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12 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology
In an interview and paper published in21st Centuryin2007,1Ihaveshownthatglobalsealevelisnotinanalarmingris-
ingmode,whichisthemainthreatin the International Panel onCli-mateChangescenario.Ifsealevelisnotrisingatahighrate,thereisnoseriousthreatandnorealprob-lem.Insubsequentpapers,Icon-tinuedtopresentnewdataonsealevel stability. In Mörner 2007b,our field observational databasefromtheMaldive Islandswasde-scribed in detail.Anew study inBangladeshwaspublishedin2010(Mörner2010a).Newdatawith respect to general sea levelchangeswerepublished inanotherpaper (2010b).Also,my
1. The interview and article appear in the Fall 2007 21st Century. The interview is available online at www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles%202007/MornerInterview.pdf
THE GREAT SEA-LEVEL HUMBUG
There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise!
byNils-AxelMörner
Oneoftheapproximately1,190beautifulcoralislandsthatcomprisethenationoftheMaldives.AsMörnershows,theMal-divesarenotindangerofinundation.
shortsealevelbooklettitled“TheGreatestLieEverTold”(Mörner2007c)wasupdatedinneweditionsin2009and2010.
HereIwillinvestigatetheproposedratesofsealevelchangesbyIPCCandothers.
Figure1illustratesthedifferencesbetweentheIPCCmodelsandtheobservationalfacts.After1965,thetwocurvesstarttodivergesignificantly(theareamarkedwithaquestionmark).Thispaperwillhighlightthedifferencesandseekthesolutionofwhatdatatotrustandwhattodiscard.
Figure2showsthespectrumofpresent-daysealevelesti-mates.Theproposedratesofsealevelriserangefrom0.0to3.2mm per year. Obviously, alltheseratescannotbecorrect. Iwill try to straighten out thequestionmarkinFigure1byun-dertakingacriticalexaminationoftheratesgiveninFigure2.
Observational FactsClearobservationalmeasure-
ments in thefield indicate thatsealevelisnotrisingintheMal-
Renowned oceanographic expert Nils-Axel Mörner has studied sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 45 years. Recently retired as director of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, Mörner is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Chang-es and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Now he has his own company on Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics in Sweden, and can be reached at [email protected].
While the IPCC and its boy scouts present wilder and wilder sea level predictions for the near
future, the real observational facts demonstrate that sea level has remained virtually stable for
the last 40-50 years.
21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 13
dives, Bangladesh, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and French Guyana(Mörner,2007a,2007b,2007c,2010a,2010b).Alltheseplac-esarekeysitesinthesealeveldebate,wheretheIPCCanditsideologicalassociateshavepredictedterriblefloodingscenar-ios.TherealityistotallydifferentfromwhattheIPCCclaims,however, as highlighted inmy interviewand article in21st Century.
The IPCC group and the Presidents of theMaldivesandTuvalucontinuetoclaimthatthefloodingisinprogress,andwillsoonfloodtheislandsandwipethoseislandnationsoff thesurfaceoftheglobe(orratherocean).Alreadyherewearefacingabehaviorthatwellmightbetermeda“sea-level-gate.”InanopenlettertothePresidentoftheMaldives(Mörner2009),Iaddressedthedivergencebetweenhisclaimand our field observations. No reply hascome.
Bangladeshisanationcursedbydisasters—heavy precipitation in the Himalayas andcoastal cyclones. As if this were not badenough,ithasbeenclaimedthatsealevelisinrapidlyrisingmode.Thisclaimhasbeentotal-lydiscreditedbymystudy in theSundarbanarea,wherethefactsarethat theseahasre-mainedstableforthelast40-50years(Mörner2010a).
Theerroneously inferredsea level risehasbeenusedtocreatewildscenarioswhereitisclaimedthattenstohundredsofthousandsofpeoplemaybedrownedand“millionsofindi-viduals will be displaced from their homesoverthecourseofthecenturyduetosea-levelrise”(ByravanaandRaja2010).Thisis,indeed,
aterriblefalsificationoftheactualsituation.Weareundoubt-edlyfacinga“sea-level-gate.”Thejournalthatpublishedthisfalseclaim,Ethics and International Affairs,refusestoprintacomment“thatfocusesonempiricaldata.”Withsurprise,wemustask:Whatisthemeaningofaddressingmoralconcern,iftheentireempiricalbaseiswrong?
