THE MEASUREMENT OF URBAN LAND CONSUMPTIONAS A SOURCE OF INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC

PERFORMANCE AND SUSTAINABILITY

Rodrigo Bastías Castillo rbastiasc@minvu.cl Ministry of Housing and Urban Development. Housing and Urban Studies Commission. Urban Observatory.

Sergio León Balza sleon@minvu.cl Ministry of Housing and Urban Development. Housing and Urban Studies Commission. Urban Observatory.

IAOS-SCORUS Conference, Santiago. Chile. 20-22 October 2010

The International Network for Urban and Regional Statistics

Standing Committee of the International Association for Official Statistics

The importance of measuring land demand

• This measurement is used to monitor city growth and the distribution of different types of land use, as well as for observing the economic dynamics associated with different land uses and, at the same time, analyzing the relationship between unoccupied and available land, with the possible impacts on valuable natural or agricultural production sites.

• This implies not only conducting statistical analyses, but also geographic analyses of the urban and potentially urban areas established in the Land Use Plans.

• This presentation will refer only to the statistical analysis of construction permits in cities and urban areas across different regions and municipalities.

How may land demand be measured by type of use?

• In 2005, the Urban Observatory began a geographical analysis of urban growth, using satellite images from 1993, 2003 and 2008. This allowed the institution to estimate the amount of occupied and unoccupied land without distinguishing the dynamic contributions of different land uses. Thus, Construction Statistics represent an interesting field of analysis.

• The calculation of land demand by reviewing construction permits refers to what may has been called “permissed land” in other publications on urban indicators , is only a preliminary approximation to this analysis. This paper includes information from the January 2003 - December 2009 period, at the country’s most basic administrative division: the municipality.

Methodological considerations for the estimation of “permissed” land

• The figures may refer to the net surface of urban land associated to construction permits, that is, they do not necessarily consider urban land that has been occupied through legal cessions authorized by the Municipal Constructions Department (DOM) such as streets and new open space. They do not include parks and geographical accidents (bodies of water and streams, hills, etc.) or their surrounding areas, which may be incorporated as urban land in the process of occupation.

• New apartment buildings tend to be built on previously occupied land, whereas land consumption associated to houses may imply new consumption.

• The database has registries with values that appear too high in relation to the square meters of land authorized for construction, originated by digitizing mistakes.

• For all these reasons, the information listed below was obtained by applying a series of filters, using the criteria that shall be described in the methodology .

• Finally, these figures were taken from the updated information from the first two months of each quarter, as well as provisional information from the third month .

Analysis of the 2003-2009 period: National situation

Urban permissed land 2003 - 2009: new and regularized land uses (ha)

Grouped land uses 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Average Standard Deviation

% of total

National total 1.631,0 3.192,8 2.847,0 3.330,6 3.194,9 3.103,1 2.674,8 19.974,1 2.853,4 584,2 100,0 Houses 1.196,0 2.042,9 1.673,5 1.791,8 1.896,5 1.667,9 1.515,9 11.784,4 1.683,5 274,6 59,0 Apartment buildings 4,2 19,9 28,4 38,6 58,2 48,8 62,5 260,4 37,2 21,1 1,3 Industry 38,9 200,6 472,8 707,1 453,8 723,0 316,1 2.912,5 416,1 252,4 14,6 Major Commerce 178,8 343,5 242,6 286,0 301,2 226,9 296,1 1.875,1 267,9 55,1 9,4 Minor Commerce 19,6 24,0 27,6 22,3 29,1 29,4 27,9 179,9 25,7 3,8 0,9 Financial facilities and offices

8,5 17,4 16,9 16,8 25,8 24,1 17,4 126,9 18,1 5,6 0,6

Preschool, primary and high school education 123,6 149,3 176,2 186,5 168,1 177,9 181,0 1.162,7 166,1 22,3 5,8 Higher education 2,8 239,2 74,9 161,4 105,1 48,0 55,3 686,7 98,1 79,5 3,4 Health 6,9 54,7 24,7 25,5 18,7 39,3 79,2 249,0 35,6 24,5 1,2 Communications, energy, transportation and storage

20,2 42,7 53,2 44,9 76,6 46,7 47,5 331,9 47,4 16,6 1,7

Public buildings, and personal and public services

20,6 43,7 39,1 28,5 34,1 29,1 26,5 221,6 31,7 7,9 1,1

Culture and entertainment 11,0 14,9 16,9 21,1 27,7 42,1 49,4 183,1 26,2 14,5 0,9 Source: based on INE Construction Statistics - MINVU

