The Future Climate of Amazonia Report

8/10/2019 The Future Climate of Amazonia Report

1/42

The Future

Climate of

Amazonia!"#$%'#" )**$**+$%& ,$-./&

!"#$"%$ '$"(#$ )$*+,

),)!+#%-./(-%0" 1,2% $"(/

!3(45"%-(


2/42

So Jos dos Campos SP, Brazil - October 2014


3/42

* Antonio Donato Nobre (curriculum Lattes) studies the Earth system through an interdisciplinary approach and works to popularize science. He has been a senior researcher at the National InstitAmazonian Research (INPA) since 1985 and has worked since 2003 at the National Institute of Space Research (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais).

** The Earth System Science Center (Centro de Cincia do Sistema Terrestre) is a new department at INPE for interdisciplinary research on the Earth as a System.

!"# %&'&(#

)*+,-'# ./0,-1.2+-

Scientic Assessment Report

Antonio Donato Nobre! #$%&'()(*+,$(+ *- ../0&&1.02345#6

'()(*+,$(+ *- 1.02345#7

Patronage:7+-2,89*,2:; '(*?:;2,* @7'7A

Institutional Support:

6*+-$ /B)-(> /,2(;,( .(;-(+ @../0A

5*-2=;*9 4;)-2-8-( =C /D*,( '()(*+,$ @45#6A

5*-2=;*9 4;)-2-8-( =C 7>*?=;2*; '()(*+,$ @45#7A

Strategic Partnership:

7E2;* *;F 7E2;* 7>(+2,*)

G8;F= H*9(

G8;F*IJ= /K=99

Support:

4;)-2-8-= /=,2=*>L2(;-*9

#+=M(-=) '2=) H=*F=+()

NNG
http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?metodo=apresentar&id=K4786428H1http://www.ccst.inpe.br/http://www.ccst.inpe.br/http://buscatextual.cnpq.br/buscatextual/visualizacv.do?metodo=apresentar&id=K4786428H1


4/42

Executive summary

This assessment of the future of the Amazons climateconsists of a concise review and synthesis of the scien-tic literature combined with an analytic interpretationof the key issues on the subject.

While focusing on the science, the report is couched inaccessible language and adopts a holistic perspective,seeking to put numerous sources and expert analysesinto a single coherent picture of the Amazon ecosystem.

The report seeks to trace the climatic potential of theworlds greatest remaining rainforest, its critical func-tions for human society and its destruction throughdeforestation and re. It further discusses what needsto be done to stop the runaway train that the climatehas become since human occupation in forest areas.

Since the subject is vast, it needs to be examined in

chronological sequence.

! The text begins with an overview of the key fac-tor in geological history: the network of Amazonianbiodiversity, which developed its current function-

al capacities over tens of millions of years.Life pro-cesses that operate in rainforests have developedan almost incomprehensible complexity, with anastronomical number of beings working togetherlike gears linked into a phenomenal environmentalregulation machine.

# It goes on to describe the capabilities of the rest in its virgin state: the Amazon forest -theocean1- and its relationship with the atmosph

gaseous-ocean-, with which it exchanges gases

and energy, and with the Atlantic -the blue-o

the primary source and nal repository of the

that irrigates the continent.Ever since the stuHumboldt, modern science and traditional inous knowledge have claried important myregarding the powers of the great rainforesthe elements that make up the Earths climaexplore ve discoveries important to Amaecohydrology.

Unraveling the mysteries of the Amazon

The rst mystery involves the humidity thrainforest maintains in moving air, and which

rain to mainland areas that are located far frooceans. This occurs due to the innate ability oto transfer large volumes of water from the the atmosphere through transpiration.

The second mystery concerns the formatabundant rainfall in clean air. Amazonian treevolatile substances that act as precursors odensation nuclei for water vapor. The efficiethese particles in cloud nucleation results in band bountiful rainfall.

1 The metaphorical expression green-ocean describes the ocean-like characteristics of this continental expanse covered by dense forests. The importance of this new and unusual concept lies in its suggforest surface, lying down below the atmosphere, where vastness, wetness and windy exchange resemble closely characteristics akin to the actual oceans.2 Alexander von Humboldt, inuential German scientist-naturalist, who explored the Americas at the turn of the 18 thcentury to the 19 thcentury, considered the father of sciences such as geography, phrology and ecology.

The Future Climate of Amazonia 6O(,8-2E( )8>


5/42

The third mystery is related to the rainforests ca-pacity to survive climatic cataclysms and its formi-dable powers to sustain a benecial hydrologicalcycle, even under unfavorable external conditions.According to the biotic pump theory3, profuse treetranspiration, combined with very strong conden-sation in the formation of clouds and rainfall acondensation far greater than that which occursover adjacent oceans leads to a reduction in at-mospheric pressure over the forest which, in turn,draws moist air over the oceans inland, maintainingrainfall levels under most circumstances.

The fourth mystery explains why the southern por-tion of South America on the eastern side of the An-des is not a desert, as is the case with other areasat the same latitudes both west of the Andes andon other continents. The Amazon rainforest not only

keeps the air moist for its own purposes, but also ex-ports water vapor via aerial rivers, which carry thewater that will produce the abundant rainfall that ir-rigates distant regions during the summer months.

The fth mystery provides the reason why the Am-azon and the oceans nearby do not allow certainatmospheric phenomena, such as hurricanes andextreme weather events, to propagate. Spatiallyuniform condensation over the wrinkled forest can-opy precludes the concentration of wind power in

damaging vortices like hurricanes or tornadoes onland, while the depletion of atmospheric moisture

by lateral transport from over the ocean deprivesthe storms of their food (water vapor) in the oceanicregions adjacent to big forests.

All these effects together combine to make the ma-jestic Amazon rainforest the very best and mostvalued partner for all human activities that requiremeasured amounts of rain, a mild climate, and pro-tection against extreme events.

$ The report continues with a description of the ef-fects of deforestation and re on climate: the dev-astation of the Amazon rainforest generates a dra-

matically inhospitable climate. Over 20 years ago,climate models predicted various harmful effects ofdeforestation on the climate, and these have beenconrmed by observations. Among these effectsare drastic, widespread decreases in forest transpi-

ration, changes in the dynamics of clouds and rain,and the extended duration of the dry season. Oth-er side-effects that had not been predicted, suchas the damaging effects of smoke and soot on rainprocesses, have also been observed, even over un-disturbed green-oceanrainforest areas.

The damage inicted on the Amazon climate by de-forestation, re, smoke and soot is already glaringlyapparent in both scientic eld measurements andin leading climate-modelling scenarios. Analysis

based on updated climate models and on new phys-ical theory predicts a worse future. The major factor

affecting climate that emerges from this anathe severe cumulative extent of deforestatarea measured up to 2013 in the Brazilian Amanearly 763,000 km2(the combined area of twmanys or two Japans). This surface measurfurthermore, needs to be added to the impacteof the little studied and seldom-mentioned exforest degradation (estimated to exceed 1.2 km2) that is likely to be a factor inuencing cli

% The report continues by relating the greenrainforest and deforestation in the context ger periods of time: vegetation-climate equiteetering on the brink of the abyss.Climate mthat are interactively linked to vegetation mcan be used to explore which surface-areasferent types of vegetation and what climatetions are capable of generating stable clima

etation equilibria.

For Amazonia, current models project the pity of two equilibrium points: one that favoforest (humid, the current and historical stateAmazon basin) and another that favors the sa(drier, the current conditions in the cerrado4tentially bleak future for the Amazon basin).

A point of concern behind these modeling exis the clear indication that a reduction of ap

mately 40% of the rainforest may trigger ascale transition to a savanna equilibrium, i

3 (Makarieva & Gorshkov, 2007) Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land.4 N. of T. The cerradois a type of savanna existing in the Brazilian territory

The Future Climate of Amazonia 6O(,8-2E( )8>


6/42


7/42

Acknowledgments

Thanks to everyone who contributed to the input of qualied information to this report, especially Enas Salati

torical isotopic studies; Martin Hodnett, Jos Marengo and Celso Randow for evapotranspiration data; Digene

and Dalton Valeriano for deforestation data; Jos Marengo for focused and very useful warnings; Anita Drum

calculations on ocean evaporation; Antonio Manzi, who raised issues on the global circulation; Victor Gorshk

Anastassia Makarieva for solution on those issues and crucial corrections on the atmosphere physics; Claudio

for helping to put preservation issues into perspective; Elisangela Broedel for the critical review of deforestati

tree destruction data; Yosio Shimabukuro and Scott Saleska for information related to surface area of Amazon

tree density; Gilvan Sampaio for corrections to the text on the vegetation-climate equilibrium models; Meirat A

and Steven Wofsy for references and guidance on atmospheric chemistry; German Poveda for references and

referring glaciers on the Andes; Suprabha Sechan for rising the difficulty with technology; the excellent criticis

suggestions made by commentators and the audience at the 3rd Pan-Amazon meeting of ARA, in Lima, Pequestions and reactions of the public at the debate carried out by Nossa So Paulo and the Ethos Institute on th

crisis in the metropolitan region of So Paulo; Srgio Guimares, Mrcio Santilli, Paulo Nobre, Tasso Azevedo, A

Cuartas, Lou Gold, Foster Brown, Claudio Maretti, Victor Gorshkov, Anastassia Makarieva, Stephan Schwartzm

Robert Harriss for excellent and inspired reviews; Marcos Losekann and Gerard and Margi Moss for their thoug

voking questions, which led to improvements in the text; Marcelo Leite for the sober professional and high-

review, essential for adjusting and improving the text; Jaime Gesisky and Moema Ungarelli for care and accu

the nal review; Felipe Horst for the lovely layout of the report; Margi Moss for her stellar revision of style and

American Journal Experts for the base translation from Portuguese; the Articulacin Regional Amaznica for co

sioning the study; and the Executive Secretariat of ARA, especially Srgio Guimares and Claudio Oliveira, for t

stant support and encouragement. Special thanks go to INPE/CCST and INPA for institutional support; Avina,

Vale and Skoll Foundation for valuable partnership; and ISA, Flying Rivers project and WWF, for their support.