InTuvalu,thePresidentcontinuestoclaimthattheyareinthe
Figure 2RATES OF SEA LEVEL CHANGES (mm/year)
Thespectrumofproposedratesofpresent-daysealevelchangesrangesfrom0.0mm/year,accordingtoobservationalfactsfromanumberofkeysitesallovertheworld,to3.2mm/year,accordingtocalibratedsatellitealtimetry.
Spectrum of estimates of present-day sea level rates
mm
/yea
r
Figure 1SEA LEVEL CHANGES (1840-2010)
Thepinkcurve,“Models,”representstheIPCC’scombinationofselectedtide-gaugerecordsandcorrectedsatellitealtimetrydata.Thebluecurve,“Observations,”representstheobservedeustaticsealevelchangesinthefieldaccordingtoMörner(1973)upto1960and(inthispaper),thereaf-ter.After1965,thetwocurvesstarttodiverge,presentingtwototallydif-ferentviews(separatedbytheareawiththequestionmark),whereonlyoneviewcanbetenable.
Observations
Models
processofbeingflooded.Yet,thetide-gaugedatapro-vide clear indication of a stability over the last 30years(Mörner2007a,2007c,2010b;Murphy2007).InVanuatu,thetide-gaugeindicatesastablesealeveloverthelast14years(Mörner2007c).
From the coasts of French Guyana and Surinamthere is a very excellent sea level record coveringmultiple18.6-yeartidalcycles(Gratiotetal.2008).Itexhibitsvariationsaroundastablezeroleveloverthelast50years(Mörner2010b).Forthesamearea,sat-ellitealtimetrygivesasealevelriseof3.0mm/year.Thiscastscleardoubtonthesatellitealtimetryvalue,asdiscussedfurtherbelow.
ThesealevelrecordfromVenicemaybeusedasatestareaforglobaleustasy.2Subtractingthesubsid-encefactor,itshowsnoriseofeustaticorigin,noac-celerationwhatsoeverinthelastdecades;instead,itshows a sea level lowering around the year 1970(Mörner2007a,2007c).
ThenorthwestEuropeancoastsareinterestingbe-
2. Eustacy or eustatic change (as opposed to changes in land lev-el) refers to changes in the ocean level (earlier thought to be global, but nowadays realized also to be regional, because of horizontal redistribution of water-masses).
14 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology
causeherewehavesitesthatareexperi-encingbothupliftandsubsidence. Thetide-gaugeatKorsørintheGreatBelt(thestraitbetweenthemainDanishislandsofZealandandFunen),forexample,islo-cated at the hinge between uplift andsubsidenceforthelast8,000years.Thistide-gaugeshowsnosealevelriseinthelast50-60years.
Thetide-gaugeinAmsterdam,installedin1682,istheoldestintheworld.Super-imposingthissubsidencerecordontheuplift record from the Stockholm tide-gauge,Iwasabletoisolateaeustaticfac-tor for the time period 1680 to about1970 (Mörner 1973).This shows a risefrom1830-1840upto1930-1940of11cm. In that100-yearperiod, theEarth’srate of rotation decelerated at a valuewhichcorrespondstoa10-cmsealevelrise (see, for example, Mörner 1996).Consequently, there is a very good fitbetween sea level rise and rotationaldeceleration,whichseemstoprovideameasureofaglobalsealevelfactor(thebluelinewithrespecttotheredlineinFigure3).
Cuxhaven,ontheGermancoast,hasatide-gaugedatingbackto1843,inanareathatrepresentsthesubsidingsegmentoftheNorthSeacoasts.Figure3showstheannualmeanvaluesfor160years,withalong-termtrendpolynomialfittedtoit(Heroldun-publ.).Thiscurve(blue)givesaslightlysinusoidalrisingtrendthatrepresentsthemeanrelativesealevelchangesinthearea.
AddingtothistheeustaticcomponentofthenorthwesternEuro-peanregion(Mörner1973),wegetpartlythelocalrateofsubsid-ence(redcurve),andpartlytheeustaticcomponent,extendeduptothepresentanddouble-checkedforthepre-1970section(thedifferencebetweentheblueandtheredcurves).
