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Resources, Conservation and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Resources, Conservation and Recycling
journa l homepage: www.e lsev ier .com/ locate / resconrec
he future distribution and production of global phosphate rock reserves
ames Cooper, Rachel Lombardi, David Boardman, Cynthia Carliell-Marquet ∗
chool of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
r t i c l e i n f o
rticle history:eceived 20 April 2011eceived in revised form 9 September 2011ccepted 10 September 2011
eywords:hosphorushosphate rockeservesroductioneopoliticsorocco
a b s t r a c t
Phosphorus (P) is essential for crop growth and food production, and most of the phosphorus appliedto agricultural land comes from phosphate rock (PR), a non-renewable resource. The distribution of PRreserves and the share of current production are both concentrated in a handful of countries, notablyMorocco and China. Individual countries operate their phosphate mining industries at different reserve-to-production (R/P) ratios, which determines the lifetime of PR reserves in that country and, in turn,the global distribution of both reserves and production in the future. This research uses U.S. GeologicalSurvey data (released in January 2011) to derive R/P ratios for individual countries and combines thiswith a scenario for increasing global demand to investigate how the global distribution of PR reserves andproduction will change between now and the year 2100. The results show that 70% of global productionis currently produced from reserves which will be depleted within 100 years and combining this withincreasing demand will result in a significant global production deficit, which by 2070 will be largerthan current production. Morocco, with nearly 77% of global reserves, will need to increase productionby around 700% by 2075 in order to meet most of this deficit. If this is possible, Morocco will obtain a
much greater share of worldwide production, from around 15% in 2010 to around 80% by 2100, whichimplies more control over market prices. Also, since Morocco operates the highest R/P ratio throughoutthe analysis period, its share of the global reserves continues to increase, from 77% in 2011 to 89% by 2100.Overall, the research concludes that, unless additional sources of phosphorus can be accessed or societycan significantly increase phosphorus recycling, future global phosphorus security will be increasinglyreliant on a single country.© 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
. Introduction
Phosphorus is essential for crop growth and therefore food pro-uction. To sustain high crop yields, modern agriculture requiressteady supply of chemical fertiliser, which contains phosphoruserived from phosphate rocks. It is estimated that approximately0% of the phosphorus applied to cropland comes from this non-enewable resource (Cordell, 2010; Liu et al., 2008; Smil, 2000;mit et al., 2009), with the remainder from recycled phosphorus inrganic residues such as manure, crop residues and human excreta.t is estimated that around 90% of the phosphorus derived fromhosphate rock is used in agriculture as fertiliser or feed (Brunner,
010).There is a growing understanding of the challenges involved inustaining the supply of affordable phosphorus needed to keep pace
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 7810868103.E-mail address: [email protected] (C. Carliell-Marquet).
921-3449/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.oi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2011.09.009
with food demand for an increasing global population. These chal-lenges exist throughout the phosphorus supply chain, from miningof phosphorus rock through to fertiliser use and recycling of phos-phorus rich wastes. Being more efficient in the use and reuse ofphosphorus makes a country less reliant on imported phosphorusand, hence, increases their security of supply. Several studies sug-gest that phosphate rock reserves could be depleted within 50–100years (Steen, 1998; De Haes et al., 2009; Smit et al., 2009; Vaccari,2009; Cordell, 2010), whilst others suggest that phosphate rockreserves will extend well into the future (Van Kauwenbergh, 2010;Van Vuuren et al., 2010). Regardless of these timelines, it is evidentthat most of the phosphate rock reserves are held by only a hand-ful of countries, primarily Morocco, which according to the latestUSGS estimates (January 2011) controls around 77% of the world’sreserves.
Most research papers to date on phosphorus scarcity have con-sidered reserves and production on a global basis, however globalreserves are made up of individual deposits within individualcountries, hence the interplay between reserves and production
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J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conse
R/P ratio) within individual countries produces a dynamic globalituation that could intensify phosphorus supply issues in theuture through market dominance by fewer countries.
This paper considers how the relationship between reservesnd production in individual countries (the reserve-to-productionatio) will influence the phosphorus supply landscape through the1st century.
. Aims and objectives
.1. Aim
To investigate how the distribution of phosphate rock reservesnd share of supply may change throughout the 21st century as aesult of the different reserve-to-production (R/P) ratios that areurrently being operated within individual countries.
.2. Objectives
. To identify the latest estimates of the size, distribution and pro-duction of phosphate rock reserves, as well as determining theR/P ratios for individual countries and for the world as a whole.
. Develop a scenario using the R/P ratios to determine how futureproduction might be affected by the depletion of reserves thathave R/P ratio less than the global average and will be depletedbefore the end of the century.