8/42

Contents

Introduction Forest technology is irreplaceable

1) Forests generate a friendly climate: ve mysteries claried

1.1) Recycling of moisture: forest geysers

1.2) Cloud nucleation: the pixie dustover the green ocean

1.3) Biotic moisture pump: donate water to receive rain

1.4) Aerial rivers: fresh water through airborne arteries

1.5) Wrinkled canopy: wind-break

2) Deforestation leads to an inhospitable climate: without trees, the sun cannot be blocked

2.1) Virtual deforestation: simulating the annihilation of trees

2.2) Real deforestation: eagle eyes in space

3) The Achilles heel of Amazonia: the invincible hero falls

3.1) Point of no return: the misstep into the abyss

3.2) Savannization and desertification: extensive or unthinkable damage?

4) The future climate of Amazonia: it has already arrived

4.1) Climate reciprocity: cumulative deforestation demands immediate payment

4.2) Order of urgency: better late than never

5) Forests of opportunities: ve steps towards climate recovery

5.1) Popularize forest science: knowledge is power

5.2) Zero deforestation: start yesterday

5.3) Put an end to fires, smoke and soot: call the fire department!

5.4) Recover deforestat ion liability: the phoenix rises from the ashes

5.5) Governments and society need to wake up: reality shock

Conclusions

Epilogue: Prologue of a new era

References


9/42

The Future Climate of Amazonia /,2(;-2C2, 7))())>(;- '(D=+-

IntroductionForest technology5is irreplaceable

5 For lack of better term, the metaphorical use of technologywants to indicate a (non human) natural dimension of incredible complexity and sophistication existing in living sys -tems, which operates automatically at nano-scale (billionths of a meter), so to create and maintain habitability and comfort. Arthur C. Clark third law states, Any sufficiently advancedtechnology is indistinguishable from magic.Natures technology is inconceivably advanced.6 Molecular biology animations: http://www.johnkyrk.com/index.pt.html, in English; several languages available.7 Biotic Regulation of the Environment: http://www.bioticregulation.ru/, in English.

Loosely dened, the rainforest is a multicolored, ex-tremely rich, structured living carpet. It is an extrav-agant colony of organisms that climbed out of theocean 400 million years ago and migrated to land.Conditions inside forest leaves resemble primordi-al marine life. The rainforest canopy functions like avery elaborate adapted sea suspended in the air that

contains a myriad of living cells. Having evolved overthe last 50 million years, the Amazon rainforest is thelargest technology park the Earth has ever known be-cause each of its organisms (numbering among tril-lions) is a marvel of miniaturization and automation.At room temperature, using biochemical mechanismsof almost inaccessible complexity, life continually pro-cesses atoms and molecules thereby determining andregulating the ow of substances and energy.

The comfortable climate that

we enjoy on Earth, which isunknown in other celestialbodies, can be largely at-tributed (in addition to manyother capacities) to the liv-

ing organisms capable of performing photosynthesis.Carbon dioxide (CO

2) serves as food for plants, acting

as the raw material that is transformed, via biochem-ical processes using both light and water, into wood,leaves, fruits and roots. When plants consume CO

2, its

concentration in the atmosphere decreases.

When this happens, the planet initially cools reducing plant growth and consumption oThe subsequent accumulation of CO

2leads to

warming and thus the process continues, followoscillating cycle of self-regulation. In this way,work as a thermostat that responds to tempeuctuations by adjusting the concentration o

the primary greenhouse gas in the atmospherwater vapor. However, this temperature regulatthe measured consumption of CO

2is only one o

of lifes mechanisms that result in favorable emental regulation.

As will be seen in this work, rainforests are mucthan an agglomeration of trees, a passive repoof biodiversity or simple carbon storage. Theitechnology and dynamics of interaction with tvironment gives them a certain power over th

ments, an innate and resilient ability to conditiclimate. Thus, forests condition the climate accto what suits them best and they thereby gestability and create a comfort zone, a shelter whables human societies to ourish.

South America is a continent privileged by the sive presence of megabiodiverse forests. It is nodence that this continent had, and still has, onemost favorable climates compared to other lanes. However, over the last 500 years, most of the

!"#$%&% (")*+&+") &,$ (-+.

/0&$ 0(("#*+)1 &" 2,0&%3+&% &,$/ 4$%& 0)* &,$#$45

1$)$#0&$ %&04+-+&5 0)* ("/.

6"#&7 0 %,$-&$# &,0& $)04-$%

human societies to ourish.
http://www.johnkyrk.com/index.pt.htmlhttp://www.bioticregulation.ru/http://www.bioticregulation.ru/http://www.johnkyrk.com/index.pt.html


10/42


8 (Marengo et al., 2013) Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation (Marengo et al., 2011) Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin.9 (Rabatel et al., 2012) Review article of the current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change.10 (Willmot & Webber, 1998) South American Climate Data: http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/, in English.

vegetation outside the Amazon basin has been anni-hilated. For example, the Atlantic Forest has lost morethan 90% of its original coverage. Though perceptible,the effect of this historical deforestation on the climatehas been less noticed than one would expect becausethe warmth and humidity of the wet shadow of theAmazon rainforest has kept the continent reasonably

protected from extreme weather and maintained amild climate. However, over the last 40 years, the lastgreat rainforest, source of the atmospheric water thatsupplies most of the continent, has suffered relentlessdeforestation. Coincidentally, losses due to natural di-sasters induced by climate anomalies have increased,as much due to an excess of rain, heat and wind as to alack of precipitation (droughts)8.

The Andean regions, and even the Pacic coast, whichdepend on glaciers for their water supplies, may be

under threat in the near future because of acceleratedsnowmelt induced by climate warming and becausenearly all the rain that falls on the highest mountains,and replenishes the glaciers every year, originates fromwater vapor emitted by the Amazon forest. East of theAndes, dependence on the Amazon hydrological cycleis immeasurably greater.

The savanna regions in the central-southern portion ofthis region, today home to one of the worlds largestproduction belts of grains and other agricultural goods,

also receives water vapor from the Amazon rainforestthat provides regulated, benign rainfall agricultures

primary ingredient. The tongues of vapor that emergefrom the Amazon during the summer bring essentialrainfall and other benecial inuences to southeast-ern and southern Brazil (where South Americas largestproduction infrastructure is located) and other areas,such as the Pantanal and the Chaco, Bolivia, Paraguayand Argentinas agricultural regions.

This study will rst explain what we know on howthe Amazon rainforest works and how it is able to ex-ist and to persist through geological eras. Then it willshow the effects on the climate that have already beencaused by the ongoing destruction of the natural sys-tem and predictions on what is still to come. Finally,the text will explore the threats to climate balance thatthe alterations already in course may trigger by ana-lyzing lurking climate risks from different perspectives.
http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/


11/42


elaborate representatiovegetation. Scientic about the determining forests in local-, regionaglobal-scale cycles of wa

ergy, carbon and other variables apply to all natuests. However, here we are going to focus more

rainforests of South America, especially the Ama

All climate-modeling studies consider the Amazsin as a whole. However, because there are moavailable for the Brazilian Amazon11, most scstudies have been conducted in this region, espfor monitoring deforestation. Given the importathe entire Amazon basin, i.e., the so-called Pan-Ania, and because the atmosphere and rivers do nabout political boundaries, future observationsping studies and analyses must break through n

boundaries, following the example of projects sRAISG, with its extensive, integrated surveys on pressure on the Amazon12.

1.1) Recycling of moisture: forest geysers

Three hundred years after the European invasionAmericas13, the aura of a Garden of Eden in the t

jungles had already lost its romantic appeal, pbecause of the greedy Spanish conquistadoresof the green hell, an endless, monotonous and d

ous labyrinth that inspired more fear and despa

1) Forests generate a

friendly climate: five

mysteries clarified

11 Dened within what was delineated as Legal Amazon by decree during the Brazilian dictatorship (1964-1985).12 RAISGRed Amaznica de Informacin Socioambietal Georreferenciada [Amazonian Network of Georeferenced Socio-environmental Information]:http://raisg.socioambiental.org/, in Spanish; Atlas under pressure: http://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/les/Amazonia under pressure16_05_2013.pdf, in English.13 (Gambini, 2000) Espelho ndio: a formao da alma brasileira [Indian mirror - the making of the Brazilian soul].

83$ &" 0 -0#1$ 0)* 1#"2.

+)1 4"*5 "6 $9+*$)($7 2$

)"2 :)"2 &,$ 9+&0- #"-$

"6 9$1$&0&+") +) /0)5

climate processes.

Seeking to elucidate mysteries, a scientists work doesnot differ greatly from a detectives investigations. Theyexplore clues, analyze evidence, develop theories andbuild up models. In the thrilling deductions of SherlockHolmes, the most intricate cases culminated in simplesolutions. The reality of the natural world appears richand complex, full of mysteries and secrets. However,

the scientic method, spiced by fascination and hu-manized by childish curiosity, opens the gates towardsunderstanding some of the most mysterious phenom-ena that affect our daily lives.

Such phenomena, when claried and explained intheir simplest forms, democratize scientic knowledge,allowing for the development of a new and excitingshared awareness about the world that we inhabit.There are still many mysterious secrets hidden away byNature about how the forest works. Here, we will look

at just ve of them, mysteries that have been solved inrecent decades and are crucial for understanding theroles of forests in generating a friendly climate.