The regional eustatic sea level change decelerates after1930-1940,becomesflataround1950-1970,andfallsfrom1970uptothepresent.Thisprovidesfirmevidencethatsealevelisnotatallinarapidlyrisingmodetoday;ratherthereis
Paulo Filgueiras/U.N. Photo
Theglobalwarmingmaniahascapturedmanyleadersofsmallislandnations.Here,U.N.Secretary-GeneralBanKi-moon(thirdfromleft)addressesabreakfastmeetingwithrepresentativesofsmallislandstates,inCancun,Mexico,onthesidelinesoftheU.N.ConferenceonClimateChange.
Figure 3CUXHAVEN TIDE-GAUGE RECORD
Thegrayareagivestheactualtide-gaugereadingfortheNorthSeaGermanportofCuxhavenfor1843-2003—thatis,for160years.Apolynomialwasfit-ted(byJörnHerold)tothistide-gaugerecord.AddingtheeustaticcomponentofMörner(1973)fortheperiod1840-1970,givesastraightlineofsubsidence(red)witharateof1.4mm/year.Theeustaticcomponent(thedifferencebe-tweentheblueandredcurves)cannowbeextendedupto2003,anditshowsastop in theriseataround1960, followedbyacontinual loweringup to2003;thatis,atrendtotallydifferentfromthatproposedbytheIPCCmodelsbutinfullagreementwiththeobservationalfactsinFigure1.
Thekugelbake,anoldwoodenlighthouseat the North Sea port of Cuxhaven.Thiscoastalareaisanareaofsubsidence.
21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 15
theoppositetrend:aslowfallingmode.Thesedataarecombinedinthecurveof“observations”in
Figure1.
Tide-gauge RecordsTide-gaugeswereinstalledatharborconstructionstomea-
surethechangesintidallevelandlong-termsealevelchanges.TheAmsterdamtide-gaugeistheoldest,installedin1682;theStockholm tide-gauge is the second oldest, installed in1724/1774);and theLiverpool tide-gauge is the thirdoldest,installed in1768.Most tide-gaugesare installedonunstableharborconstructionsorlandingpiers.Therefore,tide-gaugere-cordsareboundtoexaggeratesealevelrise.TheNationalOce-anicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)tide-gaugedata-baseincludes159stations(Figure4).
The IPCCauthors take the liberty to selectwhat they call“representative”recordsfortheirreconstructionofthecenten-
nialsealeveltrend.This,of course, implies thattheir personal view—thatis,theIPCCscenariolaid down from the be-ginningof theproject—is imposed in theselec-tionandidentificationoftheir“representative”re-cords.We start to smellanother“sea-level-gate.”
With this selectionmethodology, Douglas(1991) chose 25 tide-gaugesandgotarateofsealevelriseof1.8mm/year;Churchetal.(2006)selected 6 tide-gaugesandgotarateof1.4mm/year;andHolgate(2007)selected 9 tide-gaugesand got a rate of 1.45
Figure 4SPECTRUM OF RATES OF NOAA’s 159 TIDE GAUGE STATIONS
The values of NOAA’s159 tide gauge stationsindicate that they rangefrom uplifted areas tosubsiding areas (greenareas).Iftheupliftingandsubsidingsites(greenar-eas) are excluded, weareleftwithanumberofsites(redarea)wheretherise in sea level rangesbetween 0.0 and 2.0mm/year.Thisisconsid-erably below the rategivenbyIPCC(pinkarea)andsatellitealtimetry(asdiscussedbelow).
mm
/yea
r
Number of tide-gauge stations
Subsidence
IPCC 2007 estimate
Uplift
eseas.org
Atide-gaugeonan industrialpier in theAdriatic. It isgroundedtothebottomwithpiles.
Vyron Lymberopoulos
Amsterdamhastheoldestinstalledtide-gaugeintheworld,datingbackto1682.Whitemarblestones(below)wereinsertedintothelocksbuiltaftersevereflooding(above).
Vyron Lymberopoulos
16 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology
mm/year(Figure2).Themeanofallthe159NOAAsitesgivesarateof0.5mm/yearto0.6mm/year(Burton2010).Abet-ter approach, however, is to excludethose sites that represent uplifted andsubsidedareas(Figure4).Thisleaves68sitesofreasonablestability(stillwiththepossibilityofanexaggerationoftherateof change, as discussed above). Thesesitesgiveapresentrateofsealevelriseintheorderof1.0(±1.0)mm/year.Thisisfarbelowtheratesgivenbysatelliteal-timetry, and the smell of a “sea-level-gate”getsstronger.
