TThhee FFuuttuurree ooff SSccoottllaanndd

An IFF World Game

Held on Monday 12th

November 2012

Hosted by

The Glasgow Centre for Population

Health

Facilitated by Anthony Hodgson

and Andrew Lyon

2pm to 5:30pm

Today’s Game Challenge

Developing a Resilient ScotlandMonday 12th November 2012

Centre for Population Health

Glasgow

• How might we best prepare for the multiple impacts on Scotland of world turbulence over the next decade?

• What should we be doing now to be able to take care of the future of Scotland?

Resilience Characteristics

• Alertness

• Anticipation

• Readiness with innovations

• Capacity to bounce back (threats)

• Capacity to bounce beyond (opportunities)

• 21st Century Competences

IFF World Game Outline

A collaborative learning experience

where you role play anticipating and responding to future global challenges as

they affect your locality.

PRELIMINARY – Purpose and Nature• orientation to the game• briefing on the game focus• a llocating roles

ROUND1 – The Challenge to Resi lience• studying the briefs• identifying concerns• mapping concerns around the World Model

ROUND 2 – What to be Ready For• trios of synchronous impact• generating scenario stories• sharing scenario stories

ROUND 3 – Evoking Wise Counsel• creating wise declarations• sharing in a wisdom circle• appraising resilience

REVIEW• resilience learnings

About 3-4 hours

global challenges as

Purpose and Nature

The Challenge to Resi lience

concerns around the World Model

IFF World Game

Given the trends and threats of the global situation, what are our concerns for the future of Scotland?

Me nta l h ea lth

det erio rat ing

p lus sta tus

anxie ty

Un eq ual ac ce ss

t o he althy f ood

p lus se cur it y

imp act

Tou rism

aff ecte d by

emb ar goe s o n

tra nsp ort

Chan ging

ba lan ce of gr id

po wer disru pts

lea ving g ap

u nfilled by fos sil fu el

Socie ty un able

to d eal with t he

co nse que nces

o f abr up t

climat e cha ng eVuln era ble to

un for esee n

a bru pt d isloca tions in

e cosys tems

Disru ptio n of

wa ter s upp ly b y

big s tor ms

Failu re o f

de gr ading

infr ast ruct ures

In cre asin g

incid en ce of

rio ts due to

ineq ua litie s

Inf lu en ce of ma rke t gr ows

a s doe s vote r

a pat hy

Weak ene d

dem ocr atic

sy stem

f rag me nts

so ciety

Exclu sive

pu rsu it o f e con omic

g ro wth lea ds to

b rittle s ocie ty

Concerns about the

future resi lience of

Scotland

Supposing three incidents happened simultaneously to hit Scotland, what are the scenarios and what would wide anticipatory actions be?

IFF World Game

Scenario A

Globali zation Drives a Wedge

Worldview

What is the scenario the 3 impacts create?

Being stuck in a destructive pattern

What is the big challenge to resilient Scotland?

Widening inequality leading to health and social problems – e.g.

violence, suicides , communicable dise ases, poor mental he alth

W hat ideas for w ise init iatives do you suggest?

Community focused energy policy : benefits reinvested locally e.g . in housing

Better investment in energy efficient affordable housing.

New models of local democracy based on community strengths and assets.

Energy Habitat

Failu re o f

de gra ding

infr astr uctu res

Exc lusive p urs uit of

eco nom ic

gro wth le ads to

brit tle soc iety

Ch ang ing

ba lance o f gr id

po wer d isru pts

leav ing ga p

un filled b y f ossil

fue l

In spi te of renewables boom energy profits flow

abroad and high proportion of Scots in energy poverty

Scottish society caught in the tension between globalisa tion and

local insulari ty thus becoming backwater

Wide gap has opened up between incomes and

a ffordable housing to buy or to rent

IFF World Game

Scenario B

Escape from Scotland

Wellbeing Climate Wealth

What is the scenario the 3 impacts create?

•Record scrounger deaths allev iate financial crisis

•Public purse eases as extreme weather closes Scot land dow n

•NHS in jeopardy as rich flee superbug for more temperate climes

What is the big challenge to resi lient Scotland?

Weak systems (e.g. social ) limit our abi lity to mobili se al l of our human resources

What ideas for wise initiatives do you suggest?-Compassion nation

-Reorganise perspect ive to respect inter- connections of life

-Move towards local forms of engaged democracy

Me nta l h ealth det erio rat in g

p lus sta tus anxie ty

Socie ty un ab le

to d ea l wit h the cons equ ences

of ab ru pt clima te ch ang e

Incr ea sing in cide nce of

r iots d ue to ine qu alities

Severe epidemic of unknown bug challenges capacity to keep

society moving

Increasing osci llation between weather extremes

interrupts and d isrupts normal functioning of

s ociety

High dependency on public sector jobs leads

to crash as financial wealth flows out of

Scotland

IFF World Game

Scenario C

Nature Trumps Politics

Food Biosphere Governance

What is the scenario the 3 impacts create?