. Determine how much production must be increased in somecountries to meet the production deficit, allowing also for anincreased global demand for phosphate rock.
. Develop a scenario that accommodates the production deficitand determine how this will affect the distribution of reservesand share of production over the course of the analysis period.
. Background literature
.1. Phosphate rock reserves
Phosphorus is the eleventh most abundant element in thearth’s crust (Johnston and Steen, 2000), which contains around–10 × 108 million tonnes (Mt) of P (Brunner, 2010). Around 95% ofhis phosphorus is found as a calcium–phosphate mineral, knowns apatite (Smil, 2000). Most sedimentary rocks contain very smalloncentrations of phosphorus, typically around 0.1% P, but underertain conditions, which very rarely occur in the same place athe same time, and over millions of years, this concentration canncrease to produce phosphate rocks, also known as phosphorites,
hich have 100× the concentration of typical sedimentary rocks,etween 10 and 20% P (Filippelli, 2011). Some of these phosphateocks are located in places that make them difficult to access andxtract economically with existing technology, such as the largeesources found on the continental shelves and seamounts in thetlantic and Pacific Oceans (Jasinski, 2008), but others depositsave sufficient phosphate content and accessibility that enable eco-omic extraction to occur. These deposits are commonly known ashosphate rock reserves, defined by the United States Geologicalurvey (USGS) as the part of the identified resource which could beconomically extracted or produced at the time of determinationUSGS, 2011).
The USGS produces a mineral commodity summaries report inanuary each year, which includes estimates of global phosphateock reserves and annual production, as well as estimates for the
op 15 countries and a grouped category for all other countries. TheSGS also used to provide estimates for the reserve base, which isefined as the in-place, demonstrated portion of the total resourcehat is already economically available (economic reserves) or hasand Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86 79
a reasonable potential of becoming economically available in thefuture (USGS, 2011). However, since the closure of the US Bureauof Mines (USBM) in 1996, the data upon which the latest reservebase estimates was based has not been updated and was consid-ered too old to remain defensible, therefore reserve base estimateswere discontinued in 2009 (USGS, 2010). Prior to 2011, the latestUSGS estimates for phosphate rock reserves and reserve base were16,000 Mt and 47,000 Mt, respectively (Jasinski, 2010, 2009).
Reserve estimates are dynamic and can change for a numberof reasons. Reserve estimates can increase with the discovery ofnew deposits, upgraded estimates of known deposits, or througha reclassification of base reserves to economical reserves asimproved extraction technology or increased market price makepreviously uneconomic reserves become economically available.Conversely, reserves can also decrease through extraction, down-grading estimates for known deposits, or through reclassificationto uneconomic reserves if the market price falls or extraction costsincrease. Between 1996 and 2010, phosphate rock reserve esti-mates ranged between 11,000 and 18,000 million tonnes, with the2010 estimate at 16,000 Mt. However, in January 2011 the USGSmassively increased its reserves estimate to 65,000 Mt, more thana 4-fold increase and considerably greater than any estimate pro-duced over the last 15 years (Jasinski, 2011).
This change was largely influenced by a report produced by theInternational Fertiliser Development Centre (IFDC) in 2010 whichreviewed the literature surrounding phosphate rock reserves andresources and suggested that world reserves of phosphate rockwere approximately 60,000 Mt and resources were 290,000 Mt(Van Kauwenbergh, 2010). In particular, considerable revisionswere made to Morocco’s estimated reserves, which were increasedfrom the USGS (2010) estimate of 5700 Mt to around 51,000 Mt,almost a 9-fold increase. The increase to Morocco’s estimatedreserves accounted for almost all of the increase to the globalreserves estimate; in fact compared to the previous USGS estimate,the combined total of reserves held by all other countries actuallydecreased by around 10% in the IFDC report.
The IFDC figures are not based on new findings but on datadrawn from literature on global PR deposits, which has in itselfbecome very limited since 1990 (Van Kauwenbergh, 2010). In orderto estimate the size of Morocco’s phosphate rock reserves, the IFDCused reports from Gharbi (1998) and OCP (1989), which estimatedthe volume of phosphate rock, to calculate the amount of rockconcentrate, or reserves. Hence, the revisions are based on liter-ature that was previously overlooked or unavailable to the USGS,and was therefore not included in their previous PR reserve esti-mates for Morocco. It should be noted that the IFDC report (VanKauwenbergh, 2010) cautions that it is not known if all of Morocco’sphosphate rock reserves are producible at today’s costs, whichraises questions as to whether all the quoted reserves should beconsidered as true economic reserves or whether some should beconsidered instead as base reserves.
