THE LUDDITES VERSUS

THE GEEKS

Richard S. Wolff, Ph. DMontana State University

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering.rwolff@montana.edu

406 994 7172October 2, 2003

Talk Outline

• How technologies evolve• Innovation and the shaping of the

telecommunications industry• A few considerations of what we might

expect in the future

First a few definitions

• Luddite: One who opposes the introduction of new technology, esp. into a place of work.

• A member of an organized band of English mechanics and their friends, who (1811-16) set themselves to destroy manufacturing machinery in the midlands and north of England.

Source: Oxford English Dictionary

First a few definitions

• Geek:A person who is extremely devoted to and knowledgeable about computers or related technology

slang (chiefly U.S.). a. orig. Eng. regional (north.). A person, a fellow, esp. one who is regarded as foolish, offensive, worthless, etc.

Source: Oxford English Dictionary

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

A historical example of progress:Steam ships replace sail ships

Frac

tion

of g

ross

tonn

age

built

in y

ear

1830 19401880Source: Historical Statistics of the US

~ten years

What were people thinking?

The luddites• Steam is dangerous• Where will we get the

fuel?• Steam engines are

unreliable• What will happen to

all the sail makers?

The geeks• Faster• More efficient• Predictable delivery

times• Easier to maneuver• Bigger ships

Another example

And probably the same arguments!Source: TFI, Inc.

A more familiar example from telecom

Source: TFI, Inc.

New technology has led to improved efficiency- employees per 10,000 access lines

But its about more than only cost avoidance…

• New technology can change the landscape, enable new applications– Stored program control switches enabled value-

added services• Call re-direction, 800 numbers, etc

– Lower technology costs enable new market entrants and change the industry structure

• Competition• Intelligence at the customer premises

Even the luddites benefit from innovation

“You’ve got mail”

The impact of sustaining and disruptive technology change

Performance demanded at low end of market

Performance demanded athigh end of market

Sustaining Technology

Prod

uct

perf

orm

ance

Disruptive Technology

Time

Source: Clayton Christensen, “The Innovator’s Dilemma”

Technology innovation stimulates new applications10,000

75 80 85 90 95

14 inch drives

Mainframes

8 inch drives

Mini computers 5.25 i

nch dr

ives

3.5 in

ch dri

ves

Desktop PCs

Notebo

ok PCs

YearSource: Clayton Christensen, “The Innovator’s Dilemm

1000

Ave

. dis

c ca

p aci

ty, M

B

100

10

1

a

Will voice over packet replace circuit-switched voice?

Packet networking is a disruptivedisruptive technology• The Geeks

– All information is digital

– Packets are more efficient

– Voice/data convergence

– The Internet will rule– New applications

without limit

• The Luddites– Circuit switching

provides high service quality

– Circuit switches are reliable

– Packet networks are vulnerable to abuse

– Huge capital investment to protect

Another innovation: will fiber replace copper?

Forecast made in 1989

What were we thinking?

So who was right this time?

• The Luddites– No demand for more

bandwidth– Installation costs are

too high– Huge capital

investment in outside plant

– Moore’s law can’t go on for ever

• The Geeks– High def TV is coming– Broadband ISDN will

solve everything– Opto-electronics,

semiconductors and fiber are on a very steep learning curve

Maybe the Luddites were right?

So what is different now?

• The Internet - applications we never dreamed of!

• Sustained technological progress in electronics and optics

• Strong evidence for high speed access (DSL, cable modems, etc.)

• A “critical mass” effect?

Continued growth in Internet usage-

In spite of the burst in the Telecom bubble!!

New applications are hard to predict

“My god! There’s been a terrible accident in our Chicago office”!”

March of progress in electronics1987 view

Will Moore’s law continue?

• The Luddites– Limit on narrow line

widths on chips– Too much complexity

on a chip – can’t be properly modeled and designed

– Power consumption will lead to melt down

– Too many input/output leads

• The Geeks– User shorter

wavelengths for drawing lines

– Reduce voltage to lower power

– Use optical interconnects

– Build in redundancy to improve reliability

And the winner is….Progress in semiconductor electronics,2002 view

Sustained progress forecast over the next decade

What is the next killer application?