In their eagerness to model the colossal ows of massand energy using computers congured to simulateclimate, meteorologists initially paid little attention tovegetation cover. This approach has radically changed.Due to a large and growing body of evidence, we nowknow the vital role vegetation plays in many climateprocesses. Nearly all climate models, as well as the

most complex models of the earth system, now include
http://raisg.socioambiental.org/http://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/Amazonia%20under%20pressure16_05_2013.pdfhttp://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/Amazonia%20under%20pressure16_05_2013.pdfhttp://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/Amazonia%20under%20pressure16_05_2013.pdfhttp://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/Amazonia%20under%20pressure16_05_2013.pdfhttp://raisg.socioambiental.org/


12/42


and irreversibly dispelled the image of a green para-dise. The verbal bigotry against the wilderness habitat,backed by their self-confessed ignorance as to the in-trinsic value of the forest, in conjunction with the fail-ure of the rubber boom, most likely allowed their leg-acy of values to inuence hearts and minds of futuregenerations.

How much of the subsequent urge to occupy the Am-azon, with the remorseless eradication of the forest, hadits roots in this story? Euclides da Cunha, prefacing hisdisciples book, discredits Humboldts holistic approach(the epistemology of Amazonian science will ourish ifone worries less about revealing the entire hylaea) andanticipated the reductionist demand to come14.

Studies that nally revealedthe secrets of the great for-

est were slow in coming.Seeking to test preliminary

water balance calculations for the Amazon15that indi-cated signicant water recycling, Enas Salati led ob-servational studies on rainfall and evaporation in the1970s that unequivocally demonstrated how the for-est via moisture recycling keeps the air humid for over3,000 km inland16.

Transpiration: plants do not wear deodorant

#9*;-) )P(*-Q 0$( (E*D=+*-2;< P*-(+ ,==9) L=-$ -$( 9(*E() *;F -$( (;E2R

+=;>(;-Q S=P(E(+! -+*;)D2+*-2=; 2; D9*;-) 2) >8,$ >=+( 2>D=+-*;- -$*; M8)-

-$*-Q 0+*;)D2+*-2=; D+=>=-() -$( )8,-2=; =C ;8-+2(;-R+2,$ )=29 P*-(+ LB -$(

+==-) *;F 8D -$+=82,+=D=+-*9) -= -$( *->=)D$(+( @)-=>*-*A! *99=P2;< P*-(+ E*D=+ -= 9(*E( L8-

*9)= *99=P2;< -$( >=)- ())(;-2*9 =C D(+*-8+()Q

14 Rafael Leandro reects Euclides da Cunhas expression in that preface: the enormity of the forest can only be measured if partitioned only in the late future will one know the secrets of Nature [] The dethe last aspects of the Amazon will represent the conclusion of all natural history(Leandro, 2009) Inferno Verde: Representao Literria da Amaznia na Obra de Alberto Rangel [Green Hell: Literary Rtion of the Amazon in the Work of Alberto Rangel].

15 (Molion 1975) A climatonomic study of the energy and moisture uxes of the Amazon basin with considerations of deforestation effects; (Villa Nova et al. 1976) Estimativa de evapotranspirao na BaAmaznica [Estimate of evapotranspiration in the Amazon Basin]; (Marques et al. 1977) Precipitable water and water vapor ux between Belem and Manaus.

16 (Salati et al, 1979) Recycling of Water in the Amazon Basin: An Isotopic Study.17 Research projects in the Amazon:ARME, NASA-GTE ABLE,ABRACOS,TRACE-A,RBLE, CAMREX, INPA-Max Planck, INPA-ORSTOM, PDBFF, PELD,LBA,LBA-EUSTACH, LBA-CARBONSINK, LBA-CLAIRE, LB

LBA-Barca, LBA-DMIP, GEWEX, ISLSCP, GEOMA,PPBio, Rainfor,AmazonFlux, AMAZE,Amazon Pire, Amazalert,AMAZONICA,Changing Amaznia,ATTO, ACRIDICON-CHUVA , GreenOceanAmazonetc. Wgreat LBA project alone, 217 research subprojectswere developed over 16 years of operation.

;,$ #$(5(-+)1 "6 /"+%&3#$

6#"/ &,$ #0+) 45 6"#$%& $90


13/42


Just like a buildingmany oors, one squater of ground in the A

may support up to 10 square meters of intricatesurface distributed at different levels in the cano

explains the fact that a forested land surface canorate as much water as the liquid surface of an oca lake (in which 1 m2of evaporating surface cowith the same 1 m2of geometric surface).

Duly corroborating these amazing facts, a study ly published in the scientic journal Nature21 hvanced our understanding of the extraordinary tance of global vegetation in transferring water bthe atmosphere: nearly 90% of all water that rethe atmosphere from the continents does so vi

After clouds precipitate their precious liquid over theforest, much of the water trickles through the cano-py and inltrates the permeable forest bed where it isstored in porous soil or, deeper down, in large aquifersacting as veritable underground oceans of freshwater.

The water from the soil begins its return journey to the

atmosphere by being absorbed by deep and sophis-ticated suction devices, i.e., plant roots. It then deesgravity and rises to heights of 40 to 60 m (or more) inelaborate pipelines in the xylem of tree trunks. Finally,the water goes through the laminar evaporating struc-tures of the leaves, which are versatile chemical solarpanels capable of absorbing energy from the sun andtaking advantage of the winds caresses to transpireand transfer copious amounts of water vapor into theatmosphere, thus completing the vertical cycle thatbegan with the rain.

A large tree can pumpfrom the soil and transpireover a thousand liters of

water in a single day18. Amazonia is home to hundredsof billions of trees in its forests. Twenty billion tons ofwater is transpired per day by all the trees in the Ama-zon basin19. As a whole, these trees - those benevolentsilent green structures of nature -, act like geysersandspout a vertical river of vapor into the air that is evengreater than the Amazon River.20

Vapor !"#$"%: greater than the Amazon River

/((K2;< * )2>D9( P*B -= W8*;-2CB -$( >*))2E( C=+()- -+*;)D2+*-2=

*F( +(E(*92;< ,*

-2=;) 2; UXXY 2; ,=;M8;,-2=; P2-$ 7F+2*;* .8*+-*)Q Z)2;< (E*D=+*

collected from ux towers as part of the LBA project (an average

mm per day, or 3.6 liters per mUA! P( ()-2>*-(F -$( -=-*9 *>=8;-

owing daily from the soil to the atmosphere through the trees. T

9*-2=; C=+ -$( P$=9( +*2;C=+()-! ,=E(+2;< [Q[ >2992=; K>U2; -$( 7>

)2;! +()89-(F 2; -$( *)-+=;=>2,*9 ;8>L(+ =C UX L2992=; -=;) =C P*-(

D2+(F D(+ F*B @=+ UX -+2992=; 92-(+)AQ 0$2) P=89F L( =E(+ UU L2992=; 92

,=;)2F(+ *99 C=+()-) 2; (W8*-=+2*9 /=8-$ 7>(+2,* *;F U[ L2992=; @=+

P( ,=;)2F(+(F -$( C=+()-) 2; -$(2+ D+2)-2;( )-*-( 2; \[XX\]Q G=+ ,=>

D8+D=)()^ -$( E=98>( =C P*-(+ F2),$*+*?=; '2E(+

7-9*;-2, T,(*; 2) )92=+( -$*; \Y L2992=; -=;) D(+ F*BUXQ

18 Assuming a crown area with a radius of 10 m, 324.2 mx 3.6 liters/m= 1131.1 transpired liters in one day.19 Based on the recent forested area in the Amazon river basis, 5.5 x 1012mx 3.6 liters/m= 19.8 x 10liters (~20 x 10tons). The forest area in the Amazon (sensu latissimoEva et al, 2005, A proposal for dening t

graphical Boundaries of Amaznia), including wet, dry andooded forests = 6,280,468 km2, or 6.280468 x 1012m2x 3.6 liters/m2= 22.6096848 x 1012liters (22.61 x 109tons). Based on the historical area covered(area with forest in 2004 Eva et al., 2005- more clear cut deforestation until 2004, Alves 2007) = 6,943,468 km 2, or 6.943468 x 1012m2x 3.6 liters/m2= 25 x 1012liters (25 x 109tons).

20 The ow rate of the Amazon River at the mouth is 2 x 10 5m3/second x 86400 seconds/day = 17.28 x 10 9m3/day.21 (Jasechko et al., 2013) Terrestrial wateruxes dominated by transpiration.

;2$)&5 4+--+") &")% "6 20&$# +%

)%


14/42


most of the blue oceantowards aridity, with vtle rainfall whilst mostgreen-oceanendures co

torrential rainfall. This rainfall used to be so plentibefore the advance of deforestation, it was oftethat there were only two seasons in the Amazon, w

wetter. Now, there is a pronounced dry season, aduration of the wet season diminishes progressiv

Clouds are clusters of small water droplets suspin the air. Visible droplets condense from waterwhich is invisible to the naked eye, at sufficientemperatures. However, temperature alone does tiate the condensation process. A solid or liquid that works as a seed for the deposition of vapocules must also initially be present. These seeds, densation nuclei, are generally atmospheric ae

dust particles, pollen, salt grains, soot and many o

However, aerosols are found in low concentover the green-ocean, a condition that is similarblue ocean. If the cleanliness of the air can be aced, on the one hand, to the effect of a carpet offorest keeping the dust down and, on the otheto the cleansing of the air by the constant rainfathe green-ocean, how does such abundant raincur without the usual seeds for nucleation?

When studying carbon dioxide exchanges using

ers, Brazilian scientists from INPA and USP and Eu

transpiration; only slightlymore than 10% reaches theatmosphere through simpleevaporation without the me-

diation of plants. Because this transfer by transpirationoccurs due to substantial surface energy absorption,plants are able to interfere greatly with rainfall, winds

and the weather.

Water transfer to the atmosphere requires energy. Letus look at a close parallel. To generate much-neededelectricity, there is much talk about harnessing ener-gy from the waters of the Amazon. However, hydraulicenergy from falling river water only exists because thatwater was lifted up and transported by the atmosphereto the upper headwaters. The transpiration of trees,which is a vital link in the water cycle, consumes solarenergy as water is pumped out of the soil and during

transpiration. The trees thus function as elevators thatlift and launch water high into the atmosphere; this wa-ter can later return to the ground as rain, transferring aportion of the built-in solar energy in the water vaporto potential energy in the water that lls the reservoirsof hydroelectric dams.