Satellite AltimetrySatellitealtimetryisawonderfulnew
techniquethatoffersthereconstructionofsealevelchangesallovertheoceansurface.Thisisvital,assealevelnotonlychangesverticallybutalsohorizontally.The horizontal redistribution of watermasseswasfirstobservedforthecenten-nialtodecadalLateHolocenesealevelchanges(see,forexample,Mörner1995and1996) and is clearly shown in thesatelliterecordfrom1992-2010(see,forexample,NichollsandCasenave2010;Casenave and Llovel 2010)). Greatproblems remain with respect to thezerolevelchosenandtothelong-termtrend, however (Mörner 2004, 2007c,2008).
The Topex/Poseidon and later Jasonmissions recorded the variations of theoceansurfacewithhighresolution.Hav-ingappliedalltechnicalcorrectionneed-ed,Menard(2000andalsoAviso2000)presentedafirstsealevelgraphrangingfrom1992to2000(Figure5).
TheFigure5trendof1.0mm/yearisestablishedbythelineartrendapproach,ignoringthefactthatthebighighincy-cles175-200representsanENSO-event.(ENSOistheElNiño/LaNiña-SouthernOscillation, a quasi-periodic climate pattern that occursacrossthetropicalPacificOceaneveryfewyears.)There-fore,amuchmorerealisticapproachistotreatthatENSO-sig-nalasaseparateevent,superimposedonthelong-termtrend,asshowninFigure6(Mörner2004).Figure6showsavariabil-ity(of±10mm)aroundastablezerolevel(blueline)andastrongENSO-event(yellowlines)in1997.Thetrendthereafterislessclear(graylines).Thisgraphprovidesnoindicationofanyriseoverthetime-periodcovered(Mörner2004,2007a,2007c).
Whenthesatellitealtimetrygrouprealizedthatthe1997risewasanENSOsignal,andtheyextendedthetrendupto2003,theyseemedtohavefacedaproblem:Therewasnosealevelrisevisible,andthereforea“reinterpretation”neededtobeun-
dertaken. (Thiswasorallyconfirmedat theGlobalWarmingmeetingheldbytheRussianAcademyofScienceinMoscowin2005,whichIattended).Exactlywhatwasdoneremainsun-clear,asthesatellitealtimetrygroupsdonotspecifytheaddi-tional“corrections”theynowinfer.
In2003,thesatellitealtimetryrecord(Aviso2003)suddenlytook a new tilt—away from the quite horizontal record of1992-2000,seeninFigures5and6—of2.3(±0.1)mm/year(Figure7).
Fromwheredoesthenewtiltcome?WhatliesflatinFigure5of 2000 is now tiltedupward in Figure7of 2003 (Aviso2000,2003).Obviously,somesortof“correction”hasbeenmade,withoutspecifyingthisinawaythatallowsevaluation(seeMörner2007c,2008).Inmostgraphsrepresentingthe
Figure 5SEA LEVEL CHANGES AS OBSERVED BY TOPEX/POSEIDON IN 2000
ThesearetheannualmeansealevelchangesfromTOPEX/POSEIDONsatelliteobservations,aftertechnical“corrections”wereapplied(fromMenard2000).Aslow,long-termrisingtrendof1.0mm/yearwasidentified,butthislinearap-proachignorestheENSOeventincycles175-200.
cm
Cycles 11 (Oct. 1992) to 276 (April 2000)
Figure 6SEA LEVEL CHANGES FROM FIGURE 5,
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ENSO PEAKThesealevelchangesasrecordedinFigure5arepresentedherewithamorerealistictrendanalysisthattreatsthe1997ENSOpeak(yellow)asaseparateeventsuperimposedonthelong-termtrend.Thisshowsastabilityoverthefirst5years(blue)andpossiblyoverthewholetimeperiodcovered(fromMörner2004,2007c).
Sea level variations in mm
21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 17
satellite altimetry sea level record (on the Internet and injournalpapers), it isnotevennoted that thegraphsdonotpresenttrendsasreadbythesatellites,buttrendsafter“cor-rections.”
