11
12 Winter 2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology I n an interview and paper published in 21st Century in 2007, 1 I have shown that global sea level is not in an alarming ris- ing mode, which is the main threat in the International Panel on Cli- mate Change scenario. If sea level is not rising at a high rate, there is no serious threat and no real prob- lem. In subsequent papers, I con- tinued to present new data on sea level stability. In Mörner 2007b, our field observational database from the Maldive Islands was de- scribed in detail. A new study in Bangladesh was published in 2010 (Mörner 2010a). New data with respect to general sea level changes were published in another paper (2010b). Also, my 1. The interview and article appear in the Fall 2007 21st Century. The interview is available online at www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles%202007/ MornerInterview.pdf THE GREAT SEA-LEVEL HUMBUG There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! by Nils-Axel Mörner One of the approximately 1,190 beautiful coral islands that comprise the nation of the Maldives. As Mörner shows, the Mal- dives are not in danger of inundation. short sea level booklet titled “The Greatest Lie EverTold” (Mörner 2007c) was updated in new editions in 2009 and 2010. Here I will investigate the proposed rates of sea level changes by IPCC and others. Figure 1 illustrates the differences between the IPCC models and the observational facts. After 1965, the two curves start to diverge significantly (the area marked with a question mark). This paper will highlight the differences and seek the solution of what data to trust and what to discard. Figure 2 shows the spectrum of present-day sea level esti- mates. The proposed rates of sea level rise range from 0.0 to 3.2 mm per year. Obviously, all these rates cannot be correct. I will try to straighten out the question mark in Figure 1 by un- dertaking a critical examination of the rates given in Figure 2. Observational Facts Clear observational measure- ments in the field indicate that sea level is not rising in the Mal- Renowned oceanographic expert Nils-Axel Mörner has studied sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 45 years. Recently retired as director of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, Mörner is past president (1999- 2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Chang- es and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Now he has his own company on Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics in Sweden, and can be reached at [email protected]. While the IPCC and its boy scouts present wilder and wilder sea level predictions for the near future, the real observational facts demonstrate that sea level has remained virtually stable for the last 40-50 years.

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Page 1: THE GREAT SEA-LEVEL HUMBUG There Is No …21sci-tech.com/Articles_2011/Winter-2010/Morner.pdf12 Winter 2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology I n an interview and paper published

12 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

In an interview and paper published in21st Centuryin2007,1Ihaveshownthatglobalsealevelisnotinanalarmingris-

ingmode,whichisthemainthreatin the International Panel onCli-mateChangescenario.Ifsealevelisnotrisingatahighrate,thereisnoseriousthreatandnorealprob-lem.Insubsequentpapers,Icon-tinuedtopresentnewdataonsealevel stability. In Mörner 2007b,our field observational databasefromtheMaldive Islandswasde-scribed in detail.Anew study inBangladeshwaspublishedin2010(Mörner2010a).Newdatawith respect to general sea levelchangeswerepublished inanotherpaper (2010b).Also,my

1. The interview and article appear in the Fall 2007 21st Century. The interview is available online at www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles%202007/MornerInterview.pdf

THE GREAT SEA-LEVEL HUMBUG

There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise!

byNils-AxelMörner

Oneoftheapproximately1,190beautifulcoralislandsthatcomprisethenationoftheMaldives.AsMörnershows,theMal-divesarenotindangerofinundation.

shortsealevelbooklettitled“TheGreatestLieEverTold”(Mörner2007c)wasupdatedinneweditionsin2009and2010.

HereIwillinvestigatetheproposedratesofsealevelchangesbyIPCCandothers.

Figure1illustratesthedifferencesbetweentheIPCCmodelsandtheobservationalfacts.After1965,thetwocurvesstarttodivergesignificantly(theareamarkedwithaquestionmark).Thispaperwillhighlightthedifferencesandseekthesolutionofwhatdatatotrustandwhattodiscard.

Figure2showsthespectrumofpresent-daysealevelesti-mates.Theproposedratesofsealevelriserangefrom0.0to3.2mm per year. Obviously, alltheseratescannotbecorrect. Iwill try to straighten out thequestionmarkinFigure1byun-dertakingacriticalexaminationoftheratesgiveninFigure2.

Observational FactsClearobservationalmeasure-

ments in thefield indicate thatsealevelisnotrisingintheMal-

Renowned oceanographic expert Nils-Axel Mörner has studied sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 45 years. Recently retired as director of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, Mörner is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Chang-es and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Now he has his own company on Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics in Sweden, and can be reached at [email protected].

While the IPCC and its boy scouts present wilder and wilder sea level predictions for the near

future, the real observational facts demonstrate that sea level has remained virtually stable for

the last 40-50 years.

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 13

dives, Bangladesh, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and French Guyana(Mörner,2007a,2007b,2007c,2010a,2010b).Alltheseplac-esarekeysitesinthesealeveldebate,wheretheIPCCanditsideologicalassociateshavepredictedterriblefloodingscenar-ios.TherealityistotallydifferentfromwhattheIPCCclaims,however, as highlighted inmy interviewand article in21st Century.