1.2) Cloud nucleation: the &'('" *+$,

over the green ocean

Returning colossal volumes of water vapor into the at-

mosphere is only the

rst part of the recipe to makeand maintain plentiful, benign rains. In 1999, one of

Climate power of the forest

S=P >8,$ (;(+ -$( /8; 2) ,=;)8>(F -= (E*D=+*-( UX -+2992=; 92-(+) =C

P*-(+ D(+ F*B_ 0= *D*+( -$2) -= -$( (;(+(8> ,*D*,2-B C=+ \a[ B(*+) C=+ -$(

K(--9( -= (E*D=+*-( -$( *>=8;- =C P*-(+ (W82E*9(;- -= -$*- -+*;)D2+(F 2; M8)-

=;( F*B 2; -$( 7>*?=;Q 79-(+;*-2E(9B! -= ,=>D(-( P2-$ -$( 7>*?=;b) -+(()

*;F F= -$( M=L 2; =;( F*B! 2- P=89F L( ;(,())*+B -= ,=>L2;( -$( (9(,-+2,2-B

produced by 50,000 power plants like Itaipu (or 200,000 like Belo Monte on

-$( c2;D*+2)=; )$=P) ,9(*+9B -$*- -$( *;

)-+8,-8+() *+( >2,+=),=D2, L()2F( -$( ,92>*-( D=P(+ =C -$( C=+()-Q

>-0)& )%


15/42


scientists from the Netherlands, Germany and Italy col-laborated on the LBA project to also investigate the ex-change of other carbon-containing gases produced byplants and to assess if these gases are important forthese exchanges. These other gases are the scents ofthe forest, and are also called biogenic volatile organiccompounds (BVOCs25). Just as an open perfume bottle

loses liquid via evaporation and the perfume is diffusedinto the ambient air, a variety of organic substancesevaporate from leaves and enter the atmosphere.

In terms of mass, the amountof carbon lost to the atmo-sphere through these organ-ic gases is small. However,a group led by Meinrat An-

dreae from the Max Planck Institute, which studies thechemistry of gases in the atmosphere, investigated the

effects of these aromas when mixed with Amazon airand unlocked the mystery of cloud nucleation in thisregion26. BVOCs (such as isoprene, terpenes and manyothers), in a humid atmosphere and in the presenceof solar radiation, oxidize and precipitate to form veryne dust particles with an affinity for water (hygro-scopic) that act as efficient cloud condensation nuclei.Poetically speaking, this is the pixie dustthat magicallyappears in the moisture-laden air, and causes rain tobucket down from low clouds, i.e., the watering cansof the Garden of Eden. While BVOCs exist in the form

25 Biogenic Volatile Organic Carbons: these compounds are considered biogenic because they are synthesized by living organisms, like the scents of plants. There are other volatile organic compounds that arenon-biogenic, which are simply called VOCs, e.g., paint solvent.

26 (Pschl et al., 2010) Rainforest aerosols as biogenic nuclei of clouds and precipitation in the Amazon, (Clayes et al., 2004) Formation of secondary organic aerosols through photooxidation of isoprene. Release:Max Planck Institute news, Astonishing Discovery over the Amazonian Rain Forest: http://www.mpg.de/495047/pressRelease20040224, in English.

27 For example: (Rummel et al., 2007) Seasonal variation of ozone deposition to a tropical rain forest in southwest Amazonia.28 (Nobre, 2005) Is the Amazon Forest a Sitting Duck for Climate Change? Models Need yet to Capture the Complex Mutual Conditioning between Vegetation and Rainfall.

E) ,3/+* 0+# 0)* %3)-+1,&7


16/42


from observations and model results discussed in sev-eral studies, I pondered the trending question at thetime: with global warming, will the rainforest in theAmazon wither and die?

Over thousands29or, most likely, even millions of years30,the South American rainforest has evolved its lush bio-

ta with no signs of having ever been halted by extremeweather, such as drought or freezing. However, over thesame time period, it is unlikely that the impact of exter-nal climate to the continent has remained benign, espe-cially considering cosmic interferences and their knownrelationships with pronounced global climate changes31.

In the face of external climate adversity, how could thismagnicent biome resist extinction? There are suffi-cient lines of evidence indicating that the biosphere isable not only endure but can also change, modulate

and even regulate its own environment32

.

The rainforests of South Amer-ica are among the most dense,diverse and complex terrestri-al biomes on the planet. Basedon rainfall mechanisms in thegreen-ocean, one can imaginehow these forests can regulate

Amazonia, the worlds heart

S=P ,*; P( 8;F(+)-*;F P*-(+ ,2+,89*-2=; LB 9==K2;< *- -$( 9*;F),*

N*-(+ 2++229*+ P*B -= L9==F! P$2,$

*;F F+*2;) L=FB -2))8()Q 4C +2E(+) *+( *;*9=D -$(=+B (OD9*2;) -$*- -$( D=P(+ D+=

-$( P2;F) *;F ,$*;;(92;< -$( *(+2*9 +2E(+) >8)- L( *--+2L8-(F -= -$(

+*2;C=+()-! P$2,$ C8;,-2=;) *) -$( $(*+- =C -$( P*-(+ ,B,9(Q

29 (Baker et al., 2001) The history of South American tropical precipitation for the past 25,000 years.30 (Hooghiemstra et al., 2002) Evolution of forests in the northern Andes and Amazonian lowlands during the Tertiary and Quaternary.31 (Berger and Yin, 2012) Astronomical Theory and Orbital Forcing.

32 (Foley and Costa, 2003) Green surprise? How terrestrial ecosystems could aff

ect earths climate; (Gorshkov et al., 2004) Revising the fundamentals of ecological knowledge: the biotaenvironment interaction;(Pielke and Avissar, 1998) Interactions between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems: inuence on weather and climate.33 (Poveda and Mesa, 1997) Feedbacks between hydrological processes in tropical South America and large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena.34 (Gorshkov et al., 2000) Biotic Regulation of the Environment: Key Issues of Global Change.35 (Makarieva and Gorshkov, 2007) Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land.36 (Makarieva et al., 2013) Where do winds come from?37 Already considering and excluding the effects of global circulation associated with inertial movements and accelerations.

= 6"#$%&$* #$1+") 1$).

$#0&$% 60# /"#$ (")*$).

%0&+") +) &,$ 6"#/ "6 #0+)


17/42


that atmospheric water continues to be importebalancing the drought and ensuring forest conThe biotic pump theory is steadily gaining acceptand already has observational evidence40.

1.4) Aerial rivers: fresh water through airborne ar

A glance at a world map reveals interesting arments and symmetries in the distribution of foredeserts around the globe, with three specic beparticularly attract our attention: a belt of forest athe Equator and two of desert around the Tropics cer and of Capricorn. This geography of contrastinscapes is easily explained by the Hadley Circulatio

The incident solar radiationequatorial zone is greateat higher latitudes; the

due to physical effects, thgreat updraft of air in this

which cools and leads to the formation of rain, fathe proliferation of forests. The air that has risesubsequently lost its moisture needs to go someso, in both hemispheres, it moves toward the suics. When it descends again and warms up, this absorbs moisture from the surface, which favocreation of deserts.

However, there are exceptions to this general ru

the southern-central portion of South America 38 (Saleska et al., 2007) Amazon forests green-up during 2005 drought.39 For example: (Sheil and Murdiyarso, 2009) How Forests Attract Rain: An Examination of a New Hypothesis.40 (Poveda et al., 2014) Seasonal precipitation patterns along pathways of South American low-level jets and aerial rivers.41 Hadley cell denition: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell,in English.

Under the inuence of

&,$ H0*-$5 (+#(3-0&+")7

&,$ %"3&,.($)-


18/42


mighty Amazon River (which has a ow rate of 2lion liters per second, or 17 billion tons per day).

Nearly three decadeSalatis ndings, Jos go et al.46 described tculation that connec

moisture-laden tradefrom the equatorial Awith the winds that blo

the Amazon as far as the Andes, and from there, ding on the season, over to the southern part ofAmerica. Although the authors framed their ndthe context oflow-level jets, the concept is very to that of atmospheric rivers. As per their explanasystem of monsoons similar to that in Asia also opin South America. Due to the effects of the rainforeest geysers) and of the Andes (a 6-km high barri

persistent moist Amazonian air makes a bend neand, during the summer, carries copious amountster vapor down to the afore-mentioned lucky qugle, contrarying the trend towards aridity in this re

Josena Arraut47et al. recently conducted a cllogical review of aerial rivers over South Americmating the associated vapor transport and introa new concept of aerial lakes, places that accuatmospheric backwater and hold stocks of preble water vapor.

Flying rivers: telling a lovely story

In 2006, contemplating the Amazon forest from the top of an LBA projR

ect study tower, we exchanged the rst ideas that led to the adventure,

+()(*+,$! =8-+(*,$ *;F (;E2+=;>(;-*9 (F8,*-2=; D+=M(,- '2=) H=*F=+()

dG9B2;< '2E(+)e P2-$ *E2*-=+ f(+*+F 1=)) aUQ N2-$ C8;F2;< C+=> #(-+=L+*)

*;F -$( D*+-2,2D*-2=; =C 6;g*) /*9*-2! * D2=;((+ 2; )-8F2() =; >=2)-8+(

+(,B,92;< 2; -$( 7>*?=;! *) P(99 *) =-$(+ 9(*F2;< ),2(;-2)-)! 1=)) C=9R

9=P(F -$( P*-(+ E*D=+ +2E(+) C=+ B(*+) 2; $2) )2;D9() C=+ *;*9B)2)! ,*D-8+2;< -$( D8L92,b) *--(;-2=; 2; -$(*FE(;-8+( $( ,+(*-(FQ 0$( D+=M(,- *9)= F2F *; (O-+*=+F2;*+B M=L 2; (;E2R

+=;>(;-*9 (F8,*-2=; 2; ),$==9) *;F -$+=8=)- E*98*L9( +()89- C+=> -$2) D+=M(,- P*) 2-) *L292-B

-= -=8,$ D(=D9(b) (>=-2=;*9 )2F( -$+=889*-2=;! *FE(;-8+( *;F

scientic engagement, awakening in them a feeling of appreciation for

-$( (;E2+=;>(;-! P*-(+ *;F -$( C=+()-Q

=$#+0- #+9$#% ("))$(& &,$ /"+%.