National situation Annual demand of Permissed Urban Land

New and regularized land uses

250 500 750

1.000 1.250 1.500 1.750 2.000 2.250 2.500 2.750 3.000 3.250 3.500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: based on INE Construction Statistics - MINVU

ha National total Houses Other land uses

Regional situation

Region 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Average

Standard Deviation

% of total

Country total 1.631,0 3.192,8 2.847,0 3.330,6 3.194,9 3.103,1 2.674,8 19.974,1 2.853,4 584,2 100,00Santiago Metropolitan Region (RM)

465,4 826,0 563,1 834,5 926,5 663,3 547,2 4.826,1 689,4 174,6 24,2

Biobío 244,2 535,3 658,1 807,5 701,7 578,4 651,8 4.177,0 596,7 178,3 20,9Valparaíso 169,0 283,2 248,4 319,8 298,4 608,0 306,7 2.233,4 319,1 137,2 11,2Los Lagos 138,4 336,5 358,2 248,0 246,4 280,0 291,5 1.899,1 271,3 72,0 9,5Araucanía 109,0 265,0 241,0 278,5 237,3 242,7 116,1 1.489,6 212,8 70,0 7,5O'Higgins 59,0 176,9 162,7 123,5 153,6 115,8 170,9 962,4 137,5 41,6 4,8Maule 57,9 142,4 127,6 61,9 164,0 203,5 161,4 918,7 131,2 54,1 4,6Antofagasta 47,3 103,1 234,8 123,3 134,6 69,4 50,9 763,5 109,1 65,1 3,8Coquimbo 61,9 171,1 83,3 174,4 93,5 93,1 82,2 759,4 108,5 45,1 3,8Atacama 233,0 56,3 44,9 145,1 62,0 60,2 72,2 673,7 96,2 68,8 3,4Los Ríos 24,8 146,9 66,1 135,4 40,8 93,2 87,7 594,8 85,0 45,4 3,0Aisén 10,9 33,4 22,7 18,0 34,8 44,7 92,1 256,6 36,7 27,0 1,3Magallanes 1,3 68,0 13,3 37,1 47,1 26,3 8,4 201,5 28,8 23,7 1,0Tarapacá 4,7 25,2 4,7 9,0 29,9 18,1 21,8 113,4 16,2 10,2 0,6Arica y Parinacota 4,2 23,5 18,2 14,7 24,2 6,4 13,8 105,0 15,0 7,7 0,5Source: based on Edification Statistics INE - MINVU

Urban permissed land 2003 - 2009: new and regularized land uses (ha)

Annual demand for Permissed Urban Land

Selected Regions

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: based on INE Construction Statistics - MINVU

ha Santiago Metropolitan Region Bio-Bío Valparaíso Los Lagos Araucanía

Land surface with construction permits in Regional Capital Cities

City 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total AverageStandard Deviation

% of Total

Total 924,1 2.007,2 1.624,6 1.928,7 1.954,0 1.474,7 1.532,5 11.446,0 1.635,1 380,4 100,0Santiago 377,0 789,7 524,2 810,9 885,4 595,6 500,8 4.483,6 640,5 189,6 39,2Concepción 120,8 291,0 296,6 316,6 403,1 226,1 386,3 2.040,4 291,5 96,2 17,8Puerto Montt 77,4 188,2 257,4 114,3 103,6 158,6 93,7 993,2 141,9 63,9 8,7Valparaíso 34,7 125,5 91,5 97,5 125,9 75,8 108,2 659,1 94,2 31,8 5,8Coquimbo 22,1 135,4 49,4 104,0 63,3 65,1 70,8 510,2 72,9 36,9 4,5Copiapó 214,7 36,6 16,4 108,3 37,7 44,4 44,6 502,8 71,8 69,2 4,4Temuco 16,9 45,4 88,2 104,2 77,0 87,2 26,6 445,6 63,7 33,8 3,9Rancagua 11,5 101,3 88,9 50,6 48,3 41,5 56,1 398,2 56,9 30,0 3,5Valdivia 2,2 112,8 29,4 94,7 20,8 58,9 63,2 382,0 54,6 40,0 3,3Antofagasta 26,7 45,1 105,8 39,1 37,6 20,3 27,8 302,4 43,2 28,9 2,6Talca 8,7 21,1 29,8 22,8 42,8 42,5 29,0 196,7 28,1 12,1 1,7Punta Arenas 1,3 66,3 11,6 36,8 39,8 16,3 6,0 178,0 25,4 23,2 1,6Coihaique 1,6 15,3 13,3 8,2 15,9 19,6 86,7 160,6 22,9 28,7 1,4Arica 4,2 23,4 18,2 14,6 24,2 6,4 13,7 104,7 15,0 7,7 0,9Iquique 4,3 10,1 3,9 6,2 28,6 16,3 18,9 88,3 12,6 9,1 0,8

