The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM): Overview€¦ · The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM): Overview ... Climate Data (PRISM Climate Data) • Covering the period of 1895

The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM):

Overview

Chesapeake Hypoxia Analysis and Modeling Program (CHAMP)

25 January 2017, Joe Macknis Memorial Conference Room (Fish Shack)

CBPO 410 Severn Avenue, Annapolis, MD

Hanqin Tian

Auburn University

Outline

• DLEM – Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model

• DLEM applications:

NASA IDS project – US Eastern Coast

NASA IDS project - Chesapeake and Delaware Watershed

• DLEM for NOAA CHAMP

• Future plan

The DLEM Framework

Tian et al., 2015-JGR-Biogeoscience

Key processes, pools, fluxes and their coupling

DLEM - A coupled biogeochemical model

Major natural and human driving forces and key biogeochemical fluxes (C: Carbon; N: Nitrogen; and P: phosphorus) along the terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.

Tian et al., 2015-JGR-Biogeoscience

DLEM module: the terrestrial-aquatic interfaces

Dynamic

Land

Ecosystem

Model

Climate.Temperature

.Precipitation

.Radiation

.Relative Humidity

Atmospheric Compositions.CO2

.O3

.Nitrogen Deposition

Land Use.Deforestation

.Urbanization

.Harvest

.Fertilization

.Irrigation

Other Disturbances.Wildfire

.Disease

.Climate Extremes

Dri

vin

g F

act

ors

Soil.Physical Properties

.Chemical Properties

.Depth

Geomorphology.Elevation

.Slope

.Aspect

River Network .Flow Direction

.Accumulative Area

.River Slope

.River Length

.River Width

Vegetation Functional Type

Cropping System

Co

ntr

oll

ing

Fa

cto

rs

Climate related:.GHG emissions (e.g. CO2,CH4 ,N2O fluxes); VOC

flux, Black carbon, …

Nutrients related:.N and P Storage and leaching;

.Export of TN and TP;

.Export of DOC and POC

Water related

.Surface Runoff; Subsurface Flow;

.ET; Soil Moisture; water use efficiency

.River Discharge;

Ecosystem Goods

.Crop yield; Wood Products; Biofuel, …

INPUT MODEL OUTPUTCarbon Fluxes and Storage:.Carbon fluxes (GPP, NPP, Rh,NCE, NEP, CH4,

VOC, DOC, DIC)

.Carbon storages (LeafC, stemC, litterC, rootC,

reproductionC, soilC)

Water Fluxes and Storage :.ET, Runoff, Soil moisture

Nitrogen Fluxes and Storage :.Nitrogen fluxes (N2O, NO, N2)

.Nitrogen storages (LeafN, stemN, litterN, rootN,

reproductionN, soilN), TN

(Phosphorus Fluxes and Storage:

.LeafP, stemP, litterP, rootP, soilP, TP)

Bio

geo

che

m.-

hyd

rolo

g. c

ycle

sEc

osy

ste

m G

oo

ds

and

Se

rvic

es

Coupled cycles of C, N, P and water at multiple temporal and spatial scales

Key Features of the DLEM

Simultaneous consideration of three major GHGs (CO2, CH4 and N2O)

Multiple stresses including climate, CO2, O3, N deposition, land use/cover

change, natural disturbance (fire, insect/disease, hurricane, etc.), and land

management practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization, cropping system)

Surface-groundwater coupling

Water and material movement over space

NASA IDS Project: Impacts of Changing Climate and Land Use on Carbon Cycling and Budgets of the Coastal Ocean Margin: Observations, Analysis, and Modeling

Model Evaluation: River discharge in the US Eastern Coast

Evapotranspiration

Average ET of NAECoS was 648.3±38.6 mm ET exhibited significant inter-annual variability with the maximum ET of 708 mm occurred in 1973 and the minimum ET of 603 mm in 1904.

Evapotranspiration

Climate change was responsible for the interannual variability in ET; Land use Change increased ET; CO2 elevation reduced ET but not comparable with that of Land use change

Runoff

p=0.092

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Ru

noff

(m

m /

yea

r)

Year

Temporal variations of Runoff

Runoff Linear (Runoff)

mean annual runoff was 420.5±122.2 mm (95% confidence interval) during 1901-2008. Increased runoff generation occurred in norther NAECOS, whereasIn most part of the southern NAECoS, runoff was reduced.

