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The Linked Exchange Rate system of Hong Kong. Banking Commissioner Office. Exchange Fund Office. Hong Kong Monetary Authority. 1 April 1993. Main Functions. Keeping the Hong Kong dollar stable Managing the Exchange Fund in a sound and effective way - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
The Linked Exchange Rate system of Hong Kong
2
1 April 1993
Exchange Fund Office
Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Banking Commissioner
Office
3
Main Functions
Keeping the Hong Kong dollar stable
Managing the Exchange Fund in a sound and effective way
Promoting the safety and stability of Hong Kong’s banking system
Developing Hong Kong’s financial infrastructure
4
Monetary Policy Objective
Currency stability, defined as a stable external exchange value of the currency of Hong Kong, in terms of its exchange rate in the foreign exchange market against the US dollar, at around HK$7.80 to US$1.
5
Importance of Exchange Rate Stability
As an international financial centre, exchange rate volatility affects capital allocation decision of foreign investors
Hong Kong is a small and highly-open economy
As an international trading centre, external trade equals to 4 times GDP
6
US Dollar as the Anchor Currency
Business cycle synchronisation between Hong Kong and the US is the highest
US dollar is the most commonly used currency for international trade and financial transactions
US is Hong Kong’s second largest trading partner
7
Historical Background
In 1982-83, Sino-British talk on the resumption of Hong Kong's sovereignty after 1997 triggered a confidence crisis, leading to sharp depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar
In response, the HK Government established the Linked Exchange Rate system on 17 October 1983
A currency board system
8
Monetary Base fully backed by foreign exchange reserves
Components of Monetary Base:Currency in circulation
Aggregate Balance
Exchange Fund Bills and Notes
Currency Board system
9
Currency in circulation
HKD banknotes issued by the three note-issuing banks are fully backed by USD reserves
fixed exchange rate
USDHKD Banknotes
HK$7.8=US$1
10
Aggregate Balance
Sum of clearing accounts maintained by
banks with the HKMA
= interbank liquidity condition
HKMA
Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank Bank
11
Exchange Fund Bills and Notes
Direct and unconditional obligations of the HK Government under the Exchange Fund Account
Introduced in March 1990
Tenors of the Bills are 91, 182 and 364 days, while those of the Notes are 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 15 years
12
How does the Linked Exchange
Rate system operate?
13
Automatic adjustment mechanism (1)
Downward pressure on Hong Kong dollar
exchange rateCurrency Board buys
Hong Kong dollars
Monetary Base contracts
Interest rate rises
Market participants sellHong Kong dollars
Capital outflow
Market participants buy or sell fewer Hong Kong dollars
because of higher Hong Kong dollar interest rates
Hong Kong dollar exchange rate stability
14
Automatic adjustment mechanism (2)
Capital inflow
6
Market participants buy Hong Kong dollars
expandsCurrency Board sells
Hong Kong dollarsInterest rate falls
Hong Kong dollar exchange rate stability
Upward pressure on Hong K
ong dollar exchange rate
Market participants sell or buy fewer Hong Kong dollars because of lower
Hong Kong dollar interest rates
15
Resilence Against External Shocks
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
HK$/US$
World StockMarket Crash
(Oct 87)
Gulf Crisis(Aug 90)
Closure ofBCCI (HK)
(Summer 91)
ERMTurmoil
(Sep 92)
MexicanCrisis
(Jan 95)
AsianCurrency
Turmoil (July97-98)
Announcementof the passingaway of Deng(20 Feb 97)
Introduction ofthe LinkedExchange
Rate system(Oct 83)
Abandonmentof Argentine
Currency Boardsystem (Jan 02)
11thSeptember
2001
Reform of RMBexchange rateregime (Jul 05)
Collapse of LehmanBrothers and Global
Financial Crisis (Sep 08)
16
Reform measures
September-1998
( seven measures )
May-2005
( three refinements)
17
Background on seven technical measures in 1998
Market concerns : Asian financial crisis
Rumours of renminbi devaluation, market scepticism on the commitment to the Link
A lot of Hong Kong dollar short-selling activities, tight interbank liquidity and high interest rate volatility
18
Interest rates movement during the Asian Financial Crisis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
O/N HIBOR
1M HIBOR
First-round attack
Second-round attack
Third-round attack
Fourth-round attack
Introduction of the seven technicalmeasures (7 Sept)
Free floatingof Thai baht(2 July)
19
Seven technical measures
Introduced in September 1998 to strengthen
the Currency Board arrangement
Seven technical measures
Convertibility Undertaking
Discount Window
20
Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking
US dollar
Hong Kong dollar
BankHKMA
US$1 = HK$ 7.80
Clarify commitment to the Linked Exchange Rate system
21
Discount Window
Bank HKMA
Banks can use Exchange Fund paper as collateral to arrange repo agreement with the HKMA for liquidity management (4:30 p.m. daily)
Avoid excessive interest rate volatility and allows orderly adjustment
22
7.60
7.65
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
7.95
8.00
7.60
7.65
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
7.95
8.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2002 2003 2004 2005
FX market development in 2002-05 HK$/US$ HK$/US$
HKD exchange rate
Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking (CU)
Triggering of weak-side CU
23
Background on three refinements in 2005
Expectations on renminbi appreciation
Hong Kong’s economic recovery
Depreciation of the US dollar
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003 2004 2005
Aggregate BalanceHK$ billion HK$ billion
Aggregate Balance (exclude interest payments on
Exchange Fund paper)
25
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
%
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0%
2003 2004 2005
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
HKD & USD interest rates
LIBOR
HIBOR
26
Impact of easy monetary conditions
Risk of inflation and formation of asset bubble
Destabilising effect associated with realignment of HKD interest rates with USD rates
27
Three refinements
Three refinements
Strong-side Convertibility Undertaking
Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking
Convertibility Zone
28
Three refinements (1)
The HKMA undertakes to buy US dollar from banks at HK$7.75/US$1
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
29
Three refinements (2)
Gradually move the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking from 7.80 to 7.85
23/5 20/6
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
30
Three refinements (3)Establish a Convertibility Zone, within which the HKMA can conduct discretionary monetary operations
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90
Convertibility
Zone
31
Effects of the three refinements
Remove uncertainty about appreciation potential of the Hong Kong dollar
HKD interest rates closer to USD rates
Strengthen the operation of the Linked Exchange Rate system
32
Hong Kong dollar exchange rate
7.60
7.65
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90HK$/ US$
7.60
7.65
7.70
7.75
7.80
7.85
7.90HK$ / US$
Convertibility Zone
HKD market exchange rate
Weak-side Convertibility Undertaking
Strong-side Convertibility Undertaking
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
33
12-month interest rate spreads
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
%
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
12-month HIBOR-LIBOR spread
34
ConclusionThe Linked Exchange Rate syst
em is a cornerstone for maintaining economic stability
Economic underpinningsAmple forex reservesFlexible economic structurePrudent fiscal policy stanceSound banking system