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The ‘internationalisation’ of the Australian economy August 2016 Mark Thirlwell, Chief Economist

The ‘internationalisation’ of the

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40
50
60
70
80
90
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Economic globalization Overall globalization index
KOF Globalization indicators: Australia 1970-2013 Index
Source: 2016 KOF Index of Globalization
Measure of overall globalisation, OECD members
AUSTRALIAN OPENNESS IN PERSPECTIVE
0
20
40
60
80
100
AUSTRALIAN OPENNESS IN PERSPECTIVE
0
20
40
60
80
100
Index
Trade integration across the OECD
AUSTRALIAN OPENNESS IN PERSPECTIVE
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
Per cent
AUSTRALIAN OPENNESS IN PERSPECTIVE
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Source: UNCTAD WIR 2016
FDI integration across the OECD (2)
AUSTRALIAN OPENNESS IN PERSPECTIVE
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Source: UNCTAD WIR 2016
Ratio for Luxembourg is 295 per cent Ratio for Ireland is 333 per cent
Role of foreign value added in exports
AUSTRALIAN OPENNESS IN PERSPECTIVE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
ra
Foreign value added content of gross exports for selected economies, 2011
Per cent
AUSTRALIAN OPENNESS IN PERSPECTIVE
0
20
40
60
80
A rg
Source: OECD-WTO TiVA database
THE MACRO VIEW
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Per cent
Source: ABS
13
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
SDR
A$
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Australia Unlimited
14
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Real effective exchange rate index
Index, 2010 = 100
Index, A$1=USD
Australia Unlimited
15
13.3
42.6
2.3
14.0
6.6
0.3
20.9
Food
Per cent of total
Minerals and fuels
Other primary products
Change in value of exports by sector, 2015
A$ billions
Source: DFAT Australia's Direction of goods and services trade and Austrade. *Includes BoP adjustment
Australia Unlimited
16
2 Coal 37.0 11.6
4 Natural gas 16.5 5.2
5 Personal travel (excl education) services 15.9 5.0
6 Gold 14.5 4.5
8 Aluminium ores & conc (incl alumina) 7.5 2.4
9 Crude petroleum 6.0 1.9
10 Wheat 5.8 1.8
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
Education-related travel services (c)
Beef, f.c.f.
Gold
Wheat
Coal
A$ billions
Australia Unlimited
17
4 Republic of Korea 20.0 6.3
5 India 13.6 4.3
7 Singapore 11.0 3.5
9 Malaysia 8.0 2.5
10 Taiwan 7.5 2.4
ASEAN 10 38.6 12.2
EU 28 23.5 7.4
New Zealand
United Kingdom
Total all countries
Change in value of top ten export markets, 2015 A$ billions
Source: DFAT web site and Austrade.
Australia Unlimited
18
2 Passenger motor vehicles 20.4 5.8
3 Refined petroleum 18.4 5.2
4 Telecom equipment & parts 11.7 3.3
5 Freight services 10.2 2.9
6 Crude petroleum 9.4 2.7
7 Computers 8.5 2.4
9 Goods vehicles 6.7 1.9
10 Passenger transport services (d) 6.5 1.8
Subtotal 125.7 35.7
Total 352.7 100.0
-15 -10 -5 0 5
Passenger motor vehicles
Telecom equipment & parts
A$ billions
Australia Unlimited
19
3 Japan 22.7 6.4
5 Thailand 15.4 4.4
6 Germany 15.4 4.4
7 Singapore 14.7 4.2
10 Malaysia 11.2 3.2
ASEAN 10 57.4 16.3
EU 28 65.9 18.7
-5 0 5 10 15 20
Total
China
A$ billions
A$ bn Share (%)
3 Japan 16.3 6.7
4 Singapore 14.9 6.1
5 Netherlands 10.5 4.4
6 Germany 6.1 2.5
8 Belgium 2.9 1.2
9 Canada 2.2 0.9
Subtotal 176.9 73.0
ASEAN 16.3 6.7
EU 80.2 33.1
A$ bn Share (%)
2 Japan 85.9 11.7
4 Netherlands 44.4 6.0
5 China 35.2 4.8
6 Singapore 28.8 3.9
7 Canada 25.9 3.5
8 Bermuda 24.1 3.3
10 Germany 17.2 2.3
ASEAN 41.5 5.6
EU 157.6 21.4
Inward FDI in 2001 Inward FDI in 2015
TOP TEN DIRECT INVESTORS BY COUNTRY, 2001 VS 2015
20
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
East Asia
North America
Per cent, share of total
Source: ABS 5352.0. Note that the figures for North America in 2004 and 2005 reflect the impact of the relocation of News Corp from Australia to the United States.