Subsequently, the USGS revised their PR reserve figures inJanuary 2011 based on the IFDC findings, increasing the globalreserve estimate to 65,000 Mt, with Moroccan reserves account-ing for 50,000 Mt (Jasinski, 2011). The analyses conducted withinthis paper use the USGS (2011) PR reserve estimates. We recom-mend that readers of this paper bear in mind the dynamic natureof PR reserve estimates when interpreting the findings.
3.2. Distribution of phosphate rock reserves
Due to the specific conditions required for phosphate rock
formation which rarely take place in unison, the occurrence ofphosphate rock formation is limited both temporally and geograph-ically, resulting in a few massive phosphorite formations, known as“Phosphorite Giants”, which make up the bulk of phosphate rock
80 J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conservation and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86
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eserves (Filippelli, 2011). The geographical distribution of thesehosphate rock reserves has given rise to geopolitical concernsurrounding phosphorus security.
The distribution of reserves, which was already thought to beignificantly concentrated with just five countries in control of 86%f global reserves (Jasinski, 2010), was further intensified with theelease the IFDC report and subsequent revision to USGS estimates.he latest estimates, following the 9-fold increase to Moroccaneserves, now suggest that Morocco alone controls 77% of globaleserves with 50 billion tonnes (Jasinski, 2011).
Fig. 1 demonstrates the extent of the concentrated distributionf phosphate rock reserves, with the final category being the com-ination of all other countries in the world. Of particular note ishe absence of India and West European countries. Finland is thenly West European country with commercial deposits (Johnstonnd Steen, 2000) and India’s low-grade phosphate rock deposits arensuitable for fertiliser production (Rosemarin, 2004).
The Moroccan mining industry is controlled by the Office Chéri-en des Phosphates (OCP), which is a state-owned group, withorocco’s King Mohammed VI the unofficial overseer (Rosemarin,
004; Westenhaus, 2010). This generates an interesting situationhere one person effectively controls around three quarters of the
lobal phosphate reserves. Moreover, some of these reserves areituated in Western Sahara, an independent territory that has beenccupied by Morocco since 1975 (Rosemarin et al., 2009). The Inter-ational Fertiliser Development Centre (IFDC) estimate that around100 Mt of Morocco’s 50,000 Mt, are located within the Bu Craaegion of Western Sahara (Van Kauwenbergh, 2010). This amountso around 2% of Morocco’s total reserves. Production from Westernaharan deposits is estimated to be between 5 and 10% of OCP’shosphate rock extraction (OCP, 2009). However, exploiting min-ral resources in Non-Self-Governing Territories, such as Westernahara, against the wishes and best interests of the people is illegalnder international law (Corell, 2002), and consequently some Aus-ralian and Scandinavian firms have stopped importing Moroccanhosphate rock (Rosemarin et al., 2009; Cordell, 2010).
The geographical concentration of phosphate rock reserves cane compared to that of oil reserves, as shown in Fig. 2. Morocco
as been referred to as the Saudi Arabia of Phosphorus due to thearge amount of reserves that it controls. However, based on the011 USGS figures, Morocco would be better compared to OPEChan Saudi Arabia, as the proportion of phosphate rock reserves it
hosphate rock reserves.
controls is equivalent to the proportion of oil reserves held by all12 member states of OPEC combined, around 77% (BP, 2010).
3.3. Phosphate rock production
Phosphate rock production began just before the middle of 19thcentury, rapidly increasing between 1950 and 1990, and playingan unappreciated but key role in the ‘Green Revolution’ in whichagricultural yields were significantly increased (Elser and White,2010). From USGS historical production data it is possible to deter-mine that around 7000 Mt of phosphate rock have been producedsince 1900, with production increasing on average by around 3.7%per year. Production peaked in 1989 and declined for several years,partly due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and decreased fer-tiliser demand in Western Europe and North America (Cordell et al.,2009a). However, rising demand over the last 10 years has seenannual production increase again by around 3% per year, reachingaround 176 Mt in 2010, which is the largest amount ever producedin a year (Jasinski, 2010).
Similar to the situation with PR reserves, global PR productionis dominated by just a handful of countries, as shown in Fig. 3.
0%
Top 1 Top 2 Top 3 Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 OPEC 12 vs. Morocco
Countries with Largest Reserves
1) BP (2010)
2) Jasinski (2011)
Fig. 2. A comparison of the distribution of phosphate rock and oil reserves.
J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conservation
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Fig. 3. Share of world phosphate rock production in 2010.