The IPCC group and the Presidents of theMaldivesandTuvalucontinuetoclaimthatthefloodingisinprogress,andwillsoonfloodtheislandsandwipethoseislandnationsoff thesurfaceoftheglobe(orratherocean).Alreadyherewearefacingabehaviorthatwellmightbetermeda“sea-level-gate.”InanopenlettertothePresidentoftheMaldives(Mörner2009),Iaddressedthedivergencebetweenhisclaimand our field observations. No reply hascome.

Bangladeshisanationcursedbydisasters—heavy precipitation in the Himalayas andcoastal cyclones. As if this were not badenough,ithasbeenclaimedthatsealevelisinrapidlyrisingmode.Thisclaimhasbeentotal-lydiscreditedbymystudy in theSundarbanarea,wherethefactsarethat theseahasre-mainedstableforthelast40-50years(Mörner2010a).

Theerroneously inferredsea level risehasbeenusedtocreatewildscenarioswhereitisclaimedthattenstohundredsofthousandsofpeoplemaybedrownedand“millionsofindi-viduals will be displaced from their homesoverthecourseofthecenturyduetosea-levelrise”(ByravanaandRaja2010).Thisis,indeed,

aterriblefalsificationoftheactualsituation.Weareundoubt-edlyfacinga“sea-level-gate.”Thejournalthatpublishedthisfalseclaim,Ethics and International Affairs,refusestoprintacomment“thatfocusesonempiricaldata.”Withsurprise,wemustask:Whatisthemeaningofaddressingmoralconcern,iftheentireempiricalbaseiswrong?

InTuvalu,thePresidentcontinuestoclaimthattheyareinthe

Figure 2RATES OF SEA LEVEL CHANGES (mm/year)

Thespectrumofproposedratesofpresent-daysealevelchangesrangesfrom0.0mm/year,accordingtoobservationalfactsfromanumberofkeysitesallovertheworld,to3.2mm/year,accordingtocalibratedsatellitealtimetry.

Spectrum of estimates of present-day sea level rates

mm

/yea

r

Figure 1SEA LEVEL CHANGES (1840-2010)

Thepinkcurve,“Models,”representstheIPCC’scombinationofselectedtide-gaugerecordsandcorrectedsatellitealtimetrydata.Thebluecurve,“Observations,”representstheobservedeustaticsealevelchangesinthefieldaccordingtoMörner(1973)upto1960and(inthispaper),thereaf-ter.After1965,thetwocurvesstarttodiverge,presentingtwototallydif-ferentviews(separatedbytheareawiththequestionmark),whereonlyoneviewcanbetenable.

Observations

Models

processofbeingflooded.Yet,thetide-gaugedatapro-vide clear indication of a stability over the last 30years(Mörner2007a,2007c,2010b;Murphy2007).InVanuatu,thetide-gaugeindicatesastablesealeveloverthelast14years(Mörner2007c).

From the coasts of French Guyana and Surinamthere is a very excellent sea level record coveringmultiple18.6-yeartidalcycles(Gratiotetal.2008).Itexhibitsvariationsaroundastablezeroleveloverthelast50years(Mörner2010b).Forthesamearea,sat-ellitealtimetrygivesasealevelriseof3.0mm/year.Thiscastscleardoubtonthesatellitealtimetryvalue,asdiscussedfurtherbelow.

ThesealevelrecordfromVenicemaybeusedasatestareaforglobaleustasy.2Subtractingthesubsid-encefactor,itshowsnoriseofeustaticorigin,noac-celerationwhatsoeverinthelastdecades;instead,itshows a sea level lowering around the year 1970(Mörner2007a,2007c).

ThenorthwestEuropeancoastsareinterestingbe-

2. Eustacy or eustatic change (as opposed to changes in land lev-el) refers to changes in the ocean level (earlier thought to be global, but nowadays realized also to be regional, because of horizontal redistribution of water-masses).

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causeherewehavesitesthatareexperi-encingbothupliftandsubsidence. Thetide-gaugeatKorsørintheGreatBelt(thestraitbetweenthemainDanishislandsofZealandandFunen),forexample,islo-cated at the hinge between uplift andsubsidenceforthelast8,000years.Thistide-gaugeshowsnosealevelriseinthelast50-60years.

Thetide-gaugeinAmsterdam,installedin1682,istheoldestintheworld.Super-imposingthissubsidencerecordontheuplift record from the Stockholm tide-gauge,Iwasabletoisolateaeustaticfac-tor for the time period 1680 to about1970 (Mörner 1973).This shows a risefrom1830-1840upto1930-1940of11cm. In that100-yearperiod, theEarth’srate of rotation decelerated at a valuewhichcorrespondstoa10-cmsealevelrise (see, for example, Mörner 1996).Consequently, there is a very good fitbetween sea level rise and rotationaldeceleration,whichseemstoprovideameasureofaglobalsealevelfactor(thebluelinewithrespecttotheredlineinFigure3).

Cuxhaven,ontheGermancoast,hasatide-gaugedatingbackto1843,inanareathatrepresentsthesubsidingsegmentoftheNorthSeacoasts.Figure3showstheannualmeanvaluesfor160years,withalong-termtrendpolynomialfittedtoit(Heroldun-publ.).Thiscurve(blue)givesaslightlysinusoidalrisingtrendthatrepresentsthemeanrelativesealevelchangesinthearea.