Australia Unlimited
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FDI into Australia: Financial account transactions 2001-2015
A$ billions
Source: ABS 5352.0. Note that data in 2004 and 2005 reflect impact of relocation of News Corp from Australia to the United States.
Australia Unlimited
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair Of Motor Vehicles
Construction
Information and Communication
A$ billions
24
Manufacturing 95.0 17.5
Construction 9.1 1.7
Electricity, Gas, etc. 5.1 0.9
Transportation and Storage 4.1 0.8
Information and Communication 3.5 0.6
Prof, Scientific & Technical Activities 3.1 0.6
Accommodation & Food Services 0.1 0.0
Total FDI stock 542.6 100.0
FDI from Australia by sector, 2015
A$ bn Share (%)
Manufacturing 85.9 11.7
Unallocated 85.1 11.6
Financial and Insurance Activities 59.6 8.1
Wholesale and Retail Trade 52.4 7.1
Information and Communication 25.0 3.4
Transportation and Storage 20.5 2.8
Construction 17.5 2.4
Electricity, Gas, etc. 13.1 1.8
Accommodation & Food Services 7.3 1.0
Prof, Scientific & Technical Activities 4.6 0.6 Human Health & Social Work 1.8 0.2
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1.6 0.2
Admin and Support Services 1.2 0.2
Total FDI stock 735.5 100.0
FDI in Australia by sector, 2015
Source: ABS. Note data for several sectors were not published.
A$ bn Share (%)
4 Hong Kong SAR 4.9 2.1
5 Canada 3.6 1.6
6 Singapore 2.1 0.9
8 Germany 1.0 0.4
9 Indonesia 0.5 0.2
10 China 0.4 0.2
ASEAN 6.3 2.8
EU 48.0 20.9
A$ bn Share (%)
4 Singapore 21.2 3.9
6 Germany 14.8 2.7
7 China 14.1 2.6
8 Canada 8.5 1.6
9 Bermuda 7.9 1.5
10 Netherlands 7.8 1.4
ASEAN 37.6 6.9
EU 111.8 20.6
Outward FDI in 2001 Outward FDI in 2015
TOP TEN INVESTMENT DESTINATIONS BY COUNTRY, 2001 VS 2015
25
Source: ABS. Note FDI stock data for PNG and Germany were not published for 2014 and 2015, so latest data in table are for 2013.
Australia Unlimited
26
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Services supplied to US persons by Australian MNEs
US imports of Australian services
Ratio of FATS to imports (RHS)
United States: Services imports from Australia and foreign affiliate sales
US$ billions
Source: BEA and Austrade. Note: no FATS data available for 2014.
Per cent
EXPORTER DATA
Outside of state/territory but within Australia
Overseas markets
Geographic market in which businesses sold goods or services, 2014-15
Per cent of total, all Australian businesses
Source: ABS Selected Characteristics of Australian Business, 2014-15
Australia Unlimited
29
0.2
0.8
1.0
3.3
3.5
3.7
6.0
6.5
7.1
8.6
8.6
9.7
10.6
13.4
18.4
19.3
24.3
25.3
Other Services
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Arts and Recreation Services
Manufacturing
Information Media and Telecommunications
Share of businesses selling goods or services in overseas markets, 2014-15
Per cent of total, by industry
Source: ABS Selected Characteristics of Australian Business, 2014-15
Australia Unlimited
Number of exporters
Source: ABS 5368.0.55.006 and Austrade. Other sectors comprises goods exporters from the utilities sector and a range of other services sectors.
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Construction services
Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.