Jasinski, 2007, 2011). However, in an effort to secure domestic sup-lies during the 2008 price rises, China imposed a 135% export tariffn its phosphate rock, which effectively stopped exports (Elser andhite, 2010).The concentrated nature of world phosphorus production raises
he possibility that a small number of countries could have signif-cant control over the market price of phosphate rock. This wasealised with oil reserves during the 1973 oil crisis when the Arabember states of OPEC imposed an oil embargo against the US,
ausing oil prices to quadruple and contributing towards a globalconomic recession. OPEC currently accounts for around 41% oflobal oil production (BP, 2010), demonstrating that the phosphateock production is more concentrated than crude oil production, ashown in Fig. 4.
.4. Future demand
Since around 90% of the phosphorus derived from phosphateock is used in agriculture (Brunner, 2010), the future demandor phosphate rock is linked to crop and food production. Theemand for food is expected to increase in the future with theain drivers being increasing populations and changing diets. Thenited Nations (UN) medium population variant estimates thatlobal population will grow from 6.91 billion in 2010 to 9.15 bil-ion by 2050 (UN, 2009). This is equivalent to a 0.7% annual increase.he total demand for food could increase by 40% by 2030 and 70%y 2050, with water and energy use doubling by 2050 (Foresight,
011). Borlaug and Dowswell (2003) estimated that harvests wouldave to expand by 50% by 2030 and food production would have toouble during the century.0%
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Crude oilproduc�on
Phosphate RockProduc�on
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ig. 4. Comparing the distribution of phosphate rock and crude oil production.
and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86 81
The increase in food production and the development of non-food crops, such as biofuels, is expected to increase the futuredemand for fertilisers. The Food and Agricultural Organisation ofthe United Nations (FAO) expects fertiliser demand to increase byaround 2.6% per year between 2010 and 2014 (FAO, 2010). Longerterm estimates suggest that fertiliser demand could increase byaround 1–1.5% per year to 2030 (FAO, 2000, 2002), slowing to 0.9%per year between 2030 and 2050 (FAO, 2002). The increase in fer-tiliser will involve increases in the demand for phosphorus andphosphate rock. The FAO estimate the demand for phosphorus togrow annually by 2.9% to 2014 (FAO, 2010) and longer-term scenar-ios developed by Cordell et al. (2009b) suggests that the probabledemand for phosphorus will grow by 2% per year to 2050 (Cordellet al., 2009b). Also, IFA statistics suggest that the quality of phos-phate rock (expressed as the percentage of P2O5) has declined from31.4% in 1999 to 30.6% in 2009 (IFA, 2011). This trend suggests thatmore phosphate rock will need to be mined to achieve the sameamount of phosphorus in the future. It is also suggested that chem-ical fertilisers will contribute a greater share of total phosphorusinputs to agriculture as fertilisers in the future as they are preferredto organic alternatives (Fresco, 2003). This will act to increase theglobal demand for phosphate rock.
Several studies have attempted to estimate the future demandfor phosphorus and phosphate rock in order to determine a moreaccurate assessment of the lifetime of reserves rather than justrelying on a constant production scenario. Many of these studiespresent estimates in million tonnes (Mt) of P2O5 or P, rather thanquantities of phosphate rock. In converting these values into phos-phate rock to allow an easier comparison, it is assumed that thephosphate rock quality is 30% P2O5 (which contains 44% P). Thisassumption is based on IFA statistics which suggest that the gradeof phosphate rock produced in 2009 was 30.6% P2O5, which hasdecreased from 31.4% in 1999 (IFA, 2011).
Most of the increasing demand is expected to occur betweennow and 2050. An analysis produced by De Haes et al. (2009)assumes demand remains parallel to population growth at 0.7% peryear, resulting in a phosphate rock demand around 195 Mt by 2050(De Haes et al., 2009). The trend scenario suggests that an allowancefor changing diets and biofuels is provided, although no quantifi-cation of future demand is given. Steen (1998) suggests a ‘realistic’scenario which involves replacement rate applications in Westernagriculture, soil improvement in developing countries, and increas-ing efficiency and recycling, would generate 233 Mt per year by2050. This scenario does not allow for the development of biofu-els so may underestimate the future demand. Scenario B from Smitet al. (2009), which allows for biofuels, as well as increasing effi-ciency and recycling, suggests that by 2050 the demand could be249 Mt. Van Vuuren et al. (2010) develop 4 future consumption sce-narios, which range from 163 to 260 Mt by 2020, and 217 to 383 Mtby 2100. The more modest Techno garden (TG) scenario stabilisesaround 2050 and ends with a consumption rate of 283 Mt by 2100(Van Vuuren et al., 2010). Mew (2011) believes that demand willplateau around 2050 at a rate between 250 and 280 Mt per year.
The analysis within this paper assumes that phosphate rock pro-duction will reach just over 260 Mt per year by 2050, achieved withan average growth rate of production of 1% per year between 2010and 2050. This figure is consistent with the estimates described pre-viously but is conservative compared to the 3% average growth rateof production measured over the last 10 years and also comparedto short-term estimates by the FAO.
