector – meer in het bijzonder de glastuinbouw – kende wel een toename

in het aantal transacties, zij het dat een groot aantal hiervan uit gedwongen verkopen bestond. Belangri-jke redenen voor de stroeve markt zijn het ontbreken van kopers, de moeizame financiering, de trage verstrekking van benodigde vergunningen bij koop en de belemmerende factor van (ongeschikte) bebouwing op het agrarisch perceel.

PIGFARMS

DAIRY FARMS

VEAL FARMS

ARABLE FARMS

(excl. glasshouse farming)

A STIFF AGRICULTURAL PROPERTY MARKET

The agricultural property market was anything but painless in 2013: supply increased or remained almost steady, while the number of transactions dropped. Most transactions that did take place involved lower price levels. Especially in the poultry and horse industry, transactions were scarce. The horticultural industry – more specifically

greenhouse farming – did see the number of trans actions climb, even though many of these transactions involved compulsory sales. The major reasons for dealing with a stiff market include the lack of buyers, difficult funding, obtaining the acquisition permits required takes ages and the frustrating factor of (unsuitable) buildings on agricultural land.

SOME SECTORS DID WELL

Last year some sectors did well, particu-larly due to good proceeds in these sectors. In addition, expectations were positive

and sufficient property buyers showed up. It was mainly readily marketable property that was sold without too much fuss.

Companies available as at 31 December

Companies sold


Dynamiek markt per sector verschillend

SUPPLY TRENDS ILLUSTRATE PROPERTY DYNAMICS

HORTICULTURAL FARMING15

49

7

41

3

New

(excl. glasshouse farming)

Old

79

89

23

91

22

New

Old

DAIRY FARMS

Van vier agrarische sectoren is in beeld gebracht hoe dynamisch de markt van agrarisch vastgoed in 2013 was. Elke sector laat weer een uniek beeld zien. Als we de melkveehouderijsector onder de loep nemen, zien we dat het aanbod eind 2012 nagenoeg gelijk is aan het aanbod eind 2013. Het aantal aanmeldingen afgelopen jaar was groot, maar daarentegen was ook

het aantal verkopen met 45 vrij fors. Opvallend is dat het aantal melkveehouderijen dat binnen een jaar verkocht is ongeveer gelijk is aan het aantal dat meer dan een jaar te koop staat. Al met al mag je spreken van een dynamische markt. Een voorbeeld van een minder dynamische markt is de tuinbou-wsector.

New supply2013 Sold



New supply2013 Sold



Corrections are made at year-end,which is why numbers do not fully correspond.

21

6Withdrawn

10

3Withdrawn

ARABLE FARMING

30

21

5 3

30

2

New

Old

New supply2013 Withdrawn

11

SoldSupply at

year-end 2013Supply atyear-end 2012

Aanbod agrarisch vastgoed per sector

Eind 2013 waren in Nederland ruim 700 agrarische bedrijven te koop. Bijna een kwart van de aange-boden bedrijven had betrekking op paardenhouderi-jen en maneges. Tegenover dit ruime aanbod stond

echter een beperkt aanbod van pluimveebedrijven (leghennen, vleeskuikens, kalkoenen). Binnen de sector 'overige bedrijven' vallen onder meer zorgboer-derijen, hondenkennels, campings enkaasboerderijen.

SUPPLY BY SECTOR

104

30

91

30

41

79

163

26

141

PIGFARMS

FARM

ING

ARABLE

DAIRY

FARM

S

POULTRY

FARM

ING

HO

RTIC

ULTU

RAL

GLA

SSH

OU

SE F

ARM

ING

ON

LY

HORSE FARMS/HORSE RIDING ACA

DEMY

VEAL CALVES

OTH

ER COM

PANIES

705TOTAL

(exc

l. gl

assh

ouse

farm

ing)

AGRICULTURAL PROPERTY SUPPLY BY SECTOR

At year-end 2013, the Netherlands was home to more than 700 agricultural firms ready to welcome new owners. Almost one quarter of these businesses involved horse farms and horse riding academies. This ample supply was counterbalanced by a

limited availability of arable farms, veal and poultry farms (laying hens, broilers, turkeys). ‘Other companies’ include care farms, dog kennels, camping sites and cheese farms.

