The initiative for coffee & climate

Angola, IACO Conference November 2015

Stefan CognigniHanns R. Neumann Stiftung Africa

Global suitability changes 2050: RCP 6

Fig. 3

Suitability changes by the 2050s in the RCP 6.0 scenario; A-D: Arabica, E-G: Robusta. Hatching indicatesthe current suitability distribution; Warm colors represent areas with negative climate change impacts andcold colors positive changes

Figure 3 (E-G) shows the changes in suitability for C. canephora by 2050 in the RCP 6.0

scenario in Brazil, its center of origin in West Africa, and the most important region of Robusta

production in South East Asia and the Asian island states. The Brazilian states of Rondonia and

Espirito Santo may see severe losses of suitability. The Congo basin and coastal regions of West

Africa have decreased suitability. In contrast, suitability is likely to increase at higher altitudes

along the equator. In South East Asia the dominant Vietnamese production regions lose

suitability.

Maps for the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios are in the Supplementary Material

(Fig. S1-2). The coefficient of variation across the 5 GCMs is in Supplementary Material Fig. S3.

The CV is generally low, with the exception of the region around Brasilia in Brazil where it is up

to 100 % for C. arabica.

3.3 Distribution of climate change impacts

Bunn et al., 2014

Arabica:• Latin-America: higher

altitudes• Brazil: suitability loss• Asia: higher altitudes• East-Africa: higher altitudes

Robusta:• Brazil: suitability loss• Congo Basin: suitability loss• S-E Asia: suitability loss• Along equator: gain at higher

altitudes

Suitability changes for Arabica in East Africa

• Suitability for Arabica moves up the slope

• Highly suitable areas for Arabica decrease

• Competition with protected areas - forests

Suitability changes for Robusta in East Africa

• Less suitability areas for Arabica become more suitable for Robusta

• North Uganda loses suitability

Year 2050

- 134kg/ha

Equivalent to

- 60million USDOf foreign export earningsper annum

Climate change already has an impact on coffee: example of Tanzania

Craparo et al. 2015

What do we mean with suitability?

• We look at climatic suitability

• We look at suitability in the current context in current systems

21 23 3024Temperature (°C)

Arabica

Robusta

Rainfall (mm) 1200 - 1800

Arabica

Robusta

Climate Change is complex

Time

Wea

the

r va

riab

le

Storms

El Niño

Long term

temp change

Farmers need help

• A global problem with location specific impact

• We need a practical approach to guide the development of coping strategies

vision:

• enable coffee farmers to effectively respond to climate change

mission:

• combine state of the art climate change science and proven farming methods

• offer practical, hands-on and applicable tools

• form a network of all relevant stakeholders in the field

• apply a 360° precompetitive approach including the entire value chain

Vision and mission

c&c – phase 1

founding members

new partners

implementing agents Hanns R. Neumann Conservation International

duration project phase I: 2010 –2015project phase II: 2015 –2018

11

Four pilot regions – 3.000 farmers

The c&c approach

Example of testing adaptation practices

Highly Detrimental

Detrimental

NormalWith Soil Cover

No Soil Cover

The effect of soil cover – a case study from Honduras

Tanzania Assessment of cc challengesExperiences from Mbeya

Lack of water, erratic rainfallpattern, rising temperatures, long intense dry seasons

Flower abortion, leaf wilt, leaf drop, soil loss, unproductive trees

Tanzania adaptation planning

(no regret) Measures:

• cover crops (kikuyu and napier grass)

• mulching

• soil management (conservation farming)

• rainwater harvesting

• deeper polybags

Experiments with:

• different levels of mulch

• shade management

Shade tree seedlings

Napier grass

Live mulch

Demo plot with cover crops

Adoption rates after 2 years

36%

45%

69%

78%

91%

100%

0%

18%

9%

52%

3%

91%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Gypsum application

Broca traps

Lime sulphur application

Cover crops

PH regulation

Rust management

Trifinio Adoption rate of adaptation practices

93%

85%

83%

75%

59%

44%

75%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Composting

Balanced fertilization

Diversification & intercropping

Irrigation water saving

Vietnam Adoption rate of adaptation practices

Adoption January 2013 Adoption Rate October 2014 Non-adopter

54%

76%

83%

86%

90%

94%

19%

13%

21%

28%

48%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Basins between tree lines

Conservation agriculture

Cover crops

Mulching

Planting early shade trees

Collecting climate data

Tanzania Adoption rate of adaptation practices

10%

23%

25%

30%

43%

53%

73%

100%

5%

10%

10%

30%

25%

45%

50%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Control of surface runoff

Larger poly bags

Collecting climate data

Gypsum

Collection of rainwater

Wind breaks

Protection of riparian areas

Cover crops

Brazil Adoption rate of adaptation practices

Adoption January 2013 Adoption Rate October 2014 Non-adopter

Number of adaptation practices applied

98%

53%

33%

13%

3%

66%

11%

21%

34%

21%

13%

100% 50% % 50% 100%

> 2 applied

Applying 4

Applying 3

Applying 2

Applying 1

Applying 0

January 2013 October 2014

Vietnam Number of adaptation options applied

94%

12%

30%

28%

21%

7%

28%

4%

15%

33%

42%

3%

100% 50% % 50% 100%

> 2 applied

Applying 6

Applying 5

Applying 4

Applying 3

Applying 2

Applying 1

Applying 0

January 2013 October 2014

Trifinio Number of adaptation options applied

98%

25%

32%

27%

11%

2%

2%

22%

9%

12%

14%

21%

44%

100% 50% % 50% 100%

> 2 applied

Applying 6

Applying 5

Applying 4

Applying 3

Applying 2

Applying 1

Applying 0

January 2013 October 2014

Tanzania Number of adaptation options applied

80%

5%15%

35%20%

5%15%

5%

45%

25% 20% 20%

35%

100% 50% % 50% 100%

> 2 applied

Applying 7

Applying 5

Applying 3

Applying 1

January 2013 October 2014

Brazil Number of adaptation options applied

Does adaptation pay?