AddingtothistheeustaticcomponentofthenorthwesternEuro-peanregion(Mörner1973),wegetpartlythelocalrateofsubsid-ence(redcurve),andpartlytheeustaticcomponent,extendeduptothepresentanddouble-checkedforthepre-1970section(thedifferencebetweentheblueandtheredcurves).

The regional eustatic sea level change decelerates after1930-1940,becomesflataround1950-1970,andfallsfrom1970uptothepresent.Thisprovidesfirmevidencethatsealevelisnotatallinarapidlyrisingmodetoday;ratherthereis

Paulo Filgueiras/U.N. Photo

Theglobalwarmingmaniahascapturedmanyleadersofsmallislandnations.Here,U.N.Secretary-GeneralBanKi-moon(thirdfromleft)addressesabreakfastmeetingwithrepresentativesofsmallislandstates,inCancun,Mexico,onthesidelinesoftheU.N.ConferenceonClimateChange.

Figure 3CUXHAVEN TIDE-GAUGE RECORD

Thegrayareagivestheactualtide-gaugereadingfortheNorthSeaGermanportofCuxhavenfor1843-2003—thatis,for160years.Apolynomialwasfit-ted(byJörnHerold)tothistide-gaugerecord.AddingtheeustaticcomponentofMörner(1973)fortheperiod1840-1970,givesastraightlineofsubsidence(red)witharateof1.4mm/year.Theeustaticcomponent(thedifferencebe-tweentheblueandredcurves)cannowbeextendedupto2003,anditshowsastop in theriseataround1960, followedbyacontinual loweringup to2003;thatis,atrendtotallydifferentfromthatproposedbytheIPCCmodelsbutinfullagreementwiththeobservationalfactsinFigure1.

Thekugelbake,anoldwoodenlighthouseat the North Sea port of Cuxhaven.Thiscoastalareaisanareaofsubsidence.

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 15

theoppositetrend:aslowfallingmode.Thesedataarecombinedinthecurveof“observations”in

Figure1.

Tide-gauge RecordsTide-gaugeswereinstalledatharborconstructionstomea-

surethechangesintidallevelandlong-termsealevelchanges.TheAmsterdamtide-gaugeistheoldest,installedin1682;theStockholm tide-gauge is the second oldest, installed in1724/1774);and theLiverpool tide-gauge is the thirdoldest,installed in1768.Most tide-gaugesare installedonunstableharborconstructionsorlandingpiers.Therefore,tide-gaugere-cordsareboundtoexaggeratesealevelrise.TheNationalOce-anicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)tide-gaugedata-baseincludes159stations(Figure4).

The IPCCauthors take the liberty to selectwhat they call“representative”recordsfortheirreconstructionofthecenten-

nialsealeveltrend.This,of course, implies thattheir personal view—thatis,theIPCCscenariolaid down from the be-ginningof theproject—is imposed in theselec-tionandidentificationoftheir“representative”re-cords.We start to smellanother“sea-level-gate.”

With this selectionmethodology, Douglas(1991) chose 25 tide-gaugesandgotarateofsealevelriseof1.8mm/year;Churchetal.(2006)selected 6 tide-gaugesandgotarateof1.4mm/year;andHolgate(2007)selected 9 tide-gaugesand got a rate of 1.45

Figure 4SPECTRUM OF RATES OF NOAA’s 159 TIDE GAUGE STATIONS

The values of NOAA’s159 tide gauge stationsindicate that they rangefrom uplifted areas tosubsiding areas (greenareas).Iftheupliftingandsubsidingsites(greenar-eas) are excluded, weareleftwithanumberofsites(redarea)wheretherise in sea level rangesbetween 0.0 and 2.0mm/year.Thisisconsid-erably below the rategivenbyIPCC(pinkarea)andsatellitealtimetry(asdiscussedbelow).

mm

/yea

r

Number of tide-gauge stations

Subsidence

IPCC 2007 estimate

Uplift

eseas.org

Atide-gaugeonan industrialpier in theAdriatic. It isgroundedtothebottomwithpiles.

Vyron Lymberopoulos

Amsterdamhastheoldestinstalledtide-gaugeintheworld,datingbackto1682.Whitemarblestones(below)wereinsertedintothelocksbuiltaftersevereflooding(above).

Vyron Lymberopoulos

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mm/year(Figure2).Themeanofallthe159NOAAsitesgivesarateof0.5mm/yearto0.6mm/year(Burton2010).Abet-ter approach, however, is to excludethose sites that represent uplifted andsubsidedareas(Figure4).Thisleaves68sitesofreasonablestability(stillwiththepossibilityofanexaggerationoftherateof change, as discussed above). Thesesitesgiveapresentrateofsealevelriseintheorderof1.0(±1.0)mm/year.Thisisfarbelowtheratesgivenbysatelliteal-timetry, and the smell of a “sea-level-gate”getsstronger.