Runoff

Climate change was responsible for the interannual variability in runoff; Land use Change decreased runoff and reduction in runoff by land use change increased With time.

Carbon export

POC

15

DICDOC

Carbon export

DOC experiment

POC experiment

16

DOC export fluctuated with climate change. N disposition, CO2 elevation, N fertilizer use had positive impacts whereas land use change had negative impacts.

POC export varied with climate change in different years. N disposition, CO2 elevation, N fertilizer use had positive impacts whereas land use change had negative impacts.

Management

Carbon export

DIC experiment

17

18

Nitrogen Export

NH4

NO3

19

Nitrogen ExportDON

PON

20

Nitrogen Export

NH4

PONDON

NO3

21

Nitrogen Export

NH4

NO3

-0.0500

0.0000

0.0500

0.1000

0.1500

0.2000

1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

NO

3 e

xp

ort

An

om

aly(T

gN

/yea

r)

Year

Management N DepositionCO2 Climate changeAll Landcover changeManure Population

-0.0050

0.0000

0.0050

0.0100

1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006NH

4 e

xp

ort

An

om

aly(T

gN

/yea

r)

Year

Management N Deposition CO2Climate change All land use changeManure Population

22

Nitrogen ExportDON

PON

Projected climate change across the US EC

Temperature (°C)

Precipitation (mm)

Future Land use change

Cropland

Urban area

River Discharge

River

discharge

DIC

Carbon

export

DOC

POC

PON

DONNO3

Nitrogen

export

Future total carbon export from GOM, MAB and SAB Sub Basins

Future total nitrogen export from GOM, MAB and SAB Sub Basins

NASA IDS Project: Synergistic impacts of population growth,

urbanization, and climate change on watersheds and coastal

ecology of the northeastern United States

Development of input datasets

Climate Data (PRISM Climate Data)• Covering the period of 1895 – present

• Spatial resolution: 4km

• Daily or monthly weather parameter: tmax, tair, tmin, precipitation

Daily:1981-2016

Monthly:1895-1980 (Reconstruct the daily pattern by randomly selected the daily pattern of climate data from 1981-2016)

Temperature

9

10

11

12

13

189519051915192519351945195519651975198519952005

Tem

per

atu

re(°

C)

Year

Mean…

1895

1975 2014

1935

Annual Temperature

<VALUE>

< 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

8 - 9

9 - 1

0

10 -

11

11 -

12

12 -

13

> 13


Precipitation 1895

1975 2014

1935

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

189519051915192519351945195519651975198519952005

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(mm

/yr)

Year

Precipitation

Precipitation (mm/yr)

<VALUE>

< 60

0

600

- 700

700

- 800

800

- 900

900

- 100

0

1000

- 11

00

1100

- 12

00

1200

- 13

00

1300

- 14

00

1400

- 15

00

1500

- 16

00

> 16

00


Nitrogen Input

Atmospheric component

Nitrogen Deposition

Global Nitrogen Deposition Data

(http://daac.ornl.gov/CLIMATE/guides/global_N_deposition_maps.html)

Human-induced

Nitrogen Fertilizer Use

Nfer for different crop types from 1961 to 2008 was

collected from FAO

Livestock Farming

County-level manure nitrogen inputs from USDA

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1894 1914 1934 1954 1974 1994 2014

Nit

roge

n (

gN/m

2/y

r)

Year

NHX

NOY

Manure


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Nit

roge

n (

gN/m

2/y

ear)

CBP N Deposition

NH4

NO3

NLCD

2006

Forest

Grass

Shrub

Inland Water

Bare Ground

Glacier

Wetland

Ocean

River

Deciduous Forest

Evergreen Forest

Reclassify Based on North

American 2005 Land Use

TBDF

TBEF

TNDF

TNEFC3 grass

C4 Grass

Reclassify Based on

global C4 vegetation map

Crop

Urban

1900-2001 County inventory data

2001-2011 based on NLCD

HYDE Land Use Data

2001-2011 based on NLCD

Reclassify Based on GLWD

Linear regression

Vegetated Area

Non-Vegetated

Area

Lake

Development of input datasets- Land use data

• Land use and land cover data

- National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) – (Spatial Resolution 30 m)

NLCD 2001 NLCD 2011NLCD 2006

Development of input datasets- Land use data

- Cropland 1900

1980 2010

1950

0

1

2

3

4

5

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Are

a(1

04km

2)