Beyond 2050, the world’s population is expected to peak andstabilise, or even slightly decline towards the end of the century
(UN, 2004; IIASA, 2007). This is likely to influence growth in food,fertiliser and phosphate rock production. Most analysts anticipatesome stabilisation of fertiliser and phosphorus consumptionduring the second half of the century (Van Vuuren et al., 2010).
82 J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conservation
Table 1Phosphate rock reserve-to-production (R/P) ratios for individual countries.
Country Reserves (R) in2011 (Mt of rock)
Production (P) in2010 (Mt ofrock/year)
R/P (years)
Morocco 50,000 26 1923China 3700 65 57Algeria 2200 2 1100Syria 1800 2.8 643Jordan 1500 6 250South Africa 1500 2.3 652United States 1400 26.1 54Russia 1300 10 130Brazil 340 5.5 62Israel 180 3 60Senegal 180 0.65 277Egypt 100 5 20Tunisia 100 7.6 13Australia 82 2.8 29Togo 60 0.8 75Canada 5 0.7 7Other countries 620 9.5 65
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World total 65,067 176 370
ata source: Jasinski, 2011.
ordell et al. (2009b) estimate that the demand for phosphorus willrow by 0.5% during the second-half of the century, whereas Mew2011) expects phosphorus demand to plateau around mid-centurynd Smit et al. (2009) assume 0% growth after 2050. This analysislso assumes that between 2050 and 2100, phosphate rock pro-uction will continue at around 260 Mt per year, with 0% growth.
.5. Reserve-to-production ratio
A reserve-to-production (R/P) ratio gives an indication of theifetime of the reserves at current production rates. Using the011 USGS figures, the current R/P ratio for global phosphate rockeserves is around 370 years (Jasinski, 2011). However, reserves androduction rates vary amongst producing countries and the rela-ionship between reserves and production differs for each country,herefore individual countries operate different R/P ratios as shownn Table 1. This is clearly demonstrated in Figs. 1 and 3, where
orocco has by far the largest estimated reserves but China hashe largest production.
Although this simple measure is widely used to estimate futureesource scarcity, it does have some criticisms. This is because botherms in the equation (R and P) are not constant. As discussed inection 3.4, the demand for phosphate rock is expected to increasen the future, therefore production is also expected to increase.he reserves estimate is also not a constant. This is because theeserves estimates include only known reserves for which extrac-ion is profitable under current economic conditions and withurrent technology. The estimate does not allow for additional dis-overies, improvements to extraction technology or price increaseshat make previously uneconomic or marginally economic depositsecome economic. Tilton (2003) suggests that once a company hasver 20–30 years left at current production then there is little incen-ive to invest money in discovering additional reserves. However,f extraction costs increase through increasing energy prices ornvironmental regulatory policies for example, then it is also pos-ible that the reserve estimates could decrease as some reservesecome uneconomical. Rising oil prices and increasing concernsbout global warming and the disposal of hazardous waste couldncrease the costs of phosphate rock production.
Despite these criticisms of R/P ratios, it is still a useful tool to seehere production is heading, and in particular, highlighting the dif-
erences between individual countries and how this could result inn ever shrinking geographical distribution of global reserves and a
and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86
phosphate market dominated by fewer countries. These differencesin R/P ratios form the basis of the analysis used within this reportto assess how the current production and distribution of reservescould change in the future.
4. Methodology
The analysis uses the USGS January 2011 estimates for reservesand production as the starting point. This includes the globalreserve figure of 65,000 Mt of rock for 2011, the global productionfigure of 176 Mt of rock for 2010, and also the individual coun-try contributions that make up the world totals for reserves andproduction, as detailed in Table 1. In order to simplify the analy-ses, several key assumptions were necessary, which are detailedwithin the methodology below. The aim of these analyses was toestablish future trends in geographical distribution and supply ofphosphate rock, rather than determine estimates of quantities, andthe presence of these assumptions does not negate this aim.
The analysis first considers the affect that different R/P ratioswithin different countries will have on future production. Globalproduction will be reduced as individual reserves are depleted andthis lost production will need to be replaced by increasing produc-tion from other countries. The first analysis assesses the scale ofthis problem by discovering how much production will decreasebetween now and 2100.
Key assumptions:
(1) Current production estimates are accurate and will remain con-stant within individual countries until the entire reserve isdepleted.
(2) The phosphate rock reserve estimates are accurate and will notchange over the course of the analysis. This analysis aims touse the most recent data and so draws from the USGS (2011)estimates, however, as already discussed, there is uncertaintysurrounding the reserves estimate for Morocco, with the IFDCcautioning that the economic viability of some of the quotedreserves within its report have yet to be established.
