The Future of work and demographic patterns in the Caribbean › wcmsp5 › groups › public › ---americas › ---ro-lim… · -Continue promoting active and healthy ageing , and

Lydia Rosa GényAssociate Social Affairs Officer

ECLAC Subregional headquarters for the Caribbean

ILO-Salises Research Consultation 4 December 2017

Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

The Future of work and demographic

patterns in the Caribbean

Introduction

• Population ageing in the Caribbean

• Major aspects and trends in migration in the Caribbean

• The impact of demography and policy on current and future levels of public expenditure

• Some considerations for the future of work

3

The Caribbean population by age

(millions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

0-14 15-59 60+Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC,

2016 4

Caribbean population by age and sex, selected years

1990-2060 (thousands)

450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Male 1990 Female

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 5



450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Male 2010 Female

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016 6



450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Male 2030 Female

7



450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Male 2040 Female

Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

8



450 350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350 450

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+

Male 2050 Female


9

The Caribbean population

2015 and 2035 (thousands)

500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+ Male Female

2015 2035Source: F.Jones, Ageing in the Caribbean and the human rights of older persons: Twin imperatives for action. ECLAC, 2016

10

Older persons in the Caribbean by sex and age, 2000 -2050 (Thousands)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

A. Males

60-69 70-79 80-89 90+

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

B. Females

60-69 70-79 80-89 90+


11

Child, Old Age And Total Dependency

Rates For The Caribbean(Number of persons per hundred people aged 15-64 years)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

0-14 65 and over Total


12

Old age dependency rates by region

(65+/15-64)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Latin America

North America

The Caribbean

Europe

Africa


13

Old age dependency ratio by country, 2015, 2030 and 2045 (65+/(15-64))

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Belize Guyana Suri-name

Antiguaand

Barbuda

SaintVincentand the

Grenadines

Grenada Baha-mas

TheCaribbean

SaintLucia

Trinidadand

Tobago

Jamaica Aruba Barbados Curaçao Guade-loupe

TheUnitedStates

Virgin Islands

Marti-nique

2015 2030 2045

Source: F.Jones, V. Nam, the implications of population ageing for social expenditure in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017

Immigrants and emigrants: population and relative weight, by country and territory, 2015(Number of persons and percentages)

Source : William Mejía , Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015[online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml


Source : William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015. Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015[online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml


Source: William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean , ECLAC, 2017, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2015[online] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates15.shtml

Millions/Population

0 10 20 30 40 50

Immigrants

Emigrants

Inhabitants

Destination of Emigrants

28%

6%

16%18%

8%

4%

6%3%

11%

Haiti

Dominican Republic

Other Caribbean

countriesUS

France

Spain, the Netherlands,

UKGuyana, Colombia and

VenezuelaOther LA and Central

American countriesOthers

Country of origin of immigrants

72%

5%

9%

3% 9%

2% US

Canada

Spain, France, the

Netherlands, UK

Other European countries

Caribbean

Continental Caribbean

Other

Caribbean, total immigrants by sex and age group, 2015

Source: William Mejía, Outlook on international migration in the Caribbean , ECLAC, 2017, based on UNDESA data, 2015

Source: Prepared by William Mejía, on basis of OECD.Stat, “Health Workforce Migration” [online] https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=HEALTH_WFMI.

The Impact of Demography and Policy on Current and Future Levels of Public

Expenditure on Education, Pensions and Healthcare

Education

spending:Aggregate

Spending

(Per cent of

GDP)

Antigua and Barbuda 2.6

Bahamas 2.3

Barbados 5.9

Belize 6.6

Grenada 4.0

Guyana 3.7

Jamaica 6.3

Saint Lucia 3.6

Saint Vincent and the

Grenadines 5.1

Trinidad and Tobago 2.9

Caribbean (10)

average 4.3

OECD (29) average 5.3

Denmark 7.5

Australia 4.3

Italy 4.2

Pension spending:Aggregate

Spending

(Per cent

of GDP)


Bahamas 2.3

Barbados 7.2

Belize 2.6

Grenada 3.3

Guyana 4.0

Jamaica 2.4

St Lucia 2.8


Caribbean 9 Average 3.5

OECD 34 Average 7.7Italy 15.3

France 13.3

Austria 13.2

Korea 2.0

Mexico 1.8

Iceland 1.6

Health spending:Aggregate

Spending on

health

(Per cent of

GDP)