DIFFERENT PROPERTY MARKET DYNAMICS IN EACH SECTOR

The agricultural property market dynamics depends on the industry involved. For instance, at year-end 2012 supply in the dairy sector was almost the same as that towards the end of 2013. Indeed, the number of registrations was high, and sales transactions (45) were quite substantial. One interesting detail

is the fact that the number of dairy farms sold within one year is almost the same as the number offered for more than a year. This confirms we are dealing with a dynamic market. In the horticultural sector, however, market was not quite as dynamic.


0

10

20

30

40

50

‘06 ‘07 ‘09‘08 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13

Melkquotum duurder, einde nadert

De prijs van melkquotum - het recht om een bepaalde hoeveelheid melk te produceren - bereikte in maart 2013 een dieptepunt (€7,40 per kg vet). Dit kwam vooral door achterblijvende vraag, die mogelijk

verband hield met het naderende einde van het melkquotum per 1 april 2015. Vanaf maart was er echter weer sprake van een prijsstijging door meer vraag en een krapper aanbod.

Price per kilogram of milk fat

MILK QUOTA PRICE UP AGAIN

€7.40

€12.10

MORE EXPENSIVE MILK QUOTAS, THE END IS NEAR

Prices paid for milk quotas – the right to produce a certain amount of milk – hit rock bottom in March 2013 (€ 7.40 for each kilogram of fat). Poor demand was the main reason, which probably followed from

the approaching end of the milk quotas on 1 April 2015. As of March, however, prices went up again due to higher demand and tighter supply levels.

Licht herstel te zien bij woonboerderijen

< € 300,000

266

322

362

382424

414811

511

527

377481

287

234

283

319

389408

371603

473

504

352

423

296

Average transaction price by province in € x1,000

2012

PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEAR

2013

€ 300,000 - € 350,000

€ 350,000 - € 400,000

€ 400,000 - € 450,000

€ 450,000 - € 500,000

> € 500,000

Niet alleen de woningmarkt lijkt zich te herstellen, ook op de markt van woonboerderijen was vorig jaar een verbetering zichtbaar, ware het niet dat de markt werd geconfronteerd met veel aanbod en maar weinig kopers. Karakteristieke woonboerderijen met een gunstige ligging deden het nog redelijk goed. Het totaal aantal transacties steeg van iets meer dan 460 in het eerste halfjaar naar bijna 630 in de tweede

helft van 2013. Ook de verkooptijd neemt sinds medio 2012 af. De prijzen blijven echter dalen. Werd een gemiddelde woonboerderij voor het uitbreken van de kredietcrisis voor meer dan een half miljoen euro verkocht, in 2013 lag de gerealiseerd prijs op nog geen 380.000 euro. In de Randstad zijn woonboerderi-jen doorgaans het duurst.

MODEST RECOVERY IN CONVERTED FARMHOUSES

Not only the housing market seemed to pick up, the converted farmhouse market too clearly did better last year, despite high availability levels and few buyers showing up. Characteristic farmhouses at convenient locations did well nevertheless. The total number of transactions went up from just over 460 in the first six months to almost 630 in the second half of 2013.

Also, since mid-2012 less time is required to sell a farmhouse. But prices continued to drop. While prior to the financial crisis an average farmhouse was sold at more than a half million euro, in 2013 the average price paid amounted to no more than € 380,000. The most expensive converted farmhouses are usually to be found in Randstad.