Satellite AltimetrySatellitealtimetryisawonderfulnew

techniquethatoffersthereconstructionofsealevelchangesallovertheoceansurface.Thisisvital,assealevelnotonlychangesverticallybutalsohorizontally.The horizontal redistribution of watermasseswasfirstobservedforthecenten-nialtodecadalLateHolocenesealevelchanges(see,forexample,Mörner1995and1996) and is clearly shown in thesatelliterecordfrom1992-2010(see,forexample,NichollsandCasenave2010;Casenave and Llovel 2010)). Greatproblems remain with respect to thezerolevelchosenandtothelong-termtrend, however (Mörner 2004, 2007c,2008).

The Topex/Poseidon and later Jasonmissions recorded the variations of theoceansurfacewithhighresolution.Hav-ingappliedalltechnicalcorrectionneed-ed,Menard(2000andalsoAviso2000)presentedafirstsealevelgraphrangingfrom1992to2000(Figure5).

TheFigure5trendof1.0mm/yearisestablishedbythelineartrendapproach,ignoringthefactthatthebighighincy-cles175-200representsanENSO-event.(ENSOistheElNiño/LaNiña-SouthernOscillation, a quasi-periodic climate pattern that occursacrossthetropicalPacificOceaneveryfewyears.)There-fore,amuchmorerealisticapproachistotreatthatENSO-sig-nalasaseparateevent,superimposedonthelong-termtrend,asshowninFigure6(Mörner2004).Figure6showsavariabil-ity(of±10mm)aroundastablezerolevel(blueline)andastrongENSO-event(yellowlines)in1997.Thetrendthereafterislessclear(graylines).Thisgraphprovidesnoindicationofanyriseoverthetime-periodcovered(Mörner2004,2007a,2007c).

Whenthesatellitealtimetrygrouprealizedthatthe1997risewasanENSOsignal,andtheyextendedthetrendupto2003,theyseemedtohavefacedaproblem:Therewasnosealevelrisevisible,andthereforea“reinterpretation”neededtobeun-

dertaken. (Thiswasorallyconfirmedat theGlobalWarmingmeetingheldbytheRussianAcademyofScienceinMoscowin2005,whichIattended).Exactlywhatwasdoneremainsun-clear,asthesatellitealtimetrygroupsdonotspecifytheaddi-tional“corrections”theynowinfer.

In2003,thesatellitealtimetryrecord(Aviso2003)suddenlytook a new tilt—away from the quite horizontal record of1992-2000,seeninFigures5and6—of2.3(±0.1)mm/year(Figure7).

Fromwheredoesthenewtiltcome?WhatliesflatinFigure5of 2000 is now tiltedupward in Figure7of 2003 (Aviso2000,2003).Obviously,somesortof“correction”hasbeenmade,withoutspecifyingthisinawaythatallowsevaluation(seeMörner2007c,2008).Inmostgraphsrepresentingthe

Figure 5SEA LEVEL CHANGES AS OBSERVED BY TOPEX/POSEIDON IN 2000

ThesearetheannualmeansealevelchangesfromTOPEX/POSEIDONsatelliteobservations,aftertechnical“corrections”wereapplied(fromMenard2000).Aslow,long-termrisingtrendof1.0mm/yearwasidentified,butthislinearap-proachignorestheENSOeventincycles175-200.

cm

Cycles 11 (Oct. 1992) to 276 (April 2000)

Figure 6SEA LEVEL CHANGES FROM FIGURE 5,

TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ENSO PEAKThesealevelchangesasrecordedinFigure5arepresentedherewithamorerealistictrendanalysisthattreatsthe1997ENSOpeak(yellow)asaseparateeventsuperimposedonthelong-termtrend.Thisshowsastabilityoverthefirst5years(blue)andpossiblyoverthewholetimeperiodcovered(fromMörner2004,2007c).

Sea level variations in mm

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 17

satellite altimetry sea level record (on the Internet and injournalpapers), it isnotevennoted that thegraphsdonotpresenttrendsasreadbythesatellites,buttrendsafter“cor-rections.”

Originally,itseemedthatthisextra,unspecified“correction”referredtotheglobalisostatic3adjustment(GIA)givenas2.4mm/year(see,forexample,Peltier1998)or1.8mm/year(IPCC2001).The zero isobase of GIA according to Peltier (1998)passedthroughHongKong,whereonetide-gaugegivesarela-tivesealevelriseof2.3mm/year.Thisisexactlythevalueap-pearinginFigure7.Thistide-gaugerecordiscontradictedbythe fourother recordsexisting inHongKong,andobviouslyrepresentsasitespecificsubsidence,afactwellknowntolocalgeologists.

Nevertheless,anewcalibrationfactorhasbeenintroducedintheFigure7graph.AttheMoscowglobalwarmingmeetingin2005,inanswertomycriticismsaboutthis“correction,”oneofthepersonsintheBritishIPCCdelegationsaid,“Wehadtodoso,otherwisetherewouldnotbeanytrend.”TothisIreplied:“Didyouhearwhatyouweresaying?ThisisjustwhatIamac-cusingyouofdoing.”Therefore,inmy2007booklet(Mörner2007c),theFigure7graphwastiltedbacktoitsoriginalposi-tion(Figure5).

The calibrations applied to the satellite altimetry readingswerediscussedinMitchum(2000—cf.CasenaveandNerem2004; Leuliette and Scharroo 2010).The tide-gauge recordsplayacentralroleinthis,implyingsomesortofcircularreason-inginarrivingatthecalibrations.Otherimportantfactorsaretheglobalisostaticadjustment(GIA)andverticalmovementsofthetide-gaugesites.