Urban permissed land in capital cities 2003 - 2009: new and regularized land uses (ha)

Estimated errors and Restrictions for analysis

• Underestimation. Repeated construction permits: association of several land uses to a single plot of permissed land: On average, each year around 6% of all permits are thus “repeated”. Since no criteria have been established for selecting one of these multiple land uses over another these repeated permits are not accounted when estimating the demand of permissed land.

• Overestimation. Repeated entries of permissed land surface for different permits of the same land use: These occur mainly in the “Houses” and “Industry” land uses and, to a lesser degree, in the “Commerce” land use group.

Methodology

• This database includes 46 land uses, traditionally organized into three large groups: Housing (which includes 12 different uses of houses and apartment buildings); Industry, Commerce and Financial Establishments (which includes 15 uses); and Services (which includes 19 uses).

• In order to generate a more precise analysis of urban construction authorizations –and their diverse impacts on land occupation in each region, city and municipality– the database has been organized into twelve (12) large land use groups.

Obtaining the twelve land use groups and applying site surface filters

Three key steps were followed:

1. Extracting non-urban land uses: “Agricultural Industry,” “Fishing” and “Mines and Quarries.” After this step, the remaining land uses are organized into the 12 groups mentioned.

2. Selecting the permits for the urban area. This step eliminates approximately 50% of all construction permits to be analyzed.

3. Selecting permits for “New Constructions” and “Regularization of New Constructions”, but not “Extensions” and “Regularization of extensions,” since these take place on plots that already count with permits.

Analyzed land uses

Grouped land uses CodesUrban land surface filters applied to

land use groups

Houses 101 to 103 One house: up to 5,000 m2

Two or more houses: up to 200 ha

Apartment buildings 104 to 112104 to 106: up to 1.2 ha

107 to 112 (four or more building blocks) : up to 10 ha

Industry 500 Up to 150 haFinancial facilities and offices 700 and 804 Up to 1.2 haMajor commerce 600, 601 and 604 Up to 35 haMinor commerce 602, 603 Up to 1.2 haCommunications, energy, transportation and storage 800 to 803 Up to 1.2 haPreschool, primary and high school education 900 to 903 Up to 23 haHigher education 904 to 906 Up to 61 haHealth 1000 Up to 35 haPublic buildings, and personal and public services 1100, 1200, and 1500 to 1700 Up to 1.2 ha

Culture and entertainment 1300 and 1400 Up to 1.2 haSource: based on INE Construction Statistics - MINVU

Grouped land usesTotal permits in non-filtered files

Total permits in filtered files % Difference

Houses 80.256 76.721 4,4Departments 592 559 5,6Industry 1.456 1.456 0,0Financial facilities and offices 1.134 1.067 5,9Major commerce 6.091 6.088 0,0Minor commerce 1.987 1.916 3,6Communications, energy, transportation and storage 2.100 1.890 10,0Preschool, primary and high school education 2.668 2.663 0,2Higher education 199 197 1,0Health 445 445 0,0Public buildings, and personal and public services 1.885 1.767 6,3Culture and entertainment 1.453 1.216 16,3

Percentage of permits excluded after the application of filters

Final comments• Although it may be necessary to review the methodology

for the analysis of plot sizes associated with specific land uses, the methodological process generated data that has been found acceptable by urban development experts. This in itself is a substantial achievement.

• It could be recommended to define a series of indicators, such as those established by the Urban Audit , for example, – the proportion of different land uses as part of total land;– occupied and unoccupied urban land, and – occupation rates for different land uses, among others.

• We could also take advantage of the available geographical information systems to calibrate the precision of the information extracted from Construction Statistics.