&3#$.-0*$) *$ 2+)*% 6#"/

&,$ $J30&"#+0- =&-0)&+( 2+&,

&,$ 2+)*% &,0& 4-"2 "9$# &,$

=/0D") 0% 60# 0% &,$ =)*$%7

0)* 6#"/ &,$#$7 *$


19/42


48 (Spracklen et al., 2012) Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests.49 (Makarieva et al., 2008) On the validity of representing hurricanes as Carnot heat engine.50 According to the authors: Thedrivingforce ofall hurricaneprocessesisa rapidrelease,asin compressedspring,of potentialenergypreviouslyaccumulatedin theform ofsaturatedwatervapor inthe atmosphericcolumn

duringa prolongedperiodofwater vaporevaporationundertheaction ofthe absorbedsolarradiation.(Makarieva et al., 2014) Condensational power of air circulation in the presence of a horizontal temperature gradient.51 (Nobre P., 2009a) Peer Review Question Interactive comment on On the validity of representing hurricanes as Carnot heat engine.52 (Gorshkov et al., 2000) Biotic Regulation of the Environment.53 Storm track mapshowing all recorded paths of hurricanes; the equatorial regions containing forests and their oceanic surroundings are free of such storms: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_track Track, in English.54 Flood risk alleviation example: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/URGC-7QJDH7, in English.

disappearance of water vapor in the atmosphere by con-

densation50. Paulo Nobre subsequently presented theauthors with the following problem: The question thatarises is to understand why hurricanes do not develop

over tropical forests, like the Amazon, where supplies of

water vapor provided by the forest and their elimination,

in the form of tropical rain, are so abundant. 51

In response, Makarieva andGorshkov showed why alarge land surface coveredby forest is, theoretically,an impediment to the for-

mation of hurricanes and other anomalous weatherpatterns including droughts and oods. In their expla-nation, localized turbulent friction of the actively trans-piring forest canopy, which results in uniform rainfallrates over large areas, and wind traction due to the

biotic pump over larger distances greatly reduce thechance of forming storms such as tornadoes or hurri-canes. Recorded hurricane paths conrm the milderenvironment that exists in regions covered by exten-sive forests and ocean areas just nearby53.

In addition to all the other services that forests provide forthe climate, they even offer insurance against destructiveweather events, softening the force of wind-borne energy.Other classic functions of forests in regulating the watercycle on land are well known, such as favoring groundwa-ter recharge andood mitigation54, among many others.

Extreme events: lifes checks and balances

N2-$ 2;89*-2=; =C (;(+=)D$(+(! P$2,$ 2;,+(*)() -$( D+=L*L292-B =C >=+( 2;-(;)( ,92>*-(

D$(;=>(;*Q 0$2) -+(;F P*) D+(F2,-(F LB >(-(=+=9=*-( )B)-(> -$*- ,*; (OD9*2; -$( *,,(9(+*-2=; =C

-$()( (CC(,-)Q f(=9=( ,92>*-() $*E( *9+(*FB

=,,8++(F 2; 6*+-$b) $2)-=+B! 9=;< L(C=+( >*;K2;F *DD(*+(FQ S=P(E(+! ,=;R-+*+B -= P$*- =;( P=89F (OD(,- *C-(+ ,*-*,9B)>)! *99 (E2F(;,( *9P*B) D=2;-

-= * +()292(;- )-*L292?2;< +(,=E(+B -$*- 9())(;) -$( (O-+(>()Q #8+(9B ) F= ;=- $*E( -$2) *L292-BQ T;9B 92C( *;F 2-) )(9CR+(*-( $2)-=+BQ[U

;,$ %$#9+($% &,0& &,$ 6"#$%&


20/42


2) Deforestation leads

to an inhospitable

climate

55 (Nobre C. et al., 1991) Amazonian Deforestation and Regional Climate Change.5657 (Sellers et al., 1986) Simple Biosphere Model.5859 (Poveda and Mesa, 1997) Feedbacks between hydrological processes in tropical South America and large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena.

Bearing in mind the extensive, elaborate effects thatforests have on climate as demonstrated by science,what can we expect from the devastation of these for-ests? To assess the impacts of deforestation on climate,a growing number of eld experiments, modeling andobservational studies, and, more recently, theoreti-cal analyses have been made. What are the projected

consequences of deforestation, and what has alreadybeen observed?

2.1) Virtual deforestation: simulating

the annihilation of trees

One of the greatest virtues of climate models is theirability to simulate future scenarios. This type of exer-cise is not predictive in the physical sense; instead, it isthe only tool for analyzing complex systems and mak-ing informed extrapolations in situations where the rel-

evant physical theories are not yet available.

These simulations are valuable for specic situations,such as exploring climate risks associated with defor-estation. In a virtual environment, such as aight simula-tor, it is possible to repeatedly evaluate disaster scenari-os, scrutinizing the decisive factors, the initial conditionsand the potential consequences of risky maneuvers.

In 1991, Carlos Nobre led one of the most cited stud-ies simulating the effects of total deforestation of the

Amazon forest on climate55. Using a general circmodel (GCM56) of the atmosphere coupled withetation module (SiB57), the authors found thatforests were entirely replaced by degraded pasthe model, there was a signicant increase in thage surface temperature (approximately 2.5C)

junction with decreases in annual evapotransp

(30% reduction), rainfall (25% reduction) and srunoff(20% reduction). There was also an increthe duration of the dry season in the southern the Amazon basin.

Over the next two decades, other studies providditional details and more general results that sued these conclusions. A recent literature review58

impacts of tropical deforestation on climate, conthat several GCMs agree that regional-scale deftion would lead to a warmer, drier climate over t

forested area. The models that simulate compleforestation of the Amazon predict a climate waof 0.1-3.8C (average of 1.9C) and a rainfall redof around 140-640 mm per year (average of 32year, or a decrease of 10-15%).

However, deforestation can have much morous implications. In 1997, German Poveda andMesa59 proposed the role of a hydrometeorobridge for the Amazon rainforest, connecting tgreat oceans, suggesting the existence of climat


21/42


include ocean processes suggest even worse condi-tions and sound alarm bells.

However, one must alsoconsider the biotic pumptheory and its predictionsof reduced rainfall. Unlike

conventional numericalmodels, a physical theory builds its blocks of knowl-edge based solely on the fundamental laws of nature.If the theory is correct, it makes it possible to quantita-tively predict physical effects based only on an analysisof relevant scenarios and logic.

Makarieva and Gorshkov predicted that complete de-forestation of the Amazon would reduce rainfall, pri-marily as a result of the dissipation of the low-pressureeffect (suction) associated with condensation, which

is linked to a decrease in surface evaporation. Becausethe biotic pump theory also accredits the availability ofwater vapor for rainfall in the Amazon to the ability ofthe forest to transpire, a total annihilation of the maintranspiration agent could completely stop the bioticpump once and for all.

The theory suggests that when the pump that drawsmoist air to the continent is turned off, the moistureowwould change direction when condensation over theocean became greater (whilst weaker than the bioticpump, the oceaniccondensationpumpis always turnedon), which would lead to arid conditions on land62.

60 (Nobre P. et al., 2009b) Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change in a Coupled Model Simulation.61 Using only the observed historical series of sea surface temperatures.62 Already considering and excluding the effects of global circulation associated with inertial movements and accelerations.

;,$ $-+/+)0&+") "6 &,$ 6"#.

$%& K &,$ /0+) (")&+)$)&0-

(")*$)%0&+") 01$)& K +%

$J3+90-$)& &" %2+&(,+)1 "66 &,$

atmospheric moisture pump.

effects between the two oceans, via the atmosphere,mediated by the rainforest.

Following on a similar direction, Paulo Nobre60 et al.more recently studied the effects of deforestation onrainfall in the Amazon using numerical simulations thatincluded or excluded the responses of the oceans to

deforestation scenarios61. Comparing simulations per-formed with a typical atmospheric GCM and a GCMcoupled to an ocean model that simulates the internalconditions of the oceans (e.g., salinity and currents),these authors found a signicantly greater reductionin precipitation when the GCM coupled to the oceanmodel was run for a complete deforestation scenario inthe Amazon; a 42% decrease in rainfall was projectedwhen taking into account internal ocean mechanisms,compared to a 26% decrease in rainfall when thesemechanisms were not represented in the model. The

oceans have been there all along; including their inter-nal responses allows for more realistic simulations.

Many of the model projections for the consequencesof deforestation have already been observed, especial-ly the expansion of the dry season. However, these vir-tual experiments indicated that a prolonged dry sea-son would occur after the complete destruction of theAmazon forest but in fact it is already being observedafter the clearcutting of just under 19% of the forest.Therefore, these models appear to underestimate thenegative consequences of deforestation in simulatedscenarios. The results of more recent projections that


22/42


and transitory nature of this effect, which basically de-pends on the existence of forests surrounding deforest-ed areas and the extension of these forests. The increasein rainfall becomes a decrease as soon as the survivingforested area crosses a certain threshold of distancefrom the cleared area. From then on, rainfall decreases.

Research by Spracklen etal.65, using satellite data forrainfall and the presence offorest, showed that where

deforestation has occurred, there is a decrease in rain-fall in the downwind direction. In 60% of the tropics,air passing over dense forests produces at least twiceas much rainfall as air passing over deforested areas.Although these authors have not yet considered themechanisms and effects of the biotic pump theory, theyhave produced strong evidence that the negative im-

pact of deforestation on climate is not only felt locally,but can also affect other regions both close by and afar.

