The Global Observing System for Climate

What is GCOS and why do we need an initiative like ESA CCI ?

15 November 2018, Vienna, AustriaCarolin Richter, GCOS Secretariat, WMO

Second World Climate Conference (WCC-2) Ministerial Session in 1990

“Present observational systems for monitoring the climate system are inadequate for operational and research purposes. They are deteriorating in both industrialised and developing regions…”

“There is an urgent need tocreate a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)built upon the World Weather Watch Global Observing System and theIntegrated Global OceanService System and including both space-based and surface-based components……….”.

The Secretary-General of WMO, G.O.P. Obasi, addressing the opening of the ministerial sessions of the Second World Climate Conference in the Palais des Nations, Geneva, on 6 November 1990. Behind him (left to right) are the Hon. E. Fenech-Adami, Prime Minister of Malta; the Rt Hon. M. Thatcher, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom; HM King Hussein I of Jordan; Federal Councillor A. Köller, President of the Swiss Confederation; M. Rocard, Prime Minister of France; and the Rt Hon. B. Paeniu, Prime Minister of Tuvalu.

IPCC First Assessment Report 1990

IPCC First Assessment Report (1990)

IPCC concluded „that improved predictability of (human induced) climate change would require improved systematic observation of climate related variables on a global basis“

GCOS established April 1992

Rio Conventions - 1992

Article 4.1 (g) Commitments

Article 5 Research and Systematic Observations

Observations for climate services

Services related to climate for months, seasons, years, decades, … ahead

Services related to past and present

climate and vulnerabilities

(Prof. A. Simmons, GFCS II side event, Cg-XVI, 19 May 2011)

Paris Agreement Article 7 (7c): Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate, including research, systemic observation of the climate system and early warning systems.

Article 8:Loss & Damage: Cooperation and facilitation of EWS, emergency preparedness, slow onset events, …

Art 7 (7c)

Art 4 Art 5 Art 7 Art 8 Art 9 Art 10 Art 11 Art 12 Art 13 Art 14

Energy & Temperature

Other Physical Properties

Carbon Cycle and other GHGs

Hydrosphere

Snow & Ice

Biosphere

Human Resource Use

Climate observations alsosupport

GCOS is concerned with

• the observations• what is measured, how it is measured,• where it is measured, how measurement is sustained, • how change is managed

• data transmission• what is transmitted, with what time delay, in what code

• data management, including data rescue• archiving and access to raw data, metadata, processed data

records and products• recovery and rehabilitation of past data

• data records and products• fundamental records, including recalibration and

homogenisation • satellite retrievals, gridded fields from in situ and remotely-

sensed measurements, comprehensive reanalyses ofmultiple observational datasets based on weather-prediction systems

Locations of 36064 surface weather observations received by ECMWF

09-15UTC 12 June 2012

Concept of ECVs published– 2014

https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1Published Online: 30 October 2014

GCOS Satellite Supplement to the Implementation Plan

“Space community requires relative clear and stable statement of requirements for climate monitoring.”

Space Agencies respond to GCOS

2002 – 2nd Adequacy Report

GCOS Progress: Improving global climate observations

Support Adaptation & Mitigation

Water, Energy and Carbon cycles

Additional Essential Climate Variables

More help for networks in developing countries

Climate Indicators

2016

COP-22, Marrakech, Decision 19/CP.22SBSTA Conclusions

2015 2017

ECV Inventory: The Architecture for Climate Monitoring from Space in Action

ESA Climate Change Initiative:Implementing ECVs

Improved observations lead to significant benefits

ECV Requirements, Adequacy Reports, Plans

Observations, Products, Open Data

Science, Assessments, Policy

Climate Services, Risk Assessments, Early Warning & Disaster Risk Reduction Policies

Successful adaptation and mitigation, reduced climate risks, enhanced livelihoods, and food & water security.

ImplementationAims

Evolution of the observing system –Assessment in 2015

Data from IASI and NPP could not be used in 2006 version of assimilation system frozen for ERA-Interim. Use of data from Metop-B was not activated in 2012Data from FY-3 are a candidate for use in future reanalysesCoverage is for SSU-1, HIRS-2, MSU-4, AMSU-A10, AIRS-40

Source: A. Simmons

Some continuing concerns, including

• deterioration of some in situ networks; lack of progress in filling gaps in others

• limited provision for limb sounding and reference measurement from space

but many improvements (that need sustaining) including

• quantity and quality of data from several in situ sources, including radiosondes

• quantity, quality and variety of data from satellites

• recovery and reprocessing of past data, both in situ and remotely sensed

• reanalysis, with coupling of atmosphere to ocean and land, and inclusion of chemistry

• conventional analysis of instrumental records

• converging temperature information from various observational and model datasets

and evolving requirements

• e.g. for global, ground-based, soil-moisture data to complement remote sensing and reanalysis So

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Significant findings in 2015 Status Report for Soil Moisture

The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) has been established and needs to be strengthened.