South Korea leads the way

• Lee Yong Kyung, CEO of Korea Telecom, "The killer application of the Internet is speed. The money is in the pipes."

Country Percentage of homes

South Korea 57USA 25

Internet homes with broadband access

Source: NY Times, May 3, 2003

Broadband access demand is global

Ranking Country Total DSL lines (millions)

1 Japan 7.0

2 USA 7.0 (+ 14M cable)

3 South Korea 6.7

4 Germany 3.6

5 China 2.9

Source: DSL Forum, June 2003

The “critical mass” effect

• Malcolm Gladwell: “The Tipping Point”– Change is contagious- a few people can infect a

large population– Subtle changes can have a big effect– Several factors can combine to make a sudden

and dramatic impact

The geeks can spread an epidemic among the luddites

Analysts’ Forecasts for U.S. FTTH

Forecast made in 20032M

FTTHFTTHTotalTotal

1M

0

EPONEPONFTTHFTTH

1M ~ 2% ofBB U.S. HH

in 2006

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Sources: CIR, FTTH Council, InStat/MDR, Probe Research

And one more thing to look out for…

WirelessWireless

A few prophetic remarks from the past

• The “Negreponte Switch”:– only mobile services should be wireless;

stationary services should be wired. eg, relegate TV broadcasting to cable. ...

• The impact of billions of embedded processors– “Things that think – link”

Nicholas Negreponte, MIT Media Lab ( a famous geek)

The migration of voice to wireless

• This war is over, the tipping point has occurred

• But what’s next – will data (and the Internet) move to wireless?

Wireless Internet: top down or bottom up?

•Windows or Linux?

–Hierarchical project managers or egalitarian hackers?

•Cellular orWiFi?

Eric Raymond

Wireless data –when will it happen?

• Top down: the cathedral builders– First there was CDPD– Then SMS, GPRS, EDGE, 1XRTT, 1XEVDO,

3G….• Meanwhile in the bazaar

– Will WiFi make a difference?

Wireless chipsets make WiFi cost effective?

Intel introducesCentrino chips

802.11g stdadopted

Source: Pyramid research

Intel generates momentum for WiFi

WiFi access complements good food!

A “war drive” of Bozeman41 WiFi access points

Bottom up innovation:use of WiFi for fixed Internet access

A few things that will be important in the next decade

• Embedded processors– There is a chip in everything– XXX microprocessors manufactured in 2002– Chips replace bar codes…..

• And ad hoc networks to link all these gadgets– WiFi– Ultra wideband

A few things that will be important in the next decade

• Adaptive, network-distributed software– Software-defined radios: adaptive waveforms,

modulation– Application software downloaded over the

network• QUALCOMM “BREW” environment in use now• software agents act on users’ behalf

A few things that will be important in the next decade

• The all-optical network– Wavelengths get cheaper, closer together– Opto-electronic chips replace discrete

components– Ultra-dense WDM: A unique wavelength

replaces an IP address or phone number???

25 Tbps

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

1 Gbps

10 Gbps

100 Gbps

1 Tbps

10 Tbps

100 Tbps

100 Mbps

High bit ratesystems

High channelcount systems

TDM

DWDM

Aggregate fibercapacity

Bit rateper channelOC-48

OC-12

OC-192

OC-768

160 λs

>1000 λs

>200 λs

Can this trend continue unabated??

A few hidden assumptions- its not just about technology

• In the next few years we will need to:– Resolve video and audio ownership/sharing

intellectual property issues– Understand the economics for pricing & billing

of broadband services– Clear up some of the regulatory and

competitive issues that are constraining investment

Economic trends suggest long-term telecom demand should remain robust

Telecoms Servicesas % of US GDP

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

%

Telecoms Services (Adjusted to GDP)

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

$ (

Lo

g S

cale

)Comms spending is ~3% of GDP & growing @1.4%/yr (not including web /internet services) GDP/capita

growing ~6%/year

This is just the beginning!

Source: Rainer Malaka, EMLICDE 2001

And a final caveat

• Predictions are very difficult to make, especially when they are about the future

Attributed to Mark Twain

But maybe it was Yogi Berra?

“All I’m saying is NOW is the time to develop the technology to deflect an asteroid”

A cautionary comment to the luddites