The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

  • View
    535

  • Download
    4

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

 

Text of The North American Truckload Marketplace @ YE2009

  • 1. Select Views of the North American Truckload Freight Transportation Marketplace,Past & Present Including Its Key* TL and Dedicated Service Participants.*Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., and U.S. Xpress Enterprises, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available.Thom A. Williams, managing director March 27, 2010

2. The Changing Times: The Good: The Bad: Vs. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC 3. And The Ugly: AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC 4. Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues,Carrier TruckloadCH RobinsonRevenues,2006 thru 2009 (Excluding Fuel Surcharges): Trucking Revenues,US$s in thousands US$s in thousands $2,600,000$6,000,000 $2,400,000$5,500,000 $2,200,000$5,000,000 $2,000,000 Despite that it neither owns trucks nor operates as a Contract Carrier, CHRW generates TL But the real truckers are yet$4,500,000 $1,800,000revenues equaling Swift, WERN, LSTR and JBHT another story: Seldom have combined! E.g.: ~$6.1 bil. in '08; $5.2 bil. in '09. so many worked so long,and driven so many miles,$4,000,000 $1,600,000to accomplish little morethan staying alive!$3,500,000 $1,400,000$3,000,000 $1,200,000 CAUSE FOR CONCERN: $2,500,000 $1,000,000 Major shippers' growing adoptions of truckload freight transportation procurement, spend optimization, andmanaged bidding program software packages and related services (from Manugistics, LeanLogistics, Manhattan$800,000Associates, and others) increasingly challenge TL carriers' revenue and profit growth prospects. $2,000,000 $600,000 $1,500,000 $400,000 $1,000,000 $200,000 $500,000 $0 $020062007 20082009FrozenFood P.A.M. USA Truck MartenUniversal CeladonHeartlandRyder-DCC est. CovenantCon-way KnightTransForceJ.B. HuntLandstar WernerSwift CH Robinson Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLCSource Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 5. Leading Carriers' Truckload Revenues,Carrier TruckloadRevenues,2006 thru 2009 (Including Fuel Surcharges): Avg. On-road DieselUS$s in thousands Price, US$s/gal. $3,200,000 $4.000 $3,000,000 $3.807 $2,800,000 $3.500 $2,600,000 $2,400,000 $3.000 $2,200,000 $2.882$2,000,000$2.705 $2.500$2.467 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $2.000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1.500 $1,000,000$800,000$1.000$600,000$400,000$0.500$200,000$0$0.0002006 2007 20082009FrozenFoodP.A.M. USATrk.UniversalMartenHeartlandRyder - DCCCeladonCovenantCon-wayKnight TransForceJ.B.HuntLandstar Werner SwiftNational avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLCSource Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company and DOE reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 6. Leading Carriers' Total Truckload Miles: Total miles drivenCass Freight Indexre: Shipment Volumes(loaded + empty)(Jan. 1990 = 1.00)in thousands 1.40 1,800,0001,600,000 1.301.2781.249Swift1,400,000 1.20 1,200,0001.101.100 1,000,0001.00 To understand why truckload freight movements and truckers' miles declined so harshly, Werner according to the new and ingenious Ceridian-UCLA "PCI Index," we need only look to the 800,000 three components of GDP (goods, services, and structures). Services comprise 63% of GDP and never seem to decline. The volatility lies in Goods and Structures the 37% of GDP that 0.920 0.90 gets loaded onto and transported via trucks. When we stopped building and remodeling and consumers ceased buying durable goods, 600,000truckload freight assignments "fell off the cliff." 0.80400,000CovenantKnightCeladonCon-way P.A.M. 0.70200,000 USA TruckMarten 0.60 020062007 20082009 Swift Werner Covenant Knight Celadon Con-wayP.A.M. USA Truck MartenCassFreightIndex - Shipments Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLCSource Data: SEC Forms 10-K, Cass Info Systems, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 7. YE 2006 Truckload Carriers' Relative Marketshares How these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$12.0 billion of '06 truckload revenues (FSC excluded): Marten USA Truck P.A.M. FrozenFood Con-wayCeladon 3% 3%3%2% 1% Universal3%4%Ryder-DCCest. 4%Swift21% Heartland, 4%Knight, 5% Covenant, 5%J.B. HuntTransForce13%5% Landstar Werner11%13%SwiftJ.B. Hunt WernerLandstarTransForce CovenantKnight HeartlandRyder-DCC est. Universal Celadon MartenUSA TruckP.A.M.FrozenFood Con-way Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31.U.S. Express Enterprises Inc. (XPRSA) was publicly held throughout 2006 and then generated ~$1.2 billion of TL and Dedicated trucking revenues (FSC excluded). XPRSA was privatized during 2007 via a deal in which Max Fuller and Pat Quinn paid ~$192 million cash to shareholders for the ~9.5 million XPRSA common shares not owned by Fuller & Quinn. Subsequent details of XPRSA are thus unavailable. