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The Impact of the WSA Program on Reducing High School Dropout
Nikolas Pharris-CiurejUW-BHS Project Workshop
October 19, 2007
Goals of the WSA Program Encourage school redesign Reducing financial barriers, associated with
college, for talented low income students Provide mentoring and support for students in
high school and college Ultimately, increase college going rates and
create a cadre of well educated citizens and leaders.
Potential Program Targets: High School
College Plans/Educational Goals Academic Rigor (AP, Advanced, Honors, College Prep) College Application Preparation (courses, SAT/ACT,
FAFSA, College Applications) High School Graduation
College College Attendance for Talented Students from
Disadvantaged Backgrounds Minimize Debt and Workload for Students from
Disadvantaged Backgrounds Increase 4 year college going rates for
students in WSA schools
National Census Bureau Estimates
HS Grad 84.9%
88.2%
BA/BS 26.0%
30.9%
The High School Completion Problem:% of Confirmed HS Graduates
40%46% 49%
Continously on-timeon-track 4 year
graduates
Graduated in 4 years-confirmed
Graduated in 5 yearsor less- confirmed
Per
ce
nt
of
Co
ho
rt
Research question:
Has the WSA program impacted high school graduation rates?Has the program impacted graduation rates
for any particular subpopulations? Low Income Students Poor performing students
Administrative School Records Enrolled students: (courses & grades) Typically tabulated in aggregate data
Collaborative with school district research office Possible to match students across years
Unique student ID and birthday Major limitation: Can not distinguish dropouts and out of
district transfers Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation techniques We estimate ~3/5th of the ‘exiters’ either: 1) dropout or 2) transfer
and eventually dropout. Defined universe
First time 9th graders in school district Track for 4 years and measure “net exits” 4 cohorts (entered 9th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)
Administrative School Records 5 High Schools in the District
3 WSA High Schools2 Non-WSA High SchoolsAllows for a ~ ‘treatment-control’ analysis
Cohorts starting 9th grade from 1996 to 1999Allows for a ‘pre-post’ program effect analysis
Independent Variables Background: “Risk Factors”
Race/Ethnicity & Gender Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level)Transferred into district for 9th gradeTransferred w/in district while in HS
Educational Experiences:Enrolled in a WSA schoolOver-age (indicator of prior retention)9th grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular First semester 9th grade GPA
Lexis-diagram of HS Progression
2nd Yr
1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
1st Yr
3rd Yr
4th Yr
Pre-Program Implementation
Partial Program: “Scholarships”
Full Program: “Scholarships & School Reform”
Time
Ye
ar
inS
ch
oo
l
Four Year High School Graduation By WSA and Program Implementation
52 4843 45
0
20
40
60
80
Pre-Program (1996-97) Post-Program (1999-2000)
Non-WSA WSA
48 -52 = 4% Decline45 – 43 = 2% Increase
Four Year HS Grad Rates for Low Income Students by WSA/ Non-WSA School, Pre & Post Program Implementation
41 4037 40
0
25
50
75
Lower Income (1996-97 AY) Lower Income (1999-00 AY)
Non-WSA
WSA
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase
a Percent of Overall Population
30%a 52% 29% 50%
Multivariate Analysis Logistic Regression Outcomes:
Made normal progression & graduated in 4 yearsGraduated in 4 years
Estimated Predicted Probabilities for an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools
Figure 1. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools remaining on-track and graduating from high school in 4 years.
.40
.44
.40.39.39
.37
.43
.40
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
WSA Schools Non-WSA Schools
Pro
ba
bil
ity
of
Gra
du
ati
ng
in
4 y
ea
rs
96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03
Figure 2. Predicted Probability of an African American male from a low SES family, with a C average in 9th grade, and a history of transferring schools graduating from high school in 4 years.
.50
.53
.49.50
.52
.48
.54
.50
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
WSA Schools Non-WSA Schools
Pro
ba
bil
ity
of
Gra
du
ati
ng
in
4 y
ea
rs
96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03
Conclusion
Tentative positive effect on high school graduationMost likely due to promise of scholarshipShould continue—maybe strengthen—over time as
program is fully implemented No effect on sub-populations of interest for
these cohorts
Next Steps Add additional cohorts Examine whether the program is increasing HS
grad rates for specific at risk sub-groups. e.g. Does attending a WSA high school less than likely
hood of dropout for poor performers in 9th grade? Examine in which grades is the program effecting
HS attrition (9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th grade)
Four Year High School Graduation By Family Income for WSA/ Non-WSA Schools Pre & Post Program Implementation
57
4151
4049
3750
40
0
20
40
60
80
Higher Income(1996-97 AY)
Lower Income(1996-97 AY)
Higher Income(1999-00 AY)
Lower Income(1999-00 AY)
Non-WSA
WSA
Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation
Non-WSA High Income 51–57 = 6% decrease
WSA High Income 50 - 49 = 1% Increase
Non-WSA Low Income 40–41 = 1% decrease
WSA Low Income 40–37 = 3% increase
a Percent of Overall Population
70%a 30%48% 52% 71% 50% 29% 50%
Pattern of Change ExpectedH
igh
Sch
ool G
radu
atio
n R
ates
Time
Pre-WSA Post-WSA
Year 1& 2Year 3
Initial gap due to selection of low socio-economic schools as WSA schools
WSA schools
Non-WSA schools
Year 4
Year 1* WSA effectYear 2 *WSA effect
Year 3*WSA effect
Year 4*WSA
Year 5