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The Future of Containerization: Box Logistics in Light of Global Supply ChainsJean-Paul RODRIGUEDepartment of Economics & GeographyHofstra University, Hempstead, New York 11549, USA
Theo NOTTEBOOMITMMA – University of AntwerpKeizerstraat 64, 2000 Antwerp, BELGIUM
Containerization, Production and Distribution
• Introduction: Looking Back at 50 Years of Containerization
• Containers in Global Supply Chains• Challenges to Liner Shipping Networks• Ports and Terminals: Convergence and
Divergence• Pressures on Inland Distribution
Looking Back at 50 Years of Containerization
• Intermodal Integration• 50 years of stepwise technical improvements.
• Growth and Diffusion• Forces shaping containerization and its adoption.
• Peak Growth?• A look at the inflection of the logistic curve.
Major Steps in Intermodal Integration
Pallets (1930s)
TOFC (1950s)
Containerization (1956)
Standardization (size and latching) (1965)
Transatlantic (1966); Containerships (1968)
Deregulation (1980s)
Doublestacking; IBCs (1985)
COFC (1967)
Time
Inte
rmod
al In
teg
rati
on Advanced Terminals
Regionalization
Advanced Containers
Intermodal rail crane (1985)
Two Processes behind Containerization: Growth and Diffusion
Diffusion (Functional and Geographical)
Gro
wth
Globalization
Global containerized commoditychains (Optimal: 75% ?)
Experimental nichemarkets
Regionalization
Port / inlandterminals systems
Diffusion: Degree of Containerization, Selected European Ports, 1980-2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Hamburg
Le Hav
re
Algec
iras
Rotterd
am
Antwer
p
Genoa
Mar
seill
es
Zeebru
gge
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
The Largest Available Containership, 1970-2006 (in TEUs)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
World Container Traffic, 1980-2005. Reaching Peak Growth?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
TEU
Divergence
Adoption Acceleration Peak Growth Maturity
1966-1992
1992-2002
2002-2010(?)
2010(?) -
Containers in Global Supply Chains
• Logistics and the Velocity of Freight• Intermodalism and pull logistics
• Containerized Global Production Networks• The container as a production, transport and
distribution unit
The Velocity of Freight: From Push to Pull Logistics
Push Logistics
Shipment Speed
Transshipment Speed
Pull Logistics
Containerization
Speed barrier
Logistical threshold
Future improvements
Containerized Global Production Networks
Container
Production Distribution
Transport
Modes, terminals, intermodal and transmodal operations
Flow management (time-based), warehousing unit
Synchronization of inputs and outputs (batches)
Challenges to Liner Shipping Networks
• Liner Service Networks in Transition• Reconciling frequency, direct accessibility and
transit times.• Schedule Integrity Issues
• Port congestion as the main factor.• New Intercontinental Shipping Routes
• Circum-hemispheric maritime / land interface.
Liner Shipping Networks: Variety of Scales and Services
Conventional liner / break bulk services
Mainline services
Feeder services
First order network
Second order network
Third order network
Regional Port System
Regional Port System
Schedule Integrity of Liner Services on Specific Trade Routes
53%
63%
44%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Transatlantic
Transpacific
Asia / Europe(Med)
Circum Hemispheric Rings of Circulation
Equator
North American Landbridge
Eurasian Landbridge
Circum-Equatorial Maritime Highway
Arctic Routes
Atlantic Connector
Pacific Connector
Ports and Terminals: Convergence and Divergence
• Convergence: Terminalization and Value Capture• Terminals and commodity chains.
• Divergence: Planning Process• Scarcity in terminal capacity.
Commodity Chain
The Value Capture Process along Commodity Chains
Port Holding
Port
Aut
horit
yMaritime Services
Inland Services
Port Services
Horizontal Integration / VerticalVertical Integration
Maritime Shipping
Port Terminal Operations
Inland Modes and Terminals
Distribution Centers
Delays in the Planning Process: Some Cases in Northwest Europe
Development of initial plans
Proposed date for start
operations (first phase)
Earliest date for start terminal
operations
Le Havre ‘Port 2000’ – France 1994 2003 2006Antwerp – Deurganck Dock - Belgium 1995 2001 2005Rotterdam – Euromax Terminal – the Netherlands
2000 2004 2008
Rotterdam – Maasvlakte II – the Netherlands
1991 2002 2013/2014
Deepening Westerscheldt -the Netherlands/Belgium
1998 2003 2008?
Wilhelmshaven/JadeWeserPort - Germany NA 2006 2010Cuxhaven - Germany NA 2006 NeverDibden Bay – UK NA 2000 NeverLondon Gateway – UK NA 2006 2009Felixstowe South – UK NA 2006 2007Hull Quay 2000/2005 NA 2000 2007
Some Terminal Development Options
Congestion level
High
Low
(A)Initial situation
(C) New terminals along
the wider coastline
(D)New terminals/portsnear existing ports
SEA LAND
(B)New terminal development
in existing ports
Multi-port gateway region
Corridor
Pressures on Inland Distribution
• Imbalances and Repositioning• Coping with macro-economics and the global
structure of production.• Port Regionalization
• Improving the maritime / land interface.• Maritime Gateways
• Corridors and the logistical hinterland.
Imbalances and Container Repositioning Strategies
Repositioning Distance (TEU – KM)
Unit R
epositioning Costs
Local
Regional
International
Container manufacturing costs
(Empty interchange)
(Intermodal repositioning)
High imbalance
Low imbalance
Repositioning not economically feasible (Overseas repositioning)
Imbalances not considered a problem
High limit of feasible actions
Low limit of feasible actions
Port Regionalization and the Development of Logistics Poles
Com
pany
-spe
cific
logi
stic
s ne
twor
k
LAND
SEA
Primary and secondary logistics zone
Multimodal transshipment center
Logistics site
Logistics Pole
Transport corridor
Container port / terminal
Logistics zone / site
Strongly developed corridor
Poorly developed corridor
Multi-port gateway region
Pacific-Asia(e.g. Pearl River Delta)
North American West Coast(e.g. LA/Long Beach)
North Europe(e.g. Rhine Scheldt Delta)
Landbridge
Gateways and the Logistical Hinterland
Conclusion: Containerization Reaching Maturity
• Risks in supply chains• Growing efforts spent at dealing with disruptions.
• Coexistence of shipping networks• Flexibility in routing options in light of global
production networks (costs / time options).• Development of multi-port gateway regions
• New port hierarchies and a multiplication of the number of ports engaged in containerization.
• Three scales of inland containerization• Continental: high capacity long distance corridors.• Regional: integration between maritime and inland
transport systems.• Local: advanced terminals.