Does adaptation pay?

Does adaptation pay?

Documentation and knowledgemanagement

THE C&C TOOLBOX IS…

A compilation of guidelines, training materials and

other didactic material to inform, capacitate and

empower farmers to cope with and adapt to

climate change

A collection of practices + experiences from the field

A living format which will continuously be further developed

THE OBJECTIVE IS…

To share, collect and consolidate knowledge and experiences on climate change adaptation in the coffee sector

To support adoption and implementation efforts

To close the gap between science and the field

C&C Toolbox – What is the toolbox?

C&CTOOLBOX

C&C TOOLBOX

Dissemination ToT Workshops

Participants Tanzania (2 workshops):

• Tanzania Coffee Board • Tanzanian Coffee Research

Institute (TaCRI, nat. research institute)

• Agricultural Research Institute Uyole

• District Agricultural Representatives

• Regional Agricultural Representatives

• CMS Mbozi (Coffee Management Services;)

• Ecom/Tutunze Kahawa Ltd.• Starbucks FSC

• Volcafe/Taylor Winch

• Tembo Coffee Co LTD

• Brazz Afric• Modern Agrovet

• Rainforest Alliance

• Café Africa

• HIVOS

• Solidaridad

• 4C

• Conservation Farm Unit

• Coffee Partnership Tanzania

• Fairtrade

• Utz Certified

Participants Vietnam:

• Tay Nguyen University

• Dak Lak Rural Development Division

• Provincial AgriculturalExtension Center Dak Lak

• DONRE Dak Lak

• DoST Dak Lak• Néstle Vietnam

• Mondelez

• Nedcoffee

• Amajaro Dak Lak• Olam Dak Lak

• (Ecom)

• Intimex Dak Lak

• SIMEXCO• VCCC

• Nam Nguyet Company• Trunk Nguyen Coffee Company

• 4C Association

• (Utz)

• (SNV)

Participants Trifinio:

• ANACAFE

• IHCAFE

• Consejo Salvadoreño de Café

• CATIE

• Volcafe• Ecom

• Força Café (Brazil)

• TH Valle Colombia (Project Tim Hortons)

• PPRONDECAFE (Project Tim Hortons)

• PROTCAFES (Project Tim Hortons and ICP)

• Rainforest Alliance

• KfW

• GIZ

Participants Brazil:

• EPAMIG

• EMATER

• INCAPER

• MDA

• SECAFE

• IAC

• Coopervass

• Cocarive

• Néstle

• Ecom-EISA

• Stockler• P&A Marketing

• Conservation International

DisseminationSourcebook

Download available on http://www.coffeeandclimate.org/training.html

c&c Phase 2 2015-1028

Coffee Communities need to increase their knowledge, capacity and ability to develop, implement and validate sustainable strategies at farm and landscape level.

• Scaling of the c&c approach, implementation and training.

• Further development of c&c approach and systematization of experiences – looking beyond the farm level, also to the communities and landscape levels.

• Strengthen c&c as a knowledge hub and learning network for increasing exchange and adaptive capacity.

Sector statement

• c&c committment– to work towards responsible use of resources (energy,

fertilizer, water) and to support the transition of farmers to sustainable and high quality production systems (mitigation and adaptation)

– on the political level, to participate and actively contribute in relevant fora and processes supporting the rehabilitation of degraded lands and soils in coffee countries

– to explore options for aligning in public-private partnerships that aim at developing and strengthening deforestation-free coffee supply chains

Sector statement

• we propose governments and relevant institutions – to support innovation and implementation of low-carbon

and climate-resilient technologies – to support enhancing the awareness and capabilities of

coffee-farmers to deal with climate change– to facilitate fora of exchange and invite sector

representatives, with the aim to build networks of cooperation and partnerships that develop and implement concrete projects in relevant coffee-growing regions

– to help raising consumer and market awareness for appropriately and fairly valuing climate-smart solutions for commodity production and sustainable land use

What about establishing an African Climate Change platform?

• To facilitate exchange between African countries about climate change

• To structure joint learning building on the individual countries’ local experiences

• To help develop and consolidate a joint Theory of Change – common vison on how to address climate change in coffee

• To assess best practices and feed the development of processes in the different countries

• To support and guide the individual countries’ agendas on climate change

How?

• Who would host such a platform?

• Who would play which role, both form the public and private sector?

• What resources would be available and from where?

• Would the commitment be there from the relevant institutions, i.e. investors, governments, civil society, etc.?

• …………………….

• …………………….

www.coffeeandclimate.orgwww.toolbox.coffeeandclimate.orgwww.coffeeandclimate.org/training.html