The demand for phosphate rock is likely to increase in the futureand the second stage allows for an increasing demand for phos-phate rock to determine the associated production deficit.
Key assumptions:
(3) The demand for phosphate rock will increase by 1% per yearbetween 2010 and 2050, resulting in an annual production ofapproximately 260 Mt in 2050, or close to a 50% increase on the2010 production rate. Initially this rate of growth is a fairly con-servative estimate, especially compared to growth over the last10 years (see Section 3.3) and expected growth in food produc-tion by 2050 (see Section 3.4), but results in a similar phosphaterock production estimated by other analysts as identified anddiscussed in Section 3.4.
(4) The demand for phosphate rock will stabilise between 2050 and2100 at around 260 Mt per year, resulting in 0% growth. Thissituation is similar to that expected with population growthduring the second half of the century and also expected byseveral analysts as discussed in Section 3.4.
The analysis assumes that global production will be able tofollow demand throughout the analysis period. However, sincephosphate rock is a non-renewable resource, there is also the
possibility of a supply-sided peak in production, where the pro-duction capacity reaches its maximum limit and plateaus ordeclines thereafter as the best quality and most accessible depositsbecome depleted. The theory of supply-side constraints on global
rvation and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86 83
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J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conse
roduction was first proposed by M. King Hubbert for fossil fuels,nd in particular to suggest a peak in global oil production (Hubbert,949). This analysis was applied to phosphate rock reserves usingSGS 2008 estimates of 18,000 Mt to suggest that peak phosphorusould be reached by 2034 (Cordell et al., 2009a). An updated ver-ion using the IFDC reserves estimate of 60,000 Mt suggests thateak phosphorus will still be reached before the end of the centuryCordell et al., 2011). Vaccari and Strigul (2011) suggest that a num-er of indicators, such as resource lifetime estimates and trends inosts and grades, all point towards increasing scarcity and the pos-ibility of peak in production. However, Mew (2011) demonstrateshat to achieve peak phosphorus within this century, productionates would have to climb to around 700 Mt per year, which is muchreater than the expected 200–300 Mt per year range describedn Section 3.4. The analysis presented within this paper assumeshat phosphate rock production will experience a demand inducedlateau by 2050 at around 260Mt per year, and such supply-sideonstraints will not be reached within the 21st century.
The next step in the analysis determines how this future pro-uction could be met by increasing production within individualountries.
Key assumptions:
5) Production within individual countries will increase in propor-tion to the size of the reserves held within that country. Forexample, if global production needed to be increased by 10Mt,then a country with 20% of the global reserves at that timewould increase production by 2Mt. Therefore, it is assumed thatthose countries with the largest reserves will be able to increaseproduction the most.
6) Production can continue to increase until the entire reserve isdepleted, at which point production stops. This assumption isunlikely in practice as extraction of a non-renewable resourceis expected to follow a production curve, therefore reducingproduction as the deposit nears depletion.
The final part of this paper is to assess the outcome of the anal-sis and determine how this has affected the future distribution ofeserves and share of global production.
. Results and discussion
The global R/P ratio estimates that there are around 370 yearsf phosphate rock supply left at constant extraction rates. Table 1hows that global phosphate rock reserves are made up of individ-al deposits found within individual countries and these countriesperate different R/P ratios. The global R/P ratio is an averaged valuef the individual country contributions, and it is apparent that thisalue is highly skewed by Morocco, with an R/P ratio of nearly 2000ears. Without Morocco, the global R/P ratio reduces to around 100ears.
At current production rates, many of the reserves will becomeepleted before the end of the century. In fact, just 7 countries in theorld will have reserves remaining by 2100. The depletion of these
eserves removes their production from the global total; therefore,nless production is increased in other countries, global productionill be reduced in the future, as shown in Fig. 5.
The aim of the first analysis was to discover how much produc-ion will have to be increased in other countries to compensate forhe production deficit associated with depletion of deposits heldy countries with higher R/P ratios. As can be seen from Table 1,
ust 7 countries have reserves that will last longer than 100 yearst current extraction rates. These 7 countries represent nearly 90%f the current global reserves, but only 28% of global production,o depletion of the other countries’ reserves results in the large
Fig. 5. Future global phosphate rock production allowing for depleting reservesbased on constant individual country extraction rates.
drop in production shown in Fig. 5. The most interesting point tonote is that the world’s top two producers of phosphate rock, Chinaand the US, combined with over 50% of world production, will havedepleted their reserves in around 50–60 years at current extractionrates.