Mitchum(2000)statesthatinpart,“Weadoptedtherategiv-enbyDouglas(1991,1995)of1.8±0.1mm/yr,”andinpartthat“the tide-gaugeswereassumed tobevertically stable.”Boththeseassumptionsarewrong.The1.8mm/yrrateisnotwelles-tablished,butrathertheopposite(seeFigure2).Thetide-gaugerecords,especiallythoseselected,arefarfromverticallystable,but rather the opposite (this applies for the 6 sites used byChurchetal.aswellasthe25sitesusedbyDouglas).Mitchum(2000) provided the following relations (as expressed in theboxedequationbelow):

3. Isostatic refers to the balance of geological masses and the tendency towards equilibrium.

Eachofthethreeboxes(A,B,andC)includesmultiplevari-ables thatneedpainstakingandskillfulhandling,whichcer-tainlyhasnotbeendonebythegroupsdealingwiththesatellitealtimetryrecordsandtheIPCCcommunity.

Toestablishalocaltide-gaugetrend(boxA),isfarfromsim-pleandstraightforward.Cyclictrends,eventsignals,andseg-mentsmustbeidentifiedandsubtracted.Numerousdifferentvariablesaffectandinterferewiththelong-terntrend.Veryof-ten,thereisnolong-termtrend,justsegmentsthatneedindi-vidualtreatment(asinthecaseoftheBombaytide-gaugere-cord, discussed by Mörner, 2010a). ENSO-events (likeSuper-ENSOevents)mustbesubtracted,asillustratedinFig-ure 6 and shown for theTuvalu record by Mörner (2007c,2010b).

Theproposed“globalsealevelfactor”(boxB)isneverclearand trustworthy; rather, it isamatterofpersonalopinion,asseeninFigure2.Therateof1.8mm/yrissurelyanoverestimatethatisstronglyaffectedbysubsidenceatthetide-gaugesselect-ed(Figure2).Inmyopinion,abettervaluewouldbe0.0mm/yr(orjustalittleabovethis).

Thelocallandmotionatthetide-gaugesites(boxC)isan-otherintricateissuethatcallsforgeologicalunderstandingofthespecificsiteinquestion.Localsedimentarygroundchanges(suchascompaction,waterwithdrawal,andsoon)isaprimefactortoassess(Mörner2004,2010b).Thesechangescannotberecordedbysatellitemeasurements,butonlybysite-specificknowledge.Manytide-gaugesareinstalledonharborconstruc-

Figure 7SEA LEVEL CHANGES AFTER

CALIBRATION IN 2003ThesatellitealtimetryrecordisshownforTOPEX/POSEIDON (black) and Jason(red).Aspresentedin2003(Aviso2003),therecordsuddenlyhasanewtrendrep-resenting an inferred rate of 2.3 (±0.1)mm/year sea level rise.Thismeans thattheoriginalrecordspresentedinFigures5and6nowhavebeentiltedbyafactorof2.3mm/year.Wemustnowask:Fromwheredoesthistiltcome?

cm

Cycle numbers 11 (1992) to 360 (2003)

CLocalLandMotion

A LocalTide-GaugeTrend =

BGlobalSeaLevelTrend –

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tionsandlandingpiersthatarefarfromstable. Crustal movements and seis-motectonicsareotherfactors.InthecaseoftheharborintheMaldivescapitalofMalé,thisislandissoheavilyoverloadedbybuildingthattheharborconstructionsfracture,andaredislocatedinwaysthatinvalidate any trustworthy tide-gaugereadingthere.

Onethingisforsure:satellitealtimetryisnotprovidingwhatisoftenclaimed,an“independent measure of sea levelchanges”asopposedtothatoftide-gaug-es and global isostatic adjustment. In-stead,itisarecorddeeplydependentonthosevariables.

With the space gravimetry observa-tionsfromGRACEithasbecomepossi-bletorecordchangesintheoceanwatermass (Casenaveetal.2009),whichap-proximate the mean global sea levelchanges(Figure8).

Theconceptoftheglobalisostaticad-justment, orGIA, is amodel, inwhichsomedataareinsupport(seeforexam-ple,Peltier1998)andotherdataare indirectcontradiction(forexample,Mörn-er2005).

GIAcorrectionshavebeenappliedtotide-gauges,sealevelrecords,satellitealtime-try,andnowtooceanmasschanges.ItseemsthatwithoutthoseGIAcorrections,thereislit-tleornoroomleftforaglobalsealevelrise.Correcting tide-gauges for GIA or regionalcrustal movement is not the correct way oftreating these typesof records. Instead, eachsite must be evaluated from its own criteriawithrespecttostability,wind,waves,sedimen-tation,compaction,loading,andtectonics.AblindGIAmodelcorrectionmayprovidequitewrong results; it is a dangerous shortcut ap-pliedby thosepersonswhoarenotsea levelspecialistsbytraining,andhencewithouttheskilltoundertakecarefulsite-specificstabilityanalysesthemselves.

