The Hazy Road Ahead

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The Hazy Road Ahead

I am not a scientist, but an activist, so I am going to explore the issues we face in

laymans language. The perspective will be to try to summarize what the problem is from

the point of view of understanding its genesis, its context and its trajectory today. This isnecessary because one needs a map, when there is so much information and

disinformation jumbled together, and the consequences or risks so significant. And this

map must try to take into account forces that are shaping the present trajectory. As thevery term Global Warming suggests, it is best to look at this at a global level because we

live in a very interlinked world. With that backdrop, we will try to explore why the road

ahead is so murky and what might lie ahead based on the choices we make.

Let us start with what is known and clear.

Global Warming A brief summary

The earth is warmer than it has been for several centuries and is now on average about

0.76 degrees C warmer on both land and sea relative to the period 1860-1900. There is

also a very large consensus now, as to what has caused this to occur, i.e. increasing

concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere caused by human activityover the last two centuries, as the period of denial is fortunately coming to an end.

Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans, there is a near certainty that at least a

further increase of about 0.5-8 degrees is already baked in. These average

temperatures may seem small, but historical records show that a difference of only about

6 degrees in the average temperature separates us from the ice ages. Not only are the

effects of emissions of the past few years yet to be felt, emission levels have beenintensifying in recent years. Worldwide emissions from fossil fuels was 21.39 billion

tonnes (BT) in 1990 (the year usually regarded as the benchmark to measure cuts), was

22.97 BT in 1997 when the Kyoto meeting happened, 26.40 BT over 2000-2005, andreached 28.19 BT in 2005, when the Kyoto Protocol was finally ratified. There is also

increasing concern, that many feedbacks in the climate system will flip their character ina way, which might result in a runaway rise in GHG and consequently cause atemperature escalation, which would not be preventable, before a new system state or

pattern is reached.

That this evolving situation may pose tremendous risk to life as we know it on this planet

is slowly getting better understood. While it is difficult to correlate any specific weather

event with any certainty to this warming of the Earth, there is increasing evidence of

systemic changes that are underway. Some of the notable ones include glacial retreat,shrinking of the Arctic, and worldwide sea level rise. The consequences of this climate

change is already being felt in species extinctions, initial submergence of coastal lands,

disease vectors, amount and pattern of precipitation, and frequency and intensity ofextreme weather events. But what has been experienced may only be a pale shadow of

what may follow, given that coastal densities are high globally, and the importance of

water for large agriculture linked population in developing countries, as well as foressential daily use. We all also know from recent memory, the kind of havoc that extreme

weather events can cause.

Arun Bidani, Delhi Platform11-43098327, [email protected]

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But the temperature of the Earth and its consequences are just a reflection of its health,

as it is for human beings. Perhaps we have focused on it, and on the emissions, as they

are comparatively easier to measure. The larger question is how we got into thisquagmire. And that inevitably leads us to the relationship human beings have with

nature and with each other. For centuries, we have been using nature as a dumping

ground, without any attention to the consequences of our actions. There has been scarcelyany thought to creating systems which produce minimum waste, and capture and recycle

what waste they do create, in the increasingly sophisticated industrial systems that

humans have built, particularly in the so called advanced countries, or of reflecting thetrue costs of production.

Making a Map

While this might not be the forum to explore some basic but complex connections, I feelthey are important enough for us to touch on them. One of them is the material legacy

previous generations have bequeathed to us by their efforts i.e. the accumulation of

capital, after it became possible, over history. The other is the differentiation in human

society. Whether they rose independently or were linked at birth is a moot point, for theyhave certainly got inextricably linked over time, though each has its own manifestations.

At the risk of belabouring the obvious, let us see why they are important in the context of

Global warming. Most people would agree that the problem originates in how we have

become organized to meet our needs, i.e. how capital is currently deployed for production

and ancillary support and how the issues related to Global Commons is perceived. Also,most observers would concur that the problem is caused by the rich, nations or people,

and the consequences will be borne by the poor. This can only be the result of the

disparities of power between the two sections.

