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The need for a The need for a
””Spectrum of conflict”
French Doctrine
Spectrum of conflict
NATO Doctrine
Spectrum of conflict
British defence doctrine 2008
British defence doctrine 2008
High intensity
”Total war” Crisis
Collaps of society
Low intensity
”Limited war”
Building society
Importance
Maneuvre warfare
Comprehensive approach
MSD 02 MSD 12
Military victory Civilian developement
Regular warfare Irregular warfare
The new Swedish military strategic doctrine will incooperate a wide spectrum of conflict
The Swedish spectrum of conflictThe Swedish spectrum of conflict
to handle regular war, crisis, irregular war etcto handle regular war, crisis, irregular war etc
Purpose: Understand the conflict in order to apply military power in the right way
A presentation of
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Swedish spectrum of conflict
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Regular war ”Cold war”
Stability by balance of power
Character
Military crisis
Instability
Failing stateIrregular war
Hybride war
Humanitarian crisis
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
CrisisUSSR sub 81
Kosovo now
Northern AfghanistanSouthern
Aghanistan
W W 2Korea after
the war
Somalia Central-African Republic ?
Bosnia 93
Lebanon 2006
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios
Non-cooperative Co-operative
States
I. Multipolar• great powers and power blocs• economic and political rivalry• protectionism
III. Fragmentation• globalisation stagnates• social insecurity• identity plays key role
II. Multilateral • strong position of the West alongside emergence of BRIC• global governance reformed• ongoing globalisation
IV. Network• non-polar world order• global market economy and civil society• inherent unpredictability
Various actors
This picture is from the Netherlands long term planning studies
Guerilla Phase 1
Guerilla war phase 2
Guerilla war phase 3
To describe a conflict
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Deter
Influence
Purposes for use of military power
Defend
Defeat
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Coerce
Coerce
Coerce
Full Spectrum Operations
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Perfect ! OK !
Maybe… ? Useless ?
Stealth robot corvette Visby
Full Spectrum Operations
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Perfect ! OK !
Maybe……. Useless ?
Full Spectrum Operations
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Intel
Fires Mobility
Sustainment
C2Protection
Intel
Fires Mobility
Sustainment
C2Protection
Intel
Fires Mobility
Sustainment
C2Protection
Intel
Fires Mobility
Sustainment
C2Protection
Doctrine and conceptual thinking in building armed forces
France Germany
Char B1 Mark II
Firepower and protection Maneuvreability
May 1940
Linear doctrine of attrition Non-linear maneuvre doctrine
Heavy and slow Agile and fast short range / thirsty Long range / can be filled with cans
Propulsion is given priority
Full Spectrum Operations
Off Def Def Off Def
Off DefStab
OffDef
Stab
Off
DefStab
Clear Hold Build
o
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
Maneuvre warfare Diplomacy and show of force
Comprehensive Approach
Methods
Endure attrition
CLEAR – HOLD – BUILD ?
Regular war
High state involvement (state on state)
Irregular war
Low involvement from state (stateless)
Permissive environment
Low intense violence
Non permissive environment
Intense violence
DiscussionDiscussion
Does Georgia have a spectrum of conflict ?Does Georgia have a spectrum of conflict ?
How do you feel about the Swedish spectrum of conflict ? How do you feel about the Swedish spectrum of conflict ?
Why is it important to understand the spectrum of conflict ?Why is it important to understand the spectrum of conflict ?
Where in the spectrum would you place: Where in the spectrum would you place:
- 2008 conflict with Russia ?- 2008 conflict with Russia ?
- Todays relation to Russia ?- Todays relation to Russia ?
- Your involment in Afghanistan ?- Your involment in Afghanistan ?
