The Outlook for Energy - Colorado Mesa University...ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead

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The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends

through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the

International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2015. This presentation includes forward looking

statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across

sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in

economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other

factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at

www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights

reserved.

The Outlook

for Energy:A View to 2040

Chad HarrisApril 21, 2016

2

ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

Global Trends Continue to Evolve

GDP

PopulationDemand

Carbon Emissions

Percent

Growth from 2014 Level

3


Key Energy Outlook Themes

Energy is fundamental to standards of living.

Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards.

Oi l remains the world’s primary fuel through 2040.

Natural gas grows more than any other energy source.

Economics and policies impact the fuel mix.

Technology has the highest potential and greatest

uncertainty.

4

Energy is fundamental

to standards of living.

5

“Children cannot study in the dark.

Girls and women cannot learn or be

productive when they spend hours a

day collecting firewood. Businesses and

economies cannot grow without power.”

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon

United Nations Foundation

6


Energy Fuels Human Development

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

10 100 1000 10000

U.N. Human Development Index

2013 Index

Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates

Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)

NorwayUnited States

Brazil

Germany

Niger

India

China

Nigeria

Bangladesh

7

Developing nations lead

in GDP growth and living

standard improvements.

8


Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations

2014

$72 Trillion (2010$)

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

Brazil

Mexico

South

Africa

Nigeria

Saudi

Arabia

Indonesia

Thailand

Egypt

China

India

Turkey

Iran

OECD*China

India

Key

Growth

Rest of

World

9


Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations

2014

2040

$72 Trillion (2010$)

~$150 Trillion (2010$)


2.0%

per year

5.0%

5.5%

3.5%

3.4%

OECD*China

India

Key

Growth

Rest of

World

10


Middle Class and Urbanization Increase

Global Middle Class

Billion People

0

25

50

75

100

1980 2000 2020 2040

Urbanization

Percent

OECD*

ChinaIndonesia

Turkey

India

0

1

2

3

4

5

'14 '30

China

India

Key Growth

Rest of World

OECD*

Source: The Brookings Institution


Source: United Nations

11


Demand Growth From Developing Nations

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

0

200

400

600

800

2000 2020 2040


OECD*

Key Growth

China

India

Rest of World

12

Oil remains the world’s

primary fuel through

2040.

13


Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth

0

25

50

75

Transportation Industrial Res/Comm ElectricityGeneration

Liquids Demand by Sector

MBDOE

Chemical

‘10

‘25

‘40

14


0

25

50

75

2000 2020 2040

Sector Demand

MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

Commercial

15


Global Fuel Economy Standards (2008)

Policy in Place

Standards

Policy Evolving

16


Global Fuel Economy Standards (2014)

Policy in Place

Standards

Policy Evolving

17


High Efficiency

High Cost

Range/Charging Limit

Lower Cost

Convenience

Improving Efficiency

Global Vehicle Fleet

0

500

1000

1500

2000

'10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40

Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell

Hybrid

Natural Gas & LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

By Type

Million Cars

Hybrid

Internal Combustion

EngineElectric

Public Transport

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Natural Gas & LPG

18


0

40

80

120

2000 2020 2040

Liquids Production

By Region

MBDOE

Other NonOPEC

North America

Russia

0

10

20

30

40

OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other

By Type

MBDOE

‘10

‘25‘40

OPEC

Conventional

Crude and Condensate

19


0

10

20

30

Liquids Trade Balance by Region

North

America

MBDOE

Other

Natural Gas Liquids

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Conventional Crude & Condensate

Demand

0

10

20

30

0

10

20

30

0

10

20

30

‘10 ‘30‘20 ‘40‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40

20


0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

Liquids Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

MBDOE

Natural Gas Liquids

Other

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Conventional Crude & Condensate

Demand

‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20

21

Natural gas grows

more than any other

energy source.

22


Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors

0

50

100

150

200

250

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Res/Comm Transportation

Gas Demand by Sector

BCFD

‘10

‘25

‘40

23


0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 2010 2040

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Electricity Demand by Region

Thousand TWh

United States

India

Europe OECD

China

Key Growth

2014

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

Transportation

Industrial

Res/Comm

By Sector

Thousand TWh

24


U.S. Changing Electricity Generation Fuel Mix

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2025 2040-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

'15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40

Growth versus 2014 by Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity Generation CO2 Emissions

Billion Tons

0

10

20

30

40

2010 2025 2040

Electricity GenerationQuadrillion BTUs

Coal

Wind & Solar

Other Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

25


0

200

400

600

2000 2020 2040

Natural Gas Supply

0

200

400

600

2000 2020 2040

By Delivery Type

BCFD

Unconventional

Conventional

By Production Type

BCFD

Pipeline

Net Local Production

LNG

26


0000000

30

60

90

120

150

180

Gas Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

BCFD

‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20

Demand

Unconventional Production

Conventional Production

27

Economics and

policies impact the fuel

mix.

28

“Every country finds itself at a different

point in the development journey.

Therefore, the pace and rhythm of their

emissions reductions and investments

in adaptation will vary.”

President Jim Yong Kim

World Bank Group

29

“We believe the risks of climate change

are serious and warrant thoughtful

action.”

Rex Tillerson, CEO

Exxon Mobil Corporation

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~ 35 $/ton

~ 20 $/ton

~ 80 $/ton

< 10 $/ton

2040 CO2 “Proxy” Cost

CO2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region

31


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2014 20400

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region

Billion Tonnes

CO2 Emissions PlateauEnergy Mix Shifts to Lower-Carbon Fuels

India

Key Growth

Rest of World

OECD*

China

Global Energy Mix

Percent

Oil

Coal

Gas

Biomass

Renewables

Nuclear


32

“The only reason I’m optimistic about

this problem is because of innovation.”

Bill Gates

The Atlantic, Nov. 2015

33

Technology has the

highest potential and

greatest uncertainty.

34


0

5

10

15

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Technology Helps Us Do More With Less

Global Average Energy Intensity

Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (2010$)

2014

35


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix

Global Mix of Fuels

1850 1900 20001950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

2040

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

Unconventional Gas

Deepwater, Oil

Sands, Tight Oil

36


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind/ Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

Global Demand

2040 By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2014 - 2040

0.9%2014

0.7%

1.6%

2.9%0.3%

4.8% 1.3%

-0.2%

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exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook

or download the ExxonMobil app

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0

10

20

30

40

'00 '10 '20 '30 '40

Fuel for Electricity Transitions

Electricity Delivered by Type

Thousand TWh

0

10

20

30

40

'00 '10 '20 '30 '40

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas

OECD

Documents

The Outlook for Energy - Colorado Mesa University...ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead