What if the Sun turns off the light?

Dr. Bert van den Oord

i.c.w. Dr. Eelco Doornbos

The impact of spaceweather on vital sectors

Relevance

› Since the ninety's technological revolution:

– Increasing role of satellites services for communication, navigation, monitoring,…

– Development of trans-continental networks for information, transport, power grids

– Replacement of atom clock time code by GNSS time code in many vital sectors

– Improved sensitivity of antenna and radar systems

› Since the ninety's societal revolution:

– Use of internet-based services for social contacts and information exchange

– Use of internet-based services for government communication

› National Risk Assessments indicate non-negligible risk for vital services

– risk = probability x impact

February 12, 2020

ENISA - Space weather indi 2

Event probability impact

Carrington low enormous

Average levels high small

Sun-Earth system: Space Weather

3 February 12, 2020

ENISA - Space weather

Problem:• Every 11 years the polarity of the solar magnetic field alternates• The magnetic field has to be expelled each cycle: solar flares and solar wind• These processes disturb the ionosphere and magnetosphere of the Earth• Impacts (inter)national vital sectors

Needed: development of (national) space weather services & alerts

Different views of the SUN

X-ray

UV- radiation

Visible

ENISA - Space weather

4

February 12, 2020

Solar corona: loops and holes

February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather

5

Coronal mass ejections

February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather

6

Magnetic Reconnection

Solar flares

Radiation Particles

Proton storms Coronal Mass Ejections Coronal Hole

Solar wind

Particles

ENISA - Space weather

7 February 12, 2020X-ray, EUV, radio

Impact on vital sectors (anecdotal)

8February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather

Coronal mass ejections

Relativisticprotons

X-rayimpact ionosphere:GPS/GNSSHF communication

Coherent radio emission

Solar wind

• Drag• Navigation• Time code

VIA MAGNETOSPHERE

DIRECT

DIRECT

VIA IONOSPHERE

C4ISR

February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather

9

Cause – effect diagram

13-11-2019

DCC-IenW / KNMI SWx 10

Arrival time prediction CME’s

February 12, 2020

ENISA - Space weather 11

Solar Radio Bursts 10 MHz – 3GHz

12

February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather

Relevance for NL: March 17, 2015 GPS in Delft

February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather

13

Modelling ionospheric disturbances

Credits NCAR/HAOFebruary 12, 2020

ENISA - Space weather 14

Modelling the solar influence

February 12, 2020

ENISA - Space weather 15Credits NCAR/HAO

Impact avition

16 ENISA - Space weatherFebruary 12, 2020

Aviation ICAO› Space weather in ICAO Annex3 (standard operations)

› Since November 2019 three global centres operational to provide civil aviation with warnings for disturbances in:

– GNSS

– UHF communication

– Radiation levels

PECASUS (FIN, UK, BEL, GER, IT, AU, POL, NL, CYP)

SWPC (USA)

ACJF (AUS, CAN, JAP, FRA)

17

February 12, 2020 ENISA - Space weather

Space WeatherSWE

Near Earth Objects

NEO

Space DebrisSST

Satellites

Vital sectorsCONTINUOUS

ELECTROMAGNETIC

InfrastructuresINCIDENTAL

BOMBARDMENT

February 12, 2020

ENISA - Space weather 18

ESA SPACE SAFETY PROGRAMME

Status space weather

› Developing at national and international level

› Involved organisations:– ESA space safety programme

– EU Commission: Space Programme (COPERNICUS, GALILEO, GOVSATCOM)

– COSPAR: scientific roadmap space weather

– WMO: operational roadmap for space weather (meteorology as example)

– COPUOS/UN: governmental

– ITU: radiofrequency domain effects

– ISES: International Space Enevironment Services

– National services

– ICAO: civil aviation

February 12, 2020

ENISA - Space weather 19