The Fate of Abyei Referendum at the Crossroad

7/30/2019 The Fate of Abyei Referendum at the Crossroad

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The Fate of Abyei Referendum at the CrossroadBy

Luka Biong DengFellow at Harvard Kennedy School

[email protected]

Published by the New Nation NewspaperJuba, South Sudan, August 2013

The Ngok Dinka of Abyei are expected to determine the final status of their area

in October 2013 as proposed by the AU Panel and accepted by the African

Union Peace and Security Council. However, Sudan continues to reject the

conduct of Abyei Referendum as agreed upon by the AU. This raises a question

of what will happen in October 2013 if the AU and the UN are unable to take

affirmative action to ensure the conduct of the referendum on time.

Importantly, what will the people of Abyei and the South do as Sudan

continues to refuse the AU proposal and the inability of the internationalcommunity to deliver on its promise of referendum for the people of Abyei?

I had a chance of attending the meeting of the AU Council in July 2013 that

discussed the report of the AU Panel on Sudan and South Sudan. In thisreport, the AU Panel headed by President Mbeki stated it very clearly that Formany residents of Abyei, who have lived through repeated failures toimplement past agreements, there appears to be no further patience to delaythe implementation of a final settlement. The AU Panel concluded in its reportthat it has no any other option except to recommend to the AU Council the fullimplementation of its proposal on the final status of Abyei and in accordance

with the proposed timetable, unless the two countries present agreedamendments to the proposal.

In fact President Mbeki said it all in his report as there is no patience left withthe people of Abyei and their dream of having a referendum in October 2013should not be deferred again. The recent report by Enough Project on thetimeline of events towards Abyei Referendum in October 2013 paints theprolonged suffering and disappointment sustained by the people of Abyei whilewaiting from the international community to realize their dreams ofreferendum. The recent press release by Kush Inc. shows exceptionally highnumber (about 40 percent) of the Ngok Dinka of Abyei who suffered from the

Post-Traumatic Disorder illness.

Despite this apparent clarity provided by the AU Panel on Abyei, the AUCouncil decided again in its meeting in July 2013 to defer the proposal to thetwo Presidents to resolve their differences in the proposal. Indeed this decision


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provides Sudan with another chance to dash the dreams of the Ngok Dinka tohave their referendum carried out in October 2013.

As the month of October is now approaching, the fate of Abyei referendum is at

the crossroad. In fact the South Sudan parliament held special secession inJune 2013 after the assassination of Ngok Dinka Paramount Chief Kuol Deng

and urged the government to ensure the conduct of Abyei Referendum in

October 2013. With improved relations between the two countries after the

formation of new cabinet of the South, the expected visit by President Salva to

Khartoum may provide the last window of opportunity for the two Presidents to

agree on the conduct of Abyei referendum in October.

However, one is not optimistic that the two Presidents will agree on the conduct

of Abyei referendum in October but instead Bashir may insist on the

partitioning of Abyei. The closed circles to Bashir indicated that he is confidentthat he can now strike a deal with President Salva on the pending issues since

those he perceived as radicals and extremists of the SPLM are now out of the

government. One diplomat in Khartoum confided to me that there is growing

feeling in the NCP that the issue of Abyei may have a chance to be resolved

since none of the extremists of Abyei in the SPLM such as Deng Alor, Edward

Lino and Luka Biong is in the new cabinet of the South.

One is confident that President Salva will not accept further partitioning of

Abyei area after the ruling of the Hague International Court of Arbitration. In

fact what President Salva can achieve from his next meeting with Bashir is to

agree not to agree on the AU Proposal on Abyei and to agree to defer the

proposal to the AU for the final decision. This will leave President Salva with no

any other option except to push the AU to endorse the AU Panels Proposal on

Abyei or to resort to International Court of Justice.

If Bashir rejected again the AU Proposal on Abyei, it would indeed be shameful

and disgraceful if the AU Council could fail again to endorse the proposal. The

AU Council has given enough time almost one year since its acceptance of the

proposal in October 2012 for the two Presidents to agree on the proposal.

Within this one year, the AU Council has tried its level best and as demanded

by Sudan to resolve the issue of Abyei within the context of the AU rather than

deferring it to the UN Security Council.

If the AU Council is keen on providing African solutions for African problems,

one would expect the Council to decide in its next meeting the immediate


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formation of Abyei Referendum Commission and joint administrative

mechanisms to support the conduct of Abyei Referendum within a period not

exceeding one year. Specifically, the AU Council is expected to ask the AU

Commission to appoint the Chair of Abyei Referendum Commission and the

two countries to avail within specific period their two nominees to the

membership of the commission. If either of the two countries failed to avail

their nominees, the AU Council will be left with no any other option but to

endorse and forward the proposal on Abyei to the UN Security Council for

endorsement and implementation under Chapter VII of its Charter.

President Salva has repeatedly said that the issue of Abyei will not take the

South again into war with Sudan as it can easily be resolved within

international mechanisms. As South Sudan is now a member of the UN

together with Sudan, it has an option of summiting its dispute with Sudan over

Abyei to the International Court of Justice as the UN principal judicial organ.In fact the South, in lieu of a referendum to determine the final status of Abyei,

has a legal claim over Abyei as part of its territory. There is no dispute that

Abyei was a territory of the South and there is no dispute that the area of Abyei

as defined by the Hague International Court of Arbitration is the area that was

unilaterally transferred by the colonial administration in 1905 from the South.

If Bashir again rejected the proposal and the AU is unable to endorse the

proposal till October, then the Ngok Dinka of Abyei, as the main targets of the

referendum, are left with no option except to express their views about the final

status of their area. When the simultaneous conduct of Abyei Referendum withthat of the South on 9th January 2011 was obstructed by Sudan, the nine Ngok

Dinka Chiefdoms made necessary community consultation to declare their

views about the final status of their area on the same day of the conduct of

South Sudan referendum.

In last minute President Salva sent a delegation headed by the SPLM Secretary

General Pagan Amum and Deng Alor to urge the people of Abyei not to make

such declaration and to allow the smooth conduct of the referendum of the

South on 9th January 2011. The delegation made a commitment that the South

after the referendum would ensure the conduct of Abyei referendum. It isalmost approaching three years when the people of Abyei were asked by the

South and SPLM not to unilaterally declare the final status of their area, yet

there is no hope for a referendum to be agreed upon by the two countries.


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In fact the South and international community will not have a moral ground or

justification not to allow the people of Abyei to express their views of the final

status of their area if they do not have any alternative to offer to the people of

Abyei. As the two countries have virtually reached political stalemate over

Abyei and while the AU is to take final decision on the proposal, the people of

Abyei are left with no any other option but to self-determine the final status of

their area. This option of unilateral declaration by the Ngok Dinka of the final

status of their area can only be avoided if the AU could endorse the proposal

and UN to declare Abyei area as UN protectorate area until a referendum is

conducted to determine its final status.

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The Fate of Abyei Referendum at the Crossroad