March 3, 2003: Pres. Bush announces Iraqi invasion

April 9, 2003: Baghdad falls April 19, 2003: Cement mixer truck bomb hits UN

mission killing 17 May 1, 2003: Bush announces “mission

accomplished” May 16, 2003: CPA Order # 1 removes 50,000

Ba’ath Party members from power May 23, 2003: CPA Order # 2 disbands the Iraqi

Army

August 7, 2003: Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad bombed – first terrorist-style attack in Iraq

December 13, 2003: Saddam captured April 30, 2004: Abu Ghraib Scandal breaks June 2004: Bremer turns power over to Iraqi

interim government September 2004: 1,000 American battle

deaths November 7, 2004: 1st Battle of Falluja January 2005: Elections for new government

October 2005: 2,000 American battle deaths November 19th 2005: Haditha Massacre, 24

die after IED October 2005: Constitutional election December 2005: Parliamentary election December 2006: 3,000 American battle

deaths March 2008: 4,000 American battle deaths August 2010: Pres. Obama declares end to

U.S. combat in Iraq 2018 4,000 battle deaths? (31k wounded)

Why were we there?

•WMD•George W. Bush•Bush Advisors•9/11•Preventive War•US Strategic Culture•Oil

February 2003: General Eric Shinseki warns that “something on the order of several hundred thousand” soldiers will be needed for postwar Iraq. He is ignored.

May, 2003: De-Ba’athification and disbanding the army leave 300,000 men with military training suddenly unemployed.

2004-05: Cities Strategy and “Whack-a-Mole” operations. Attempts to fight the war by ourselves.

WMD Disbanding Iraqi Army De-Bathification Military Strategy – Search and Destroy -

Conveying overly negative image vs. Winning hearts and minds

Underestimating the influence of Iran in Iraqi Shiite politics

Cultural differences: Arabs vs. Kurds Misunderstanding of terrorism

Security (Transportation, Blackwater, Weapons, Borders)

Economically: Where is the money going? Where was the oil revenue that was supposed to pay for all of this?

The “Reconcilables” Former Ba’athists Special Republican Guard officers

The “Irreconcilables” AQI

Paid $35 for RPG attack, $500 for confirmed kill of Americans

IED’s and VBIEDs

The sectarian nature of Iraq: Sunni, Shia and Kurd

How do you measure success? The “Surge”

COIN strategy: U.S. and Iraqi forces together Indirect Counterinsurgency The Anbar Awakening

Saddam out of power Increased enlistment into Iraqi

Army/Reduced US presence Elections/New Government Normal life has/has not resumed?

•Kurd independence?•Mapping the new Middle East•Egypt

The Longest War in American History

Total -- 28,395,716 (est. July 2010) Structure

0-14 years: 43.6% 15-64 years: 54% 65 years and over: 2.4%

Median Age – 18 years Life expectancy – 44.4 years 24% in urban centers

• Ethnic groups• Pashtun 42%, • Tajik 27%, • Hazara 9%, • Uzbek 9%, • Aimak 4%, • Turkmen 3%, • Baloch 2%, • other 4%

• Religion • Sunni Muslim 80%, • Shia Muslim 19%, • Other 1%

• Language• Afghan Persian or Dari (official) 50%,

• Pashto (official) 35%, • Turkic languages (primarily Uzbek and Turkmen) 11%,

• 30 minor languages (primarily Balochi and Pashai) 4%,

GDP $27.01 billion (2009 est.) – 110 in world rank $1,000/capita (2009 est.) – 210 in world rank

Labor – 15 million (2004 est.) agriculture: 78.6% industry: 5.7% services: 15.7% (FY08/09 est.) 35% unemployed (2008 est.)

Products Agricultural -- opium, wheat, fruits, nuts; wool, mutton,

sheepskins, lambskins Industrial -- small-scale production of consumer goods;

hand-woven carpets; natural gas, coal, copper

Afghanistan is 174th of 178 countries on the UN development index

Afghanistan is 176th of 180 countries on the UN corruption index

GDP per capita is $456, up from 352 last year

90% of Aghan budget comes from foreign aid Afghanistan supplies 90% of the world’s

opium, worth $3 billion to the economy Taliban make $200 million per year from

taxing poppy production

1747 – unification of the Pashtun tribes 1919 - independence from notional British control 1973 coup and a 1978 Communist counter-coup resulted in

Soviet Union invasion 1979 1989 USSR withdrawal 1996 end of civil war period control by Taliban 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in NYC and Washington,

D.C. 7 October 2001 U.S., Allied, and anti-Taliban Northern Alliance

military action toppled the Taliban. December 2004, Hamid KARZAI became the first

democratically elected president of Afghanistan and the National Assembly was inaugurated the following December.

The Taliban, Sunni fundamentalists, had controlled most of Afghanistan since 1996 after defeat of the Northern Alliance. They provided safe haven for Osama Bin Laden and other members of al Qaeda during their planning of the 9/11 “Planes Operation”

The Taliban were only recognized by 3 other states and were known for a brutal strict interpretation of Sharia Law. The provided a training ground for radical Islamic terrorists

LEAD INTERNATIONAL FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN (pre-surge)http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7966982.stm#map

Operation “Enduring Freedom”, The US-led invasion in 2001 was largely special forces, CIA and air support for Northern Alliance forces, toppled the Taliban in just 2 months. Remnants of the Taliban moved to the Tora Bora region in Eastern Afghanistan or in to Pakistan

The UN Security Council created the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to rebuild Afghanistan and provide security.

Hamid Karzai, “The Mayor of Kabul” By 2003 the Taliban had regrouped in Pakistan By 2007 Security incidents increased 300%. IED attacks rose by 37% The Karzai govt control only 75% of the

country Over 1000 civilians killed by ISAF

Afghanistan is not Iraq

“The Great Game”History of Invasion – British, Soviet Union& Pakistan

The Afghan “Surge” ISAF raised to 120K up from 70k (90k are

American) Indirect Counterinsurgency has reduced

civilian casualties by half “Clear, Hold, Build……and Transfer/WHAM Focus remains Helmand & Kandahar

provinces Afghan Army and police recruiting are up,

but illiteracy and desertion still present a problem

What would represent a successful outcome?“It’s 2018, and there are young men and women now being sent over there who were literally in diapers when we first sent troops to Afghanistan.”— Will Fischer, a former Marine lance Corporal, on the long U.S. involvement in the Afghan war.What policies would you recommend?