CALI FO RN IA AIR RESOURCES BOARD

A Vision for Minimizing Real-World

Emissions in the On-Road Sectors

November 15, 2018

Sacramento, CA

After 50 years of standards, mobile source

emissions still significant share of inventory

South Coast Air Basin NOx California GHG Emissions (2017)

Electric Power 16%

Emissions (2017) All Other Recycling and Waste Transportation

Mobile

Sources

~35%

3%AreawideMobile 7%4% Other

Sources

>80%

High GWP Stationary Mobile 5%13%

Sources 30%

Light-Duty Industrial Vehicles 21%

29% Light-Duty Vehicles

18%

Heavy-Duty Vehicles Agriculture

35% 9% Residential & Commercial 10%

Mobile sources represent ~50% of GHG inventory when

including emissions from fuel production 2

600

~500 «s 'C L.

~400

Current Programs

§ 300 L----------~~~ .... -J --(/)

~ 200 -1---------------, (/) (/)

.E 100 +--------------~ w >< 0 0 -!.--------,----------,-~ z

2010 2015 2020

-<l)

N

§ ~ ~ -"' C .2 "' .!:!? E UJ c., :::t: c.,

600

500

------------ .....L 400 -

1990 Level

300

200

100

0 l

2010 2015 2020

Current programs have achieved significant

reductions GHGs, Statewide, All SourcesNOx, South Coast, All Sources

3

Certification

Reductions Achieved via

Many Individual Elements

Certification

Early Vehicle Life Mid-Vehicle Life Late Vehicle

Life

▪ Design Review

▪ Emission data

▪ Durability data

▪ OBD

▪ AECDs

▪ Warranty

▪ Manufacturer Testing: Assembly line, IUVP, HDIUT, OBD PVE/MST

▪ CARB Testing: IUCP, HD NTE, OBD confirmatory testing

▪ Warranty Reporting

▪ Manufacturer Testing: IUVP, OBD MST

▪ CARB Testing: HD NTE

▪ Inspection/ Maintenance: Smog Check, HDVIP, PSIP

▪ Inspection/ CARB Testing

Maintenance: Smog Check, HDVIP, ▪ Research/Lab Studies

PSIP ▪ PEMS on-road

▪ CARB Testing: ▪ Tunnel/Remote Sensing EMFAC, Smog Check Support

▪ Data Logging

▪ Fleet turnover: ▪ Ambient Air Quality

Truck & Bus rule, ▪ Regulatory Development incentives

4

NOx, South Coast, All Sources

600 ,------------------

~500 _,_______,..,__ _____________ ________, "O

ai c..400 +---____:~ -------------I 1/) C: 0

;-300 +------------"'""'-:-----------I C: .2 -~ 200 +-----:=:=--.,...-----,-..--,.,..-- ..,....:.,,....::~~--- _.j E w

0100 z

2031 South Coast Target ~ 0 +-----~-----------~

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GHGs, Statewide, All Sources

600 ,----------------

~ 500 +---------------(!) N ,-. ...

~ 400 +---LS.~--.... ==--~~~. ~ 1990 Level : ~ 300 +------------'W----------■• 0 ■

1 : ~ 200 +----------'---'-=.........C'-<lll..LJ....L _ _.:

~ t (.? 1oo +-------------"'E=x_,_,,e'"""c'----O=.,_r=d=e,_r ---... ...

80% Reduction o +----------------2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

But we still need more

• South Coast Ozone

• San Joaquin Valley PM & Ozone • Statewide GHGs

5

rnlur

0 naro Thousond Otaks

S1mf Valley

Legend

SB 535 Disadvantaged Communities

AB 1550 Low-Income Communities

SB 535 Disadvantaged Communmes and AB 1550 Low­Income Communities

AB 1550 Low-income c ommunmes within a 112 mile of a SB 535 Disadvantaged Community

SantJ U or,1.c.;:i

,Ve$t I tt•,nt.- Ccr...!n.1

Los Angeles .

L• ng Beact

Huntington Beach

PoffiX\J

SMtaAna

., .ange

Ranchu Cucam•fHh1

>otari

Roncho Sont :::i

hr..e rslr.le

fl.•L.,1g,;1nt~ '4'

Sot,_ •1, ANA •AWrlTAtNS -------.....