Telecommunication, Computer and information
Number of exporters
Source: ABS 5368.0.55.006 and Austrade. Note no estimate available for travel, insurance and pension services and government goods and services nie. Note also that firms can export more than one type of service
Australia Unlimited
31
79.3
0.6
19.8
11.8
0.9
87.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Number of exporters (N = 48,681) Value of exports (N = A$254.6b)
Micro
SMEx
Mega
Per cent of total
96.9
25.1
3.1
74.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Number of exporters (N = 3,557) Value of exports (N = A$22.1b)
Micro and SMEx
Per cent of total
Source: ABS 5368.0.55.006 and Austrade. Note, exporter count only available for A$22.1b of services exports, but total value of services exports in 2014-15 was A$63.1b.
Australia Unlimited
32
Top 15 export markets for goods, 2014-15: By value of export
Market Value (A$ billions)
Share of total exports
4 United States 13.4 5.3
5 India 9.8 3.8
7 Singapore 8.3 3.2
8 Taiwan 6.9 2.7
9 Malaysia 6.1 2.4
10 Indonesia 5.6 2.2
11 Thailand 5 2.0
13 UAE 3.3 1.3
14 Vietnam 3.3 1.3
Source: DFAT Composition of Trade Australia 2014-15, Tables 27, 28
Top 15 export markets for goods, 2014-15: By number of exporters
Market
3 Singapore 6,418 13.2
5 China 6,231 12.8
7 PNG 4,824 9.9
8 Malaysia 3,831 7.9
9 Japan 3,105 6.4
10 Fiji 2,961 6.1
11 Thailand 2,953 6.1
12 Germany 2,852 5.9
13 UAE 2,756 5.7
14 Canada 2,469 5.1
15 Indonesia 2,428 5.0
Note, exporters can sell to more than one market.
Australia Unlimited
33
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
Total goods exporters (old count)
Total goods exporters (new count)
Australia: Number of goods exporters
Source: ABS 5368.0.55.006 and Austrade
Australia Unlimited
34
Mining
Change in number of exporters excluding unidentified category
Source: ABS 5368.0.55.006 and Austrade. Other sectors includes goods exporters in the utilities sector and other service sectors.
Australia Unlimited
35
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Maintenance and repair n.i.e.
Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e.
Construction services
Change in number of services exporters by sector, 2014-15
Change in number of exporters
Source: ABS 5368.0.55.006 and Austrade. Note no estimate available for travel, insurance and pension services and government goods and services nie. Note also that firms can export more than one type of service so totals are not additive.
Australia Unlimited
36
Indonesia
Malaysia
PNG
Japan
Fiji
Germany
Thailand
Canada
Singapore
UAE
China
Change in goods exporter numbers for top 15 markets, 2014-15
Source: ABS 5368.0.55.006 and Austrade
Change in number of exporters
SURVEY DATA
38Introducing AIBS 2016
39Introducing AIBS 2016
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Export of intermediate goods directly from Australia
Exporting goods related to supply contract with overseas MNC
Exporting goods indirectly via export agents
Exporting goods indirectly through overseas branch, subsidiary or JV
Export of final goods directly from Australia
Very important Moderately important
Not important Not applicable
Source: AIBS 2016
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Export of intermediate services directly from Australia
Exporting services related to supply contract with overseas MNC
Exporting services indirectly via export agents
Exporting services indirectly through overseas branch, subsidiary or JV
Export of final services directly from Australia
Very important Moderately important
Not important Not applicable
40Introducing AIBS 2016
No, not involved
Involvement in inward and outward investment flows over past year Per cent of respondents
Source: AIBS 2016
Receiving capital from an overseas investor (inward investment)
Investing in an existing overseas business (outward M&)
Investing in a new overseas operation (outward green field investment)
Very important Moderately important
Not important Not applicable
41Introducing AIBS 2016
42Introducing AIBS 2016
43Introducing AIBS 2016
Involvement in other international business activities Per cent of respondents
Source: AIBS 2016
Manufacturing of products or components overseas through licensing
Employment of temporary skilled labour from overseas
Purchase or licensing of IP
Undertaking R&D activities overseas
Very important Moderately important
Not important Not applicable
AIBS 2016 KEY FACTORS IN TARGETING TOP MARKETS
44Introducing AIBS 2016
AIBS 2016 KEY FACTORS IN TARGETING TOP MARKETS
45Introducing AIBS 2016
Reputation, reputation, reputation. . .
46Introducing AIBS 2016
47Introducing AIBS 2016
48Introducing AIBS 2016
AIBS 2016 KEY RISKS FOR NEXT THREE TO FIVE YEARS
49Introducing AIBS 2016