Figure9showsthesatellitealtimetryrecordsas presented by NOAA (2008), which give ariseof3.2(±0.4)mm/year.

InFigure10,thesatellitealtimetryrecordofFigure9isback-tiltedtofittheoriginaltrendinFigures5and6fortheperiod1992-2000(yel-lowfields)andtherawdataofGRACEinFigure8,fortheperiod2003-2007(yellowline).Thisgives an uncorrected satellite altimetry graphshowingnosignsofanysealevelrise.Theorig-inalrecordfortheperiod1992-2000isrestored(cf.Figures5and6)andtheGRACErawdatafittherecordperfectlywell.

ThisimpliesthattheFigure9satellitealtim-

Figure 8OCEAN MASS CHANGES FROM GRACE SATELLITE DATA

Thespacegravimetry readings from theGRACEsatellites recordchanges inoceanmasswhichapproximatemeanglobalsealevelchanges(fromCasenaveetal.2009).Therawdatashowaslightloweringby–0.12(±0.06)mm/year(bluedots).Inferringaglobalisostaticadjustment(GIA)correction,whichistobequestioned,Casenaveetal.(2009)establishedacorrectedrateof1.9(±0.9)mm/year(pinkdots).Thedifferenceissignificant.Thequestioniswhetherornotthis“correction”isjustifiable.

Ocean Mass Changes (GRACE)� Sea Level Changes

mm

Raw data

GIA correcteddata

Figure 9SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AS GIVEN BY NOAA

TheTOPEX-Jasonsatellitedataprovidearecordsuggestingameansealevel rise over the period 1993-2007 of 3.2 mm/year. The Figure 8(GRACE)GIA-correctedtrendfor2003-2007(redline)agreeswiththeJasondata.Thisseemstoverifythatthesatelliterecordisstronglyaffectedby“corrections.”Consequently,thissatellitealtimetrygraphhasalong-termtrend,whichdoesnotrepresentactualinstrumentalmeasurements,butiscreatedbyinferred“corrections.”

mm

TOPEXJason60-day smoothing

GRACE Corrected trend

Univ. of Colorado 2008

Rate = 3.2 (± 0.4) mm/yrSeasonal signals removed

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etry record is significantly altered bynon-technical “corrections” (whatevertheyexactlymaybe).The“corrections”appliedarenotspecifiedbytherespon-siblegroupsatCNES(TheFrenchspaceagency,CentreNationald’EtudesSpati-ales)andNOAA.Various typesofcor-rectionscanbeapplied,butthesehaveto be clearly specified.This is not thecasewiththepresentlycirculatedtrendofsealevelrisefromsatellitealtimetry(see, for example, Aviso 2003 andNOAA 2008). No doubt, we are herefacingaserious“sea-level-gate.”

If the “corrections” applied are notclearlyspecified(anddiscussedandar-gued for), then the product cannot beobjectively evaluated. In this case, itseemstohavemergedintothesectorofdisinformation. What is worse, thisseemstobeintentionallydoneinordertobackup the IPCCsea levelfloodingscenario.

I have previously claimed (Mörner2008)thatthesatellitealtimetryrecord-ingconsistsofthreesteps:(1)satellitein-strumentalreading;(2)“instrumentalre-cord” (after correction from technical

Figure 10SATELLITE ALTIMETRY BACK TILTED TO ITS

UNCORRECTED ORIGINALTheadjustedsatellitealtime-tryofFigure9 ishereback-tiltedtoitsuncorrectedorigi-naltrend.Theoriginalrecordfor the period 1992-2000(yellow field) showed vari-abilityarounda stablehori-zontal zero line (Figures 5and6).TheGRACErawdata(Figure 8) show a slightlyloweringtrendfortheperiod2003-2007(yellowline).To-getherthesetwodatasetsin-dicatethatthemeansealeveltrend has remained stableovertheentireperiod.

�M

SL

(mm

)

TOPEXJason60-day smoothingGRACE raw-data trend

30

20

10

0

–10

–20

–30

–40

1994 1996

1998 2000

2002 2004

2006 2008

Rate � 0.0 mm/yearfor the period 1992-2008

Satellite Altimetryfrom raw-data

HORIZONTAL IN EARLY 2000GRACE RAW DATA

NASA/JPL

Anartist’sillusrationofGRACE,theGravityRecoveryandClimateExperiment,ajointU.S./German satellite mission that provides high-resolution estimates of the Earth’sgravityfieldanditsvariability.TwoidenticalGRACEspacecraftflyabout220kilome-tersapartinapolarorbit,500kilometersabovetheEarth.TheymaptheEarth’sgravityfieldbyaccuratelymeasuringthedistancebetweenthetwosatellites,usingGPSandamicrowaverangingsystem.ThisprovidesinformationaboutthedistributionandflowofmasswithintheEarthanditssurroundings,includingchangescausedbysurfaceanddeepcurrentsintheoceanandexchangesbetweenicesheetsandtheoceans.

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adjustments),aspresentedinFigure10;and(3)“interpretationalrecord(aftertheapplicationof“personalcalibrations”),aspresentedinFigure9.ThisisillustratedinFigure11.