Morocco has considerably greater reserves than any other coun-try, or indeed all other countries added together, and consequentlyhas the largest R/P ratio at nearly 2000 years. To match the globalR/P ratio of around 370 years, Morocco’s production would haveto instantly increase from 26 Mt to 135 Mt per year, which is morethan a 5-fold increase.
Overall, if individual countries maintain current production lev-els, then global production could drop to around 50 Mt by 2080,primarily with the exhaustion of reserves in the USA and China.Simply maintaining global production at the current rate over thefollowing century will involve substantial increases in productionwithin some countries to compensate for what is lost in others.However, as discussed previously, the demand for phosphorus islikely to increase, putting additional pressure on global phosphaterock production to increase. As detailed in Assumptions 3 and 4,and Section 3.4, this analysis assumes that demand for phosphaterock will increase by 1% per year between 2010 and 2050, and 0%between 2050 and 2100, as shown in Fig. 6. This results in a futuredemand of around 260 Mt per year by 2050, which is approximately50% more than the current production rate.
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Fig. 6. Future phosphate rock production deficit as a result of rising demand andreserve depletion based on constant individual country extraction rates.
84 J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conservation
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Phos
phat
e Ro
ck P
rodu
c�on
(Mt
of r
ock)
Year
World Total
Morocco
China
US
All Others Countries
Fp
wbdp
btpimpr
plMiitM
ig. 7. Changing phosphate rock production within individual countries to meet therojected global demand.
ill have to be increased in countries that have remaining reserves,ut the scale of the increase is immense. By 2080 the productioneficit could be over 200 Mt per year, which is greater than currentroduction of 176 Mt per year.
In order to meet the future production deficit, production muste increased within the remaining phosphorus-producing coun-ries. As described in Assumption 5, this analysis assumes thatroduction will be increased in proportion to the size of the remain-
ng reserves. Fig. 7 demonstrates how future demand could beet if production was increased within the remaining phosphorus-
roducing countries, primarily Morocco, due to the size of theiremaining reserves.
The analysis assumes that production will be increased in pro-ortion to the amount of remaining reserves, i.e. those with the
argest reserves will be able to increase production the most. Sinceorocco has considerably more reserves than any other country,
ndeed considerably more than all other countries combined, its assumed that Morocco’s production will increase significantlyo meet the future production deficit. In order to achieve this,
orocco’s production must increase from 26 Mt to over 210 Mt per
Fig. 8. The changing share of ph
and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86
year, an 8-fold increase over the next 70 years to a level which isgreater than the current global production rate. Increasing produc-tion requires extensions to existing mines and the developmentof new mines and related infrastructure, which will take time andmay represent a financial investment in the region of hundreds ofmillions to billions of U.S. dollars (Van Kauwenbergh, 2010). Suchincreases in production may not be possible but it is beyond thescope of this paper to determine Morocco’s maximum productioncapacity. It is clear, however, that no other country would be capa-ble of sustaining such production levels. In fact, without Moroccanproduction the increasing world demand would deplete the rest ofthe world’s 15 billion tonnes of reserves within 65 years. Therefore,Morocco will have to sustain a large share of future production asit is the only country with reserves large enough to do so.
Consequently, the future share of global production is likely tobe considerably different than it is today. Just 7 countries will havereserves remaining by 2100 and therefore these will be the onlycountries able to produce phosphate rock. Currently the world’slargest producers of phosphate rock, China and the USA will have adecreasing share of world production in the future as their reservesare depleted throughout the century. Morocco is therefore likely togain an increasing share of global production and increasing controlover the market price for phosphate rock. This trend is shown inFig. 8.
Fig. 8 shows the current situation for global production in 2010,and the estimated future situation based on the assumptions madein this analysis. The analysis shows that the trend for future pro-duction is to become more concentrated than it is today, with theworld relying increasingly on Moroccan production to sustain theglobal demand. The results suggest that Morocco will be respon-sible for over 20% of global production by 2020, over 40% by 2050and around 80% by 2100. This will give Morocco significant controlof global production and also increasing control over the marketprice of phosphate rock in the future. This reliance on Morocco is
also suggested by IFA/UNEP (1998) and the results are compara-ble to those of Van Vuuren et al. (2010) who estimated that by2050, Africa would totally dominate the market with over 50% ofproduction.osphate rock production.
J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conservation and Recycling 57 (2011) 78–86 85
ution
tdhptaitwi
5
pypwwfit
•
•
•
•
Fig. 9. The changing distrib
The distribution of world phosphate rock reserves is also likelyo be different in the future than it is today, owing to the fact thatifferent countries operate different R/P ratios. Morocco currentlyas the largest estimated R/P ratio and, despite the large increases inroduction shown in Fig. 7, by 2100 Morocco’s R/P ratio will still behe largest in the world, at around 185 years. Since Morocco startsnd ends the analysis with the highest R/P ratio, then proportionallyt is depleting its reserves slower than the other countries, meaninghat between now and the end of the century the proportion oforld reserves controlled by Morocco will increase. This is shown
n Fig. 9.