Originally,itseemedthatthisextra,unspecified“correction”referredtotheglobalisostatic3adjustment(GIA)givenas2.4mm/year(see,forexample,Peltier1998)or1.8mm/year(IPCC2001).The zero isobase of GIA according to Peltier (1998)passedthroughHongKong,whereonetide-gaugegivesarela-tivesealevelriseof2.3mm/year.Thisisexactlythevalueap-pearinginFigure7.Thistide-gaugerecordiscontradictedbythe fourother recordsexisting inHongKong,andobviouslyrepresentsasitespecificsubsidence,afactwellknowntolocalgeologists.
Nevertheless,anewcalibrationfactorhasbeenintroducedintheFigure7graph.AttheMoscowglobalwarmingmeetingin2005,inanswertomycriticismsaboutthis“correction,”oneofthepersonsintheBritishIPCCdelegationsaid,“Wehadtodoso,otherwisetherewouldnotbeanytrend.”TothisIreplied:“Didyouhearwhatyouweresaying?ThisisjustwhatIamac-cusingyouofdoing.”Therefore,inmy2007booklet(Mörner2007c),theFigure7graphwastiltedbacktoitsoriginalposi-tion(Figure5).
The calibrations applied to the satellite altimetry readingswerediscussedinMitchum(2000—cf.CasenaveandNerem2004; Leuliette and Scharroo 2010).The tide-gauge recordsplayacentralroleinthis,implyingsomesortofcircularreason-inginarrivingatthecalibrations.Otherimportantfactorsaretheglobalisostaticadjustment(GIA)andverticalmovementsofthetide-gaugesites.
Mitchum(2000)statesthatinpart,“Weadoptedtherategiv-enbyDouglas(1991,1995)of1.8±0.1mm/yr,”andinpartthat“the tide-gaugeswereassumed tobevertically stable.”Boththeseassumptionsarewrong.The1.8mm/yrrateisnotwelles-tablished,butrathertheopposite(seeFigure2).Thetide-gaugerecords,especiallythoseselected,arefarfromverticallystable,but rather the opposite (this applies for the 6 sites used byChurchetal.aswellasthe25sitesusedbyDouglas).Mitchum(2000) provided the following relations (as expressed in theboxedequationbelow):
3. Isostatic refers to the balance of geological masses and the tendency towards equilibrium.
Eachofthethreeboxes(A,B,andC)includesmultiplevari-ables thatneedpainstakingandskillfulhandling,whichcer-tainlyhasnotbeendonebythegroupsdealingwiththesatellitealtimetryrecordsandtheIPCCcommunity.
Toestablishalocaltide-gaugetrend(boxA),isfarfromsim-pleandstraightforward.Cyclictrends,eventsignals,andseg-mentsmustbeidentifiedandsubtracted.Numerousdifferentvariablesaffectandinterferewiththelong-terntrend.Veryof-ten,thereisnolong-termtrend,justsegmentsthatneedindi-vidualtreatment(asinthecaseoftheBombaytide-gaugere-cord, discussed by Mörner, 2010a). ENSO-events (likeSuper-ENSOevents)mustbesubtracted,asillustratedinFig-ure 6 and shown for theTuvalu record by Mörner (2007c,2010b).
Theproposed“globalsealevelfactor”(boxB)isneverclearand trustworthy; rather, it isamatterofpersonalopinion,asseeninFigure2.Therateof1.8mm/yrissurelyanoverestimatethatisstronglyaffectedbysubsidenceatthetide-gaugesselect-ed(Figure2).Inmyopinion,abettervaluewouldbe0.0mm/yr(orjustalittleabovethis).
Thelocallandmotionatthetide-gaugesites(boxC)isan-otherintricateissuethatcallsforgeologicalunderstandingofthespecificsiteinquestion.Localsedimentarygroundchanges(suchascompaction,waterwithdrawal,andsoon)isaprimefactortoassess(Mörner2004,2010b).Thesechangescannotberecordedbysatellitemeasurements,butonlybysite-specificknowledge.Manytide-gaugesareinstalledonharborconstruc-
Figure 7SEA LEVEL CHANGES AFTER
CALIBRATION IN 2003ThesatellitealtimetryrecordisshownforTOPEX/POSEIDON (black) and Jason(red).Aspresentedin2003(Aviso2003),therecordsuddenlyhasanewtrendrep-resenting an inferred rate of 2.3 (±0.1)mm/year sea level rise.Thismeans thattheoriginalrecordspresentedinFigures5and6nowhavebeentiltedbyafactorof2.3mm/year.Wemustnowask:Fromwheredoesthistiltcome?