As reported above regarding such adjust-ments,anIPCCmembertoldmethat“Wehadtodoso,otherwiseitwouldnotbeanytrend,”and this seems exactly to be the case. Thismeansthatwearefacingaverygrave,ifnottosay,unethical,“sea-level-gate.”Therefore,theactual“instrumentalrecord”ofsatellitealtim-etry (Figure10)givesa sea level risearound0.0mm/year.Thisfits theobservational factsmuchbetter,andweseemtoreachacoherentpictureofno,or,atmost,aminor(intheorderof0.5mm/yr), sea level riseover the last50years.

ConclusionsObservationalfactsindicatethatsealevelis

bynomeansinarapidlyrisingmode,butratherquitestable.ThisisthecaseinkeysitesliketheMaldives, Bangladesh,Tuvalu,Vanuatu, SaintPaulIsland,Qatar,FrenchGuyana,Venice,andnorthwestEurope.

Tide-gauges tend to exaggerate rising trendsbecauseofsubsidenceandcompaction.Fullsta-bility over the last 30-50 years is indicated insites likeTuvalu, India, theMaldives (andalsotheLaccadivestothenorthoftheMaldives),Ven-ice(aftersubtractingthesubsidencefactor),Cux-haven (aftersubtracting thesubsidence factor),and Korsør (a stable hinge for the last 8,000years).

Satellitealtimetryisshowntorecordvaria-tionsaroundastablezerolevelfortheentireperiod 1992-2010. Trends in the order of 3mm/year represent “interpretational records,”aftertheapplicationof“personalcalibrations,”whichcannotbesubstantiatedbyobservation-alfacts.

Therefore,wecannowreturntoFigure1andclaimthatthe“models”(pinkcurve)provideanillusivepictureofastrongsealevelriseandthatthe“observations”(bluecurve)provideagoodreconstructionoftheactualsealevelchangesoverthelast170years,withstabilityoverthelast40years.

Wecanalsoreturntothespectrumofpres-ent-daysealevelrates(Figure2)andevaluatethevariousvaluesproposed.ThisisillustratedinFigure12.Onlyratesintheorderof0.0mm/yeartomaximum0.7mm/yearseemrealistic.Thisfitswellwiththevaluesproposedforyear2100byINQUA(2000)andMörner(2004),butdifferssignificantlyfromthevaluesproposedbytheIPCC(2001,2007).

Thusweseethat thesealevel threatof theIPCC disappears.The idea of an ongoing sea

Figure 11SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND THE TWO TYPES

OF CORRECTIONS APPLIEDTechnicaladjustmentshavetobeappliedtothesatelliteinstrumentread-ings.Thesecorrectionswereapplied to theoriginalaltimetrygraphofFigure5(Menard2000,Aviso2000)andFigure6.The“instrumentalre-cord”givesasealeveltrendontheorderof0.0mm/year(asseeninFig-ures2,6and10).Byapplyingadditional“personalcalibrations”ofasubjectivenature,graphs(“interpretationalrecords”)wereproduced(forexample,Aviso2003andNOAA2008)thatgiveaninferredsealevelriseintheorderof3mm/year(asseeninFigure9).Therefore,the“interpreta-tionalrecord”representsdisinformation,notatrue“instrumentalrecord”(fromMörner2008).

Figure 12EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY FOR DIFFERENT

PROPOSED SEA LEVEL RATESThespectrumofratevaluesofpresent-daysealevelrisecannowbeesti-matedastovalidity.Onlyvaluesintheorderof0.0mm/year(assuggest-edbyobservationalfacts)toamaximumof0.7mm/yearseemprobable.Valuesrangingfrom1.3to3.4mm/yearareconsideredtobeuntenableoverestimates.Valuesintheorderof1mm/yearrepresentminorcenten-nialrises(andfalls).Thisagreeswithestimatesofapossiblesealevelrisebyyear2100of5±15cm(Mörner2004)and10±10cm(INQUA2000),butdifferssignificantlyfromthevalueproposedbyIPCCof37±19cm(IPCC2007).

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level rise that would flood islands and low-lying coasts,drowningtensofthousandsofpeopleandforcinghundredsofthousands,tomillions,ofpeopletobecomesealevelrefugeesissimplyagraveerror,herebyrevealedasanillusion,hum-bug,andterribledisinformation.This,withoutdoubt,isaseri-ousandshabby“sea-level-gate.”

Thetruefactsaretobefoundinnatureitself;certainlynotatthemodellingtables.Somerecordsareinterpretative.Othersarequiteclearandstraightforward.Ihaveoftenclaimedthat“treesdon’tlie”(forexampleinMörner2007c),referringtothelonelytreeintheMaldives,whichindicatedastablesealevelfor the last 50-60 years (and thereforewaspulleddownby

handbyagroupofAustralian“scientists”andIPCCboy-scouts).AndalsothetreesonthebeachinSundarban,indicatingastrongerosionbutnosealevelriseatall(Mörner2007c,2010a).