.1. Limitations
The analysis presents the possibility of a future phosphate rockroduction deficit, suggests how this deficit might be met and anal-ses how this would affect the distribution of reserves and share ofroduction. To simplify the analysis, a number of key assumptionsere implemented (see Section 4) which should be consideredhen interpreting these results. Indeed, it is not intended that exactgures be drawn from this analysis, but instead that the overallrends are considered.
Important trends:
The demand for phosphate rock is expected to increase. Howmuch this increases does not affect the overall trends presentedin this paper. Increasing demand accelerates intensification ofphosphorus reserves and supply.US and Chinese reserves will be mostly or completely depletedthis century, and with them around half of world’s current phos-phate rock production.This production will be mostly transferred to Morocco, as the only
reserve large enough to sustain such production levels. Therefore,Morocco will obtain a much greater share of global production.Morocco has the highest R/P ratio, currently at around 2000years, which is much higher than the world average of 370 years.of phosphate rock reserves.
Excluding Morocco, the world average is 100 years. Morocco willobtain an even greater share of global reserves in the future.
6. Conclusion
Significant increases to the USGS phosphate rock reserve esti-mates in 2011 mean that there is now an estimated 370 years ofreserves left at current extraction rates, compared to less than 100years with previous estimates. These reserves are geographicallyconcentrated, with around three-quarters controlled by Moroccoalone, and production is also noticeably concentrated, with threecountries (China, US and Morocco) responsible for two-thirds ofproduction. The fact that individual countries currently operatedifferent reserve-to-production (R/P) ratios is likely to alter thedistribution of reserves and production in the future. The aim ofthis paper was to investigate the likely trends and analyse the pre-dicted shifts in distribution and production of phosphate rock. Theanalysis finds that:
• Globally, reserves may last 300–400 years, but most countries willhave depleted their reserves within 100 years resulting in a consid-erable production deficit. The global figure is largely distorted byMorocco, with an R/P ratio of nearly 2000 years. The countries thatcurrently have R/P ratios less than 100 years are responsible forover 70% of global production, so depletion of these reserves willresult in a considerable production deficit within the 21st centuryof around 125 Mt per year. China and the US together accountfor over half of the world’s current production and both will bedepleted within 60 years at current extraction rates. Therefore,simply maintaining current production levels will require sig-nificant increases in production within some counties to offsetdepletion within others, considerably altering the future produc-tion landscape.
• Rising demand for phosphate rock will further increase the futureproduction deficit. It is likely that rising populations and per capitademand for phosphorus will result in a much greater demand forphosphate rock in the future. This analysis assumes the demand
8 rvation
•
•
pepppictautf
A
wr
R
B
BB
C
C
C
C
C
D
6 J. Cooper et al. / Resources, Conse
for phosphate rock will rise from 176 Mt in 2010 to 262 Mt by2050, achieved with an average growth rate of 1% per year, beforelevelling off with 0% growth between 2050 and 2100. This sce-nario results in a production deficit of over 200 Mt per year by2075, which is greater than the current production rate.Morocco will obtain a much larger share of global production.Assuming that production will increase in each country in pro-portion to the size of their reserves, most of this additionalproduction must occur in Morocco. Under these assumptions,Morocco’s contribution to global production will increase fromaround 15% in 2010 to over 40% by 2050 and around 80% by 2100.Morocco will also increase its share of global reserves. Since Moroccocurrently has the largest R/P ratio and, despite the markedincreases to production projected in this analysis, will continue tohave the largest ratio throughout the analysis period, it is deplet-ing its reserves slower than other countries, and hence its shareof global reserves increases. Within this analysis, it is estimatedthat Morocco’s share of reserves could increase from around 77%today to over 88% by 2100.
To conclude, the delicate geopolitical situation that surroundshosphate rock reserves is likely to intensify as Morocco obtains anven greater share of reserves and a much greater share of globalroduction. This monopoly situation raises concerns for futurehosphorus security, and unless other primary sources of phos-horus can be accessed or the amount of phosphorus recycling is
ncreased, the world will become increasingly reliant on a singleountry for an essential resource. The increasing uncertainty abouthe future of phosphate rock supplies suggests that moving towardsfood-production system that increases efficiency of phosphorusse and increasingly recycles phosphorus containing wastes backo agriculture should be made a priority to ensure phosphorus andood security for the future.
cknowledgement
This research is supported by an EPSRC CASE Studentship awardith UK Water industry Research “Towards a closed loop phospho-
us management system for the UK”.
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