..... N 11Jn

.., I

Yucaipa

II •---n,ti.-r,-<'l:)l - D>Mtl

- ,))).IOIO --

And in the most critical areas Environmental Justice communities are widespread

Mobile Source Emissions overlay these vulnerable populations

Ozone Diesel PM Air Toxics Risk

6

2.0

'L" I 8 .c . a.1.6 .c :e 1.4 ~1.2 Ill a 1.0 :~ 0.8

~ 0.6

0 0.4 Z 0.2

0.0 kJ u...J.lh.JJ.-I 2 3 4 S 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 IS 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3435 36 37

3 ~ ---------------Actual

"' § 2.5 (up to 2 5x higher)

-., "' E ., ] +-+-----~ =------------~ "' 'o 8 1.5 __Expec.1ed

B

-! 1 + -J--,-------------=-

~ qi o. 0.5 ff----------------.,,, '5 :::;;

0 _ ........ _ ........ _ ........ _ ........ _ ........ _ ........ _ ........ _~

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Soak Time (min)

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. -· - - ' -- - . ' -- - --- - . . - . - '

Volkswagen Pleads Guilty to Criminal Charges in Emissions-Cheatincr Scandal

And we need to do better… Some are still not performing as expected

Light-duty NOx emissions at start Heavy-duty NOx emissions on highway

7

Expected NOx level

00,000.000

35,000.000

30,000.000

g 25,000.000 j :, C.

! 20,000.000 JI 3 i Ill 1s,ooo,ooo

10,000.000

5,000,000

2010 2015 2020

~ 1 i t .. X r .. X

0 C s i; 'S 0. 0 .. ;; ~ C C C

2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2050

Calendar Year

500

4SO

400

)SO

300

1 , j

2SO

200

ISO

100

so

0

2010 2015 2020 2025 20l0 2035

t.ow-Nll,bfA~ UStN."'-ellHO

2040

....

200 20SO

How do we do more? Electrification is ultimate solution but

Combustion Engines still dominant for decades

2016 LD Scenario to meet targets 2016 HD Scenario to meet targets

Combustion

Engines:

~90% of fleet Combustion

Engines:

~60% of fleet

https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2016sip/2016mobsrc.htm 8

+ V

How do we do better? Focus on Real World Emission Performance

Broaden Coverage

Increased Transparency

Robust Real World Emission

Performance

Optimal emission

control under all

operation & usage

Monitor actual emission

performance on all

vehicles

Maximize benefits

for public health

9

Ii

□

□

•

•

•

Game Plan

Already Implemented:

• Refocus Actions within Existing Programs

Next Steps:

• Re-design Standards and In-Use Programs

Longer Term:

• Leverage New Technology and Data

10

Enhanced Design Review

Strengthened Warranty

Defeat Device Testing

Increased Testing

LDV CO2 On-Vehicle Data

Remote Sensing

Examples:

Already Implemented

Broaden Coverage

Increased Transparency

Enhanced Design Review

Strengthened Warranty

Defeat Device Testing

Increased Testing

LDV CO2 On-Vehicle Data

Remote Sensing

11

Next steps: Regulatory Schedule

12

Advanced Clean

Cars II

(ZEV, GHG, Criteria)

Light-duty

Heavy-duty

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

HD Omnibus

Low NOx Standard

Expanded Test Cycles

In-Use Compliance

Warranty & Reporting Opacity

Inspection

HD OBD

updates

Warranty

Strengthening

Innovative

Clean Transit

ZEV

Procedures

OBD II

update

Ongoing Truck &

Bus Fleet Turnover

(by 2023)

EPA HD

NOx

NPRM?

Next Steps: Expanding Testing

• New Southern California

Laboratory

• Increased HD and LD labs

• On-road PEMS & OBD testing

Scheduled for

2021 opening

13

Next steps: REAL Concept Real Emissions Assessment Logging

Require vehicles to track emission performance

Add software to store aggregated data on vehicle

Start with existing sensors

Accuracy of on-board NOx sensors already within 15%

Fuel usage (to infer CO2 emissions) already even more accurate

Potential benefits:

Comprehensive feedback

More efficient than laboratory or PEMS testing

Future standards linked to on-road performance

14

Longer term: Future Strategy Direction

• Further expand coverage with vehicle data

• Enabling focused actions to achieve needed emission

reductions

• Adapt to technology and societal usage changes

• Transfer technology to other Mobile Source sectors

15

CALI FO RN IA AIR RESOURCES BOARD

A Vision for Minimizing Real-World

Emissions in the On-Road Sectors

END