Makarieva et al. placed the ndings of Spracklen into per-spective by applying the biotic pump concept and quan-titatively explaining which physical factors are responsiblefor the reduction in rainfall downwind of deforested areas.They noted that this decrease in rainfall may be consid-erably greater than that indicated by Spracklens group66.In the most deforested portion of the Amazon, there al-ready is a progressive delay in the onset of the wet season,which has a profound effect on the agricultural sector.

The climate models used to simulate deforestationhave not yet included this new physical theory, so theydo not project this effect, which could result in a 100%decrease in rainfall.

2.2) Real deforestation: eagle eyes in space

Deforestation is both real and immense, and its effectson the climate are well documented. Studies using mi-crometeorological towers have shown that the replace-ment of forest by pasture leads to increased surfacetemperatures and decreased evapotranspiration, whichis analogous to the model predictions63. Satellite obser-vations have shown that during the dry season, in ac-cordance with the biotic pump theory, evapotranspira-tion in forests has continued to occur or even increased,but that this is not the case in deforested areas64.

Similar data have also in-dicated that forest tran-spiration is much greaterthan that determined bythe models, which par-tially explains the under-estimation, in large-scale

models, of the reduction in rainfall caused by deforesta-tion. Although some observational studies have shownan increase in localized rainfall with deforestation, morecomprehensive studies, simulations with climate mod-els and even theoretical analyses have claried the local

Thus, in the discregarding deforesa question of doulonger lingers on rect and indirect on the decrease in

but rather moves onto the issue of the actual

of deforestation. During 2011/2012, a mere 4,5were deforested in the Brazilian Amazon. Comwith deforestation rates in peak years, such a(27,772 km2), this seems to be a modest amountdeserves recognition for having achieved this tion. The speed and efficiency at which Brazil acthis decrease in the deforestation rate suggest thstrategy adopted should be applied to eliminareverse further deforestation in Brazil and world

Despite the encouraging news, this seemingly

deforestation rate would be suffi

cient to clear aequivalent to the entire country of Costa Rica in ten years. Furthermore, a reduction in annual estation rates attenuates the momentary percof loss and masks the cumulative deforestationAmazon, which is exceedingly serious.

With regard to climate, what especially matterstotal area that has been deforested and its spattribution. Digenes Alves67 calculated total deftion at 663 mil km2in 2004 based on a compilapioneering satellite investigations. By aggregati

!"# &,$ /"%& *$6"#$%&$*


23/42


Cumulative deforestation: 762.979 km!

0$( -=-*9 F(C=+()-(F *+(* 2) UA! *2992=

elds68- almost one soccer eld deforested in the Amazon for ev

Brazilian. Placed in the context of time, the gures are staggerin

soccer elds deforested per day, 526 per hour, 8.8 elds or 36,2

per minute, or 605 mUD(+ )(,=;F P2-$=8- )-=DD2;< =E(+ -$( 9*)- To comprehend the enormity of these gures, you need to exten

imagination beyond these analogies. A ctional tractor that is ope

a 3-m-wide front blade would need to accelerate to nearly the sp

a jet plane (726 km/h) to deforest the clearcut area in the Amazo

pace recorded from space-borne imagery. Because a tractor def

much more slowly (0.24 0.36 ha/h69! =+ iXQh K>3$! 2C -$( *+(* 2)

stricted to a 3-m wide strip), over 900 tractors with a 3-m blade w

+(W82+(F! )2F(RLBR)2F( )2>89-*;(=8)9B ,8--2;< F=P; -$( C=+()- *;

a destructive front nearly 3-km wide. An even more striking com

-$*- =C * URK> P2F( jF(C=+()-*-2=; +=*Fk P$2,$ P=89F ,=E(+ -$( F

from the Earth to the Moon (380,000 km).

68 Deforested area = 762,979 km2/ 0.004136 km2= 184,472,679 soccerelds.69 (Viana, 2012) Mquinas e Mtodos de Desmatamento (Deforestation Machines and Methods).70 INPE deforestation monitoring databaseinterface: http://www.dpi.inpe.br/prodesdigital/prodesmunicipal.php. Lista(a table) and Consolida(sums for the considered area unit), in Portuguese.71 Percentage of defore sted area until 2012: state of Tocantins (TO) 75%, state of Maranho (MA) 72%, state of Rondnia (RO) 41%, state of Mato Grosso (MT) 40%, state of Par (PA) 22% and state of Acre (AC72 Prodes report 2008, pdf: http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/Relatorio_Prodes2008.pdf, in Portuguese.

latest gures from the PRODES project of the Nation-al Institute for Space Research (INPE), total cumulativedeforestation reached 762,979 km2in 2013.

From a climate-damage perspective, what we have inAmazonia is a gigantic liability of destruction of thegreen-oceanrainforest. So there is no reason whatsoev-

er to celebrate the relatively lower rates of clearcuttingin recent years, especially since, after the adoption of thenew Forest Code (2011) with its wide amnesty for thosewho deforested, a distinct tendency towards further in-creases in the annual rates has already been observed.

Going by INPEs calculations, the extent of clear-felledforest in Brazil (not taking into account other countriesthat form the Amazon basin) reached 18.85% of theoriginal forest area in 201270. However, destruction isnot uniform because there is a high concentration of

clearcutting in the so-called Arc of Fire (or Arc of Defor-estation)71. If the vast expanse of forest that has beenshaved totally bare is already extremely serious forthe climate, the situation is even worse when we alsoconsider the areas of rainforest that have been grave-ly-wounded.

Logging, gradual deforestation and re produce exten-sive areas of degraded forests that are rarely includedin official tallies of forest destruction but, from what wecan infer from the information and estimates available,these areas can have a signicant impact on climate.

Dalton Valeriano led a pioneering study on land dation72in the state of Mato Grosso from 2007 toand found only 7,856 km2of forest that had beencut but that there was a further 32,926 km2 of deforest areas. If we add up the clearcut and degradeas, very little is left of what originally gave the SMato Grosso (Dense Forestin Portuguese) its nam

During the same period, INPE mapped 64,205 degraded forest versus 39,026 km2 of clearcutin the Brazilian Amazon. Using the relative propbetween these two distinct areas, the propor
http://www.dpi.inpe.br/prodesdigital/prodesmunicipal.phphttp://www.dpi.inpe.br/prodesdigital/prodesmunicipal.php


24/42


73 Calculation using the measurement from Esprito-Santo et al. (2014) for the remnant forest in the Brazilian Amazon [3,500,000 km2] added to the area of cumulative deforestation [762,979 km2], reach4,262,979 km2of original forest in the Brazilian Amazon.

74 Impact using the total area of original forest estimated by current coverage (remnant forests + cumulative deforestation) based respectively on Esprito-Santo et al. (2014) with 7,562,979 km2and Evawith 6,943,468 km2.

75 (Laurance & Williamson, 2001) Positive Feedbacks among Forest Fragmentation, Drought, and Climate Change in the Amazon.

76 (Valeriano et al., 2008) Monitoramento da Cobertura Florestal da Amaznia por Satlites. SistemasPRODES: http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/index.php; DETER: http://www.obt.inpe.br/deter/;DEGRhttp://www.obt.inpe.br/degrad/; e QUEIMADAS: http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/;2007-2008 [Monitoring of the Forest Coverage of the Amazon by Satellite from 2007-2008 using the systems PRODing The Brazilian Amazon Rainforest by Satellite; DETER Detection of Deforestation in Real Time; DEGRAD - Mapping Forest Degradation In The Brazilian Amazon; and QUEIMADAS - Monitoring of FReal Time], all links in Portuguese.

77 University of Maryland Global Forest Cover: http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest, in English.

degraded forest can be extrapolated for the entire Bra-zilian Amazon. Based on this estimate, by 2013 the totaldegraded area may have hit the mark of 1,255,100 km 2.Added to the total measured clearcut area, the cumu-lative impact of human occupation on the biome mayhave reached 2,018,079 km2.

Amongst the 200-plus countries in the world, only 13of them cover an area greater than this. This estimatesuggests that the degraded forest in the Brazilian Am-azon may have reached as much as 29.44% of the orig-inal area73. When this is added to the clearcut area, itsuggests that as much as 47.34% of the forest may havebeen directly impacted by climate-destabilizing humanactivities. For the Pan-Amazon region, this aggregatedeffect in the Brazilian Amazon represents from 26.68%to 29.03% of the original forest area when consideringboth deforestation and estimated degradation74.

However, the affected area may be even greater froman ecological perspective because forests adjacentto degraded or clearcut areas suffer both directly andindirectly from the effects of environmental changes(both biogeophysical and biogeochemical) in neigh-boring areas75.

In the degradation process, canopy destruction, whichoften exceeds 60% of the vegetation coverage76, chang-es the structural, ecological and physiological charac-teristics of forests, compromising their environmentalqualities and capabilities.

Figure 1Cumulative deforestation from 2000 to 2010 (lighter red) and prior to that period (darker red) in South America77.
http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/index.phphttp://www.obt.inpe.br/deter/http://www.obt.inpe.br/deter/http://www.obt.inpe.br/degrad/http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-foresthttp://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-foresthttp://www.inpe.br/queimadas/http://www.obt.inpe.br/degrad/http://www.obt.inpe.br/deter/http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/index.php


25/42


that have emerged from the wrongful, uncontrolterrible use of inventions in the Anthropocene78, new era in which humanity has become a geoforce capable of changing the face of the planet.

3.1) Point of no return: the misstep into the aby

If we imagine the metaphor of a vehicle (the grest) traveling along a bumpy road (climate), wiible tires that absorb and cushion the impactpotholes (eco-climate resilience), how deep woclimate holeneed to be to burst the tire of theoceanAmazon?