cm
Cycle numbers 11 (1992) to 360 (2003)
CLocalLandMotion
A LocalTide-GaugeTrend =
BGlobalSeaLevelTrend –
18 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology
tionsandlandingpiersthatarefarfromstable. Crustal movements and seis-motectonicsareotherfactors.InthecaseoftheharborintheMaldivescapitalofMalé,thisislandissoheavilyoverloadedbybuildingthattheharborconstructionsfracture,andaredislocatedinwaysthatinvalidate any trustworthy tide-gaugereadingthere.
Onethingisforsure:satellitealtimetryisnotprovidingwhatisoftenclaimed,an“independent measure of sea levelchanges”asopposedtothatoftide-gaug-es and global isostatic adjustment. In-stead,itisarecorddeeplydependentonthosevariables.
With the space gravimetry observa-tionsfromGRACEithasbecomepossi-bletorecordchangesintheoceanwatermass (Casenaveetal.2009),whichap-proximate the mean global sea levelchanges(Figure8).
Theconceptoftheglobalisostaticad-justment, orGIA, is amodel, inwhichsomedataareinsupport(seeforexam-ple,Peltier1998)andotherdataare indirectcontradiction(forexample,Mörn-er2005).
GIAcorrectionshavebeenappliedtotide-gauges,sealevelrecords,satellitealtime-try,andnowtooceanmasschanges.ItseemsthatwithoutthoseGIAcorrections,thereislit-tleornoroomleftforaglobalsealevelrise.Correcting tide-gauges for GIA or regionalcrustal movement is not the correct way oftreating these typesof records. Instead, eachsite must be evaluated from its own criteriawithrespecttostability,wind,waves,sedimen-tation,compaction,loading,andtectonics.AblindGIAmodelcorrectionmayprovidequitewrong results; it is a dangerous shortcut ap-pliedby thosepersonswhoarenotsea levelspecialistsbytraining,andhencewithouttheskilltoundertakecarefulsite-specificstabilityanalysesthemselves.
Figure9showsthesatellitealtimetryrecordsas presented by NOAA (2008), which give ariseof3.2(±0.4)mm/year.
InFigure10,thesatellitealtimetryrecordofFigure9isback-tiltedtofittheoriginaltrendinFigures5and6fortheperiod1992-2000(yel-lowfields)andtherawdataofGRACEinFigure8,fortheperiod2003-2007(yellowline).Thisgives an uncorrected satellite altimetry graphshowingnosignsofanysealevelrise.Theorig-inalrecordfortheperiod1992-2000isrestored(cf.Figures5and6)andtheGRACErawdatafittherecordperfectlywell.
ThisimpliesthattheFigure9satellitealtim-
Figure 8OCEAN MASS CHANGES FROM GRACE SATELLITE DATA
Thespacegravimetry readings from theGRACEsatellites recordchanges inoceanmasswhichapproximatemeanglobalsealevelchanges(fromCasenaveetal.2009).Therawdatashowaslightloweringby–0.12(±0.06)mm/year(bluedots).Inferringaglobalisostaticadjustment(GIA)correction,whichistobequestioned,Casenaveetal.(2009)establishedacorrectedrateof1.9(±0.9)mm/year(pinkdots).Thedifferenceissignificant.Thequestioniswhetherornotthis“correction”isjustifiable.
Ocean Mass Changes (GRACE)� Sea Level Changes
mm
Raw data
GIA correcteddata
Figure 9SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AS GIVEN BY NOAA
TheTOPEX-Jasonsatellitedataprovidearecordsuggestingameansealevel rise over the period 1993-2007 of 3.2 mm/year. The Figure 8(GRACE)GIA-correctedtrendfor2003-2007(redline)agreeswiththeJasondata.Thisseemstoverifythatthesatelliterecordisstronglyaffectedby“corrections.”Consequently,thissatellitealtimetrygraphhasalong-termtrend,whichdoesnotrepresentactualinstrumentalmeasurements,butiscreatedbyinferred“corrections.”