Food rationing / hoarding/ theft

What is the big challenge to resil ient Scotland?

Getting message of seriousness of situat ions across in a way that people respond to positively

What ideas for wise ini tiatives do you suggest?

Urban farming; local sourcing; extensive local production

Une qua l access

to h ealt hy foo d

plu s secu rity

im pa ct

Vu lne rab le to

u nfo re seen

ab rup t

dislo catio ns in

eco system s

In flue nce o f

mar ket g row s

as do es vo ter

ap ath y

Global crop failure nearly doubles the cost of essential foodstuffs imported

into Scotland

Unsympathetic land management and biased planning decisions rapidly

eroding unprotected ecologies

Fatigue with politica l wrangling and decline

leads to boycott of elections and protest

marches

IFF World Game

Scenario D

Youth Strikes Back

WaterTrade Community

What is the scenario the 3 impacts create?

W hat is the big challenge to resilient Scotland?

I mpacts of globalisation and our ‘inability’ to act in the best

inte rests of the people (and the eco-environment) of Scotland

What ideas for wise ini tiatives do you suggest?

Creation of a different political reality that pre-empts the

‘perfect storm’ of scarcity, unrest and uncertainty.

To uris m

af fect ed by

em bar go es on

tr ansp ort

Disru ptio n of

wa ter supp ly b y

big stor ms

Wea kene d

dem ocr atic

sy stem

f rag me nts

so ciet y

Rising political conflict leads to withdrawa l of investment and loss of

global trade

Water infrastructure breaking down under

stress and from inadequate investment

Youth social networks rally protests at the unavailabi lity

of meaningful jobs and scope for contribution

Youth unrest/conflict

Political conflict Uncertainty and lack of investment

PERFECTSTORM

Having considered the big picture, what are our advisory declarations to guide Scotland towards a desirable future?

Sustain our

communities

Everybody is

a somebody

☺

Fare and

share – eat

local, act

global

Let us

understand

indepen-

dence

Participative

integrated

ecological

creative beautiful

decision making

Energy –

Where’s

yours?

Minister of

Ecology with veto

power over

commerce and

government

Pure water

now for all

citizens of

Scotland

Everybody

matters

Wellbeing

equally

distributed

is wealth

Let a

thousand

flowers bloom

(McMao!)

Wisdom is the

alchemy of

knowledge,

empathy &

understanding

Our Wisdom Circle

Advice

Wisdom Wheel Declarations

1 WELLBEING

Everybody is a Somebody

Recognise everybody is a somebody with valuable contributions to make and that it is essential for us to liberate their untapped skills and perspectives in the service of all

Value: Personal creativity as essential to peace and sustainability

2 FOOD

Fare and Share – eat local, act global

Tackle our individual and collective ‘waste of energies’ of overconsumption, disposal of uneaten food and disconnection with food sources

Value: wider benefits of greater sharing of food resources across the globe

3 TRADE

Let us understand independence

Understand how to achieve real local and national self-sufficiency of resources and realistic distribution for needs of individuals and families

Value: Freedom

4 ENERGY

Energy – where’s yours?

Formulate and embed a policy on energy supply and consumption that is sustainable and delivers affordable energy

Value: well informed individual choice

5 CLIMATE

Participative integrated ecological creative beautiful decision making

Develop perspectives and action which understands the rapidity of climate change as a consequence of the interconnected impacts of how we live our lives – mobilise a way of life that makes friends with the climate

Value: truth, goodness , beauty, emergence

6 BIOSPHERE

Appoint a Minister of Ecology with veto powers over commerce and government

Place ecological health of Scotland ay the centre of all education, policy and commercial life

Value: Awareness based on knowledge not fear or money

7 WATER

Pure water for all citizens

Understand how to act in accordance with the real needs of people, country and planet

Value: healthy people in our nation

8 HABITAT

Everybody matters

Establish a stronger sense of community an communal responsibility. A stronger sense of belonging and being able to make a difference that leads to positive change.

Value: community

9 WEALTH

Wellbeing, equally distributed, is wealth

To accept the pursuit of and further maldistribution of wealth as the moral compass for Scotland no longer makes any sense.

Value: equity

10 GOVERNANCE

Let a thousand flower bloom (Mac Mao!)

Develop many and varied forms and formats of political engagement at a community local and Scottish level – a wider and deeper and more networked civic society

Value: Creative participation

11 COMMUNITY

Wisdom is the alchemy of knowledge, empathy & understanding

Understand and embrace the inherent complexity of our world. Recognise the interconnection of our species and the environment we inhabit. Take action which acknowledges our responsibility for future generations

Value: Love is the vital natural resource

12 WORLDVIEW

Sustain our communities

Have a Scotland which values sustainability over economic growth and where communities protect, control and sustain their own resources