The effects of thesevere drought in tury were felt in 200years later, the eff

the 2010 drought were much greater and even mtensive79. In 2010, cave paintings were seen for ttime on rocks that emerged at the bottom of theriver, paintings made during the glacial era thoof years ago when the sea level was 100 m loweits current level. The physical explanations for themega-events remain inconclusive; however, numobservations80, both from on land and from spaceno doubt about the damage and losses enduredforest81. These ndings indicate that the Amazo

3) The Achilles heel

of the Amazon:

the invincible

hero falls

78 Anthropocene, a planet transformed by humanity: http://www.anthropocene.info/en/anthropocene, in English.79 (Marengo et al., 2011) The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region.

80 For example: (Brando et al., 2014) Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-re interactions; (Saatchi et al., 2013) Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canoal., 2013) Increased dry-season length over s outhern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection; (Marengo et al., 2013) Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation; (Phillips et al., 2009) Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest; (Cox et al., 2008) Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due t o decreasing aerosol pollution;al., 2005) Climatic variability and vegetation vulnerability in Amaznia.

81 (Nepstad et al. 1999) Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging andre. For example: extensive tree mortality, which signicantly changes the vegetation structure and aborts theregeneration mechanisms in clearings.

;,$ +)&0(& 1#$$)."($0) 6"#$%& ,0%

/0)5 #$%"3#($% &" 04%"#4 &,$ $6.

6$(&% "6 *#"31,&% 0)* (0) ("/


26/42


whatsoever falls in the dry season - something that didnot use to happen but is now becoming increasing-ly common -, organic matter on the forest oor doesdry to the point at which it becomes ammable. Firespenetrate the forest, burning surface roots and killinglarge trees85. All these deforestation side-effects aremaximized and the armies of human enemies quickly

strike the vulnerable warriors heel. When will the forestfall forever? Several studies have suggested an answer:when it crosses the point of no return86.

The point of no return is the beginning of a chain re-action, like a row of standing dominoes. When the rstone falls, all the others will fall. Once brutally and irrep-arably unbalanced, the living system in the forest willultimately leap over to another state of equilibrium.

3.2) Savannization and desertication:

extensive or unthinkable damage?

Stable equilibrium is astate similar to that of aball inside a bowl, which,under normal conditions,

will always gravitate towards the deepest part of thecontainer. With increasing oscillations of the bowl, theball moves ever closer to the edges. When the move-ments become so vigorous that they drive the ball overthe edge, it jumps out and leaves the rst equilibri-um-bowl behind.

already showing signs of fatigue, or at least signicantscars from the impacts it has suffered.

Under stable green-ocean conditions, the forest has abroad repertoire of ecophysiological responses to ab-sorb the effects of such droughts82, completely regen-erating itself over the years. However, what one can

perceive in extensive areas, especially along the Arc ofDeforestation, is the multiple organ failure of fragment-ed forest remnants and even of less fragmented areas83.

Several harmful factors combine to the effect thatdroughts resulting from external pressure cause moredamage than usual, reducing the forests ability to re-generate itself. The rst and foremost among such fac-tors is deforestation itself. Without the trees, all the ser-vices that bit of forest provided for the climate clearlydisappear, and this in turn affects the remaining forest.

Forest removal disrupts the biotic pump of atmospher-ic moisture, weakening its ability to import moist air tothe region, generating rain. When the forest is removedby burning, smoke and soot cause a breakdown in themechanisms of cloud nucleation and result in pollutedand dissipative clouds that do not produce rain84.

The oor of a rainfor-est in pristine state istoo damp to burn, evenduring the dry season.However, when no rainfall

82 (Phillips et al., 2010) Drought-mortality relationships for tropical forests.83 (Laurance & Williamson, 2001) Positive Feedbacks among Forest Fragmentation, Drought, and Climate Change in the Amazon.84 (Andreae et al., 2004) Smoking rain clouds over the Amazon.85 (Nepstad et al., 2004) Amazon drought and its implications for forest ammability and tree growth: a b asin-wide analysis.86 For example: (Nobre and Borma, 2009) Tipping pointsfor the Amazon forest.

8$6"#$%&0&+") *+%#3


27/42


87 Using the same vegetation classes of SSiB. (Oyama and Nobre, 2003) A new climate-vegetation equilibrium state for Tropical South America.88 For example: (Malhi et al., 2009) Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest.

In 2003, Marcos Oyama and Carlos Nobre hypothesizedthe savannization of the Amazon in their modelingstudy using a GCM and a vegetation equilibrium mod-el87. Because climate interacts with vegetation, whenone parameter is changed, the other tends to changevia a positive (destabilizing) or negative (stabilizing)feedback until a new equilibrium is reached.

Climate and vegetation in the Amazon green-oceanarein stable and resilient equilibrium under wet conditions.With deforestation, the climate gradually changes anddestabilizes until it reaches a point of no return (theedge of the wet bowl). The system may then take the

jump to another state of equilibrium that is much drier.

According to this study, there are two possible equilib-rium states for vegetation in the Amazon. One corre-sponds to the current distribution of vegetation, wherethe rainforest covers most of the basin, while the otheris a state in which the rainforest in the eastern Amazonis replaced by savanna. With progressive drying, the in-troduction of res and other large-scale alterations inthe forest, savanna will be favored in the new climateequilibrium, to the detriment of the forest. In the sec-ond equilibrium state, even remnant areas of undis-turbed forest will disappear, turning into savannas.

This hypothesis indicates that only protecting the for-est that is still standing will not be sufficient to preventits subsequent demise by virtue of climate change un-

der the new equilibrium conditions. This perspective

sheds new light on policies intended only to preservethe integrity of designated conservation areas.

These extrapolations generally consider scenarios withrelatively modest decreases in rainfall and always as-sume that there will not be much change in wind direc-tion when the forest is gone. In this scenario, the trade

winds carrying moisture from the ocean would contin-ue to bring it inland to the continent; only certain verti-cal exchanges over the Amazon would change.

However, the biotic pump theory, which explains howwind strength is related to condensation, predicts thata signicant decrease in evaporation/condensationon land should lead to profound reduction of air con-vergence over the continent associated with a radicalreduction of the net moisture transport or even itspossible reversal. We might compare this land-sea re-lationship to a tug of war: the side where more atmo-spheric condensation occurs will win the contest anddraw moisture toward itself. As it is the winds that bringmoisture from the sea to the land due to the presence ofthe forest, without the forest, the atmospheric air couldcease to converge over land, which could completelyeradicate rainfall in the region. Zero rainfall would leadto the formation of a desert, not a savanna.

The savannization scenario projected by Oyama andNobres model (and later detailed further by other stud-ies)88would be bad enough with its annihilation of the

pure treasure of forest biodiversity. However, rain does

fall in savanna country, so agriculture has some cof continuing to be viable. But desertication refrom progressive deforestation, as predicted by otic pump theory, would simply annihilate everincluding most human activities in the Amazon.

What about beyond the Amazon? Because most

water that irrigates the bread-basket quadransouthern South America originates from the Amthe future climate of the continent may be coably dryer. In a worst-case scenario, it would respresent-day Australia: a vast desert interior fringone side by strips of wetter areas near the sea.


28/42


there is some uncty regarding the effresistance of tropicforests to direct

activities, and this makes it difficult to project a sfor the complete and utter destruction of thebased solely on model simulations.

4) The future climate

of Amazonia: it has

already arrived

Lack of rain: mortal threat to the Amazon

4; UXXX! #(-(+ .=O (- *9Q C+=> -$( S*F9(B .(;-+( D8L92)$(F * )-*+-92

*+-2,9( 2; O0&3#$]X. For the rst time, the authors combined a gener

=C *->=)D$(+2, ,2+,89*-2=; P2-$ *; 2;-(+*,-2E( E(=F(9 2; P

-$( ,*+L=; ,B,9( P*) P(99 F(-*29(FQ 7>=;< -$( +()89-)! -$( >=F(9 D

* )$*+D! D+=*;(;- F(,+(*)( =C +*2;C*99 2; -$( 7>

which would lead to its gradual death. With the forest drying up, r

(*)29B D(;(-+*-( *;F 9*+=8;-) =C ,*+L=; P=89F L( +(9(*)(F! +

in a sharp worsening of global warming. For the rst time, a climate

$*F D+(F2,-(F * -(++2L9( C*-( C=+ -$( =F(9 2) )2>29*+ -= -$( =-$(+)Q 4- ;= 9=;=)D$(+( *;F -$( +()89-2;< P*+>2;*B =,,8+ 2; ,92>*-( >=F(9)Q 4- 2) D+(,2)(9B -$( +(F8,(F +*2;C*99 9(E

*+( -$( =F(9) F= ;=- ,=++(,-

the decrease in rainfall, they will not place the forest in danger. Be

;=;( =C -$( ,8++(;- ,92>*-( >=F(9) 2;,=+D=+*-( -$( >(,$*;2)>) *;

D+(F2,-(F LB -$( L2=-2, D8>D -$(=+B =C *->=)D$(+2, >=2)-8+(! ()D(

S*F9(B .(;-+( P*) -$( =;9B =;( -= D+(F2,- -$( C8-8+( ,92>*-( =C 7>

*9-$=8


29/42


suggest a breakdown of the current climate system arerapidly approaching. Local- and regional-scale climateeffects are being observed much earlier than expect-ed, especially in the most devastated areas, but also inmore remote areas that relied on the forest for rainfall 94.

Thus, based on observed

changes, the future cli-mate of Amazonia has al-ready arrived. The urgent

and already tardy decision to take and amplify imme-diate actions cannot wait, if there actually is a chance ofreversing the threatening situation. Investments in sci-entic research focusing on the Amazon have yieldedrich, substantiated and readily available information. Itis our responsibility to put this knowledge to good use.