Regionale verschillen in prijs grasland

Bouwhoeken Hogeland

PRICE RANGE OF GRASSLANDS

Bouwhoeken Hogeland

Centraalveehouderij-gebied


Hollands/Utrechtsweidegebied


IJsselmeer-polders

IJsselmeer-polders

Noordelijk weidegebied


Oostelijkveehouderij-gebied


Rivierengebied

Rivieren-gebied

Veenkoloniënen Oldambt


Waterland enDroogmakerijen


WestelijkHolland

WestelijkHolland

Zuidelijkveehouderijgebied

Zuidelijkveehouderij-gebied

Zuidwest-Brabant

Zuidwest-Brabant

Zuidwestelijkakkergebied


Zuid-Limburg

Zuid-Limburg

35,000 -40,000

40,000 -45,000

45,000 -50,000

50,000 -55,000

55,000 -60,000

60,000 -65,000

Source: land registryProcessed by: NVM

65,000 -70,000

70,000 -75,000

Over het algemeen verliep de grondmarkt in Nederland goed in 2013. Verkoopprijzen van grasland waren stabiel tot licht stijgend. Een belangrijke oorzaak van de toenemende vraag naar grasland is de duidelijkheid die er nu is over de quotering en

regelgeving vanaf 2015. Met name vanuit de middelgrote en grote melkveebedrijven was er vraag naar grasland. Wel zijn de regionale verschillen groot. In het oosten liggen de prijzen voor grasland het laagst, in de IJsselmeerpolders het hoogst.

REGIONALLY DIFFERENT PRICES FOR GRASSLANDS

In general, the Dutch land market did well in 2013. The selling prices of grasslands were steady or even slightly higher. One of the main reasons of rising demand for grasslands are the crystal-clear quotas and regulations that will

become effective in 2015. Medium-size and large-scale dairy farms required most grasslands, although regional differences are vast. East of the country, prices paid for grasslands are the lowest, and highest in the IJsselmeer Polders.

PRICE RANGE OF ARABLE TERRITORIES

Source: land registryProcessed by: NVM

35,000 -40,000

Bouwhoeken Hogeland



IJsselmeer-polders



Rivieren-gebied



WestelijkHolland

Zuidelijkveehouderij-gebied

Zuidwest-Brabant


Zuid-Limburg

40,000 -45,000

45,000 -50,000

50,000 -55,000

55,000 -60,000

60,000 -65,000

65,000 -70,000

70,000 -75,000

Bouwhoek





Rivierengebied



WestelijkHolland

Zuidelijkveehouderijgebied

Zuidwest-Brabant


Zuid-Limburg

Prijsniveaus akkerbouwland iets hoger

De vraag naar bouwland bestaat voornamelijk uit grotere kavels. Kleinere, minder courante percelen zijn moeilijker verkoopbaar, waardoor deze voor relatief lage prijzen van de hand gaan. Het afgelopen jaar kwam veel vraag naar bouwland vanuit de

akkerbouw en de melkveehouderij. Er is duidelijk sprake van schaalvergroting bij de grondgebonden landbouw. Dit leidt ertoe dat de prijzen stabiel blijven of zelfs stijgen. Ook bij bouwland worden de hoogste prijzen per hectare in de IJsselmeerpolders gereali-seerd.

en Hogeland

IJsselmeer-polders

PRICE LEVELS SLIGHTLY UP IN FARMLAND

Demand for farmland mainly involves larger plots. Smaller, not very marketable lots are more difficult to sell, which is why they exchange owners at relatively low prices. Last year arable and dairy farmers required more farmland, which clearly

indicated increased scale in land-based agriculture. As a result, prices remained steady or in fact they went up. For farm-land too, the highest prices per hectare were paid in the IJsselmeer Polders.

THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013 | 6968 | THE DUTCH PROPERTY MARKET IN FOCUS — FACTS AND FIGURES 2013

OUTLOOK

In 2014, the Dutch property market will face serious challenges as several factors will make sure the extent to which recovery presents itself is different in each submarket. According to expectations, economy will show some modest growth (0.5%) for the very first time since 2011. Inflation will continue to fall to 1.5% and spending power will rise by an average of 1%. At the same time, unemployment rates will climb. So far, we do not know how manufacturers and consumers will continue to have faith in 2014. But we do know this: banks will have a crucial role because reluctant financiers means less recovery in the end.