Inequality, particularly inequality of power, is not new to human society, for it has had

many faces, over the course of human existence. But even a cursory examination ofhistory suggests that disparities of power always result in consequences which favour the

powerful and demeaning and exploitation of the other, sometimes for extended periods,

because they create systems and structures that expand and sustain that inequality.

Let us just take a very brief look at human beings relationship with nature. All life tries

to adapt to its environment and to shape the environments to its needs. But as the power

of human beings has grown vis--vis nature, because of the accumulated material andintellectual capital, so has the respect for nature diminished. There has been no balance.

Human society has ruthless intervened and exploited nature wherever it could, restricted

only by its own limitations, always rationalizing it. We can only hope that outragednature does not have the last laugh.

When we examine human beings relationship with each other, the story is no different.Whether we study the history of nations or of race, caste, class and gender we see a

similar pattern. First, the needs of the dominant class become paramount, and the

dominated become only instruments to service them. Second, the appropriation of value

generated by the toiling multitudes is made invisible, while the generosity of the people


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at the top of the hierarchy is highlighted at every opportunity. Third, every attempt is

made to colonize the psyche of the dominated with the superiority of the dominators and

to suggest that they live in an imperfect but best possible system, to which there is noalternative. This is only possible when there is hegemony in the social discourse.

Let us now turn to the present and the other part of the equation. Capital, at a global level,is not only invested in a worldwide production and distribution web, but as part of its

DNA is constantly looking for opportunities to grow. But even apart from this material

basis, there are huge flows of financial capital across national borders, which actuallydwarf trade flows, in a restless desire to grow, like its physical counterpart, which have

consequences that are often not obvious. The drives of capital, with its desire for saving,

and leveraging it for its expansion, is a vitally important social actor, which appears

sometimes as if it is a totally independent, indifferent to human beings, except for usingthem as a vehicle for its own ends.

Capitalism has by expanding its reach within society, and between societies, which were

separated from each other, brought about both an increasing awareness of inequality, aswell as sharply intensified it. This is because capital accumulation is appropriated by

owners and managers of capital, while the rest of human beings make choices in thecontexts capitalism creates. In order to facilitate its growth, it tries to create an

environment friendly to it, and because of this concomitant inequality, it is able to

permeate every nook and corner, directly or indirectly. It generates a culture where

everybody is encouraged to promote their own interest.

The production systems that therefore result in this regime, focused as it is on

maximization of output and profits, and where it is so powerful vis--vis other socialactors, will inevitably lead to exploiting resources on a world scale, and to give little or

no attention to the waste it creates, systemically and individually. It also leads to a short

term horizon in all sectors, because it needs flexibility to deploy capital, where time maybring the greatest opportunity. Capital certainly improves human productivity, and even

makes it possible to accomplish goals, which might be otherwise out of reach or

impossible, and also promotes efficiency, but all these are subordinate to growth ofprofits.

A word on governments, which are supposed to be neutral umpires, which through

regulationare supposed to encourage those activities which promote socially desirableoutcomes, and inhibit those that dont. But governments are vitally interested in the

growth and preservation of their own power, which can only be sustained by economic

activity that is hostage to those who manage and control capital, which always haveoptions of deploying their capital elsewhere. The counterbalancing forces of political

parties and elections, which are supposed to reflect majority interest, where democratic

institutions exist, are too weak, structurally and otherwise given the inequality in society,to create, a level playing field.

Coming Back to the Terrain


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We need not go any further than the issue of Global Warming itself. Here is credible

evidence, sustained by a conservative scientific community in the shape of IPCC reports,

that the risk to poorer countries, and even more to weaker sections within thesecountries, is grave and rising. Yet it hardly draws any response commensurate to the

danger, apart from political posturing, while reflecting and protecting the interests of

those who would be adversely impacted by the necessary changes needed. This becomespossible only because capitalism fragments and weakens the majority, though as we can

see there is resistance at many levels. In poor third world countries, the immediate

concerns about livelihood become more pressing, making it difficult to focus or engagewith a wider context or the future.

What we should be trying to achieve is also reasonably clear. In a narrow sense, we need

to bring the carbon emissions down to the absorption capacity of the earth. But since, wehave been living beyond our means for at least a couple of centuries; we have

accumulated a debt to nature, which needs to be paid off. If we continue in our profligate

ways, we raise the risks to large sections of the world, perhaps in this lifetime itself.