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLCSource Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 8. 2009 Truckload Carriers' Relative MarketsharesHow these 16 leading carriers divided ~US$10.3 billion of '09 truckload revenues (FSC excluded): As to relative market shares of base revenues, little, if anything, haschanged in the three years since YE 2006! In May 2007, Jerry Moyes, Universal P.A.M. et al., privatized the Marten USA Truck FrozenFood3%2%3% 3% 2%publicly-held Swift, by Celadon 4%paying $1.52 billion for the Heartland4%61.7% of SWFT's Swiftoutstanding shares not Ryder-DCC 20%owned by Moyes. By YE est. 4%'07 Swift had recorded~$258 million of goodwillCovenant, 5%& other asset impairmentcharges as to that deal. Con-way, 5%Werner Knight 12%5%TransForce6% J.B. HuntLandstar11% 11% Only JBHT evidences significant progress with intentional downsizing of its standard truckload CNW acquired TL carrier CFI during operations, successfully opting to focus on the more- August 2007 for ~$752 million. CFI profitable itermodal and other alternatives. disclosed '06 revenues of ~$427 million. During '09 CNW recorded a CFI-related goodwill impairment charge of ~$135 million as to that purchase.SwiftWerner LandstarJ.B. HuntTransForce KnightCon-wayCovenant Ryder-DCC est. HeartlandCeladon Marten USA TruckUniversal P.A.M. FrozenFoodFiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLCSource Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 9. Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes Truckload Operating Incomes, (after Goodwill impairment charges) , 2006 thru 2009 US$s in thousands $220,000 $170,000 $120,000 Swift, $120,317 Werner, $84,524$70,000Knight, $79,680Heartland, $78,964JBHT, $51,442$20,0002006 20072008 2009 ($30,000)Covenant-$55,679 ($80,000)Con-way-$106,971Swift-$126,386 ($130,000) FrozenFood est. P.A.M.USATrk. est.Covenant est. Universal est. CeladonTransForceCon-way est.MartenRyder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.HuntHeartlandKnight est.WernerSwift est.Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLCSource Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 10. Leading Carriers' Truckload Operating Incomes Truckload Operating Incomes,(excluding Goodwill impairment charges), 2006 vs. 2009 US$s in thousands $220,000 $170,000 $120,000 SwiftWerner HeartlandKnight$70,000 TransForceJ.B.HuntMartenLandstar est.Ryder-DCC CeladonCovenantUniversalCon-way$20,0002006 2009 USATrk. FrozenFood P.A.M. ($30,000) FrozenFood est. P.A.M.USATrk. est.Universal est. Covenant est.CeladonTransForce MartenCon-way est.Ryder - DCC Landstar est. J.B.Hunt HeartlandKnight est.Werner Swift est.Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 11. Leading Carriers' TL Revenues (inc. FSC) Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles):Revenue per totalAvg. On-road Dieselmile, US$sPrice, US$s/gal. $2.00 $4.000$3.807$3.500 $2.882$3.000$2.705 $1.75 $2.467 $2.500Marten$1.72$2.000 Werner, $1.64 FrozenFood, $1.58Swift, $1.57 $1.500Celadon, $1.54 $1.50 USA Truck, $1.52Con-way, $1.48Might this be a textbook display of Swarm Intelligence? $1.000Covenant, $1.45These leading, and many lesser, truckers incessantly bid against each other, and themselves, in well-executed bidding programsP.A.M., $1.43orchestrated by major shippers, yet not one within the swarm ofmajor truckload carriers invites multiple shippers to open bidding $0.500 for the carrier's available capacity.Perhaps they should experiment on eBay! $1.25 $0.000 2006 2007 20082009 P.A.M.Covenant Con-way USA Truck CeladonSwift FrozenFoodWerner Marten National avg.$/gal. diesel fuel price Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders.Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 12. Leading Carriers' TL Operating Incomes (excluding Goodwill impairment charges), Opr. Income per Per Total Mile (Loaded + Empty Miles): total mile, US$s $0.340$0.320Knight $0.300 $0.323$0.280$0.260$0.240$0.220Knight $0.200$0.220 $0.180$0.160 Werner, $0.153 $0.140 Marten, $0.138 Marten, $0.099 Swift, $0.132Werner, $0.097 $0.120 P.A.M.$0.128Swift, $0.081 $0.100 Con-way, $0.073 Celadon, $0.108 Celadon, $0.031 $0.080USA Covenant, $0.009 $0.060Truck $0.089 $0.040$0.020 Covenant, $0.023 $0.000 2006200720082009 -$0.020 USA Truck, -$0.031 Covenant, -$0.028 -$0.040-$0.060-$0.080Covenant, -$0.085 P.A.M., -$0.095 -$0.100P.A.M.USA TruckCovenant CeladonCon-way SwiftWerner Marten Knight Fiscal YE June 30th for Celadon; all others are YE Dec. 31. Note: Certain carriers do not report mileage details to their shareholders. 2010, AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K, company reports, and AmherstAlpha data extrapolations. 13. Leading Carriers' Truckload Avg. Revenues