The Perfect Storm?How do Ports Plan for the Future?

Congestion

Freight Growth Constrained

Infrastructure

Jeannie Beckett, Sr. Dir. Inland Transportation, Port of TacomaTalking Freight Seminar, June 16,2004

Steps in the Planning Process

Strategic Business Plans Trend Forecasts Land Use Planning Capacity Studies Planning for the Future

Strategic Business Planning What is your Vision

and Mission? What is your core

competencies? Where are your

Growth potentials? Current Customers New Customers New Line of

Business New ideas

Forecasts World Cargo

Trends US Trends State Forecasts Individual Port

Cargo Forecasts

Issues Are Systemic

Studied 10 major international ports Handle 66% of all containers moving in

and out of the country All face similar congestion-related

problems: Sited in dense urban areas Limited ability to expand rail yards, roadways

and other infrastructure New security controls may exacerbate

congestion by drastically slowing movement of goods

According to GAO’s 12/03 Freight Transportation Study…

Issues Are Systemic Freight movement projects receive

limited visibility during planning and prioritization

Limitations of federal funding for multimodal projects – single mode focus

No comprehensive evaluation approach to implement most effective projects

According to GAO’s 12/03 Freight Transportation Study

Trends Effecting US Ports

Port Land Use Planning What do You want to look like when You grow

up?

Terminal Waterways Roads Rail

Looking inside your Port

Forecast of Cargo Opportunities at the Port of Tacoma

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Intl Container- Baseline Intl Container-Forecast 1Domestic Container LogsAutos-Baseline Autos-Forecast1Breakbulk Dry Bulk

Actual Forecast

Potential Uses of Tideflats

Widened Waterway At Hyundai WharfWidened Waterway At Hyundai Wharf

732 Ft732 Ft 17 Wide17 Wide 20 Wide20 Wide 17 Wide17 Wide749 Ft749 Ft 18 Wide18 Wide 20 Wide20 Wide 18 Wide18 Wide790 Ft790 Ft 18 Wide18 Wide 22 Wide22 Wide 18 Wide18 Wide850 Ft850 Ft 22 Wide22 Wide 22 Wide22 Wide 22 Wide22 Wide

Waterway Improvements Summary - Blair 2005

Road Network Summary 2005

Rail Expansion Summary 2005

Capacity Studies

Road Rail

Looking Outside the PortThe Last Mile Getting your cargo to Final Destination

Freight Transportation – the future

Where will the needed capacity come from?

Who will pay for it? Who will Benefit? How will “Benefit”

calculations be determined?

Planning for the FutureHow Do We Ensure System Fluidity?

Planning for things we can’t control or influence

Planning for things we can control or influence

Things We Can’t Control or Influence

Mode shifts – all indicators point to more intermodal, less road freight

Longer trains – five years ago, 6,000 ft; near future, 8,000 ft;

Manufacturing trends – China is hot now, but will inevitably cool down; where will manufacturing go?

Transloading and Distribution Centers

Things We Can Control or Influence

Operational methods Local rail network capacity and

configurations Entering new or changed market

sectors Legislative intervention, assistance

and regulatory relaxation Focused funding, new Public Private

Partnerships

Planning For The Future From a Rail industry perspective:

Railroads focus on long end-to-end movements; great for primary markets, not so good for non-end markets

Inland ports, logistics centers, intermodal facilities are the current buzz

“Feeding the beast” takes priority on the West Coast

Freight is cool again, but not in urban areas

Planning For The Future From a Rail industry perspective:

Rolling stock, crew resources, capacity all in high demand, short supply

Railroads are opening up to public investment

Congestion issues are getting attention – GAO report

Feds will have to pay attention to freight mobility funding – a national concern

Planning For The Future From a Port logistics perspective:

Planned stowage by steamship lines Agile port concept (Direct to Train)

will be difficult to achieve Visibility is key; know what’s coming

at you and when Free-flowing trains to inland

intermodal yards? Eliminates much local switching, frees capacity?

Planning For The Future From a Port funding perspective:

Infrastructure improvements hard to justify if not tied to revenue enhancement

Grant funding is great, but administrative overhead can be onerous

Competing with passenger dollars Funding needs will far outweigh

financial capacity in near future

Questions?