BythisIhope,wecanfreetheworldfromtheartificialcrisis, towhich ithasbeen condemned by the IPCC and itsboy-scouts, of an extensive and disas-troussealevelfloodinginthenearfuture.ThiswasthemainthreatintheIPCCsce-nario,andnowitisgone.References _______________________________Aviso, 2000. Observing the oceans by altimetry. www.aviso.cis.cnes.fr

Aviso, 2003. Observing the oceans by altimetry. www.aviso.cis.cnes.fr

Aviso, 2008. Mean Sea Level as seen by altimeters. www.avsio.oceanobs.com

D.A. Burton, 2010. “Analysis of global linear mean sea level (MSL)-trends, including distance-weighted averaging.” www.burtonsys.com/global_msl_trend_analysis.html

S. Byravana and S.C. Rajan, 2010. “The ethical im-plications of sea-level rise due to climate changes.” Ethics and International Affairs, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 239-260.

A. Casenave, K. Dominh, S. Guinehut, E. Berthier, W. Llovel, G. Rammien, M. Ablain, and G. Larnicol, 2009. “Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevalu-ation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo.” Global Planetary Change, Vol. 65, pp. 83-88.

A. Cazenave and W. Llovel, 2010. “Contemporary sea level rise.” Ann. Rev. Marine Sci., Vol. 2, pp. 145-173.

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B.C. Douglas, 1991. “Global sea level rise.” J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 96, pp. 6981-6992.

B.C. Douglas, 1995. “Global sea level changes: determination and interpreta-tion.” Rev. Geophys., Vol. 33, pp. 1425-1432.

Malé,theislandcapitaloftheMaldives,wheremostofthenation’spopulationislocated.Dr.Mörner’sresearchofthesealevelrecordofthepast2,600yearsshowsasignificantsealevelfallinthe1970sandnosignsofanyongoingrise.

AbeachinthePacificislandofTuvalu,wherecontrarytotheIPCCfearscenarios,thesealevelhasbeenstableforthreedecades.

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N. Gratiot, E.J. Anthony, A. Gardel, C. Gaucherel, C. Proisy, and J.T. Wells, 2008. “Significant con-tribution of the 18.6 year tidal cycle to regional coastal changes.” Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, pp. 169-172 (doi: 10.1038/ngeo127).

S.J. Holgate, 2007. “On the decadal rates of sea lev-el change during the twentieth century.” Geo-phys. Res. Letters, Vol. 34, LO1602, doi:10.1029/2006GL028492.

INQUA, 2000. “Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution.” www.pog.su.se, (from 2005: www.pog.nu).

IPCC, 2001. Climate Change. (Cambridge: Cam-bridge Univ. Press).

IPPC, 2007. Climate Change. (Cambridge: Cam-bridge Univ. Press).

G. Menard, 2000. “Satellite-based altimetry reveals physical ocean.” MEDIAS Newsletter, Vol. 12, pp. 9-17.

G.T. Mitchum, 2000. “An improved calibration of sat-ellite altimetric heights using tide gauge sea lev-els with adjustment for land motion.” Marine Ge-odesy, Vol. 23, pp. 145-166.

N.-A. Mörner, 1973. “Eustatic changes during the last 300 years.” Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclim. Pal-aeoecol., Vol. 13, pp. 1-14.

N.-A. Mörner, 1995. “Earth rotation, ocean circula-tion and paleoclimate.” GeoJournal, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 419-430.

N.-A. Mörner, 1996. “Sea Level Variability.” Z. Geo-morphology N.S., Vol. 102, pp. 223-232.

N.-A. Mörner, 2004. “Estimating future sea level changes.” Global Planet. Change, Vol. 40, pp. 49-54.

N.-A. Mörner, 2005. “Sea level changes and crustal movements with special aspects on the Mediter-ranean.” Z. Geomorph. N.F., Suppl. Vol. 137, pp. 91-102.

N.-A. Mörner, 2007a. “The Sun rules climate. There’s no danger of global sea level rise.” 21st Century, Fall 2007, pp. 31-34.

N.-A. Mörner, 2007b. “Sea Level Changes and Tsu-namis. Environmental Stress and Migration over the Seas.” Internationales Asienforum, Vol. 38, pp. 353-374.

N.-A. Mörner, 2007c. “The Greatest Lie Ever Told.” P&G-print (2nd edition 2009, 3rd edition 2010.

N.-A. Mörner, 2008. “Comments.” Global Planet. Change, Vol. 62, pp. 219-220.

N.-A. Mörner, 2009. “Open letter to the President of the Maldives.” New Concepts in Global Tecton-ics Newsletter, No. 53, pp. 80-83.

N.-A. Mörner, 2010a. “Sea level changes in Bangla-desh. New observational facts.” Energy and En-vironment, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 249-263.

N.-A. Mörner, 2010b. “Some problems in the re-construction of mean sea level and its changes with time.” Quaternary International, Vol. 221, pp. 3-8.

G. Murphy, 2007. “Claim that sea level is rising is a total fraud (interview).” 21st Century, Fall 2007, pp. 33-37.

R.J. Nicholls and A. Casenave, 2010. “Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones.” Science, Vol. 328, pp. 1517-1520.

NOAA, 2008. “The NOAA satellite altimetry pro-gram: Closing the sea level rise budget with al-rimetry, Argos and Grace.” www.oco.noaa.gov .

W.R. Peltier, 1998. “Postglacial variations in the lev-el of the sea: implications for climate dynamics and solid-earth geophysics.” Rev. Geophysics, Vol. 36, pp. 603-689.