Certainly, we threaten the ability of the next and succeeding generations, particularly ofthose who have been forced so far to under-consume, to any kind of decent life, not to

mention the life of other species that we will extinguish. The implication of this is fairlyobvious, we need to bring down the emissions dramatically and we need to do that now

As the draft resolution of the 2007 Symposium on Global Warming at the Indian Social

Science Congress in Mumbai states the current crisis is a direct consequence of the

pattern of capitalist development - with its inherent tendency of maximizing profits

and in the process, exploiting all natural resources on a world scale. This has

created affluent minorities within each society, generating ever-increasing demands

and un-sustainable levels of consumption that has led to this exponential rise of

greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

Since the consumption, both systemic and individual, is closest in the causal chain to our

enquiry, perhaps we should turn our attention to it.

The first item that one notices immediately is defense. Whatever may have been its

origins, it owes its place today largely to how we are organized as nation states and the

insecurity it engenders, and would have little place in a sane society. Yet a very

significant amount of activity and emissions globally is linked to it.

In terms of the largest carbon footprint, it has to be the generation and consumption of

electrical power which accounts for 24% of total emissions. Before we look at the production, let us look at the consumption side. USA, with a quarter of Indias

population, consumes about 4 times as much electricity (16 times per capita). Within

India, though I do not have the exact data, Delhi uses about 3-4 times more per capitathan the national average, which itself is pulled up by the urban population, and of other

major metropolitan cities in it. A drill-down of electrical consumption of the world, USA-

Europe-China-India, urban-rural India, Metropolitan cities Delhi-Mumbai-Calcutta-

Chennai would have been more insightful but I dont have ready access to it.


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However, capitalism now faces massive and unprecedented challenges. First, the falling

magnitude of profit, despite the recent rising profit margins, in the major developed

countries, has led to policies that have undermined the global financial underpinningsover the last century, which is beginning to threaten the support for it in its home bases.

This crisis is quite mature and the tremors for it are already being felt. The second is the

waste generation crisis, of which Global Warming is only the most visible. We havealready seen how serious this crisis is, from the attention it is now getting globally. The

third is the resource crisis, of which Peak Oil is only the most notable manifestation. And

energy being the most critical and vital link of human activity and society, it is hard tooverstate its importance for sustaining the present system. Fourth, is the transition crisis

from a unipolar to multipolar face for capitalism, which while not changing its essential

nature, can cause great turmoil as different nations jockey for greater control over global

affairs in general and natural resources in particular.

At a minimum, it is hard to see how the growth, which is so critical to its legitimacy, can

be sustained in the face of these multiple crises. It is very likely that more and more

people in the First, Second and Third world will begin to recognize the mirage of itspromises, the damage it is inflicting and that no degree of reform will enable it to take us

to the just, equitable, humane society we want.

But capitalism has proved a resilient system surviving many challenges, and I am no

believer in automatic collapses. Also, crises can have positive as well as negative

outcomes. What is needed is social creativity, at multiple levels and diverse ways, toexplore alternatives that may well become the seeds of tomorrow. But before we are able

to do that, we will have to confront a perceptual block in our mindset. It is one of the

ironies of history that the human journey marked by a desire to not accept the world as agiven, but to adapt it to its evolving needs, has reached a juncture where for most

humans, human society, including its inheritance, and its institutions are outsidetheir control. For as we try to struggle with possible trajectories, it is vital we focus oncreating an environment in which we can believe that it is possible for us to engage with

reality, choose and shape our future.

Summing up then, the problem of GW, defined in a narrow way, is relatively clear. Many

people would also agree with the goal of aligning our emission levels with earths

absorption capacity quickly to reduce risk to human beings and other life. Perhaps they

would also concur that this requires major change from the context in which we findourselves today, particularly to address issues of economic, political and social equity

which are a must for fair decision making. But how to explore alternatives to the current

system and get that reflected in material and cultural reality while situated in aweakening, but still powerful capitalism, is where the difficulties lie, which is why the

road ahead is so murky.


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