mm
TOPEXJason60-day smoothing
GRACE Corrected trend
Univ. of Colorado 2008
Rate = 3.2 (± 0.4) mm/yrSeasonal signals removed
21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 19
etry record is significantly altered bynon-technical “corrections” (whatevertheyexactlymaybe).The“corrections”appliedarenotspecifiedbytherespon-siblegroupsatCNES(TheFrenchspaceagency,CentreNationald’EtudesSpati-ales)andNOAA.Various typesofcor-rectionscanbeapplied,butthesehaveto be clearly specified.This is not thecasewiththepresentlycirculatedtrendofsealevelrisefromsatellitealtimetry(see, for example, Aviso 2003 andNOAA 2008). No doubt, we are herefacingaserious“sea-level-gate.”
If the “corrections” applied are notclearlyspecified(anddiscussedandar-gued for), then the product cannot beobjectively evaluated. In this case, itseemstohavemergedintothesectorofdisinformation. What is worse, thisseemstobeintentionallydoneinordertobackup the IPCCsea levelfloodingscenario.
I have previously claimed (Mörner2008)thatthesatellitealtimetryrecord-ingconsistsofthreesteps:(1)satellitein-strumentalreading;(2)“instrumentalre-cord” (after correction from technical
Figure 10SATELLITE ALTIMETRY BACK TILTED TO ITS
UNCORRECTED ORIGINALTheadjustedsatellitealtime-tryofFigure9 ishereback-tiltedtoitsuncorrectedorigi-naltrend.Theoriginalrecordfor the period 1992-2000(yellow field) showed vari-abilityarounda stablehori-zontal zero line (Figures 5and6).TheGRACErawdata(Figure 8) show a slightlyloweringtrendfortheperiod2003-2007(yellowline).To-getherthesetwodatasetsin-dicatethatthemeansealeveltrend has remained stableovertheentireperiod.
�M
SL
(mm
)
TOPEXJason60-day smoothingGRACE raw-data trend
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
–30
–40
1994 1996
1998 2000
2002 2004
2006 2008
Rate � 0.0 mm/yearfor the period 1992-2008
Satellite Altimetryfrom raw-data
HORIZONTAL IN EARLY 2000GRACE RAW DATA
NASA/JPL
Anartist’sillusrationofGRACE,theGravityRecoveryandClimateExperiment,ajointU.S./German satellite mission that provides high-resolution estimates of the Earth’sgravityfieldanditsvariability.TwoidenticalGRACEspacecraftflyabout220kilome-tersapartinapolarorbit,500kilometersabovetheEarth.TheymaptheEarth’sgravityfieldbyaccuratelymeasuringthedistancebetweenthetwosatellites,usingGPSandamicrowaverangingsystem.ThisprovidesinformationaboutthedistributionandflowofmasswithintheEarthanditssurroundings,includingchangescausedbysurfaceanddeepcurrentsintheoceanandexchangesbetweenicesheetsandtheoceans.
20 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology
adjustments),aspresentedinFigure10;and(3)“interpretationalrecord(aftertheapplicationof“personalcalibrations”),aspresentedinFigure9.ThisisillustratedinFigure11.
As reported above regarding such adjust-ments,anIPCCmembertoldmethat“Wehadtodoso,otherwiseitwouldnotbeanytrend,”and this seems exactly to be the case. Thismeansthatwearefacingaverygrave,ifnottosay,unethical,“sea-level-gate.”Therefore,theactual“instrumentalrecord”ofsatellitealtim-etry (Figure10)givesa sea level risearound0.0mm/year.Thisfits theobservational factsmuchbetter,andweseemtoreachacoherentpictureofno,or,atmost,aminor(intheorderof0.5mm/yr), sea level riseover the last50years.
ConclusionsObservationalfactsindicatethatsealevelis
bynomeansinarapidlyrisingmode,butratherquitestable.ThisisthecaseinkeysitesliketheMaldives, Bangladesh,Tuvalu,Vanuatu, SaintPaulIsland,Qatar,FrenchGuyana,Venice,andnorthwestEurope.
Tide-gauges tend to exaggerate rising trendsbecauseofsubsidenceandcompaction.Fullsta-bility over the last 30-50 years is indicated insites likeTuvalu, India, theMaldives (andalsotheLaccadivestothenorthoftheMaldives),Ven-ice(aftersubtractingthesubsidencefactor),Cux-haven (aftersubtracting thesubsidence factor),and Korsør (a stable hinge for the last 8,000years).