Year

Cropland

Cropland Fraction

<VALUE>

0 - 0.2

0.2 - 0.4

0.4 - 0.6

0.6 - 0.8

0.8 - 1


1900 1950

1980 2010

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Are

a (1

05

km2)

Year

Forest

- Forest


1900 1950

1980 2010

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Are

a (1

05

km2)

Year

Grassland

- Grassland


1900

1980 2010

1950

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Are

a(1

03km

2)

Year

Impervious Surface

Legend

<VALUE>

0 - 0.05

0.05 - 0.1

0.1 - 0.2

0.2 - 0.3

0.3 - 0.4

0.4 - 0.5

0.5 - 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.8 - 1


- Impervious surface

Urban Sewage

y = -6.0169x + 588.73

R² = 0.6146

y = 16.017x + 2032.2

R² = 0.4932

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Flo

w (

Mil

lon

Gal

lons)

Year

Flow

IndustryMunicipal

y = 0.0337x + 1.0408

R² = 0.8122

y = 0.0251x + 2.8995

R² = 0.9549

0

1

2

3

4

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

TT

S(1

01

2g)

Year

TSSIndustry

Municipal

Point source sewage operation distribution map


- Urban Sewage Nitrogen

y = -0.2839x + 11.381

R² = 0.8747

y = -0.5981x + 39.034

R² = 0.8978

0

10

20

30

40

50

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

TN

(Gg N

/yr)

Year

Total NitrogenIndustry

Municipal

Linear (Industry)

Linear (Municipal)

0

5

10

15

20

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

TO

N (

Gg N

/yr)

Year

TON Industry

Municipal

0

5

10

15

20

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

NO

23(G

g N

/yr)

Year

NO23 Industry

Municipal

0

5

10

15

20

25

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

NH

3(G

g N

/yr)

Year

NH3Industry

Municipal


- Susquehanna River

0

50000

100000

1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

Dis

char

ge(f

t3/s

)

Year

DischargeUSGS DLEM

y = 0.9349x + 0.312R² = 0.8982

0

1

2

3

0 1 2 3

DLE

M s

imu

lati

on

-D

isch

arge

(ft3

/s)

USGS observation-Discharge(ft3/s)

Discharge

DLEM validation

- James River

y = 1.252x + 1400.5R² = 0.9633

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

0 5000 10000 15000

DLE

M s

imu

lati

on

-D

isch

arge

(ft

3/s

)

USGS Observation-Discharge(ft3/s)

Discharge

0

10000

20000

1899 1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009

Dis

char

ge(f

t3/s

)

Year

DischargeUSGS DLEM

- Potomac River

0

10000

20000

30000

1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Dra

inag

e(ft

3/s

)

Year

DischargeUSGS DLEM

y = 0.6027x + 3827R² = 0.8601

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 10000 20000 30000

DLE

M s

imu

lati

on

-D

isch

arge

(ft

3/s

)

USGS Observation-Discharge (ft3/s)

Discharge

- Rappahannock River

0

2000

4000

6000

1908 1918 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

Dis

char

ge (

ft3/s

)

Year

DischargeUSGS DLEM

y = 0.7412x + 618.78R² = 0.7557

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

0 2000 4000 6000

DLE

M s

imu

lati

on

-D

isch

arge

(ft

3/s

)

USGS observation-Discharge(ft3/s)

Discharge

DLEM validation

- Delaware River

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013

Dra

inag

e(ft

3/s

)

Year

Discharge

USGS DLEM

y = 0.686x + 2315R² = 0.8333

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

0 10000 20000 30000

DLE

M s

imu

lati

on

-Dis

char

ge

(ft3

/s)

USGS observation -Discharge (ft3/s)

Discharge

DLEM validation

- Susquehanna River-DIN

0

20

40

60

80

Oct

-84

No

v-8

5

Dec

-86

Jan

-88

Feb

-89

Mar

-90

Ap

r-9

1

May

-92

Jun

-93

Jul-

94

Au

g-9

5

Sep

-96

Oct

-97

No

v-9

8

Dec

-99

Jan

-01

Feb

-02

Mar

-03

Ap

r-0

4

May

-05

Jun

-06

Jul-

07

Au

g-0

8

Sep

-09

Oct

-10

No

v-1

1

Dec

-12

DIN

(gN

/day

)

Date

Monthly

USGS DLEM

0

20

40

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

DIN

(gN

/day

)