Lack of standards and formal exchange of data.

Global satellite products available.

There are very few in situ networks that providelong-term and consistent soil-moisture-data records.

Models need improvement.

gcos.wmo.int

GCOS Implementation Plan

@gcos_un

GCOS Implementation Plan 2016 – Actions T15-T18Continue existing observations

Improve existing networks / Future research

Action T15: Satellite soil-moisture data records Regularly update individual microwave sensor (SMOS, SMAP, ASCAT, AMSR-E …) soil-moisture datarecords, including the subsidiary variables (freeze/thaw, surface inundation, vegetation optical depth,root-zone soil moisture)

Action T16: Multi-satellite, soil-moisture data services Regularly update of merged multi-sensor, soil-moisture data records, including the subsidiaryvariables (freeze/thaw, surface inundation, vegetation optical depth, root-zone soil moisture)

Action T17: International soil-moisture network Operate, provide user services and expand the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), which ispart of the GTN-H.

Action T18: Regional high-resolution soil-moisture data record

Develop high-resolution soil-moisture data records for climate change adaptation and mitigation byexploiting microwave and thermal remote-sensing data

StrategyThe new GCOS Strategy is being considered by the partners before its final adoption.

• The GCOS implementation plan has an aim to improve the monitoring of the 3 climate cycles• For carbon the target is to quantify

• fluxes of Carbon related gases to ± 10%• Changes in stocks of carbon to ± 10% on decadal scales on land and in the oceans• Changes in atmospheric annually carbon stocks to ± 2.5%

GCOS has many ECV related to the carbon cycle, the main ones are:

• Ocean Inorganic Carbon• Atmospheric composition of

CO2 and CH4• Greenhouse Gas Fluxes• Soil Carbon, Aboveground

biomass, Permafrost

new GCOS Implementation Plan aims to improve monitoring of Global Climate Cycles

• Carbon Budget• Quantify fluxes of carbon-related greenhouse gases to +/- 10% on annual

timescales• Quantify changes in carbon stocks to +/- 10% on decadal timescales in the

ocean and on land, and to +/- 2.5 % in the atmosphere on annual timescales

• Global Water Cycle• Close water cycle globally within 5% on annual timescales

• Global Energy Balance• Balance energy budget to within 0.1 Wm-2 on annual timescales

• Explain changing conditions of the biosphere• Measured ECVs that are accurate enough to explain changes of the biosphere

(for example, species composition, biodiversity, etc.)

ECV: Soil Moisture

ECV in brief:Domain: Land

Subdomain: Hydrology

• ECV approved in 2010, GCOS 2010 update of Implementation Plan

• Required to completely monitor the global water and energy cycles

• Major effect on the partitioning of incoming radiation into latent and sensible heat and allocation of precipitation into runoff, subsurface flow and infiltration

• Soil moisture is intimately involved in the feedback between climate and vegetation

Soil Moisture requirements

Extract from GCOS 2016 Implementation Plan

PRODUCT DEFINITION FREQUENCY RESOLUTIONREQ. MEAS.

UNCERT.STABILITY REFERENCES

Surface Soil Moisture

Average water content in topmost soil layer (0-5 cm)

Daily 1-25 km 0.04 m3/m3 0.01 m3/m3/year WMO (2008b)

Freeze/ThawFlag indicating whether the land

surface is frozen or notDaily 1-25 km 90% tbd

Surface Inundation

Flag indicating whether the land surface is inundated or not

Daily 1-25 km 90% tbd

Root-Zone Soil Moisture

Average soil moisture content in root-zone layer

Daily 1-25 km 0.04 m3/m3 0.01 m3/m3/year

Current thoughts for update by 2022:

• Clearer definitions of requirements and a rationale, explaining each number should be added

• Numbers for Threshold, Breakthrough and Goal will be considered

• Definition of Surface inundation needs to be developed since it likely occurs at the sub-pixel level

• For Root-zone requirements, discussions with land surface and vegetation modelers are needed

Update process will be public: TOPC has created a forum, where community can register and discuss

gcos.wmo.int@gcos_un