Satellitealtimetryisshowntorecordvaria-tionsaroundastablezerolevelfortheentireperiod 1992-2010. Trends in the order of 3mm/year represent “interpretational records,”aftertheapplicationof“personalcalibrations,”whichcannotbesubstantiatedbyobservation-alfacts.
Therefore,wecannowreturntoFigure1andclaimthatthe“models”(pinkcurve)provideanillusivepictureofastrongsealevelriseandthatthe“observations”(bluecurve)provideagoodreconstructionoftheactualsealevelchangesoverthelast170years,withstabilityoverthelast40years.
Wecanalsoreturntothespectrumofpres-ent-daysealevelrates(Figure2)andevaluatethevariousvaluesproposed.ThisisillustratedinFigure12.Onlyratesintheorderof0.0mm/yeartomaximum0.7mm/yearseemrealistic.Thisfitswellwiththevaluesproposedforyear2100byINQUA(2000)andMörner(2004),butdifferssignificantlyfromthevaluesproposedbytheIPCC(2001,2007).
Thusweseethat thesealevel threatof theIPCC disappears.The idea of an ongoing sea
Figure 11SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND THE TWO TYPES
OF CORRECTIONS APPLIEDTechnicaladjustmentshavetobeappliedtothesatelliteinstrumentread-ings.Thesecorrectionswereapplied to theoriginalaltimetrygraphofFigure5(Menard2000,Aviso2000)andFigure6.The“instrumentalre-cord”givesasealeveltrendontheorderof0.0mm/year(asseeninFig-ures2,6and10).Byapplyingadditional“personalcalibrations”ofasubjectivenature,graphs(“interpretationalrecords”)wereproduced(forexample,Aviso2003andNOAA2008)thatgiveaninferredsealevelriseintheorderof3mm/year(asseeninFigure9).Therefore,the“interpreta-tionalrecord”representsdisinformation,notatrue“instrumentalrecord”(fromMörner2008).
Figure 12EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY FOR DIFFERENT
PROPOSED SEA LEVEL RATESThespectrumofratevaluesofpresent-daysealevelrisecannowbeesti-matedastovalidity.Onlyvaluesintheorderof0.0mm/year(assuggest-edbyobservationalfacts)toamaximumof0.7mm/yearseemprobable.Valuesrangingfrom1.3to3.4mm/yearareconsideredtobeuntenableoverestimates.Valuesintheorderof1mm/yearrepresentminorcenten-nialrises(andfalls).Thisagreeswithestimatesofapossiblesealevelrisebyyear2100of5±15cm(Mörner2004)and10±10cm(INQUA2000),butdifferssignificantlyfromthevalueproposedbyIPCCof37±19cm(IPCC2007).
21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 21
level rise that would flood islands and low-lying coasts,drowningtensofthousandsofpeopleandforcinghundredsofthousands,tomillions,ofpeopletobecomesealevelrefugeesissimplyagraveerror,herebyrevealedasanillusion,hum-bug,andterribledisinformation.This,withoutdoubt,isaseri-ousandshabby“sea-level-gate.”
Thetruefactsaretobefoundinnatureitself;certainlynotatthemodellingtables.Somerecordsareinterpretative.Othersarequiteclearandstraightforward.Ihaveoftenclaimedthat“treesdon’tlie”(forexampleinMörner2007c),referringtothelonelytreeintheMaldives,whichindicatedastablesealevelfor the last 50-60 years (and thereforewaspulleddownby
handbyagroupofAustralian“scientists”andIPCCboy-scouts).AndalsothetreesonthebeachinSundarban,indicatingastrongerosionbutnosealevelriseatall(Mörner2007c,2010a).
BythisIhope,wecanfreetheworldfromtheartificialcrisis, towhich ithasbeen condemned by the IPCC and itsboy-scouts, of an extensive and disas-troussealevelfloodinginthenearfuture.ThiswasthemainthreatintheIPCCsce-nario,andnowitisgone.References _______________________________Aviso, 2000. Observing the oceans by altimetry. www.aviso.cis.cnes.fr
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AbeachinthePacificislandofTuvalu,wherecontrarytotheIPCCfearscenarios,thesealevelhasbeenstableforthreedecades.
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