4.1) Climate reciprocity: cumulative

deforestation demands immediate payment

With a signicant decreasein historic annual defor-estation rates, Brazil hasemerged as an exampleof a country that has done

part of its homework regarding climate change. For anation that has spent 40 years investing heavily in en-vironmental missteps and violating its own forest pro-tection laws, a reduction in deforestation is no meanfeat. However, the drop in annual deforestation rates,

while essential, is akin to using ones hands to block a

93 (Sampaio et al., 2007) Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion.94 (Sampaio et al., 2007).

;,$ 63&3#$ (-+/0&$ "6 =/0D".

nia has already arrived. It is

"3# #$%


30/42


Tree guillotine

4- 2) ()-2>*-(F -$*- -$( 7>*?=; L2=>( 8)(F -= $=8)( aXX =+ >=+

-+(() P2-$ * F2*>(-(+ =C >=+( -$*; \X ,> *- L+(*)- $(2() -$( F2)-*;,( L(-P((; -$( 6*+-$ *;F -$( 1==;Q 0$2) F

-2=; +*-( >(*;) @=; *E(+*=+( -$*; \ L2992=; -+(() *+( ,every year; that is nearly 3 million per day, more than 120,000 pe

over 2,000 per minute or 34 per second]Y! These gures do not i

-$( D=-(;-2*99B L(+ =C -+(() ,8- F=P; 2; )=R,*99(F F(*-( ;=-2,() -$()( -+(() *+( *-

+(D+()(;-)! *>=;< -$( >*;B )(E(+(F )(+E2,()! 9()) )8+C*,( (E*

95 Average population of trees (DAP > 10cm) in Amazonia (sensu latissimoEva et al, 2005, A proposal for dening the geographical Boundaries of Amaznia) = 555 (114) /ha, that is, 55.500 (11.400) tr(Feldpausch et al., 2011, Height-diameter allometry of tropical forest trees); total area covered by closed canopy in Amazonia by 2004 = 6.280.468 km2(Eva et al, 2005 including wet, dry and ooded fhistoric area covered with forest (forest area in 2004 plus clear cut deforestation by 2004, Alves 2007) = 6.943.468 km 2(may be higher if you include deforestation accumulated outside of Brazil); Totaminimum of trees in the original Amazonian biome: 385.362.474.000 (79.155.535.200).

96 Clearcutting shaved 762.979 km2

of the original cover (in Brazil only); estimated trees removed with clearcutting = 42.345.334.500 (8.697.960.600).97 Temporal rhythm of cutting: 42.345.334.500 (8.697.960.600) trees cut in 40 years; 1.058.633.363 (217.449.015) trees per year; 2.900.365 (595.750) trees per day; 120.848 (24.823) trees per hour; 2trees per minute; 33,5 (6,9) trees per second.

98 (von Randow et al., 2013) Inter-annual variability of carbon and wateruxes in Amazonian forest, Cerrado and pasture sites, as simulated by ter restrial biosphere models. (Marengo, 2004) Characterisspatiotemporal variability of the Amazon River Basin Water Budget.

99 (Hodnett et al., 1996) Comparisons of long-term soil water storage behavior under pasture and forest in three areas of Amazonia.

hole at the bottom of an inatable boat (climate) oncethe water that has leaked in over the last 40 years (de-forestation) is already threatening to sink it. The limit-less deforestation spree is nding that the climate isa judge who very well knows how to count trees andwho neither forgets nor forgives.

Future deforestation, or how much of the remainingforest we can cut down, is the typical focus of discus-sions on the future climate of Amazonia. Unjustiablyabsent from such discussions, the nightmarish propor-tions of cumulative deforestation of the past need tocome back into the limelight because the main aspectsof climate reciprocity are directly related to these pastactivities. Without addressing past devastation, thenightmares will return to haunt us.

Producing a daily average of approximately 4 mm oftranspired water98, which is equivalent to 4 liters/m2,the rainforest is a generous donor to favorable climate.Once the forest is replaced with pastures, transpirationplummets to 1 mm (if it rains at all) 99, or even less whenaridication occurs.

When we add re, smoke and soot - with their annihi-lating effects on the forest, clouds and rain -, to the boil-ing cauldron of inequities, the curse of an inhospitable

climate will be Natures fair response to so mustruction. The problem is that the punishment everyone indiscriminately, not only those whoested and encouraged deforestation but also thmajority of people who were and still are agains

4.2) Order of urgency: better late than never

So that we can contemplate the true dimenswhat needs to be done regarding the future climAmazonia (and consequently of South America)imagine a scene in the future in which Brazil miattacked by a powerful enemy nation possessing


31/42


War effort

N$(; >*M=+ -$+(*-) -= * ;*-2=; *+2)(! -$( *+>(F C=+,() *+( 2>>(F

D8- =; )-*;FRLBQ 7C-(+ -$( l*D*;()( *--*,K =; #(*+9 S*+L=+! -$( Z

/-*-() F(,2F(F 2- P*) ;(,())*+B -= M=2; N=+9F N*+ 44Q 4; * C(P >=;

>=8;-(F * jP*+ (CC=+-kQ .*+ >*;8C*,-8+(+) )-*+-(F -= D+=F8,( -*;K

P*+D9*;()! P$29( =-$(+ ;=;R,=>L*- C*,-=+2() L(

-2=;! P(*D=;) *;F =-$(+ >*-(+2(9 *;F (W82D>(;- -$*- P*) +(W82+(

P*+ (CC=+- (E(; +(*,$(F -$( 7>*?=;! P2-$ 2-) +8LL(+ )=9F2(+)Q N2-$

* ,=;,(;-+*-(F *;F (O-+*=+F2;*+B (CC=+-! -$( *992() P=89F ;=- $*E(

100 N. of T. Deitado eternamente em bero esplendido[Laying down ethernally in splendid cradle] is a verse of the Brazilian national anthem.101 In projects like Lucas do Rio Verde Legal : http://www.tnc.org.br/tnc-no-mundo/americas/brasil/projetos/lucas-do-rio-verde.xml;Paragominas: De viles a mocinhos dodesmatamento [from villain to good boy of deforestation]: http://www.tnc.org.br/nossas-historias/destaques/paragominas-deixa-lista-do-desmatamento.xml; Y Ikatu Xingu:http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/; etc. All links in Portuguese.

technology that uses disruptive waves emitted by sat-ellites to dissipate clouds and thereby reduce rainfall.Lets say the enemy nation has commercial intereststhat are threatened by the success of Brazils agricultur-al sector. A rain-killing weapon could be used to stuntcrops that compete with theirs, destroying harvests inBrazil and causing international prices to skyrocket. If

the Brazilian secret service informed Brazilian farmersabout the misdeeds of that said country against them,what would their reaction be? What would societys re-action be? And the governments? With all the humili-ation apportioned by such an outrage, we hardly needto be a clairvoyant to imagine that the reaction wouldbe immediate and powerful.

Leaving the realms of c-tion behind and returningto reality, we see that thevery same outrage is al-ready being perpetrated

against Brazil now, at this very moment, without theinvolvement of any foreign nation. In an undeclaredwar that has been going on over the last 40 years, hun-dreds of thousands of people have dedicated them-selves to exterminating the forests.

The removal of the rainforests, threatening both rain-fall and climate, will not only damage competitive ag-riculture, but a lack (or excess) of water will also affectenergy production, industry, urban water supplies and

life in the cities in general. However, unlike Europe and

the United States during World War II, we have beenand continue to be virtually inert in the face of theseattacks on the forest, allowing them to continue yearafter year and destroy our splendid cradle100. Who arethese people who pose such a threat to Brazils well-be-ing? Why has society not risen up? Why has the Brazil-ian Army not been mobilized in the nations defense?

To address the gravity of the situation we are in, weneed to mount a campaign similar to a war effort, al-though not one directed toward conict. The rst ur-gent line of attack needs to be a war against igno-rance, an unprecedented effort to enlighten society ingeneral, but including especially those who still clingto the mistaken belief that the devastation of the for-ests is harmless. The perpetrators are those who wieldchainsaws or incendiary devices, or those who teardown the forest with anchor chains hauled by tractors,as much as the groups who draw up public policiesand nance, control and give legislative, legal and pro-paganda cover to the devastation commandos. How-ever, only a small par t of society was and still is directlyinvolved in the destruction of the forests. It is this mi-nority that pushes the nation toward the climate abyss.

This deforesting minority is not uniform, but their cul-ture favors interests that are entrenched in a short-term view, regardless of the consequences. Drivenby immediate, narrow interests, they seem to ignorethe fact that the removal of forests can put climate at

risk. To continue with this practice, given the available

O"& ")-5 *"$% &,$ #$/"90- "6

6"#$%&% *$6$0& 01#+(3-&3#$7 43&

&,$ -0(: M"# $P($%%N "6 20&$#

0-%" 066$(&% $)$#15


32/42


Until we reach the point of no return, there are a fewwindows of opportunity for restorative action. Now isthe time to engage vigorously in a healing war-effortto reverse climate disaster resulting from the destruc-tion of the Amazon green-ocean. Several tasks must beperformed to this aim.

5.1) Popularize forest science: knowledge is power

It is vital that the scientif-ic facts regarding the role of the forest in creating afriendly climate and the effect of deforestation in lead-ing to an inhospitable climate should reach all levels ofsociety and become common knowledge. Every effortshould be made to simplify the message without dis-torting its very essence. One should, above all, reachout and appeal to peoples sensitivity.

5.2) Zero deforestation: start yesterday

Complacency and pro-crastination concerning allthis destruction must be

vigorously eradicated. An adequate level of stringencycan be compared with the treatment given to tobacco.Once the harm it does to human beings and economiclosses it infringes on society were ascertained, a seriesof measures were adopted to discourage smoking.

With regard to deforestation in Brazil, several steps

5) Forests of

opportunities: five

steps towards

climate recovery

102 Land-clearance can be stimulated by changes in national economic policies. Deforestation peaks in 1995 (29,059 km2) and 2004 (27,130 km2) for example, occurred at the height of an economic boom..103

Documents

The Future Climate of Amazonia Report