Dr. Sebastian L. v. Gorka:Dr. Sebastian L. v. Gorka:

The Grand Strategy of The Grand Strategy of Al Qaeda: How the Enemy Al Qaeda: How the Enemy LearnsLearns

Based on: HASC Congressional Testimony and the article: Inside Al Qaeda, AG, May 2012

Joint Chiefs of StaffPAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN FED FORUM

05/04/2012

DisclaimerDisclaimer

The views herein expressed do not The views herein expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the necessarily reflect the views of the US Department of Defense or any US Department of Defense or any other US Government Department other US Government Department or Agency or Agency

Eleven years into this war, we still do not adequately Eleven years into this war, we still do not adequately understand the Enemyunderstand the EnemyAQAM is moving from a kinetic strategy of AQAM is moving from a kinetic strategy of GuevaristGuevaristinsurgency to a Maoist strategy that incorporates an insurgency to a Maoist strategy that incorporates an indirect and nonindirect and non--kinetic approachkinetic approachWe must stop seeing war as solely functional and We must stop seeing war as solely functional and ClausewitzianClausewitzianWe must stop focusing predominantly on the kinetic: We must stop focusing predominantly on the kinetic: our Enemy can achieve its goals without using our Enemy can achieve its goals without using violenceviolence

MESSAGEMESSAGE

IW IS THE FUTUREIW IS THE FUTURE

GWOTGWOTbegatbegat

Long WarLong Warbegatbegat

(CIST)(CIST)begatbegat

CVECVEbegatbegat

OCOOCO

US Strategy in Bumper StickersUS Strategy in Bumper Stickers

Bush Bush AdministrationsAdministrations

ObamaObamaAdministrationAdministration

WhWhy doesy does al Qaedaal Qaeda ExistExist??CrucialCrucial datesdates in 20in 20thth Century historyCentury history

19219244 CaliphateCaliphate DissolvedDissolved19241924 Creation of the Muslim BrotherhoodCreation of the Muslim Brotherhood1948 1948 Creation of IsraelCreation of Israel, loss of Palestine, loss of Palestine19791979 Soviet Invasion of ASoviet Invasion of AFGFG

Iranian Revolution Iranian Revolution andandthethe Siege of MeccaSiege of MeccaMAK (protoMAK (proto--AQ) createdAQ) created

1988 1988 Soviet WithdrawalSoviet Withdrawal from AFGfrom AFG1990/1 1990/1 Fall of USSRFall of USSR andand Gulf War IGulf War I

–– AQ goes from AQ goes from int. guerrilla org.int. guerrilla org.to to global terrorist organizationglobal terrorist organization

What is AQAM’s Strategy?

The World as Heretical, to be cleansed forcibly by Holy War. Islam is a “Revolutionary Party”Sayyed QUTB

Jihad as a Global BrandAbdullah AZZAM

We can Destroy the Zionist-Crusaders as we did the Soviet Union. All believers must fight. Ayman al-ZAWAHIRI

War’s Objective is God’s Sovereignty. Terror is the main weapon in warBrig S.K. Malik

Al QaedaAl Qaeda’’s Mistake: s Mistake: The BrotherhoodThe Brotherhood’’s Strengths Strength

FocoistFocoist InsurgencyInsurgency((CheChe Guevara, TopGuevara, Top--down)down)

VersusVersus

Maoist InsurgencyMaoist Insurgency(Ground up, (Ground up, ““PeoplePeople’’s Wars War””))

Two Threat Groups, One GoalTwo Threat Groups, One Goal

Non-Violent JihadistsMuslim Brotherhood, Hamas, etc.

Violent JihadistsViolent JihadistsAQ, al AQ, al ShabaabShabaab, etc, etc

Theocratic & Undemocratic Societies

From: S. Gorka and D. Kilcullen: An Actor-Centric Theory of War – JFQ 60, 2011

Why IW is CONVENTIONAL!Why IW is CONVENTIONAL!

Clausewitz versus Irregular WarfareClausewitz versus Irregular Warfare

From: S. From: S. GorkaGorka: : The Age of Irregular Warfare: So What?The Age of Irregular Warfare: So What? –– JFQ 58, 2011JFQ 58, 2011

SO WHAT?SO WHAT?AFGAFG-- and IRQand IRQ--type missions will not be type missions will not be replaced by replaced by ““Big WarBig War””Classic COIN doctrine is very limited in Classic COIN doctrine is very limited in helping us in todayhelping us in today’’s theaters theaterWar will persist to be kinetic in specific War will persist to be kinetic in specific theaters theaters howeverhowever the Enemy has learnt the Enemy has learnt and is shifting to nonand is shifting to non--kinetic and indirect kinetic and indirect modes of warfaremodes of warfareOur Enemy does not believe in ClausewitzOur Enemy does not believe in ClausewitzFocus on the nature of the enemy: Focus on the nature of the enemy: who who they arethey are and and why they fightwhy they fight rather than on rather than on trendy theories of wartrendy theories of war

We had Greater Clarity We had Greater Clarity Eight Years AgoEight Years Ago

““[[T]heT]he United States has to help defeat an United States has to help defeat an ideology, not just a group of people.ideology, not just a group of people.””

The 9/11 Commission ReportThe 9/11 Commission ReportJuly 22 2004July 22 2004

Dr. Sebastian L. v. Dr. Sebastian L. v. GorkaGorkaDirectorDirector

National Security Fellowship ProgramNational Security Fellowship ProgramFOUNDATION for DEFENSE of FOUNDATION for DEFENSE of

DEMOCRACIESDEMOCRACIESTel. 703 300 5014Tel. 703 300 5014

gorka@defenddemocracy.orggorka@defenddemocracy.orgseb.gorka@gmail.comseb.gorka@gmail.com

QUESTIONS?QUESTIONS?