Date

AnnualUSGS DLEM

DLEM validation

- James River

0

5

10

15

Oct

-84

No

v-8

5

Dec

-86

Jan

-88

Feb

-89

Mar

-90

Ap

r-9

1

May

-92

Jun

-93

Jul-

94

Au

g-9

5

Sep

-96

Oct

-97

No

v-9

8

Dec

-99

Jan

-01

Feb

-02

Mar

-03

Ap

r-0

4

May

-05

Jun

-06

Jul-

07

Au

g-0

8

Sep

-09

Oct

-10

DIN

(gN

/day

)

Date

Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen

USGS DLEM

DLEM validation

- Organic Nitrogen Export

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

mg

/L) DONDLEM

USGS

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

mg

/L)

TONDLEMUSGS

DLEM validation

- Inorganic Nitrogen Export

00.5

11.5

22.5

3

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

mg

/L)

NO3

DLEM

USGS

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

mg

/L)

NH4

DLEMUSGS

DLEM validation

- Carbon Export

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

mg

/L)

DOCDLEM

USGS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

mg

/L)

TOCDLEM

DLEM validation

- Total Export into the Chesapeake Bay

0

20

40

60

19

00

s

19

10

s

19

20

s

19

30

s

19

40

s

19

50

s

19

60

s

19

70

s

19

80

s

19

90

s

20

00

s

20

10

s

N e

xpo

rt (

Gg

N/y

r)

Nitrogen ExportNH4NO3DON

Decades

Total Export (Gg)

DOC POC NH4 NO3 DON PON

1900s 160.95 290.28 2.79 25.99 12.86 22.62

1950s 157.07 307.20 2.55 31.38 12.81 24.08

1980s 178.94 323.68 3.05 43.65 14.82 25.46

2000s 210.52 317.99 3.89 47.13 17.08 25.11

2011-2015 174.81 342.54 3.03 35.50 14.64 27.04

0

100

200

300

400

19

00

s

19

10

s

19

20

s

19

30

s

19

40

s

19

50

s

19

60

s

19

70

s

19

80

s

19

90

s

20

00

s

20

10

s

C e

xpo

rt (

Gg

C/y

r)

Organic Carbon Export

DOC

POC

DLEM Simulation and Analysis: an update

Comparison with other study

Year

CBP WM* Shenk and

Linker[2013] DLEM May 2016

Discharge

2001 55 47

2002 57 52

2003 138 136

2004 106 108

2005 81 79

mean 2001-2005 87 ± 35 84±37

DIN

2001 65 51

2002 73 94

2003 120 186

2004 88 124

2005 84 104

mean 2001-2005 86 ± 21 112±49

TON

2001 32 31

2002 33 31

2003 84 67

2004 67 55

2005 49 45

mean 2001-2005 53 ± 21 46±16

Needs to improve the DLEM representation of

biogeochemical processes within the water body

Improve model representation of phosphorus (P) cycling.

In the proposed task, we will further calibrate and evaluate this P submodel and apply it to simulate and predict the P export from land to the Chesapeake Bay as influenced by climate and land use changes.

Extend the new high-resolution gridded datasets to 2015. We are currently developing a consistent 1-km gridded database for 1950-2010, which includes land use, climate forcing, sewage water information, and river networks, to drive DLEM simulations of carbon and nutrient biogeochemistry in human-dominated regions.

Future Work Plan in the NOAA Project

Theme 1 – Diagnosis: Realistic hindcasts (1985-2015) (DLEM forced by multiple factors)

Theme 2 – Prediction: Realistic future simulations (2015-2050)(DLEM forced by projected climate and land use scenarios)

Theme 3 – Attribution: Factorial (natural/climate vs. anthropogenic) simulations (DLEM Factorial simulation experiments forced by individual or combined factors)

Theme 4 – Decision Support: Alternative management scenario simulations(DLEM forced by alternative management scenario)

DLEM simulation implementation for the NOAA Project

Other ongoing relevant work

Scale adaptive gas emission model

The new water transport model extend the biogeochemical processes within the grid cell, it could be used to reduce the scale effect of the large scale gas emission simulations such as NH3 or N2O emission.

Decision support model

Develop a sub-model with LID and BMP controls (methods generalized from SWMM or SUSTAIN model) and incorporate into DLEM.

We plan to use swarm intelligence algorithms (such as genetic algorithm or ant-colony algorithm) to balance the benefit gain from BMP/LID facilities and the cost by calculating the local optimization.

Documents

The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM): Overview€¦ · The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM): Overview ... Climate Data (PRISM Climate Data) • Covering the period of 1895