Bahamas 3.5

Barbados 4.3

Belize 3.9

Grenada 2.7

Guyana 4.4

Jamaica 3.0

Saint Lucia 4.2

Saint Vincent and the

Grenadines 3.9


Caribbean 10 Average 3.7

OECD 34 Average 6.7Sweden 9.9

Denmark 9.3

New Zealand 9.3

Netherlands 9.1

Korea 3.9

Mexico 3.1

Projected expenditure on education, pensions, and h ealth care (average of 9 countries), 2010-2050 (Ageing only; % of GDP)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Education Pensions Health

Source: F.Jones, V. Nam, the implications of population ageing for social expenditure in the Caribbean, ECLAC, 2017

Some Considerations

• Legal, policy, and institutional frameworks

-12 Caribbean States and territories have implemented laws, policies,or strategies on ageing

-13 Carribean countries in the region do not have a proper frameworkthat effectively addresses the situation of older persons at the nationallevel, including access to decent work, care, among others

Some considerations (cont.)

• Data on ageing and migration

-Improve and/or strengthen the monitoring and evaluation to supportthe national policies on ageing/immigration/labour departments,including the implementation of a system with indicators and thecollection of disaggregated data by age, sex , migratory status,disability, location and any other relevant variable, in order to have acomprehensive assessment of the impacts of existing policies onageing and migration


• Care: new jobs and services

-Foster the implementation of measures that provide home-care services, respite care for informal caregivers and additional services to help families-Continue promoting active and healthy ageing , and improving the nutrition of older persons-Develop comprehensive long-term care systems, with specialisedand sufficiently trained personnel, well versed in the human rights of older persons, as well as public day-care centres, with operational rights-based guidance and standards-Adopt measures aimed at promoting gender equality in caring and unpaid domestic responsibilities and encourage males to consider careers in the caring professions and ensure that their profession and services are recognised.


• Care (cont.)-Adopt or reinforce monitoring and supervisory mechanisms to verify the quality of care offered in public and private care settings, including care provided at older persons’ domiciles, with adequate and sufficient trained inspectors able to report to authorities-Put additional efforts into extending training and coverage of geriatric and gerontological care at the different levels of health care and across the countries. Inclusion of geriatrics and gerontology in curricula at all levels, and in nursing and caregivers training programmes-Adopt measures that integrate palliative care into medical and nursing curricula and improve older persons’ access to such care, including by raising awareness on its importance that allow those with terminal illnesses to avoid unnecessary suffering and die with dignity-More research and support to older persons with chronic degenerative diseases, Alzheimer's and other forms of dementia.


• Work: rethinking the position of older persons and migrantsin the labour market

-Include age as one of the proscribed grounds for discrimina tion in employment law and policies in order to promote inclusive labour markets and eliminate all barriers faced by older persons in the formal labourmarket-Consider legal reforms to enable older persons to continue workingbeyond the statutory retirement age if they are able and willing to doso, with the adoption of flexible working hours and retirementarrangements, organisation of tasks and accessible workingenvironments and other forms of income generating activities-Promote measures encouraging older persons’ participation inentrepreneurship and volunteer programmes , and trainingprogrammes, vocational training and job placement, including in the areasof computing, communication, information and technology-To encourage international cooperation to recognize at the time ofmigrant’s return, the qualification, education and skills acquired in thecountries of destinations to facilitate integration into labour markets


• Education: lifelong learning opportunities

-Promote access to lifelong learning through education and training programmes, and adopt specific programmes to reduce illiteracy among older persons, with particular attention to older women, and those living in rural and remote areas, with focus on numeracy, information and, communication technology, and computing skills

-Promote the incorporation of the issue of ageing and old age in curricula at all levels of the education systems and promote intergenerational interactions in schools

-Develop accessible and age-friendly formatted information a nd educational programs, and materials that consider the needs and challenges faced by older persons, in particular those with disabilities, including in Internet and cyberspace related environments

Lydia Rosa Gé[email protected]

Thank you!

ILO-Salises Research Consultation 4 December 2017

Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Documents

The Future of work and demographic patterns in the Caribbean › wcmsp5 › groups › public › ---americas › ---ro-lim… · -Continue promoting active and healthy ageing , and