For 2014, NVM expects the housing market to see some modest growth. On annual basis, the number of transactions will go up by approximately 5% and prices will stabilise. The decline in supply levels that presented itself in 2013 will persevere. The housing market, which started to pick up in the second half of 2013, will continue to progress. The extent of recovery, however, will be different in each region. The housing market will benefit from improved affordability due to low interest rates and lower house prices. But then again, a number of measures will interfere with the financeabilty of homes even more. According to Nibud’s adapted standards (since 1 January 2014) consumers may borrow less money and the National Mortgage Guarantee scheme will be limited as of 1 July 2014, back to j 265,000. For specific groups, e.g. independent professionals, customised mortgage funding is required.

The commercial property market is not expected to see substan-tial recovery, if any at all. For now, the anticipated economic growth is insufficient for putting a stop to the rising office vacancy rates and declining demand for office space. Hence, rents will remain seriously under pressure with a rising divide between first-class locations and other offices. The retail property availability levels will continue to rise in 2014, particularly on the inner city’s shopping streets leading to the main shopping area, places outside Randstad and also in small towns. Consumers will remain reluctant to buy items at the stores, while consumption levels on the internet will continue to rise. Rents will drop, the more so in small and mid-size cities. Rents paid for A1 location stores are expected to remain steady. The prospects for the industrial property market, compared to those for the office and retail market, are slightly more promising due to rising business confidence. Nevertheless, the purchase prices will still be under pressure because of the limited financeability of

property. In 2014 the investment market will make a lively sight, and alternative financial structures could play a bigger role.

In the agricultural market, long-term trends such as declining numbers of companies and increase in scale will continue undiminished. Dairy farms in particular will grow this year, both in terms of plot size but also where the number of stables is concerned. Prices charged for agricultural land are expected to remain steady or slightly go up in 2014. In addition, the market for converted farmhouses will slightly pick up. In the meantime, vacancy and landscape cluttering will threaten in agricultural areas. Therefore, more focus on the conversion of released agricultural property is required.

OU

TLO

OK


NVM’S PROFILE

NVM is the largest association of real estate brokers and real estate experts in the Netherlands, actively involved in all market segments. NVM’s ambition is to purposefully support members and effectively represent their interests towards the authorities and political circles. NVM has approximately 3900 affiliated real estate agents.

NVM consists of three expert sections: Housing, Business and Agricultural & Rural Property. They are familiar with all the changes presenting themselves in their fields. They are respon sible for observing developments and trends, and also for providing professional support in the event of market-specific issues. In addition, NVM is home to departments specialising in inter alia legal assistance, communications & marketing as well as advocacy.

The Dutch Association of Real Estate Brokers and Real Estate Experts NVM (hereafter referred to as NVM) expressly reserves all rights to this document

Nothing in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a data file or disclosed, in any form or manner, electronically, mechanically, through photocopying, recordings, or otherwise, without NVM’s prior written consent Third parties shall not use or disclose any of this information without NVM’s prior written consent Making alterations to the outer appearance of this document is expressly prohibited Despite NVM’s unrelenting care and dedication in preparing this document and the information included, NVM does not guarantee the completeness, correctness or continuous topicality of data

NVM, in the event of evidenced misuse, shall invoke its rights with the statutorily competent Dutch court

COLOPHON

Composed by: Rudolf BakStéphanie BransFrank HarlemanMatthijs HofmanBart KnijffGuido Raven

Production: Liesbeth Kramer

Source: Unless stated otherwise, all figures are based on NVM data The housing market figures 2013 are preliminary figures

Design: Proof Reputation, Amsterdam

Infographics: Els Engel and Saro Van Cleynenbreugel, Amsterdam Address: NVMFakkelstede 13431 HZ Nieuwegein (the Netherlands)research@nvm nlwww nvm nl+31 30-6085185

Documents

The Dutch Propery Market in Focus 2013